Election 2016

[Primemuscle]

One would think an enlightened progressive like you would be a bit disturbed that the media in this country is no different than the Pravda in the old Soviet Union.

I try not to fret too much about things over which I have no control. I cannot control other people's opinions, like yours here. Actually, I respect other folk's right to an opinion, even when I disagree with it.

[Dos Equis]

Not a bit.

Reagan trailed Carter in October 1980.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_1980

[TuHolmes]

Reagan trailed Carter in October 1980.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_1980

Just saying, this is what it looks like from the polls at the time.

From that Wikipedia article.

 The continuing hostage crisis and the poor economy hurt Carter, and the prospect John B. Anderson running as an independent appealed to around 20% of Americans who saw Carter as a lesser evil to Reagan. As a result, Anderson took a third of Carter's support in the spring, but did not seem to hurt Reagan, despite Anderson being a Republican. Carter would never recover this loss of support, while Reagan would end up peeling around two-thirds of initial Anderson voters. This race remained close until near the end, when Reagan asked Americans if they were better off than they were four years ago. Afterwards Reagan managed to win a huge landslide victory in the general election.[15]

[Dos Equis]

Just saying, this is what it looks like from the polls at the time.

From that Wikipedia article.

 The continuing hostage crisis and the poor economy hurt Carter, and the prospect John B. Anderson running as an independent appealed to around 20% of Americans who saw Carter as a lesser evil to Reagan. As a result, Anderson took a third of Carter's support in the spring, but did not seem to hurt Reagan, despite Anderson being a Republican. Carter would never recover this loss of support, while Reagan would end up peeling around two-thirds of initial Anderson voters. This race remained close until near the end, when Reagan asked Americans if they were better off than they were four years ago. Afterwards Reagan managed to win a huge landslide victory in the general election.[15]

Anderson's support was down to 8-9 percent by October/November. 

Regardless, Trump is no Reagan, so I'm not sure it's a reliable comparison anyway. 

[polychronopolous]

Not a bit.

Go run off and play your Nintendo or something.

Leave us be. The adults are speaking.

[TuHolmes]

Go run off and play your Nintendo or something.

Leave us be. The adults are speaking.

I will play my Nintendo. My PS4 and my Xbox One and my PC too.

Are you offended by the graph?   I didn't make it, I believe it's from Nate Silver's site.

Why does presenting a graph make me not an adult? Are you upset I haven't sent you a battlefield 1 code?

You only need to ask.

[Yamcha]

Nate Silver is an ugly piece of shit. And I'd gladly go to jail for some time just to beat the ever living shit out of his smug little face.

[TuHolmes]

Nate Silver is an ugly piece of shit. And I'd gladly go to jail for some time just to beat the ever living shit out of his smug little face.

That may be true, but are the numbers wrong?

I was like 5 during that election, so I certainly have no basis to say that the "feel" of the campaign was one way or the other.

I can only find data.

Data > opinion.

[James]

‘Ronald’ Trump: Why 2016 Is Looking a Lot Like 1980

"But the truth is that in real time in 1980, Reagan was seen as the outside antiestablishment candidate. He was also seen as less than a serious contender, even when it looked like....


http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/05/24/ronald-trump-why-2016-is-looking-a-lot-like-1980.html

[Yamcha]

That may be true, but are the numbers wrong?

I was like 5 during that election, so I certainly have no basis to say that the "feel" of the campaign was one way or the other.

I can only find data.

Data > opinion.

Nate Silver manipulates data to make it fit his opinions.

"we're going to add +2 to Clinton's numbers because xyz..."

[James]

Reagan was 6% down in October 1980, and won by a landslide!


October 1980

Carter 45%
Reagan 39%




Election Results:

Carter 41%
Reagan 51%




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_1980

[TuHolmes]

I posted this before.

Everyone ignored it.

The continuing hostage crisis and the poor economy hurt Carter, and the prospect John B. Anderson running as an independent appealed to around 20% of Americans who saw Carter as a lesser evil to Reagan. As a result, Anderson took a third of Carter's support in the spring, but did not seem to hurt Reagan, despite Anderson being a Republican. Carter would never recover this loss of support, while Reagan would end up peeling around two-thirds of initial Anderson voters.

Does this exist in today's election?

I contend the circumstances are not the same as 1980.

[James]

I posted this before.

Everyone ignored it.

The continuing hostage crisis and the poor economy hurt Carter, and the prospect John B. Anderson running as an independent appealed to around 20% of Americans who saw Carter as a lesser evil to Reagan. As a result, Anderson took a third of Carter's support in the spring, but did not seem to hurt Reagan, despite Anderson being a Republican. Carter would never recover this loss of support, while Reagan would end up peeling around two-thirds of initial Anderson voters.

Does this exist in today's election?

I contend the circumstances are not the same as 1980.

The fact is Reagan was down by 6% at one month out.

[polychronopolous]

I will play my Nintendo. My PS4 and my Xbox One and my PC too.

Are you offended by the graph?   I didn't make it, I believe it's from Nate Silver's site.

Why does presenting a graph make me not an adult? Are you upset I haven't sent you a battlefield 1 code?

You only need to ask.

And there again just like I was telling 240....a tightening race with the Republican eventually pulling away after a strong final debate performance.

"Not a bit"?

No similarities whatsoever?

And I pretty much hold onto every bit of video game knowledge you've posted on here like it's Gospel even though I don't play a tenth as much as I did in my teens. Usually I'll get hyped up big time for a new, highly rated game, spend a couple weeks on it then it begins to collect dust.

It's still interesting to read about all the improvements and current trends in the industry.

[TuHolmes]

The fact is Reagan was down by 6% at one month out.

Is that true?

In how many polls?

