Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[gib]

Well, Eth has had another downward week against BTC, this time down 3.8% to BTC over the week, and hitting a new 3 year low to BTC of .039 BTC to 1 Eth.

7.92% down over the month.
20.16% down over last 6 months.
34.45% down over last year....

Of course I wished it could be so easy that every alt coin buyer makes money, but it is not that easy. The reality is that there is a finite amount of wealth in the world, and yet an infinite number of alts which can be created. So, we really need to think this through to its logical conclusions. United (with Bitcoin) we thrive, divided (with shitcoins), we fall. Think about it my fellow GetBiggers, Bitcoiners, and Shitcoiners.

On a different note, is anyone investing into China stocks? Hell of a rally underway...

[gib]

There may be one more low for ETH/BTC but it won't last long. You are basically marking the low though for ETH/BTC and posting that people swap ETH for BTC when they should be doing exactly the opposite.

Well, Flex, you were right about the first part of your prediction "There may be one more low for ETH/BTC...". So well done on that at least because ETH did indeed hit yet another low after you posted this.

Whether the remainder of what you wrote will be right remains to be seen. Time will tell...

In my view, it would take a brave man to sell BTC and instead buy ETH right now. If that is your view go ahead - I dare you...

As for buying shitcoins right now, I wouldn't even call that brave - just naive, pigheaded, obstinate, foolish, misguided, and stupid...

[Flexacon]

Well, Flex, you were right about the first part of your prediction "There may be one more low for ETH/BTC...". So well done on that at least because ETH did indeed hit yet another low after you posted this.

Whether the remainder of what you wrote will be right remains to be seen. Time will tell...

In my view, it would take a brave man to sell BTC and instead buy ETH right now. If that is your view go ahead - I dare you...

As for buying shitcoins right now, I wouldn't even call that brave - just naive, pigheaded, obstinate, foolish, misguided, and stupid...

By this "There may be one more low for ETH/BTC..." I meant more of a serious low.

Structurally there is a possibility for BTC to drop to low 40,000s and ETH would drop to 1,300. That would be the type of ETH/BTC low which I would call the bottom.

ETH/BTC is currently 0.039 so I can see it going as low as 0.03, but swapping BTC for ETH anywhere between 0.03 and 0.04 will give you better returns by late 2025.

As for shitcoins, well I'm partnered up with a doxxed US registered company with their own blockchain and I have access to plenty of insider information regarding shit coin deals if I wanted to use it..

[gib]

By this "There may be one more low for ETH/BTC..." I meant more of a serious low.

Structurally there is a possibility for BTC to drop to low 40,000s and ETH would drop to 1,300. That would be the type of ETH/BTC low which I would call the bottom.

ETH/BTC is currently 0.039 so I can see it going as low as 0.03, but swapping BTC for ETH anywhere between 0.03 and 0.04 will give you better returns by late 2025.

As for shitcoins, well I'm partnered up with a doxxed US registered company with their own blockchain and I have access to plenty of insider information regarding shit coin deals if I wanted to use it..

Hmm - well being 35% down to BTC iin just the last year, for a coin many expected to outperform BTC this cycle is in may view a pretty serious low. Dropping another 25%-30% to BTC would be terribly disappointing for any ETH holder, but I also expect this will happen over time, if not in this cycle, then definitely during the course of our next one.

As for your comments on access to insider info, anyone considering doing this should be very careful. If you are in the US, this is indeed the stuff the SEC love going after. Personally, I would never trade on inside info, because despite being very profitable, the risks are not worth it (even though I am not in the US). (But well noted, you are not saying you would use such info - just that you have access to it).

[obsidian]

Hmm - well being 35% down to BTC iin just the last year, for a coin many expected to outperform BTC this cycle is in may view a pretty serious low. Dropping another 25%-30% to BTC would be terribly disappointing for any ETH holder, but I also expect this will happen over time, if not in this cycle, then definitely during the course of our next one.

