Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Flexacon]

Only 24.9k though 

What do you think is going to happen to cause the depeg?

https://blockworks.co/news/usdt-selloff-alarm-bells-tether

Article actually does a good job of not making it a FUD piece.

Curve is the shitshow. The founder leveraged something like $100m of his token to borrow $70m USDT basically to avoid paying tax. Faces liquidation on a 40% drop of his token sending it to 0 and possibly a chain reaction through defi (unlikely)

Shorts went after it. Founder is now possibly using his USDT to prop token price up. Huge USDT redemption pressure when liquidity is a mess across crypto = possible depeg

**Someone has come along to defend the peg now (possibly His Excellency Justin Sun)

[gib]

Wasn't so smart for Saylor. He is down something like 10 or 15% right now. If he had bought ETH instead of BTC he'd be up 50%.

Actually it was smart. Every asset allocator needs to balance risk with reward. He could also have bought Pepe coin, or any other shit coin (some surely outperformed BTC also), but doesn't mean it would be a sensible investment and any sensible investment seeks the best balance up upside vs downside risk.

[Flexacon]

Actually it was smart. Every asset allocator needs to balance risk with reward. He could also have bought Pepe coin, or any other shit coin (some surely outperformed BTC also), but doesn't mean it would be a sensible investment and any sensible investment seeks the best balance up upside vs downside risk.

If the argument is seeking the best balance between risk and reward then he failed that too as his entire allocation is into one asset class (crypto and then only one crypto in that class)  which from a risk point of view is definitely not the smartest thing to do.

As things currently stand a better argument can be made that he went high risk, low reward.

[loco]

It seems so far I was wrong thinking that crypto would follow the stock market upward.  Maybe it will in a few months. We'll see.

[Flexacon]

It seems so far I was wrong thinking that crypto would follow the stock market upward.  Maybe it will in a few months. We'll see.

It does typically, or rather it did. During risk on/risk off cycles it often moved before stock markets did. Sometimes by a couple of days or even by a week or 2.

The fact that it appears to have decorrelated in such a big way is part of the reason some think it's over for crypto.

**Maybe there is a chance Crypto front ran the stock market by several weeks this time. Crypto currently sits at fair value and the stock market is double digits percentage over value just like crypto was several weeks ago.

[Griffith]

New ATH's for ETH and BTC in 2024.

[loco]

BlackRock files for spot bitcoin ETF, with Coinbase as a crypto custodian

"Asset management giant BlackRock took the first steps on Thursday to launch a spot bitcoin exchange traded fund, which has long been a point of contention between crypto advocates and federal regulators.

The firm filed an application with the Securities and Exchange Commission to launch the iShares Bitcoin Trust. If approved, the ETF would allow easy access for investors to get exposure to crypto in a product from one of Wall Street’s largest companies."

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/15/blackrock-files-for-spot-bitcoin-etf-with-coinbase-as-a-crypto-custodian.html

[Flexacon]

BlackRock files for spot bitcoin ETF, with Coinbase as a crypto custodian

Potentially big news, but looks more like a psyop/bearish to me. I will leave it for others to discuss.

[Mayday]

Actually it was smart. Every asset allocator needs to balance risk with reward. He could also have bought Pepe coin, or any other shit coin (some surely outperformed BTC also), but doesn't mean it would be a sensible investment and any sensible investment seeks the best balance up upside vs downside risk.

-20% down on his asset while paying 6.25% on debt acquired in order to buy said asset.

Make no mistake, this guy is banking 100% on belief this is going to 500k in 2025. He thought we’d have hit 250k already. We are at 25k.

He is no different to the other total degenerates who we all found out believed we were going to 250k and took huge leverage only to collapse. None of those guys ever derisked. They all doubled down and took on more leverage to prop things up.

The ultimate irony would be if he is forced into a position to sell some of his holdings and ends up forming the last ATH which then ultimately nukes price and sends him broke.

[Mayday]

It seems so far I was wrong thinking that crypto would follow the stock market upward.  Maybe it will in a few months. We'll see.

Equity lows Sep Oct and then lows in March

Bitcoin lows Oct Nov and then lows in March

Bitcoin is up +70% from lows last year. It’s volatile as hell so don’t get too caught up in daily swings, it’s all moving together.

Potentially big news, but looks more like a psyop/bearish to me. I will leave it for others to discuss.

