Author Topic: 288,000 Jobs Created, Unemployment Drops to 6.1%, & The Dow approaches 17,000  (Read 31055 times)

Soul Crusher

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what numbers are you considering when making the assessment of the state of the nation now as compared to 2008?

Labor force, welfare numbers, food stamps, average wages, cost of living, etc.

The average person is getting FUCKED in Obama's junta

Necrosis

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Labor force, welfare numbers, food stamps, average wages, cost of living, etc.

The average person is getting FUCKED in Obama's junta

unemployment is lower, the stock market is way better, the auto industry is better, you guys just overtook saudi arabia as numero uno for oil production. Your nation is in a better place.

AVXO:

How can you say the US is out of the recession and isn't in a better place? My statement still stands, since he has taken office, regardless of the reasons, the country is in a better space. My inference was that if he is purposely sabotaging the economy(coach) and the US in general he is doing a bad job of that.


syntaxmachine

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LFP hits record low

Huh?

Summer vacation surge, declines soon after.

The data is seasonally adjusted, meaning it controls for such regularities. Therefore, the jobs data reveal the underlying trend to the extent that there is one.

headhuntersix

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unemployment is lower, the stock market is way better, the auto industry is better, you guys just overtook saudi arabia as numero uno for oil production. Your nation is in a better place.

AVXO:

How can you say the US is out of the recession and isn't in a better place? My statement still stands, since he has taken office, regardless of the reasons, the country is in a better space. My inference was that if he is purposely sabotaging the economy(coach) and the US in general he is doing a bad job of that.




If you think anything is better since Obama came in you are a fucking retard. The country is falling apart, Obama is weak, we look weak abroad....gas costs twice as much. Obama is approaching worst president ever territory. He refuses to deal with the border or even go there. We've lost Iraq and are slowly sending troops back there. The recover is weak and the stock market will correct and then we'll all be fucked. Not to mention the attacks this kind of weakness invites. But don't blame Barry....my fucking cat could do better.
L

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Labor force, welfare numbers, food stamps, average wages, cost of living, etc.

The average person is getting FUCKED in Obama's junta

Yeah bro I really can't talk to you on this as you go extreme with the hyperbole and the conversation becomes cartoonish. I was asking coach as a comparison of numbers from 2008/2009 to now

syntaxmachine

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unemployment is lower, the stock market is way better, the auto industry is better, you guys just overtook saudi arabia as numero uno for oil production. Your nation is in a better place.

The country is better off in some respects, worse off in others. In still other respects it isn't clear whether it is worse off or better off.

As far as the labor market goes, don't you know that the official unemployment rate goes down when unemployed persons stop looking for work?

That's why people keep referring to the labor force participation rate -- the ratio of employed and unemployed-but-looking-for-work persons to the adult population. The decline in LPR is often cited as evidence of an unhealthy labor market where unemployed persons are simply giving up.

We can corroborate this claim by comparing LPR to the employment-population ratio, the ratio of employed persons to adult population.

At the beginning of the year, the E-P ratio was about where it was in September 2009, whereas LPR was a few percentage points lower than in September 2009. Since LPR is just the E-P ratio + unemployed-but-looking-for-work persons added to the numerator, the variable responsible for their divergence has to be the unemployed-but-looking-for-work value.

If the decline in this value were due to people becoming employed, the E-P ratio would have gone up -- it didn't. Therefore, the only explanation for the divergence is that unemployed people exited the market entirely over the period -- short-term unemployment is perhaps becoming structural.

Further, we can control for the effects of demography -- old workers retiring can skew LPR and E-P -- by looking at the employment rate for 25-55 year olds (workers in their prime earning years). This rate dropped from ~80% to ~75% from September 2007 to September 2009 and still hasn't recovered. Either these workers all colluded to end their careers and have a welfare-fueled party or otherwise this statistic is indicative of something wrong with the labor market.

