Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Flexacon]

A Dev launched one of these Degen Meme coins. Dumps his holdings on everyone just after launch and makes a cool 500k or so. The coin then gets enough steam to go 100x and the dude missed out on all of it lol 😂

The ICOs now are pretty much rigged. I did one the other week but the price I get is around 14x higher than the Devs and then it launches 20x from their price. In other words Devs can dump at 100x and for me it’s a 7x. This is what I mean when I say everything is already frontrun. You’ll never get the 100x anymore because you need to be a Dev.

I think I know the one talking about. I have a decent sized bag of it. Think it could be this cycles shib

Yeah I've set my expectations for multiples a lot lower.

[Flexacon]

How will the new Bitcoin ETFs affect the Bitcoin market?

Down, then side ways, then up, left, right, down the middle

I'm locked on for 64K as the high for a while. It could go down to 30-40K before going back up to 64K or it could go straight there.

Longer term (years) ETF sends the price a lot higher and makes the price swings less volatile.

[gib]

I'm locked on for 64K as the high for a while. It could go down to 30-40K before going back up to 64K or it could go straight there.

Longer term (years) ETF sends the price a lot higher and makes the price swings less volatile.

I think the ETF is a massive development long-term. We will also see some ETF's launch soon in other major financial centers - Watch for Hong Kong soon which will also provide huge long term inflows from China and Asia.

Some of the factors impacting BTC price, other than the funds flowing in over time, I expect will be related to macro-economic data, especially inflation, interest rates, and stimulus and money-printing. And also of course various global incidents and crisis - wars and epidemics, a financial crisis, etc. Wall St really now has an amazing tool as a proxy for these factors, far superior to gold, and far more volatile (in both directions) - which is great provided you understand that the long term trajectory is up, and treat any dips as accumulation opportunities.

As for where I think BTC goes this cycle, I am more bullish that you Flex. I say we get to 120K as a bare minimum on this cycle, and quite possibly well higher. To me, a 300K peak this cycle is certainly feasible. And I say that not just because I own some.

[Flexacon]

As for where I think BTC goes this cycle, I am more bullish that you Flex. I say we get to 120K as a bare minimum on this cycle, and quite possibly well higher. To me, a 300K peak this cycle is certainly feasible. And I say that not just because I own some.

The 64k call is my March rates decision and pre halving high. Then things probably go quiet for the summer before then it runs again in parabolically.

So still pretty bullish. Macro could make me more bullish and Trump (he is pro crypto) winning the US election would make me hyper bullish.

[GymnJuice]

How will the new Bitcoin ETFs affect the Bitcoin market?

I'm no bitcoin expert. Stock ETFs hold different stocks that try to track the overall market or a segment of that market, right? What is a bitcoin ETF tracking, just the bitcoin itself?

If it is just tracking the bitcoin itself, then it makes me wonder what is the advantage of holding a bitcoin ETF over regular bitcoin? Is it less likely to get hacked and stolen and you don't have to keep track of a password? Easier to exchange from bitcoin to cash to stocks? If that's the case, then I think the bitcoin ETFs will eventually take the lion's share of the market from the older bitcoin exchanges. That's just my uneducated speculation.

[gib]

I'm no bitcoin expert. Stock ETFs hold different stocks that try to track the overall market or a segment of that market, right? What is a bitcoin ETF tracking, just the bitcoin itself?

If it is just tracking the bitcoin itself, then it makes me wonder what is the advantage of holding a bitcoin ETF over regular bitcoin? Is it less likely to get hacked and stolen and you don't have to keep track of a password? Easier to exchange from bitcoin to cash to stocks? If that's the case, then I think the bitcoin ETFs will eventually take the lion's share of the market from the older bitcoin exchanges. That's just my uneducated speculation.

All the US listed BTC ETFs actually hold Bitcoin directly. So technically they don't track Bitcoin, but yes, their price will of course very closely reflect the underlying price of Bitcoin, and so will track Bitcoin in that sense.