It’d be a big FU to Barry that’s for sure.

Perhaps end of 2024 this gets approved and launched and then we nuke 😀

[Flexacon]

It’d be a big FU to Barry that’s for sure.

A huge FU to Barry and GBTC holders. Might even spell the end of GBTC and DCG with BlackRock coming in scooping everything up and taking over.

The most bullish thing from the filling for me is that coinbase would be the custodian.

[Mayday]

A huge FU to Barry and GBTC holders. Might even spell the end of GBTC and DCG with BlackRock coming in scooping everything up and taking over.

The most bullish thing from the filling for me is that coinbase would be the custodian.

Things to ponder:
*Blackrock has a 99.8% success rate for ETF submission
*Minimum time for ETF approval is 3 months out to a few years
*Average time from ETF approval to launch date is 221 days
*At the earliest timeline the launch would be 23rd April 2024
*Next Bitcoin halving is due for April 2024

[Flexacon]

Things to ponder:
*Blackrock has a 99.8% success rate for ETF submission
*Minimum time for ETF approval is 3 months out to a few years
*Average time from ETF approval to launch date is 221 days
*At the earliest timeline the launch would be 23rd April 2024
*Next Bitcoin halving is due for April 2024

Yep. Everything lines up. Blackrock have only ever had 1 submission back in 2014 rejected and over 500 approved.

I should have said I'm bearish short term (bullish long term) as I doubt Blackrock will be buying BTC at current prices. They wouldn't touch bitcoin with binance (and tether) having major control/manipulation over the prices. That's Blackrocks game.

They'll buy in at the lows once binance and possibly tether are dead, or maybe they get Barrys and/or Saylors coins somehow at discount.

Maxis are in shambles though. Bitcoin will be captured by Blackrock (fourth arm of the US government) and the price should moon, but all the maxi narratives are dead. Stay for the monetary gains and look like a fraud or move to a different/new fork and hold on to maxi values.

Maxis will address me as Mr Flexacon if this plays out

It's not gonna replace anything or change the world, that's just a maxi narrative. It's just gonna be another tool used in finance. You'll have various players in finance buying (through etfs) when they want to go super risk on and it will be the first thing they'll dump when they smell any trouble. No different really from what's been happening for a while.

Anyway a bunch of institutions are buying BTC big right now (US government is also selling silk rd BTC) but they don't plan on holding for long. The face ripper both up and then down should be fun. I'm on Link.

[Theoak*]

Yep. Everything lines up. Blackrock have only ever had 1 submission back in 2014 rejected and over 500 approved.

I should have said I'm bearish short term (bullish long term) as I doubt Blackrock will be buying BTC at current prices. They wouldn't touch bitcoin with binance (and tether) having major control/manipulation over the prices. That's Blackrocks game.

They'll buy in at the lows once binance and possibly tether are dead, or maybe they get Barrys and/or Saylors coins somehow at discount.

Maxis are in shambles though. Bitcoin will be captured by Blackrock (fourth arm of the US government) and the price should moon, but all the maxi narratives are dead. Stay for the monetary gains and look like a fraud or move to a different/new fork and hold on to maxi values.

Maxis will address me as Mr Flexacon if this plays out

Ahh yes the fork, I  personally can't wait for it. Been several years since I enjoyed free btc, loved trading bch then bsv into btc. Actually couldn't believe the levels of retardation of those thinking  those forks would retain value.  Don't worry third times a charm, I'm sure.  I just hope it eventuates before the 51% attack from Russia or China or maybe the Rothschild's are buying up majority of the ASICS chips right  now ready to pump 1billion$ a day to attack the network?

If btc manages to escape  that attack vector then watch out for the ESG family friendly btc fork. Got that right, no more melting ice caps, rising sea levels - live on a fault line, earthquakes  no more with ESG-BTC on PoS.

So much time and effort try to centralise a coin. Don't understand it, if you  want centrilisation buy Eth.

[Flexacon]

Ahh yes the fork, I  personally can't wait for it. Been several years since I enjoyed free btc, loved trading bch then bsv into btc. Actually couldn't believe the levels of retardation of those thinking  those forks would retain value.  Don't worry third times a charm, I'm sure.  I just hope it eventuates before the 51% attack from Russia or China or maybe the Rothschild's are buying up majority of the ASICS chips right  now ready to pump 1billion$ a day to attack the network?

