I got a hunch Germany aren't gonna go far this year. Will likely make it out of the group, but I'd say quarters is about as far as they'll go. If they lose the first game vs. Portugal and the other match in the group doesn't end in a draw, it will be a close call already. Might just turn into a complete and utter disaster.
I know Germany doesn't exactly have a history of good outlooks on World Cups recently (2006: getting slaughtered by Italy during the WC prep and having to question Klinsmann's competence as a manager altogether, 2010: the supposedly single most important player, Michael Ballack, getting injured shortly before the tournament which was pretty much considered the MCA), they always pulled through, hell, even in 2002 they made it to the final with an utterly shitty team - but this year it looks especially dire:
- Lots of key players either are currently injured or have been for most of the season (Schweinsteiger, Neuer, Lahm, Khedira, Klose, Gündogan, the list could go on)
- If they're not injured, they're completely out of form with nothing but lackluster performances in recent games, see Özil the lazy Turk
- Defense is relying on Hummels and Boateng, both of which are solid most of the time but always good for random FUBARs
- Defensive midfield is totally fucked with Khedira out of form (long term injury), Schweinsteiger being injured right now and not exactly on top of his game, and Gündogan out Lahm could play DM (he did a few times at Bayern) but that would take our only consistently competent defender out of position with no substitute
- Only real striker is a then 36 year old Miroslav Klose who has been injured most of the season. Stuff like playing Götze or similar as a False 9 crashed and burned
As far as the winner goes, I'd say never rule out Spain. I'd say it's theirs to lose.
