Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Flexacon]

I added here. My target was -89% which was still up from my entry so I added.

We are still in my event window of Jan-Apr 2025. We have a world tariff war but I am looking for 1-2 more events to occur in this window.

If something occurs, we could get a savage 2020 type sell off. I’ll hedge my bets.

Maybe, but most of the pain has been felt already.

77k looks to be the BTC bottom although a flash crash down sub 70K could happen soon.

All depends on the SPX. If it doesn't recover from here then another 10% dump might be on the cards, but we'll get an epic V shaped recovery after.

Either way long term things look set to be really bullish.

[Mayday]

Perhaps. Everyone calling the bottom right now.

Meanwhile Gold holding my correlation. If true = disinflation signal. Bonds down, commodities down.

[SouJerz]

88,406.00  are we still playing this fun game?

KEEP STACKING SATOSHIS!!!

[BattleThong]

Is this realistic?

Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin at $110K Soon
Bitcoin's Impending Impact on Markets
Historical Trends Suggest Further Growth
What to Know:
Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin reaching $110K, exceeding past peaks.
Predicted price surpasses $70K concerns in near term.
Market dynamics cast potential influence on Bitcoin's trajectory.
Bitcoin Predicted to Reach $110K, Surpassing $70K Concerns
Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin at $110K Soon
Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, has projected that Bitcoin will ascend to $110,000 within the near future. This trend signifies a shift in market sentiment and potential resilience in the face of past volatility. Hayes' forecast contrasts previous apprehensions of a downturn towards $70,000.
"What I mean is that the price is more likely to hit $110k than $76.5k next. If we hit $110k, then it's yachtzee time and we ain't looking back until $250k." - Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder, BitMEX

[Flexacon]

Maybe, but most of the pain has been felt already.

77k looks to be the BTC bottom although a flash crash down sub 70K could happen soon.

All depends on the SPX. If it doesn't recover from here then another 10% dump might be on the cards, but we'll get an epic V shaped recovery after.

Either way long term things look set to be really bullish.

Another 10% dump in play, but bitcoin showing surprising strength. Weekend will be interesting.

[Flexacon]

Crypto dumping which probably means another leg down for the SPX. 4800 looks the level there.

Death cross for bitcoin too which for btc typically means a quick dump and then a nice pump. Knife catchers and leverage boys will be out in force. I'll be buying Elons Kekius Maximus

[Mayday]

Another 10% dump in play, but bitcoin showing surprising strength. Weekend will be interesting.

The blue line of purchasing. Event window till end of April matches cycle timing points to lower.

Last big drop was 14.5-19-24.4 then snagged lower to 27.4 before up.

I’d Ponder who is stronger —> Trump’s objective vs Retail attitude.

S&P to 4,400 + 3rd event in the Event window in April. That’s when I think Retail flip bearish.

Make it look like the bottom is falling out. -27% drop is no issue. I haven’t added to my ETF yet, I’ll wait.

[Mayday]

Crypto dumping which probably means another leg down for the SPX. 4800 looks the level there.

Death cross for bitcoin too which for btc typically means a quick dump and then a nice pump. Knife catchers and leverage boys will be out in force. I'll be buying Elons Kekius Maximus

I bet that 69k now suddenly making more sense 😉

The elephant in the room for ETH has always been this.  With so many lines getting blown through, 0.017 is really the last one left.

[gib]

Well, and exactly as I predicted, ETH has hit a new 5 year low against BTC.

ETH is now down 60% to BTC over the year, 15% over 5 years, and now even down over 10 years (down 33%).

This decline of ETH to BTC will continue, for obvious reasons.

I don't know how many times I have said it, but I will say it again to anyone new here. Bitcoin is not "crypto". Its fundamental to learn, understand, and act on, the difference.

[loco]

Well, and exactly as I predicted, ETH has hit a new 5 year low against BTC.

ETH is now down 60% to BTC over the year, 15% over 5 years, and now even down over 10 years (down 33%).

