Paul Tudor Jones movie

[denarii]

Normally hard to find...

[2Thick]

3 of his best quotes IMO:

"Failure was a key element to my life’s journey."

"At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good you are at risk control."

"Every day I assume every position I have is wrong."
Source: Market Wizards

[denarii]

3 of his best quotes IMO:

"Failure was a key element to my life’s journey."

"At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good you are at risk control."

"Every day I assume every position I have is wrong."
Source: Market Wizards

just to be clear his strategy is trading day and night, so his approach suits that time horizon and risks and challenges. different investment techniques require a completely different skill set and approach. the rhino head i posted was in an office of someone who used to work for Tudor Investments.

[2Thick]

Mallaby's book "More Money Than God" has a chapter devoted to him. He's apparently superstitious and a bit of a schmoe - he supposedly owns a pair of sneakers Bruce Willis wore in "Die Hard" that he wears around the office at certain times.  

One of the main things I've learned from such thinking is to ask myself what could be the worse thing that could happen if I'm wrong, and to be prepared for it - whether it be the odd day trade or in the longer term investing that makes up most of my portfolio. Diversification, taking the ego out of it, limiting the amount of $ I use to speculate with, etc. But I generally don't bother with stops for the occasional quick momentum trade, nor do I fool with limit orders unless I happen to be buying or selling something that is very thinly traded for whatever reason.

[denarii]

Mallaby's book "More Money Than God" has a chapter devoted to him. He's apparently superstitious and a bit of a schmoe - he supposedly owns a pair of sneakers Bruce Willis wore in "Die Hard" that he wears around the office at certain times.  

One of the main things I've learned from such thinking is to ask myself what could be the worse thing that could happen if I'm wrong, and to be prepared for it - whether it be the odd day trade or in the longer term investing that makes up most of my portfolio. Diversification, taking the ego out of it, limiting the amount of $ I use to speculate with, etc. But I generally don't bother with stops for the occasional quick momentum trade, nor do I fool with limit orders unless I happen to be buying or selling something that is very thinly traded for whatever reason.

you are either focused on investment or price action he is the latter along with people like steve cohen or lewis bacon and i guess people like bill ackman or warren buffet or carl icahn are archetypal of the former.

[2Thick]

Personally, I'm mostly focused on good investments at a cheap price, and to a lesser extent good investments that are rapidly growing that may not be so cheap. I'll usually buy more as they get even cheaper in corrections / selloffs IF the fundamentals stay strong.

Also focus to a lesser extent on the short side on companies with declining fundamentals or that appear to be outright broken or have flawed business models or be obsolete (Sears, JCP, Herbalife, etc).

I'm about 5-10% focused on short term price action either way - quick, speculative investments / trades - biotechs, rumored M&A targets, activist activity, etc.

And 5% or so on options either as insurance on opposite volatile stock positions or to speculate.

 

[2Thick]

Recently grabbed some Hologic, along with a little US Steel, and nibbles of EXXI, WPX and most recently Intercept Pharma. Also took out a short on IBM a few weeks ago that's done well.

Of course the drillers and oil servicers have been getting smacked, and I lost several grand on GTAT when they announced the BK a few weeks ago. I'd owned $40k of that not so long ago, but luckily I sold most of it once I heard the deal with Apple fell through.

[warez4gold]

paul bought all the physical copies of the film because he didn't like how it turned out. i called pbs last year to see if they still had copies of it and they said they don't.

good film. smart man.

[pissant]

All the mombo jumbo technical shit and this guy isn't even close to the richest men alive.

Richest people alive own businesses, own parts of businesses, or are fundie investors.

Where are all the rich technicians? This is just statistics the majority of technical traders will be poor saps who lose, some will be average , very few will be rich. Compare that to fundamental or value investing and you get the opposite effect.

[pedro01]

just to be clear his strategy is trading day and night, so his approach suits that time horizon and risks and challenges. different investment techniques require a completely different skill set and approach. the rhino head i posted was in an office of someone who used to work for Tudor Investments.

I think you have to be very careful about reading too much into what people like this say:

- Some people are going to float to the top just through sheer luck
- No-one ever thinks luck played a part in their success
- Many of the traders in the original Market Wizards book flopped after the book - they were just at the top at the time & at any time that will occur randomly. We can assume those that flopped after the book was written were amongst the random succeeders
- For those that are successful and fully understand the cause of their success - they are not you and you are not them. Trying to emulate them is futile

[pedro01]

All the mombo jumbo technical shit and this guy isn't even close to the richest men alive.

Richest people alive own businesses, own parts of businesses, or are fundie investors.