As for your comments on access to insider info, anyone considering doing this should be very careful. If you are in the US, this is indeed the stuff the SEC love going after. Personally, I would never trade on inside info, because despite being very profitable, the risks are not worth it (even though I am not in the US). (But well noted, you are not saying you would use such info - just that you have access to it).

I posted on September 25, 2024 that the ETH / BTC ratio might worsen for a few more weeks. I also anticipated that you would post about it - every day if needed. See quote below.

The ETH / BTC ratio might worsen for a few more weeks. I anticipate that you'll be posting about it. I personally think the ETH / BTC ratio will eventually improve in the favor of ETH, as its done before. But time will tell - we'll see what happens. I won't be posting about this until / if we see a clear reversal trend.

Are you trying to convince ETH holders to convert to BTC when ETH has retraced this much? That would be foolish, especially for those that have to pay capital gains taxes.

I am not really impressed with Bitcoin as a blockchain. It's fundamentals sucks when you consider the economical viability of mining is a dead end. It currently costs $74,000 to mine 1 BTC. But to buy it costs $61,000. That's a $13,000 difference! Why would anyone mine BTC for months at a time when you're better off buying it?!

The Ethereum fundamentals are much better. It dominates DEFI and the stablecoin sector, the inflation has come down again. It's under 0.5% which is lower than Bitcoin's current 0.83%. And ETH stakers don't face the problem Bitcoin miners face.

I told you let's wait 2-10 years. We'll see then how Bitcoin faired compared to ETH.

Look at the historical ETH / BTC ratios. In 2017 it was a lot lower than it is now and look how it gained ground against BTC.

Investors are uncertain about the regulatory issues DEFI might face after the US election. I personal think the US will matter less and less as time goes on. The US is headed for bankruptcy. So that has a dampening effect on smart contract chains like Ethereum, Solana, etc.

Bitcoin mining - already facing profitability issues, will have even bigger problems if the cost of energy goes through the roof due to the Iran / Israel tensions.

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/10/01/bitcoin-mining-profitability-fell-for-third-straight-month-in-september-jpmorgan/

Bitcoin Mining Profitability Fell for Third Straight Month in September: JPMorgan
Daily block reward gross profit fell to the lowest "on recent record" last month, the report said.

- Daily mining revenue and gross profit fell for a third consecutive month in September, the report said.
- The bank noted that the network hashrate rose 2% from August.
- Daily block reward gross profit fell to the lowest "on recent record" in September, the bank said.

[Mayday]

So what do you think will happen to BTC price if the ME escalates slightly?

Then what do you thi k happens to BTC price if WWIII breaks out?

[gib]

Good news - another country tax exempt for BTC. (Also possibly covers certain type of alts).

https://beincrypto.com/uae-new-tax-exemption-crypto-boom/

[Flexacon]

Good news - another country tax exempt for BTC. (Also possibly covers certain type of alts).

https://beincrypto.com/uae-new-tax-exemption-crypto-boom/

It's been capital gains tax exempt forever. Loads of crypto folks spend time out in Dubai to meet capital gains tax exemptions and then go home.

Transactions/payments in crypto are now gonna be tax exempt too.

[French]

Are you all-in in Kaspa or do you wait the
end of the conflict to do it ?

[Mayday]

So many plebs believe war is bullish 😂

We are pre-war……

Want to know what war is bullish for? The US debt payback 😉 

Only 4 weeks left until we know whether there will be a climate lockdown due to a nuclear war or not.

[obsidian]

So many plebs believe war is bullish 😂

We are pre-war……

Want to know what war is bullish for? The US debt payback 😉 

Only 4 weeks left until we know whether there will be a climate lockdown due to a nuclear war or not.

Looks like its Rektober, not Uptober 

[SouJerz]

Why is $MSTR at an all time high and Bitcoin isn’t really close to its all time high?

[Flexacon]

Why is $MSTR at an all time high and Bitcoin isn’t really close to its all time high?

They are pursuing becoming a bitcoin bank. It popped up on my tradfi timeline that doesn't include any crypto stuff so I guess it's pretty big news.

[gib]

A few quick comments.