This decline of ETH to BTC will continue, for obvious reasons.

I don't know how many times I have said it, but I will say it again to anyone new here. Bitcoin is not "crypto". Its fundamental to learn, understand, and act on, the difference.

BTC not looking great either.  It's pretty much back down to where it was this time last year.

[Mayday]

BTC not looking great either.  It's pretty much back down to where it was this time last year.

I had ETH bottoming in May and/or Nov.

ETH monthly has tagged. 2wk almost there. 1wk has a few moves left. This “should” be a bottoming occurring but it doesn’t look in yet to me.

I don’t like that everyone loves it and we didn’t test 0.017. 22 days left to pummel it down if it’s going to happen.

[SouJerz]

 🤔

[Flexacon]

🤔

Possible forced liquidations.

Fun times.

Bite the pillow and let the good times roll :

[French]

All-in Solana, the only one web3 company making revenues

[Mayday]

Possible forced liquidations.

Fun times.

Bite the pillow and let the good times roll :

Getting close to crunch time. Either Trump is correct and rates go lower along with inflation OR he is wrong, and rates and inflation rip up.

Fed ran inverse rates for the first time in history. In inflationary cycles the uptick in inflation triggered the stock market sell offs. Key points nobody talks about.

Trump playbook. 4mths market selloff, double bottom S&P followed by 2.5y rally before cycle correction.

Hence last year I moved to 2027-29 strategy post Trump win 😉

1 event left to fire inside of April.

[obsidian]

Well, and exactly as I predicted, ETH has hit a new 5 year low against BTC.

ETH is now down 60% to BTC over the year, 15% over 5 years, and now even down over 10 years (down 33%).

This decline of ETH to BTC will continue, for obvious reasons.

I don't know how many times I have said it, but I will say it again to anyone new here. Bitcoin is not "crypto". Its fundamental to learn, understand, and act on, the difference.

ETH has been a dog for sure 

It has great fundamentals, but bad marketing, FUD, and regulatory clarity has held it back. Right now Ethereum is building out the Web3 infrastructure. Similar to how Vanderbilt built out the US railway system.

ETH can drop more relative to BTC. It may not be at a bottom yet. But I think it will turn around. The fundamentals are just too good. It's got better economic security than Bitcoin. Most of the TVL and stablecoins are on ETH. Ethereum is like a multicore processor with multithreading capability just waiting for the multithreaded applications to arrive.

ETH staking is robust and stable, around 34 million ETH is staked.
https://beaconcha.in/charts/staked_ether

The BTC hashrate appears volatile and prone to swings of 30% in a matter of days!
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart

This is not an issue yet for BTC, but it might be after another halving or two.

Check out this ETH Blob Simulator:
https://ethereum-blob-simulator.netlify.app/
https://x.com/digi_banc/status/1910803698374287363

There are 63 Rollups and 85 Validiums

Let's use 60 Rollups

Target Blobs per block?
Let's use 64

Max Blobs per block?
Let's use 2x Target (128)

Transaction Bytes?
Let's use default 180

$ETH price?
Let's use $3300 (not too high, not too low)

18000 TPS at an average fee of $0.99 per transaction
🤯 Why?

3 years ago, the avg. would have been in the $100s per transaction!!

And remember, we are assuming 300 TPS per Rollup (in fact 0.3% of its post PeerDAS capacity)
The higher TPS, the lower the avg. transaction fee

Is usage of 18000 TPS even realistic?