Many advantages in holding via an ETF. For many its easier to trade, less issues with bank KYC questions, confidence in buying via a regulated exchange, statement appears along with all the stocks and bonds, protects against lost keys, trading fees may be lower then some exchanges, and for many large HNWIs and pension funds and companies etc it is a way easier way to have access to BTC.

The downside is you don't actually own Bitcoin. All you own is a right, against a 3rd party who is holding your Bitcoin. That exposes you at all sorts of other risks. NYKNYK

[IroNat]

I think there is less risk with an ETF.

No risk of losing your password or losing your little thumb drive where you keep your bitcoin.

Or if your thumb drive malfunctions or is stolen.  I've had a few thumb drives crap out over the years.

Maybe you can back up your thumb drive though.  I would think so.

Also being able to trade your ETF easily.

Also you can invest small amounts at a time.

A high risk investment so only invest what you can afford to lose.

[SOMEPARTS]

I think there is less risk with an ETF.

No risk of losing your password or losing your little thumb drive where you keep your bitcoin.

Or if your thumb drive malfunctions or is stolen.  I've had a few thumb drives crap out over the years.

Maybe you can back up your thumb drive though.  I would think so.

Also being able to trade your ETF easily.

Also you can invest small amounts at a time.

A high risk investment so only invest what you can afford to lose.

It's also nice to be able to put a face to who is taking your $$. 

[loco]

I think there is less risk with an ETF.

No risk of losing your password or losing your little thumb drive where you keep your bitcoin.

Or if your thumb drive malfunctions or is stolen.  I've had a few thumb drives crap out over the years.

Maybe you can back up your thumb drive though.  I would think so.

Also being able to trade your ETF easily.

Also you can invest small amounts at a time.

A high risk investment so only invest what you can afford to lose.

Hopefully, it will be an improvement on fees too.  As of now, you pay high fees to buy, sell, trade, or transfer crypto.  Heck, you look at your crypto balance the wrong way and you may get charged a fee for it.

Hopefully it will simplify reporting your crypto in US tax returns too.

[Flexacon]

Also you can invest small amounts at a time.

You can do that with bitcoin too. It's amazing how many think you could only buy whole units of BTC.

[Flexacon]

It's also nice to be able to put a face to who is taking your $$. 

It's up x3 since your schadenfreude post

Coinbase fires 20% and their CEO says dark times are coming.

Y'all keep on hoping.

Saying that manipulation is needed more than smart money is hilarious.


https://www.coinbase.com/blog/a-message-from-ceo-and-co-founder-brian-armstrong-to-coinbase-employees

Yeah, here's the thing right - I'm not paying much attention to a completely flawed ponzi.

I prefer to laugh about it, because the bad news keeps piling up around the true believers...a bit of schadenfreude.

You should have listened

Some old biddy gave the best explanation of bull market dynamics I've come across. I'm not as confident of a 2023 date as her though.

"Whales (professional traders) act as market makers on "self-regulated" crypto exchanges, and pay no fees to these exchanges and  do not want to trade against each other (which is why such trades are called "toxic flow").

These market makers run ultra-HF algos that can perform trades (like "layering" and "spoofing") that are illegal on ordinary exchanges.

In 2023 the algos will be configured to manage a bitcoin bull run. Why?

Well, how else will they draw retail traders like you and me (who are now very scared) back to trading crypto?

Both market makers and exchanges need retail investors to come back. Exchanges need their fee income (market makers pay no fees), and for market makers it is because when their algos are equally good (i.e. not Alameda's) they have only a 50-50 change of winning a trade.

But retail investors who take risky, leveraged positions are very likely to be wiped out

I laugh at people who laugh about it, simply because I was once one them. But trying to understand the dynamics behind a "flawed ponzi" and the psychology around it had me laughing all the way to the bank. Best thing I ever done!