Re MSTR, remember MayDay's predictions of doom and gloom when I mentioned that MSTR was on of my biggest stock buys during the initial covid sell-off where I loaded up on stocks? That one ended with "well time will tell". And indeed, time has told...

As to how MSTR correlates to BTC, due to its borrowings, it is a leveraged play on BTC, and so has more on the upside (and on the downside potentially). Also, due to its borrowings, it has bond-like features, so again its price can be amplified on top of any marco news which impacts interest rate expectations.

As for ambitions of a Bitcoin bank, yes, that also drove price - and note, its not a "Doge", or "Dog Wif Hat", or "Etherium" bank, Its Bitcoin! And Bitcoin only.

[Mayday]

A few quick comments.

Re MSTR, remember MayDay's predictions of doom and gloom when I mentioned that MSTR was on of my biggest stock buys during the initial sell-off? That one ended with "well time will tell". And indeed, time has told.

As to how MSTR correlates to BTC, due to its borrowings, it is a leveraged play on BTC, and so has more on the upside (and on the downside potentially). Also, due to its borrowings, it has bond-like features, so again its price can be amplified on top of any marco news which impacts interest rate expectations.

As for ambitions of a Bitcoin bank, yes, that also drove price - and note, its not a "Doge", or "Dog Wif Hat", or "Etherium" bank, Its Bitcoin! And Bitcoin only.

Yes, time will tell. They survived 2022.

S&P well above ATH
Gold well above ATH
Property well above ATH

Anyone who bought those in 2021 are in a very nice profitable position.

Bitcoin if you bought near peak in 2021 you are underwater…….but nobody wants to talk about that 😀

I have my timings and prices, all easy for me. I’ve been long the S&P for ages while Everyone said crash or sideways. What will be interesting is if the S&P outperforms BTC from the 2021 peak 👀

[gib]

Bitcoin if you bought near peak in 2021 you are underwater…….but nobody wants to talk about that 😀

I am happy to talk about it, and indeed, as I have said before, a person would have had to be either an absolute moron, or incredibly unlucky, to make their entire BTC investment at the exact top of the last cycle. But even if you did, if you just hodl, you will be fine with time, just like anyone who bought the peak in any prior BTC cycle. What we should all be doing, and should have been doing in the past, is just DCAing into BTC and Hodling all the way from below 5k when this thread started. Not hard to do.

On a related note, for those interested i MSTR, here is a great which takes the view that MSTR may become the ultimate short squeeze...

i=23joSYDMh5sHuKmn

[SouJerz]

A few quick comments.

Re MSTR, remember MayDay's predictions of doom and gloom when I mentioned that MSTR was on of my biggest stock buys during the initial covid sell-off where I loaded up on stocks? That one ended with "well time will tell". And indeed, time has told...

As to how MSTR correlates to BTC, due to its borrowings, it is a leveraged play on BTC, and so has more on the upside (and on the downside potentially). Also, due to its borrowings, it has bond-like features, so again its price can be amplified on top of any marco news which impacts interest rate expectations.

As for ambitions of a Bitcoin bank, yes, that also drove price - and note, its not a "Doge", or "Dog Wif Hat", or "Etherium" bank, Its Bitcoin! And Bitcoin only.

I think Mayday wanted to say “Inside you are two wolves one is wrong and the other is wrong too”

But thanks for the explanation Gib and the advice to scoop up MSTR I have a couple shares myself.  Back to those two wrong wolves though.  Enjoy your day folks!   ANDREW JACKED FOR MR. O!!!

[Mayday]

I am happy to talk about it, and indeed, as I have said before, a person would have had to be either an absolute moron, or incredibly unlucky, to make their entire BTC investment at the exact top of the last cycle. But even if you did, if you just hodl, you will be fine with time, just like anyone who bought the peak in any prior BTC cycle. What we should all be doing, and should have been doing in the past, is just DCAing into BTC and Hodling all the way from below 5k when this thread started. Not hard to do.

