Lol at the stupidity of counting to the exact calorie.
Who gives a fuck, do you take exactly the same amount of steps each day, do you go upstairs the same amount of times, do your stress levels stay exactly the same, does you body temp stay exactly the same every day regardless of the environment?
What a doofus.
On a long enough time line, the aggregate energy expenditure will read pretty much like a straight line as ones behavior does not vary too much. Humans are habitual creatures as are most animals for that matter. Not that this matters because each one of us has a Resting Metabolic Rate and Basal Metabolic Rate anyways. The various equations for these are very good for establishing a baseline calorie control.
We are not concerned with exact numbers as much as we are trying to set a control. By counting calories, you can ensure that you are taking in as many calories as possible and still be in a deficit. Doing so will cause the least potential for any metabolic damage while dieting.
Just guessing will not get you optimal results as your caloric intake will be all over the place, especially for people like me who cook and eat so many different things- from cakes to cookies to pulled pork to Hungarian Beef Stew. Its impossible to estimate accurate calories for something like a Truffle Chocolate Cake that I make. You WILL overstep your caloric limits easily and I like to include these type of foods while getting lean.
Also, if you don`t know how much you can eat approximately, you will not have variables you can easily adjust. Layne Norton talks about this a lot and has a few very good Science based videos regarding variables, such as lower calories by 50-100 and really spurring fat loss where one normally would have plateaued. You can`t take advantage of these things if you are eating all over the map so to speak.
The short answer though is, I love to cook and I love to make calorie dense foods that are impossible to estimate. If I did not count calories, I would probably never be in a deficit. Of course I could try to estimate and I could under eat, but I want to eat as many calories as possible and counting calories allows me to easily do this.
You probably make garbage to eat, so it won`t matter to you one way or the other. I don`t really care what you or anyone does for that matter. Poison yourself with ricin for all I care.