YES

Let's look at stablecoins on Ethereum over the years
2020 -> 2022: huge growth
2022 -> 2024: stable then drop (L1 scaling through L2s + regulatory uncertainty)
2024 -> Today: huge growth (regulatory certainty + growing L2s)
👇



Let's look at more recent RWAs, other than stablecoins
Since mid 2022, huge growth in tokenized private credits, followed by US Treasury Debt.
Funny how Blackrock's BUIDL + BUIDL I funds have gone from a $300 million position to a recent $2.2 billion

Imagine stocks...
👇



There are 70 live companies tokenizing assets on Ethereum
Another 70 companies are incoming, noticeably DTCC which is the largest assets settlement agency in the US
In 2011, DTCC settled $1.7 Quadrillion (with a Q)

In Ethereum, settlement of things is currently broken down as:
Mainnet (L1): 54%
ZkSync: 22%
Stellar: 5%

And the rest. FYI, Base covers only 0.5% ATM

While companies love Ethereum, we can obviously expect the likes of Base, Arbitrum and Optimism to grow their share
👇

Now, let's look at Defi

Ethereum (green) processes 52% (approx. $50 bln with a peak in 2021 at $110 bln) + L2s at $5.5 billion

Solana (blue) processes 7% of TVL

Notice how 2022 -> 2024 also had regulatory uncertainty + L2s scaling, resulting in lower TVL

Growing back
👇

Ethereum (green), Solana (blue), L2s (multiple colors)



What have we seen so far?

USAGE growth of Defi + RWAs, whether directly on Mainnet or throughout L2s

And this is just the beginning! The infrastructure is ready and the tech is perfecting (best UX -> native rollups, interoperability, privacy, based sequencing)

👇

The community has never been stronger
@Etherealize_io
 
@eth_strategy
 
@ethereum
 
@ethdotorg
 
@ETHGlobal
 and many more amazing, talented people committed to Ethereum onboarding the world

The largest dev community!!

It's all good you say, but how does it help my bags?

Fair enough
👇

Looking back at the blobs simulator results:

Total ETH burnt per day: 94500 ETH -> 34.5 million ETH burnt per year!!

Talk about deflationary in a potentially inflationary economy

What do you think that'll do to your bags?
👇

In terms of revenue, take the ETH burnt and multiply by the price

$ETH at $3300 burning 34.5 million ETH per year = $114 billion per year of revenue

AI estimate:
Tech company making $345 billion of net revenue would have a $12 trillion mkt cap

THAT'S $ETH AT $100k!!

Enjoy!!

[obsidian]

Vanderbilt built the U.S. railroads, but he needed freight to make them profitable. Rockefeller's oil barrels filled his rail cars and created the demand.

"New infrastructure is only as valuable as the demand that fills it."

Similarly, Ethereum’s new blob space is powerful infrastructure — but it needs something valuable to fill it. Tokenized stocks and stablecoins could be the modern-day oil barrels.

[obsidian]

All-in Solana, the only one web3 company making revenues

Solana is like a single-core processor. Compared with Ethereum's multi-core design. Why would a bank or company want to share block space on Solana's L1 with all the meme coin degens?! When Trump brought out his meme coin in January, Solana choked. People were bitching that their transactions would not complete for hours. It's all smoke and mirrors. A lot of arbitrage bot trading is done to inflate Solana's transaction volume. Stakers are receiving a high interest rate resulting in a SOL inflation of 6-7%, maybe more?

You can have the fastest single-core CPU in the world. It's going to choke when you try and run 10-20 apps on it. That's why computing switched to multi-core CPUs. Not all applications are optimized for multi-threading. Games for example still require a very fast single core performance. 3D and Video Editing sofware can utilize more CPU cores.

And this is why most blockchains will eventually embrace L2s.

Speaking of Solana, the validator requirements are huge! A validator machine needs 256GB RAM and 10G network minimum!
https://docs.anza.xyz/operations/requirements/

This by design makes it centralized, requiring enterprise hardware out of reach of many individuals.

Also interesting that Base is apparently already twice as fast as Solana.

[obsidian]

Is this realistic?

Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin at $110K Soon
Bitcoin's Impending Impact on Markets
Historical Trends Suggest Further Growth
What to Know:
Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin reaching $110K, exceeding past peaks.
Predicted price surpasses $70K concerns in near term.
Market dynamics cast potential influence on Bitcoin's trajectory.
Bitcoin Predicted to Reach $110K, Surpassing $70K Concerns
Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin at $110K Soon
Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, has projected that Bitcoin will ascend to $110,000 within the near future. This trend signifies a shift in market sentiment and potential resilience in the face of past volatility. Hayes' forecast contrasts previous apprehensions of a downturn towards $70,000.
"What I mean is that the price is more likely to hit $110k than $76.5k next. If we hit $110k, then it's yachtzee time and we ain't looking back until $250k." - Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder, BitMEX

Speaking of Hayes:

https://dailyhodl.com/2025/04/10/you-want-to-own-the-most-hated-thing-arthur-hayes-says-ethereum-set-to-outrun-solana-as-memecoin-craze-fades/

‘You Want To Own the Most Hated Thing’ – Arthur Hayes Says Ethereum Set To Outrun Solana As Memecoin Craze Fades

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes believes Ethereum (ETH) is likely to outperform Solana (SOL) over the next leg of the cycle.

In a new interview on the Unchained podcast, Hayes says Ethereum has a higher risk-reward ratio compared to Solana going forward.

“If you have a fresh unit of fiat of capital, what do you do with it? Do you buy Solana or do you buy ETH right now given all the things that are happening? And so I would say ETH from a risk-reward perspective is better…

…whenever you have a turn in the cycle, you want to own the most hated thing because that’s going to perform the best. And you don’t want to own the most loved thing from the previous cycle because that’s going to perform the worst.

That’s not to say that Solana is not going to go up a lot. But relative to something else, is it going to perform as well? And so I think ETH has sort of the market fundamentals to do very well in this next leg up because people hate it so much.”

Hayes says that one of the factors limiting Solana’s upside potential is the fact that the narrative that powered Solana’s rally to a new all-time high in January is unlikely to reach similar heights of popularity.

“Solana did very well on sort of the memecoin supercycle, or whatever you want to call it, over the last 18-24 months.

But I think that, yes, there will be some meme coins that do well…

…but are we going to go back to where we were 12 months ago where everybody and their mother was just like slinging memecoins trying to find the $1 million market cap that goes to $100 million market cap and just handing hundreds of millions of dollars in fees to PumpFun?

I don’t think we’re going back there and so I think all that activity that was on Solana based on memecoin trading won’t be there. And so the narrative of, ‘oh, memecoin trading is amazing, the anti-Venture Capital way to participate in crypto is on Solana, therefore I need to own Solana as the layer-1 that hosted all that activity.’ I think that narrative goes away.”

[gib]

Speaking of ETH being "the most hated layer 1..."

ETH is now down to BTC:

2% on the day
15% on the month
43% over 3 months
61% over a year
22% over 5 years
35% over 10 years

Its an absolutely terrible performance, especially in light o all the fake news and hype that it would outperform BTC 4 x this cycle blah blah blah. Lessons have now surely been learned!

So, can we now, definitively conclude that I was right?

Eth will of course continue to fall to BTC over time (for obvious reasons). For anyone still holding any substantial amount of it, I would suggest DCAing out, and into BTC, or simply bite the bullet and do it all at once.

[Phantom Spunker]

How many Getbiggers are 'whole coiners'? I know Gib has shitloads. Anyone else?

[Mayday]

Nearly there and 98% are euphoric for alt season (still).

Possible S&P double bottom risk in next 1-2wk window. Watch 0.017 timing as I believe capitulation occurs from there.

I do not have as many Bitcoin as gib.

[French]

Only 2 cryptos to hold : SOLANA & KASPA

[French]

Ethereum is slowly turning into the next ATOM—bloated, overhyped, and sidelined by its own ecosystem. L2s thrive while ETH itself becomes just another outdated gas token. The future's modular, but ETH’s role in it? Diminishing fast.

Hayden Adams, founder of Uniswap, believes that Solana is currently the best blockchain for scaling decentralized finance (DeFi) at the layer 1 level. His stance reignites the debate over the limitations of Ethereum's modular model.

[French]