On a related note, for those interested i MSTR, here is a great which takes the view that MSTR may become the ultimate short squeeze...

i=23joSYDMh5sHuKmn

It’s an inconvenient truth to which retail’s only response is ‘just HoDL and it’ll be fine’. The masses in 2021 were told to DCA and HOdL. It’s now 4yrs later and price is underwater. Why, When other classes are well into ATH territory?

Nobody bothers to ask why Bitcoin is suddenly behind. This was the fastest growing class and after a decade of waiting for ETFs, it’s underwater from its peak 4yrs ago. The response is always the same, just ignore it and it’ll be fine 🤔

It still remains 17.5k to 76k then bearish as the best call out there. 3yrs of track history, pretty good. Meanwhile I’ve been long the S&P for ages when everyone said crash or sideways. Again, pretty damn good and to get both right where they conflict is one of the best calls out there.

I know the roadmap ahead, the timing and I see what structurally changed. It’s all going according to plan so I dunno what to say 🤷

MSTR you don’t short until the proper bear market.

[gib]

It’s an inconvenient truth to which retail’s only response is ‘just HoDL and it’ll be fine’. The masses in 2021 were told to DCA and HOdL. It’s now 4yrs later and price is underwater. Why, When other classes are well into ATH territory?

Nobody bothers to ask why Bitcoin is suddenly behind. This was the fastest growing class and after a decade of waiting for ETFs, it’s underwater from its peak 4yrs ago. The response is always the same, just ignore it and it’ll be fine 🤔

It still remains 17.5k to 76k then bearish as the best call out there. 3yrs of track history, pretty good. Meanwhile I’ve been long the S&P for ages when everyone said crash or sideways. Again, pretty damn good and to get both right where they conflict is one of the best calls out there.

I know the roadmap ahead, the timing and I see what structurally changed. It’s all going according to plan so I dunno what to say 🤷

MSTR you don’t short until the proper bear market.

A few comments. With regard to your comments on the S&P, MSTR has massively outperformed the S&P, and I think each and every single S&P stock. That is quite something.

Buying BTC at any time is a good time, as BTC will rise for ever against fiat. (Of course, if you don't believe that, then that's a whole new discussion).

I have explained many times, I believe the vast majority of people are kidding themselves if they believe they can successfully time the markets, especially consistently long term. If we could, we would all be infinitely wealth, but of course we can't, much we we think we can. There is only a finite amount of wealth, and for every short term winning trade, there has to be a loser.

if you were told to invest all your money into BTC at a time of its last peak, you were either incredibly unlucky, and/or foolish for following such advice. Just DCA in over time, zoom out, and chill...

Anyone who started DCAing at the exact last peak of BTC will be way up now.

[gib]

How did Eth lose its way? Great article here, but essentially they tried to be a jack of all trades and ended of becoming a master of none, losing the store of money narrative to Bitcoin, and the faster throughput to Solana and others...

https://www.coindesk.com/opinion/2024/10/11/has-ethereum-lost-its-way/

[gib]

On a related note, total hash rate of BTC is close to to a record high ever. And indeed, even some top miners are deciding not just to hodl BTC they have mined, but indeed also to further buy BTC with any cash that have.

We can see that the BTC mining cost has closely correlated to the BTC price over time- see for example here: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost

Right now the market price of a coin is a touch below the cost to mine it, so this will both drive mining efficiency, but also bodes well for price rising over time to match or exceed the cost of production.

[obsidian]

On a related note, total hash rate of BTC is close to to a record high ever. And indeed, even some top miners are deciding not just to hodl BTC they have mined, but indeed also to further buy BTC with any cash that have.

We can see that the BTC mining cost has closely correlated to the BTC price over time- see for example here: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost

Right now the market price of a coin is a touch below the cost to mine it, so this will both drive mining efficiency, but also bodes well for price rising over time to match or exceed the cost of production.

I would not call $15k a touch below - which it currently is. I've been watching the price difference the past 6 months and the cost to mine 1 BTC has been anywhere from $10,000 - $30,000 more than buying 1 BTC during that period.