True believers (most have left this thread)  obviously aren't sitting comfortable with the current price, but they are in it for the long haul. They want all the fraudsters who used tradfi rails to enrich themselves through crypto to get washed out. They want all the crap coins gone. Their thesis isn't price based, it's time based, so the bad news isn't gonna change their beliefs.

Others who are more price sensitive are hoping for forced sell offs to drop the floor price. Bad news resulting in forced selling is exactly what they want.

You may soon hear " bad news" that Ripple lost a case against the SEC and that it's over for "crypto" as it will all get regulated and tokens listed as securities. If you decide to post it here just know that true believers (bitcoin maxis) and people waiting for forced selling couldn't be happier.

I'm laughing even harder at you now

[Mayday]

ETF launch shows +340M inflows into Fidelity and Blackrock.

……. -940M outflow from Grayscale…..

[Flexacon]

ETF launch shows +340M inflows into Fidelity and Blackrock.

……. -940M outflow from Grayscale…..

Are you sure that's not photoshopped (looks it)? The bloomberg terminal ones I saw half hour ago had grayscale at -95M

***

Trying to make sense of what I'm seeing right now and there are some GBTC sellers and some whales selling. ETF inflows look good, but it's all being done OTC so it's not pushing the price up.

Once selling slows down and OTC BTC dries up we should start seeing the inflows reflected in price as they will need to buy spot.

Basically it could be that they are keeping the price suppressed to give early ETF buyers a nice entry. Or everything I'm seeing could be based on pure hopium.

[OlympiaGym]

Looks like BTC is going to $5,000 per coin today.

[f450]

This ETF is the beginning of the end for BITCOIN. The big banks have finally gotten their hands on this decentralized asset and will from now on control it the way they have controlled Gold and Silver. Now you don't have to trade BTC, you can just trade the futures and derivatives.

How Bitcoin maxis dont see this is baffling. Oh well as a trader its great cus now I have volatility and increased liquidity. Sucks for BTC though.

Just Monero left

[Mayday]

Are you sure that's not photoshopped (looks it)? The bloomberg terminal ones I saw half hour ago had grayscale at -95M

***

Trying to make sense of what I'm seeing right now and there are some GBTC sellers and some whales selling. ETF inflows look good, but it's all being done OTC so it's not pushing the price up.

Once selling slows down and OTC BTC dries up we should start seeing the inflows reflected in price as they will need to buy spot.

Basically it could be that they are keeping the price suppressed to give early ETF buyers a nice entry. Or everything I'm seeing could be based on pure hopium.

Wasn’t shopped, the update was a different font is all and same person did it.

I can’t validate that data but given so many big players were buying at 10k-12k they’re selling at a 4x already so I see no reason to doubt it.

I saw the same shit in the last cycle where the ‘sell the news’ was replaced with ‘but what if it’s buy the news’ yet it never was.

[a_pupil]

Looks like BTC is going to $5,000 per coin today.

 

I'm glad I invested in chinese raws instead. The whole world could go to shit, but gymcels will still need steroids.

[Flexacon]

Wasn’t shopped, the update was a different font is all and same person did it.

I can’t validate that data but given so many big players were buying at 10k-12k they’re selling at a 4x already so I see no reason to doubt it.

I saw the same shit in the last cycle where the ‘sell the news’ was replaced with ‘but what if it’s buy the news’ yet it never was.

It's fake bro and a bad one at that. Zoom in and you can see it's a cut and paste job.

[OlympiaGym]

I'm glad I invested in chinese raws instead. The whole world could go to shit, but gymcels will still need steroids.

Same. I just order test e but I have 20 compounds on my list. I even charge more for what I label as blends or proviron.

[Theoak*]

This ETF is the beginning of the end for BITCOIN. The big banks have finally gotten their hands on this decentralized asset and will from now on control it the way they have controlled Gold and Silver. Now you don't have to trade BTC, you can just trade the futures and derivatives.