If btc manages to escape  that attack vector then watch out for the ESG family friendly btc fork. Got that right, no more melting ice caps, rising sea levels - live on a fault line, earthquakes  no more with ESG-BTC on PoS.

So much time and effort try to centralise a coin. Don't understand it, if you  want centrilisation buy Eth.

Good try at deflection. Focus on the least important thing I said and then ramble on about another coin.

Once again for those at the back. Maxis are in shambles as the fourth branch of the US government comes for their beloved coin that was gonna save the world and they are powerless to do anything.

Are you gonna stick to your principles or are you taking the money?

[Theoak*]

Good try at deflection. Focus on the least important thing I said and then ramble on about another coin.

Once again for those at the back. Maxis are in shambles as the fourth branch of the US government comes for their beloved coin that was gonna save the world and they are powerless to do anything.

Are you gonna stick to your principles or are you taking the money?

Explain to me what the fourth branch of the government is going to do for those in the back? Fork the coin? Buy 2-3 million btc? Then what? You act like owning majority of the supply allows for an individual to change the rules, censor transactions, roll back transactions. This isn't Ethereum. Those with the most money got no say in the system besides pumping and dumping.Thats effectively  what an ETF is a short position/hedge for smart  money and long position for retards.


What maxis you talking about? The retards fixated on price calling for 10million in 5 years or the ones saying the USD will be knocked over before  the turn of the decade? Because these people are retarded degenerate gamblers sold a lie by conmen.

It's a multi decade process, perhaps even a century. We will be long dead before that sort of scenario takes place.


I'll stick to my principals because I'm a stubborn fuck, I'm willing to risk it all, watch it go to 0 at a chance to secure a better system. I understand a need for the first decentralized,  hard , scarce monetary asset due to mine and my wife's families being stripped of their wealth by corrupt governments and tyrants.

I think you're just trolling most of the time, product of being successful financially at young age and too much time on your hands because you're not naive enough to think there is no place for btc to exist in the worlds economy in the future  and long after we are dead.

[Flexacon]

Explain to me what the fourth branch of the government is going to do for those in the back? Fork the coin? Buy 2-3 million btc? Then what? You act like owning majority of the supply allows for an individual to change the rules, censor transactions, roll back transactions. This isn't Ethereum. Those with the most money got no say in the system besides pumping and dumping.Thats effectively  what an ETF is a short position/hedge for smart  money and long position for retards.

I've reposted in bold above what I think happens to bitcoin in the future. It becomes a tool in finance similar to gold and silver.

If you dont know already gold and silver have some big ETFS owned by institutions like Blackrock and JPM. The price and market is heavily manipulated by them. People are still free to trade physical gold ad silver amongst themselves, but the institutions have captured those markets and let's not forget examples like Executive Order 6102.

That's bitcoins future if Blackrock get their ETF.

If Blackrock end up owning the majority of the supply (may not even need a majority) then BTC is captured as it effectively a kill switch for decentrlized BTC. For example they can insist (or even make it law) that only transactions on their preapproved KYC rails are valid and legal. With a spot ETF there is a very good chance they eventually end up with the majority of the supply as every share will be fully backed by BTC. With enough people locked into their system it becomes consensus and bitcoin is captured.

Sure it will probably be amazing for the price, but a captured BTC is no longer a decentralized BTC. Surely you see the irony in that!

[Theoak*]

I've reposted in bold above what I think happens to bitcoin in the future. It becomes a tool in finance similar to gold and silver.

If you dont know already gold and silver have some big ETFS owned by institutions like Blackrock and JPM. The price and market is heavily manipulated by them. People are still free to trade physical gold ad silver amongst themselves, but the institutions have captured those markets and let's not forget examples like Executive Order 6102.

That's bitcoins future if Blackrock get their ETF.

If Blackrock end up owning the majority of the supply (may not even need a majority) then BTC is captured as it effectively a kill switch for decentrlized BTC. For example they can insist (or even make it law) that only transactions on their preapproved KYC rails are valid and legal. With a spot ETF there is a very good chance they eventually end up with the majority of the supply as every share will be fully backed by BTC. With enough people locked into their system it becomes consensus and bitcoin is captured.

Sure it will probably be amazing for the price, but a captured BTC is no longer a decentralized BTC. Surely you see the irony in that!

