I agree with 1, 2, 3, and some of 4. The Allies broke the German code relatively early in the war and both sides had technology advantages in certain areas.
Yes, the reason everyone thinks the german troops were superior is because for a long time most of them they had YEARS of combat experience. By the time D-day rolled around, most of those guys were dead on the eastern front and replaced by conscripts or hitler youth, with SS troops and the last of the older experienced guys thrown in to stiffen things up. Their armored forces were superior to anything britain and america could bring to the field until at least 1944, cannot contest that. Their Air Force was battle hardened, though severely outgunned/outmanned they put up a terrific effort despite the odds. On the eastern front, they got with I think 19 miles of Moscow, so yes, they were very close to victory even if they could not have taken the city they could have bypassed it and bombed it and shelled it into a smoking ruin at their leisure.
Hitler did fuck them up badly. Pushing for super weapons and new innovations in a time of dire straits was a huge mistake. Their current model tanks and planes and firearms were without a doubt very much up to par with what the allies had; no need to fix what wasn't broken. The troops themselves were as I said highly experienced and well trained/led soldiers. If they had invaded Britain in strength, Britain would have fallen in a matter of weeks the british forces were pitiful at that point, beaten and using outdated or hastily built equipment. The Royal Navy and RAF were top notch, but the german navy and air force could certainly have held them off long enough to allow troops and tanks to land in good quantity and then it would have been over. German firearms and military organization were top notch at that time- each squad of men had TWO mg34 or mg42 LMG's, with sub machine guns and rifles for the rest of the men. British and american squads of similar size and composition were all rifle armed, with maybe one or two smg's and sometimes an LMG. Did I mention that the LMG's the germans had were far superior to anything else on the battlefield at the time? Two to three times the fire rate of the browning m1919 of the USA and the bren gun (magazine loaded LOL) the brits used. Americans had better rifles though, semi auto and 8 round clips though the germans did bring out such weapons beginning in 1942-3 and they were designed to be better than the american rifles they sought to counter.
Tanks? IF the germans had focussed full time on production of the pzkpfwIV rather than trying to make their armor bigger and better with each radical new plan... They would have wrecked the russian t34 masses. The crews were far better trained and highly ecperienced too. Better 75mm l41 gun in the pz4 as well. Those high velocity AP rounds, cut thru russian steel like cheese for the most part.
Planes? America and UK had the best planes tbh, but the crews were all fresh until they got some time in the air, and the luftwaffe were battle hardened guys who had years of combat flight under their belts dating back to 1935 and the spanish civil war just as the army had. It's a 50/50 until 1944 when better german fighters came out like the late model fw190's. Heavier armaments like quad 20mm cannons would shred everything USA and UK put in the air. Too bad they ran out of good pilots by then. No heavy bomber yes, but the mediums they did have still wreaked havoc curing the blitz and the battle of britain.
And no the blitz was a huge mistake. it lost them the war with britain. focussing on civilian targets when plenty of military targets are still there is a big no no. They fucked up and took vengeance on the brits when they bombed a german city in retaliation for a mistaken bombing of london by a single german bomber crew lost at night. The germans went tunnel vision, and got into a war of attrition they couldnt win with those medium bombers while they were getting pounded by brit and yank heavys on a daily basis. if theyd stuck to RAF bases and the like, it could have been very different. They could have also destroyed the oryal navy by air once theyd dealt with the RAF, both of which were feasible goals in 1941.
lot of mistakes.