Where are all the rich technicians? This is just statistics the majority of technical traders will be poor saps who lose, some will be average , very few will be rich. Compare that to fundamental or value investing and you get the opposite effect.

Technical analysis is nonsense.

But fundamental analysis (a subset of which is value investing) is not the only alternative.

I think "Reflexivity" is much more important and much more valuable to understand.

Most traders looks at the market as a "thing" that is separate from themself.

The reality is that every trader is trying to effectively guess how all of the other traders are going to react and act accordingly. A trader should not think of the market as anything else than a bunch of people trying to do the exact same thing that they are.

So technical analysis, lines on a chart - you cannot deduce anything from them because you are not analyzing how traders will act but lines on a chart. Similarly, fundamental analysis can only help you derive value but that also cannot anticipate other traders actions...

Soros Theory of Reflexivity explains it much better: http://www.forexcrunch.com/george-soros-theory-of-reflexivity/

The market is you and thousands/millions like you. You have to think in those terms. Everything else is nonsense.

[2Thick]

All the mombo jumbo technical shit and this guy isn't even close to the richest men alive.

Richest people alive own businesses, own parts of businesses, or are fundie investors.

Where are all the rich technicians? This is just statistics the majority of technical traders will be poor saps who lose, some will be average , very few will be rich. Compare that to fundamental or value investing and you get the opposite effect.

I'm no expert on Jones's exact methods - IDK how long his average holding time is, how much is in things like commodities futures (something he was always into), how much is in things like emerging markets (where he lost big in '08), how much and how exactly he was short (and what exactly) on financials (where he made big $ during the crash), how diversified he tends to be, etc.


http://www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/tudor+investment+corp/23/

But something I will never do is argue with obvious success. If someone has a longterm track record of success, they probably know what they’re doing. Of course past success does not guarantee future success - and the riskier the endeavor, the greater the chance the success is fleeting.

But those who have averaged 20% or more over a decade or 2 or more cannot just be “lucky”.

Conversely,  I cannot just take the words on blind faith and follow the methods of or invest with just anyone who has the lingo down and throws around big words and makes big claims but doesn’t have a history of reasonable success through good and bad times.

Jim Simons and later DE Shaw pioneered the automated HFT systems that have enabled them to make 35-40% over many years – better than probably all the other hedge fund billionaires and quite a bit better than most. And even they aren’t perfect with the emotional factor taken out.

http://www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/renaissance+technologies/5/



I know a guy in the Dallas area who is younger than me who is worth about a hundred mil and manages billions who specializes in oil and nat gas trading. He doesn’t sit in a room by himself and turn his portfolio over 100% every 30 seconds and go to 100% cash at night or anything – not exactly a “day trader”… but he’s very active and turns the portfolio over quite often.

With that said, he readily admits that he could easily lose everything on any given day. John Arnold played the same game for a few years and used to say the same thing. It made him a multi-billionaire at 35, but he quit before 40 because of the added govt regs getting in the way and making his chosen methods too risky for him.

Personally,  there’s no way I could ever adopt a style of investing / trading that had anywhere near a significant chance of me losing anywhere near everything in a single day. I know that at least one of the guys written about in one of the “Market Wizards” books (whose name escapes me) said that he started out trading and soon lost his entire life savings (something like $10k). He later saved up a similar amount and did it again with similar results, just that it took longer. The third time was the charm, and he held onto his $ and eventually achieved success. No way I could do that to myself either.


People should learn to crawl, then walk, then run their own way once they know enough to make informed decisions. Delusions of grandeur, greed, ego, naivete, etc have taken many a would-be fortune.


I’m happy to do things the way I do them and to have achieved a pretty good level of longterm success by any realistic standards. I’m a big picture guy who’s always  set longterm goals for myself and not been one to get bogged down in little things or the short term. And everything I do is deliberate and done for a definite reason – not just to do it. 95% of what I do I could probably teach to a class of highschool C or better students in a couple of weeks or so...But they'd need to be willing to dig in and do their own research and keep emotions in check like I do.

[pedro01]

Everyone wants to emulate someone else.

As 2Thick says "Of course past success does not guarantee future success" - but that doesn't mean they got there by luck (although it is possible) - but it does mean a lot of time what they did/do cannot be emulated.

There's all sorts of reasons someone's success cannot be emulated, especially by an aspiring retail trader.

I know a guy that worked at a Singapore Bank and retired at 35. He was writing forex barrier options. He made a ton of cash but he could never have done it at home and now he doesn't trade.

There's information advantages that people have. There's also the fact that in the past certain things have worked that don't now or became too competitive.

Sometimes people look into the minutiae of guys like this - wanting to know if he put his underpants on before his socks in the morning in the hope that this will help them get profitable.

I think it's better to tune it all out.