I've already mentioned how those same actors can't capture or supress price forever due to btc being capped and audible at 21million coins. Blackrock will not recreate an FTX 2.0 x 10. They'll play their game for awhile until a short squeeze eventuates and people do in fact take their money off exchanges. Majority people are retarded when it comes to storing their own coins, so an ETF/custodian is needed. (I'm on the fence)
We live in an information age where the next generation will be well informed as the industry grows, then next generation after that and sovereignty/securing you're own wealth will be more prominent and less need for Custodians/trusts. Hence I always say this is a multi decade process.

They're already trying to capture btc via attacking mining through ESG narrative, it's a playbook theyre familiar with. It will fail (already is) and then what I believe might happen is they attack big miners by offering subsidies. Cheap energy to mine btc which will  effectively put other miners out of business who don't take government handouts. Then they will sneak in laws to try capture btc at the miner end.

If you're going to disrupt the legacy system be prepared for them to come after you. Remember email first came out. US government and postmaster general said the most effecient and secure  way to send information was via US mail not email. Email needs servers that requires lots of energy and is going to destroy the planet. They actually went to court wanting to stop emails because  per email burnt 10pounds of coal! They wanted to implement an email stamp tax!

Same thing with the internet, those who had a monopoly on information used the same excuse, requires servers too much energy every 5 megabytes of information burned a pound of coal. They tried to shut off the internet and email using falsified energy argument.


So you  basically have btc running on 200tw hours of energy compared to global energy consumption of 160,000tw hours. BTC uses .00018%. It's a rounding error, see what they're doing?  So saying btc uses more energy than a small country is a marketing ploy and outright lie. WEF said in 2017 that by 2020 btc will consume all the world's energy....not a lot, literally said all the world's energy. It's horseshit scaremongering.

[Flexacon]

I've already mentioned how those same actors can't capture or supress price forever due to btc being capped and audible at 21million coins. Blackrock will not recreate an FTX 2.0 x 10. They'll play their game for awhile until a short squeeze eventuates and people do in fact take their money off exchanges. Majority people are retarded when it comes to storing their own coins, so an ETF/custodian is needed. (I'm on the fence)
We live in an information age where the next generation will be well informed as the industry grows, then next generation after that and sovereignty/securing you're own wealth will be more prominent and less need for Custodians/trusts. Hence I always say this is a multi decade process.

They're already trying to capture btc via attacking mining through ESG narrative, it's a playbook theyre familiar with. It will fail (already is) and then what I believe might happen is they attack big miners by offering subsidies. Cheap energy to mine btc which will  effectively put other miners out of business who don't take government handouts. Then they will sneak in laws to try capture btc at the miner end.

I wouldn't be so sure about Blackrock not going down the FTX 2.0 route, just maybe not directly. As I said Blackrock is more than just a financial institution, it's considered the fourth branch of US government. Basically what Blackrock says, goes and then other financial institutions follow. (Fidility might be following with another ETF submission)

Also as mentioned Blackrock chose Coinbase as custodian. The same Coinbase going at it with the SEC. The same coinbase launching an overseas exchange for derivatives. Coinbase will either be brought to its knees and acquired by one of the big institutions or the SEC stuff is for show and they are already on board with Blackrock.

The bald Coinbase CEO co-founder will probably be gone soon as he has been dumping his shares, but the other co-founder who has been busy setting up another firm with an ex Sequoia capital guy has been buying up the stock (over $50m) Speaks volumes about the future direction.

The attempted takeover of bitcoin is possibly a lot closer than people realise as it appears to have been in the works for a while. Not even saying that to troll, I'm genuinely saying I've seen a lot of convincing evidence of that.

I have more to add with regards to ESG and mining and how everything is falling into place. There was a post onemorerep made months ago regarding ESG and Blackrock. @onemorerep if you're reading this any chance you can dig up that post? Search results gave me nothing.

[Thin Lizzy]

It does typically, or rather it did. During risk on/risk off cycles it often moved before stock markets did. Sometimes by a couple of days or even by a week or 2.

The fact that it appears to have decorrelated in such a big way is part of the reason some think it's over for crypto.

**Maybe there is a chance Crypto front ran the stock market by several weeks this time. Crypto currently sits at fair value and the stock market is double digits percentage over value just like crypto was several weeks ago.

It has been more volatile but is almost exactly in line with the S&P for the last year.