How Bitcoin maxis dont see this is baffling. Oh well as a trader its great cus now I have volatility and increased liquidity. Sucks for BTC though.

Just Monero left

I think you're confusing the btc asset with the btc protocol. Now when the Eth spot ETF gets approved then your above statement will be more justified.

[Mayday]

It's fake bro and a bad one at that. Zoom in and you can see it's a cut and paste job.

I had meant the guy had posted both pre and post so I knew he added it in.

Anyhoo, Grayscale is currently -95M outflows so not so bad.


I took a USD65 long on ETH and I’m down 3 bucks after fees. I’m going to use no leverage and somehow trade my way to USD100 for bragging rights.

[Kwon]

ETF launch shows +340M inflows into Fidelity and Blackrock.

……. -940M outflow from Grayscale…..

Looks like a bad shop,

[Flexacon]

I had meant the guy had posted both pre and post so I knew he added it in.

Anyhoo, Grayscale is currently -95M outflows so not so bad.


I took a USD65 long on ETH and I’m down 3 bucks after fees. I’m going to use no leverage and somehow trade my way to USD100 for bragging rights.

Grayscale outflows for day 2 are brutal though -484M Don't know what the inflows for the other ETFs are yet.

Grayscale redemptions take 1 business day to process so those selling Friday won't show up in outflows until Tuesday (Monday is a bank holiday)

Things could get worse before they get better. Day 2 inflows from the other ETFs will give us a better picture of who is really selling. ETF bros or retail on exchanges.

***

ETFs are net bringing in new money. The selling must be coming from somewhere else

[gib]

Interesting discussion here you guys are having.

In the short term we obviously see outflow from GBTC and inflows to the ETFs, and some volatility and dislocation in the process. Some sellers of GBTC are not immediately moving over into another ETF, and ETF funds will take time for the funds to come in. In the short term, we might therefore see price impact as GBTC unloads due to outflows. But all this will settle. The big picture is this is super positive, with the opportunities for fund inflows massively opened and diversified. BTC is limited in supply. Demand and inflows are poised to massively increase. And with a scarce asset that means increase in price. And that won't be immediate - it will start to happen over the next months and years and decades. We will look back at this very moment as an absolute opportunity of a lifetime in hindsight, and any little blip from 46K to 43K etc will be a rounding error on a graph zoomed out.

Massive opportunity to acquire. For anyone who is only a partial-coiner (or a no-coiner) use this time to become a whole coiner. If you are higher up on the BTC food chain, use this opportunity to move on up.

I started as a shrimp and over time evolved into a fish. Don't think I will get to Dolphin, but may just use this window of opportunity to become a slightly larger Dolphin.

Shrimp: less than 1 BTC
Crab: 1 to 10 BTC
Octopus: 10 to 50 BTC
Fish: 50 to 100 BTC
Dolphin: 100 to 500 BTC
Shark: 500 to 1000 BTC
Whale: >1000 BTC
Humpback: >5000 BTC

I will also say, FUCK VANGUARD GROUP. VANGUARD INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT SUX.

For those not aware, Vanguard are not allowing their customers to the Bitcoin ETFs (yet they do allow them to buy MSTR). Probably they are sour that they didn't get their own BTC ETF, and are trying to retain funds. But this will go down as a lousy management decision as clients will leave and boycott them due to their selfish and greedy stance on this. The irony is that the desire to have just 1-5% in assets in BTC, will lead people to move to new brokers and funds just for this purpose. And once lost, a customer is very hard to win back.

[gib]

Also, bear in mind, Greyscale could very easily bring its management fee right down if it wanted to, even below that of Blackrock and still be more profitable than Blackrock given its hodling. So its really a calculated decision - how much will leave their fund, and when redemptions will slow etc. But at some point, they could literally within a day, move to match Blackrock, stopping all the selling, and probably leading to inflows. I am sure they have modeled this all out and are ready to move depending on the data.