Miners are buying BTC because they are losing mining it. But without mining BTC stops working because transactions need to be confirmed. Bitcoin will never stop as long as there are individuals willing to mine it. But what will happen is mining will centralize more making Bitcoin's security model centralized. It's also vulnerable to energy supply issues because so much energy is required to maintain the hash rate.

For now, this won't be an issue. But I see it becoming a problem 16-24 years from now when miner yields will be 1/16th to 1/64th what they are now. Transaction fees would have to make up the difference to keep the network security high. But if BTC is a store of value and you're supposed to hold it, where will these transactions come from?

[obsidian]

How did Eth lose its way? Great article here, but essentially they tried to be a jack of all trades and ended of becoming a master of none, losing the store of money narrative to Bitcoin, and the faster throughput to Solana and others...

https://www.coindesk.com/opinion/2024/10/11/has-ethereum-lost-its-way/

Competition is good. Bitcoin went through an awkward, growing pain phase as well in the past. In 2017 Ethereum outperformed BTC dramatically for some time.

I am happy to see the ETH inflation coming down again. It's now at 0.25% for the past 7 days, and 0.36% the past 30 days. Inflation peaked around 0.6% after the Dencun upgrade which lowered ETH fees in response to Solana, Avalanche and other chains with low fees. This indicates that the inflation has been trending down and transaction volumes have been up.

https://ultrasound.money/

Ethereum could very well go deflationary again even with the cheap fees. Note that Bitcoin's current inflation is 0.83% and Solana's is around 6-7%. So Ethereum's inflation is low in comparison. Binance BNB has a deflation narrative as well and might be reduced to around 100 million BNB in time.

Solana has a lot of bot trading and the actual transaction speeds are exaggerated. It bogs down or grinds to a halt under certain conditions. The computing and storage requirements for Solana is also extreme. The Solana community keeps criticizing Ethereum's L2 strategy but behind the scenes they are working on their own L2 plans. Only they call them "Network Extensions".

A lot of research has gone into maintaining decentralization and security and improving transaction speed. The reality is there is no easy solution for that. If Solana claims ultra fast transaction speeds it means they are compromising somewhere else.

Solana did great earlier in 2024 because it crashed from $259 down to $8 during the FTX collapse. It turned out to not be a total scam and congrats on the recovery. It still has a way to go to reach ATH prices. But same goes for ETH. We know how fast these chain prices can go up and down. Just a few months ago ETH was over $4K.

Time will tell. I am interested to see what happens in the next 2-10 years.

[Mayday]

I would not call $15k a touch below - which it currently is. I've been watching the price difference the past 6 months and the cost to mine 1 BTC has been anywhere from $10,000 - $30,000 more than buying 1 BTC during that period.

Miners are buying BTC because they are losing mining it. But without mining BTC stops working because transactions need to be confirmed. Bitcoin will never stop as long as there are individuals willing to mine it. But what will happen is mining will centralize more making Bitcoin's security model centralized. It's also vulnerable to energy supply issues because so much energy is required to maintain the hash rate.

For now, this won't be an issue. But I see it becoming a problem 16-24 years from now when miner yields will be 1/16th to 1/64th what they are now. Transaction fees would have to make up the difference to keep the network security high. But if BTC is a store of value and you're supposed to hold it, where will these transactions come from?

As Bitcoin becomes more and more centralised, funny how the decentralised, freedom narratives vanished.

Nobody gives a shit as long as price goes up.

Once Bitcoin is centrally controlled, cost to mine and the price itself can be fixed which will solve the issues you bring up.

The energy questions are fair because incoming regulations are going to limit our access to free green energy. That’s a more interesting discussion because you aren’t capped by price but simply allocation which means the only advancement to mine more is tech increases. Hash rate would then reflect the tech level rather than how many CPUs one can afford. That’s pretty cool to ponder actually 🤔

FWIW I have heard home battery size will be included in our home solar allocation. If true, it’s an example of how govts are capping our consumption in an effort to force tech to become more efficient.

[Lartinos]

https://dailyhodl.com/2024/10/14/man-sues-city-council-for-647000000-for-blocking-him-from-digging-up-old-hard-drive-with-bitcoin-report/