Still, there's other data to tempter this negativity, and still more to suggest a quicker-than-expected crescendo to the recovery is on the way -- even if LPR, E-P, and the like don't return to their previous highs achieved during unsustainable, debt-fueled asset bubbles. But you can't be surprised when people assess the labor market negatively -- whatever the official unemployment rate -- when data like the above exists. And that's to say nothing of stagnant wages.

avxo

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AVXO:

How can you say the US is out of the recession and isn't in a better place? My statement still stands, since he has taken office, regardless of the reasons, the country is in a better space. My inference was that if he is purposely sabotaging the economy(coach) and the US in general he is doing a bad job of that.

The answer by syntaxmachine pretty much says what I would say. I don't think that things are as rosy as you make them out to be - or as bleak as headhuntersix makes them out to be. Some things are better that much is true; but many things are worse.

GigantorX

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Huh?

The data is seasonally adjusted, meaning it controls for such regularities. Therefore, the jobs data reveal the underlying trend to the extent that there is one.


Labor Force Participation Rate.

And "seasonally adjusted" is whatever it wants to be, it's in the same dustbin as "Birth-Death Adjustment."

And when it comes to these "Jobs Numbers" it isn't the headline, it's the data contained within that is never reported on by so-called "financial analysts" on CNBC and such. There is the types of jobs being created as opposed to the types that were lost, part time vs full time, wages, hours worked, benefits, what sectors the jobs were in, how many people wanted full time work but had to settle for part time etc. And that is all against the backdrop of under reported inflation. The final nail in the coffin will be amnesty.

Is there a bit more "stability" now? Sure, but it's at the expense of the vast majority of the populations well being. As in, welcome to serfdom.

Just one mans thoughts.

GigantorX

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And when the stock markets are pointed to as a sign that the overall health of the economy is greatly improved I have to chuckle.

6 years and counting of historical action by the Federal Reserve.

Businesses are sitting on historically high levels of cash, it isn't being spent. Why? ZIRP. They can get money for nothing, not spend it on expansion and production but spend it on stock buy backs + M&A.


syntaxmachine

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Labor Force Participation Rate.

I'm aware of what it is and am 'huhing' at your claim that it is at a record low.

GigantorX

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I'm aware of what it is and am 'huhing' at your claim that it is at a record low.

Fantastic!

But you used "huh" and not "uh huh."

Hence the confusion.


Dos Equis

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The fact that the country is in far better shape then when he took office I would say you are incorrect. He is certainly not trying to fuck things up, if you think he is mistakenly doing so then you have an argument.



The national debt was $10 trillion when he took office.  It's now over $17 trillion.  That disaster dwarfs any possible "good" he has done since taking office.  There is no way we can deem our country to be in "far better shape" when our debt has exploded and threatens to cripple us in the future. 

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The national debt was $10 trillion when he took office.  It's now over $17 trillion.  That disaster dwarfs any possible "good" he has done since taking office.  There is no way we can deem our country to be in "far better shape" when our debt has exploded and threatens to cripple us in the future. 
I totally get that part. But is that the only factor in your Matrix when considering the state of the nation. Does nothing else matter? Also, Is there a reason for the debt increase? Why was the spending increased to begin with?


Just asking questions.. Please dont go immature full retard on me...anyone.

Dos Equis

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I totally get that part. But is that the only factor in your Matrix when considering the state of the nation. Does nothing else matter? Also, Is there a reason for the debt increase? Why was the spending increased to begin with?


Just asking questions.. Please dont go immature full retard on me...anyone.

No it's not the only factor we should look at when evaluating the state of the nation, but the debt and debt increase are so bad that they overshadow everything else IMO.  This is a crisis.  And do you recall this?



He is a stone cold hypocrite.  And he's unpatriotic by his own definition. 

The reason for the debt increase is we spend more than we take in.  Government is irresponsible.  Horrible stewards of our money. 

Soul Crusher

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No it's not the only factor we should look at when evaluating the state of the nation, but the debt and debt increase are so bad that they overshadow everything else IMO.  This is a crisis.  And do you recall this?