[Flexacon]

It has been more volatile but is almost exactly in line with the S&P for the last year.

I don't think the detail in that charting is accurate enough to show the decorrelation.

Other than BTC dumping in November for a few days with FTX blowing up they both lined up until roughly the second week in May. Since then they have decorrelated in a sustained way with the start of June showing significant decorrelation.

Nasdaq which most believe is a better comparison (tech) shows an even more defined decorrelation.

SPX in BLUE
BTC in PINK

[Mayday]

Forget S&P.

The correlation for outcome is gold.

I don’t think anyone has actually looked at gold because they think the timeline is wrong. But It’s not about the timeline.

[gib]

There are a lot of good comments above, but also mixed in with nonsense and a fundamental misunderstanding of the dynamics of Bitcoin.

Are biggest financial players in the world slowing and stealthily making a move on Bitcoin? YES.

Blackrock, China, Soros, Goldman, etc and many super private but powerful HNW's. Yes, of course they are.

Will established players in finance seek to take over the space from startups? Yes, of course.

How can we defend against this (or benefit from it?) That of course if obvious ... BUY BITCOIN AND HODL.

Is the fact that Blackrock and others are moving into this space a bad thing? Does it reduce the power of the de-centralization of Bitcoin? This is where the nonsense comes in. The fact that Blackrock and other established institutions are entering makes no difference to Bitcoin. Bitcoin keeps doing what it does. It does not care who owns it or how much of it you own. Unlike Eth (or other shit coins) Bitcoin cannot be controlled dependent on the stake of it that you have. And game theory, basic economics, and mathematics dictate that no single player can keep infinitely acquiring it, as to do that requires sellers, and because supply is limited, more demand will equate to ever increasing prices.

[Flexacon]

There are a lot of good comments above, but also mixed in with nonsense and a fundamental misunderstanding of the dynamics of Bitcoin.

Are biggest financial players in the world slowing and stealthily making a move on Bitcoin? YES.

Blackrock, China, Soros, Goldman, etc and many super private but powerful HNW's. Yes, of course they are.

Will established players in finance seek to take over the space from startups? Yes, of course.

How can we defend against this (or benefit from it?) That of course if obvious ... BUY BITCOIN AND HODL.

Is the fact that Blackrock and others are moving into this space a bad thing? Does it reduce the power of the de-centralization of Bitcoin? This is where the nonsense comes in. The fact that Blackrock and other established institutions are entering makes no difference to Bitcoin. Bitcoin keeps doing what it does. It does not care who owns it or how much of it you own. Unlike Eth (or other shit coins) Bitcoin cannot be controlled dependent on the stake of it that you have. And game theory, basic economics, and mathematics dictate that no single player can keep infinitely acquiring it, as to do that requires sellers, and because supply is limited, more demand will equate to ever increasing prices.

Your post fails to take into account those institutions going after miners and validators which has already started and will only ramp up.

Institutions don't need to buy up every coin, they just need to achieve a consensus. Owning the majority of coins makes achieving consensus easier, but they might be able to still achieve it with far less. Maybe 20% will be enough, no one really knows until it happens.

By consensus what I really mean is narrative that people are willing to believe. Narrative was used to claim BTC as digital p2p money, digital gold, digital store of value. Narrative/consensus can just as easily lead to BTC ending up as Blackrock coin or even CBDC. You see game theory can just as easily be used to achieve the opposite of what maxis tried to achieve. Turn decentralized into centralized. Reverse uno

There is more discussion that can be had regarding KYC, ESG, miners, security and potential hard forks in the future in case you dont see how these things might be co-opted by institutions and what that could lead to.

How can we defend against this (or benefit from it?) That of course if obvious ... BUY BITCOIN AND HODL.

Sure Buy and Hodl is the best line of defence (maybe the only of defence) Either way regardless of how this plays out Buy and Hodl (and sell) is pretty close to becoming a win-win play.

[Flexacon]

Forget S&P.

The correlation for outcome is gold.

I don’t think anyone has actually looked at gold because they think the timeline is wrong. But It’s not about the timeline.

Do you are mean current gold prices or historical factorials?

BTC has moved inverse DXY at times which is similar to gold, but that's kinda decorrelated too. If it's gold factorials from the 70s 80s to its ATH then I'd say the spot ETF approval will blow that trend apart.