How many people would have died on both sides if there was no bomb dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki? It would have been many many more. The Japanese were NOWHERE close to surrender or ending their war, they were ready to fight until the end.
You sure about that?
Mokusatsu
Truman, Stalin, Churchill and Chiang Kai-Shek made the Postdam Declaration in July of 1945. The declaration was quite firm:
“We call upon the government of Japan to proclaim now the unconditional surrender of all Japanese armed forces, and to provide proper and adequate assurances of their good faith in such action. The alternative for Japan is prompt and utter destruction.”
For good measure, the Allies dropped leaflets explaining the terms of surrender in Japanese and broadcast them over the radio. Everyone was aware of the terms, and everyone knew the world was waiting for an answer.
In Tokyo, Premier Suzuki was questioned by reporters about Japan’s response. Behind the scenes the military refused “unconditional surrender” on principal, while some believed that Japan could make a land invasion so bloody that the allies would negotiate an armistice on Japan’s terms rather than demand total surrender. Estimates were being drawn: 10,000 aircraft and pilots could be trained for last-ditch kamikaze missions that would have wiped out 400 US transport boats; citizens were being armed with every kind of spare weapon, from swords to farming tools. One high-school girl was handed a leather-crafting awl and told to kill at least a single American soldier with it. The goal was to force the military into killing every man from 15 to 70 and every woman from 17 to 65, who were now elevated from mere citizens into the “Civilian Defense Force” of Japan.
Others, to their credit, saw that this would be madness, and advocated full surrender. The Emperor would eventually agree. But none of them were aware that the US wasn’t planning a land invasion. None of them could have imagined the alternative.
With this all occurring behind the scenes, Suzuki gave a boilerplate answer: “No comment.”
The Japanese verb for withholding comment is mokusatsu(suru), which you could better understand culturally as, “We’ll wait in silence until we can speak with wisdom.” The problem with this answer is that it has a number of connotations, including one that could best be understood as the more dismissive, “We will wait in silence until we can speak about something wise,” more in line with “This doesn’t even merit a response.” Japanese language is vague; the source of the wisdom here is supposed to be implied. Is the wisdom coming from reasoned discussion? Or are you refusing to answer a stupid question?
Tokyo reporters could have gone either way. They decided that the Premier said the Potsdam Declaration was “not worthy of discussion.” Coming from the Premier of the Japanese Government, the Allies saw this as an official refusal of terms. It seemed insane given the state of Japan, but so, too, were kamikaze pilots and an army of teenage girls armed with leather crafting tools. One could easily assume that the entire nation would destroy itself rather than surrender – that was, after all, what it had said for the entire duration of the war.
In Japan, the view is that Suzuki said they were thinking about it.
Hiroshima was bombed within 10 days.