He is a stone cold hypocrite.  And he's unpatriotic by his own definition. 

The reason for the debt increase is we spend more than we take in.  Government is irresponsible.  Horrible stewards of our money. 

Don't expect a realistic answer from Obama fanatics on this

Archer77

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I totally get that part. But is that the only factor in your Matrix when considering the state of the nation. Does nothing else matter? Also, Is there a reason for the debt increase? Why was the spending increased to begin with?


Just asking questions.. Please dont go immature full retard on me...anyone.

Reread syntax's post.  He explains the situation concisely.
A

GigantorX

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The national debt was $10 trillion when he took office.  It's now over $17 trillion.  That disaster dwarfs any possible "good" he has done since taking office.  There is no way we can deem our country to be in "far better shape" when our debt has exploded and threatens to cripple us in the future.  

Not just the explosion of govt debt at pretty much all levels but the releveraging of consumers as well. That's not even bringing into account all of the interventions the fed has done and continues to do.

The return on this "investment" has been nil.

Dos Equis

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Not just the explosion of govt debt at pretty much all levels but the releveraging of consumers as well. That's not even bringing into account all of the interventions the fed has done and continues to do.

The return on this "investment" has been nil.

Agree.

syntaxmachine

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Fantastic!

But you used "huh" and not "uh huh."

Hence the confusion.

Seeing as LPR isn't anywhere near record lows, I am very confused indeed.

GigantorX

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Seeing as LPR isn't anywhere near record lows, I am very confused indeed.

Depends on what you consider "near."

But more accurately it would be lowest LFPR in close to 4 decades.

240 is Back

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He is a stone cold hypocrite.  And he's unpatriotic by his own definition. 

I am offended by his policies that are hurting the USA.   

As far as getting upset about politicians being hypocrites, lol, well...

Necrosis

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Huh?

The data is seasonally adjusted, meaning it controls for such regularities. Therefore, the jobs data reveal the underlying trend to the extent that there is one.


simple linear regression to eliminate such extraneous variables. However,the underlying trend as you indicate (you only truly touched on jobs, there are far more markers of progress in my eyes) shows an mild improvement and low term data which is less cyclical (as you know stats of this nature probably utilize a lower alpha level to achieve significance) chance and fluctuation exist in small part. With a nebulous complex dynamic systems I think more attention to long term trends is important. I think this harps back to avxo's point of normal cycling of these variables.

I also think the job market numbers are large part due to automation and education. Jobs are scarce, require more education and then more debt. I am not sure how much impact improving economies will be as automation continues to grow. The job issue is epiphenominal.


flipper5470

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Horrible jobs numbers? relative to what exactly? the thrust of the article is that things are improving. Now if you want to argue in what manner and relative to what I am in but we still aren't sure of the economic impact of ACA, nor has it been resoundingly negative. Your comment was hyperbole wing nut stuff.

I don't care what the "thrust of the article" is.... the media coverage of this job's report has been pathetic.....we shed 523k full time jobs and added 788k part time jobs.  How does that net 288k jobs?   By definition, those full time jobs are really 1.5-2 part time jobs.  If anything we barely broke even or lost ground.  So far as the UE rate goes...I put very little stock in that number for a variety of reasons.  The "recovery" from 2008 has been sloooooooooooow and shallow.  As indicated by the LPR....many people have stopped seeking work.  When they do stop...they no longer count as unemployed.  So, getting a job and "quitting" the workforce has the same result, it lowers the UE rate.   Is that really a stat you want to hang your hat on?

Obamacare is a train wreck....the left was warned that it would have a negative impact on full time employment because it created an incentive for part time employment.   We are seeing that now.

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No it's not the only factor we should look at when evaluating the state of the nation, but the debt and debt increase are so bad that they overshadow everything else IMO.  This is a crisis.  And do you recall this?



He is a stone cold hypocrite.  And he's unpatriotic by his own definition. 

The reason for the debt increase is we spend more than we take in.  Government is irresponsible.  Horrible stewards of our money. 
ok

Soul Crusher

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