Always interesting to look and observe at the BTC to ETH price ratio. You will see ETH continues to decline. (Had a little pop on ETF hope, which turns out to be a real dud, and now has resumed its continued downward trend).
Eth is now down 24% to BTC since the beginning of the year, and this is likely to continue. So we might well be looking at down 35-50% BTC by year end.
Always interesting to look back and see how things turned out.
At the time I wrote this, the Eth to BTC ratio was around 0.055 (ie - one eth bought you 0.055 of a BTC). Now that ratio is 0.043). Eth was already down 24% to BTC over the year at that time. It's now down 33%, and is at a year to date, one year, 2 year, and 3 year, low to BTC in comparative value.
So, we have now are touching the bottom end of my 35-50% decline prediction, passing a 30% decline, and as I said, I expect that decline to increase over time.
It should now be very obvious to all that we are in the "1 step forwards, 2 steps back" pattern for Eth, with no end in sight which I can realistically foresee.
I could certainly imagine a scenario where all "crypto" sharply drops for a period of time (with BTC dropping the least) as well as one where BTC sharply rises (with Eth being left behind and rising far less that BTC). Both scenarios would of course widen the BTC / Eth ratio decline if this was to occur.
Either way, whether this "slow death" of ETH continues just a as a slow bleed or whether its decline curve starts to accelerate at some point is not yet clear, but what I would say is to move your remaining value of any Eth into BTC if you are looking for long term store of value, and into Sol if you want some exposure to de-gen speculation further on down the infinitely dilutive spectrum of shitcoins.
Obsidian - we are all here to ultimately help each other, and I know you are a smart guy. Why not just DCA Eth to BTC a little each day/week, to at least balance out your exposure not to mention salvage what you have? (I know you mentioned tax, but I still think ultimately you should consider, and a smart guy like you should easily be able out to figure out a way to do this which does not result in your money being stolen).
This may be one of this "rip off the band-aid" moments - you know you need to do it, and it's gonna hurt a little either way you do it, fast or slow.
We all want to be here in 5-10 year confidently gloating about our BTC value in unison, not telling stories of regrets and shitcoin lessons learned, "coulda, woulda, shoulda", etc, commiserating each other on losses, and then having me pull up this post as a quote writing about "told you so" and "hope lessons have been learned..." etc.