One? Two? Ten?

The graph I showed has the outlier but it shows median was higher for Reagan. That's all I'm saying. If it ends up like 1980, more power to you, but I don't see the situation as similar.

And there again just like I was telling 240....a tightening race with the Republican eventually pulling away after a strong final debate performance.

"Not a bit"?

No similarities whatsoever?

And I pretty much hold onto every bit of video game knowledge you've posted on here like it's Gospel even though I don't play a tenth as much as I did in my teens. Usually I'll get hyped up big time for a new, highly rated game, spend a couple weeks on it then it begins to collect dust.

It's still interesting to read about all the improvements and current trends in the industry.

The difference the high amount of support that the 3rd party took away and then gave back to Reagan.

I'm saying that from an overall election, they are not the same.

The graph shows what it shows.

Is it a lie?

[polychronopolous]

Is that true?

In how many polls?

One? Two? Ten?

The graph I showed has the outlier but it shows median was higher for Reagan. That's all I'm saying. If it ends up like 1980, more power to you, but I don't see the situation as similar.

The difference the high amount of support that the 3rd party took away and then gave back to Reagan.

I'm saying that from an overall election, they are not the same.

The graph shows what it shows.

Is it a lie?

Well since you seem dead set on over analyzing my offhanded comment...

I simply stated that Trump's campaign was "reminiscent of Reagan in 1980"

reminiscent definition = adj. awaking memories of something similar

There is similarity. Eccentric Republican candidate polls closely until a strong final debate then pulls away.

Then you come in from out of nowhere like a wannabe hardass...."Not at all"   

I realize gamers are notorious for ingesting massive amounts of adrenaline fatiguing liquids such as Mountain Dew during marathon sessions which can make you a little cantankerous at times but seriously bro, you need to calm down. 

[Yamcha]

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-poll/trump-holds-on-to-1-point-lead-as-debate-sparks-fly/

One of the most accurate polls from last election.

[Las Vegas]

Bunch of shifty micks at Paddy Power have already paid on Hillary.

[TuHolmes]

Well since you seem dead set on over analyzing my offhanded comment...

I simply stated that Trump's campaign was "reminiscent of Reagan in 1980"

reminiscent definition = adj. awaking memories of something similar

There is similarity. Eccentric Republican candidate polls closely until a strong final debate then pulls away.

Then you come in from out of nowhere like a wannabe hardass...."Not at all"   

I realize gamers are notorious for ingesting massive amounts of adrenaline fatiguing liquids such as Mountain Dew during marathon sessions which can make you a little cantankerous at times but seriously bro, you need to calm down. 

First, let me say that I'm sorry for the inference that I was trying to be a hard ass... I was not.

So for that, if you took it negatively, I sincerely apologize, it was not my intent.

I was just showing where the polling numbers did not equate to the similarity in my mind. According to the poll averages on the days in question, if they are accurate, show where Reagan had a huge bump after his convention and Carter "didn't recover".

I do not feel that I am overly (or even a little) excited about this election.
As I've said before, I was so young in 1980 that I certainly do not know anything about the tone of the election at the time, nor do I claim to have a grasp of it.

I am just using the data I see.
If the data has been manipulated, then that's sad.

My candidate will surely not win, but if we can make some strides into breaking the two party system, I will, at that point, be overjoyed.

[Dos Equis]

Link to third debate:

[polychronopolous]

First, let me say that I'm sorry for the inference that I was trying to be a hard ass... I was not.

So for that, if you took it negatively, I sincerely apologize, it was not my intent.

I was just showing where the polling numbers did not equate to the similarity in my mind. According to the poll averages on the days in question, if they are accurate, show where Reagan had a huge bump after his convention and Carter "didn't recover".

I do not feel that I am overly (or even a little) excited about this election.
As I've said before, I was so young in 1980 that I certainly do not know anything about the tone of the election at the time, nor do I claim to have a grasp of it.

I am just using the data I see.
If the data has been manipulated, then that's sad.

My candidate will surely not win, but if we can make some strides into breaking the two party system, I will, at that point, be overjoyed.

No I totally understand.

This election has gotten me totally stressed out myself.

Find myself attacking bros on here I genuinely admire on here at times.

The sooner November 8th can be over with the better!

[Dos Equis]

November 9 is going to be a dark day in America.  One one hand, if Hillary wins the millions of irredeemable deplorables are going to be ready to revolt.  On the other hand, if Hillary wins the millions of Trump haters will be frothing at the mouth (even more than they are now).  Either way, further divisiveness and polarization is coming.   

[Primemuscle]

Nate Silver is an ugly piece of shit. And I'd gladly go to jail for some time just to beat the ever living shit out of his smug little face.

Has it ever occurred to you that you are a big talker, sort of like Trump.

[Primemuscle]

And there again just like I was telling 240....a tightening race with the Republican eventually pulling away after a strong final debate performance.

"Not a bit"?

No similarities whatsoever?

And I pretty much hold onto every bit of video game knowledge you've posted on here like it's Gospel even though I don't play a tenth as much as I did in my teens. Usually I'll get hyped up big time for a new, highly rated game, spend a couple weeks on it then it begins to collect dust.

It's still interesting to read about all the improvements and current trends in the industry.

Where or not Trump's debate performance was strong is debatable. There are many who disagree with this line of thinking.

[Primemuscle]

November 9 is going to be a dark day in America.  One one hand, if Hillary wins the millions of irredeemable deplorables are going to be ready to revolt.  On the other hand, if Hillary wins the millions of Trump haters will be frothing at the mouth (even more than they are now).  Either way, further divisiveness and polarization is coming.   

Too much doom and gloom. This election is a total circus. Usually people feel pretty "up" after the circus.