I would certainly give the mental advantage to Spurs this year. Miami was fat and lazy this year, no doubt about it. They lost miller and already, Wade is making excuses why LBJ will leave and Wade woudl love nothing more to LOSE this year - so that next year, when they're .500, it's not his fault. It's all "Hey, we LOST the title last year WITH lebron, so..."
I'm not feeling too good about miami's chances. They'll have younger legs but without the shooting of Miller, without the eyes on the dynasty, with guys protecting their bodies for the contract they're negotiating in 4 weeks... with teh Spurs leaving it ALL on the floor because, well, half of those dudes will probably be retiring in 2 weeks...
Last year I was very confident about Miami's chances of winning it - youth/talent beating better coached old dudes. THis year, Heat can't shoot they're not hungry.... Spurs appreciate where they are, and theyre hungrier than ever. I really HOPE the Heat win, but I wouldn't bet on it.