Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Theoak*]

This ETF is the beginning of the end for BITCOIN. The big banks have finally gotten their hands on this decentralized asset and will from now on control it the way they have controlled Gold and Silver. Now you don't have to trade BTC, you can just trade the futures and derivatives.

How Bitcoin maxis dont see this is baffling. Oh well as a trader its great cus now I have volatility and increased liquidity. Sucks for BTC though.

Just Monero left

I think you're confusing the btc asset with the btc protocol. Now when the Eth spot ETF gets approved then your above statement will be more justified.

[Mayday]

It's fake bro and a bad one at that. Zoom in and you can see it's a cut and paste job.

I had meant the guy had posted both pre and post so I knew he added it in.

Anyhoo, Grayscale is currently -95M outflows so not so bad.


I took a USD65 long on ETH and I’m down 3 bucks after fees. I’m going to use no leverage and somehow trade my way to USD100 for bragging rights.

[Kwon]

ETF launch shows +340M inflows into Fidelity and Blackrock.

……. -940M outflow from Grayscale…..

Looks like a bad shop,

[Flexacon]

I had meant the guy had posted both pre and post so I knew he added it in.

Anyhoo, Grayscale is currently -95M outflows so not so bad.


I took a USD65 long on ETH and I’m down 3 bucks after fees. I’m going to use no leverage and somehow trade my way to USD100 for bragging rights.

Grayscale outflows for day 2 are brutal though -484M Don't know what the inflows for the other ETFs are yet.

Grayscale redemptions take 1 business day to process so those selling Friday won't show up in outflows until Tuesday (Monday is a bank holiday)

Things could get worse before they get better. Day 2 inflows from the other ETFs will give us a better picture of who is really selling. ETF bros or retail on exchanges.

***

ETFs are net bringing in new money. The selling must be coming from somewhere else

[gib]

Interesting discussion here you guys are having.

In the short term we obviously see outflow from GBTC and inflows to the ETFs, and some volatility and dislocation in the process. Some sellers of GBTC are not immediately moving over into another ETF, and ETF funds will take time for the funds to come in. In the short term, we might therefore see price impact as GBTC unloads due to outflows. But all this will settle. The big picture is this is super positive, with the opportunities for fund inflows massively opened and diversified. BTC is limited in supply. Demand and inflows are poised to massively increase. And with a scarce asset that means increase in price. And that won't be immediate - it will start to happen over the next months and years and decades. We will look back at this very moment as an absolute opportunity of a lifetime in hindsight, and any little blip from 46K to 43K etc will be a rounding error on a graph zoomed out.

Massive opportunity to acquire. For anyone who is only a partial-coiner (or a no-coiner) use this time to become a whole coiner. If you are higher up on the BTC food chain, use this opportunity to move on up.

I started as a shrimp and over time evolved into a fish. Don't think I will get to Dolphin, but may just use this window of opportunity to become a slightly larger Dolphin.

Shrimp: less than 1 BTC
Crab: 1 to 10 BTC
Octopus: 10 to 50 BTC
Fish: 50 to 100 BTC
Dolphin: 100 to 500 BTC
Shark: 500 to 1000 BTC
Whale: >1000 BTC
Humpback: >5000 BTC

I will also say, FUCK VANGUARD GROUP. VANGUARD INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT SUX.

For those not aware, Vanguard are not allowing their customers to the Bitcoin ETFs (yet they do allow them to buy MSTR). Probably they are sour that they didn't get their own BTC ETF, and are trying to retain funds. But this will go down as a lousy management decision as clients will leave and boycott them due to their selfish and greedy stance on this. The irony is that the desire to have just 1-5% in assets in BTC, will lead people to move to new brokers and funds just for this purpose. And once lost, a customer is very hard to win back.

[gib]

Also, bear in mind, Greyscale could very easily bring its management fee right down if it wanted to, even below that of Blackrock and still be more profitable than Blackrock given its hodling. So its really a calculated decision - how much will leave their fund, and when redemptions will slow etc. But at some point, they could literally within a day, move to match Blackrock, stopping all the selling, and probably leading to inflows. I am sure they have modeled this all out and are ready to move depending on the data.

[Mayday]

Also, bear in mind, Greyscale could very easily bring its management fee right down if it wanted to, even below that of Blackrock and still be more profitable than Blackrock given its hodling. So its really a calculated decision - how much will leave their fund, and when redemptions will slow etc. But at some point, they could literally within a day, move to match Blackrock, stopping all the selling, and probably leading to inflows. I am sure they have modeled this all out and are ready to move depending on the data.

Barry got done for accounting irregularity and got into shit. He was being a naughty boy. The crypto Degen ran crazy deep my friend, we all were lied to. But never fear, I am here to light the tunnel with my own torch rather than rely on someone else’s 😀

The Grayscale dump is the people who bought at 10k-12k getting out for a 4x. Smart enough to buy at the bottom, smart enough to sell at a peak. Fees wouldn’t come into it at a gain like that.

[a_pupil]

Same. I just order test e but I have 20 compounds on my list. I even charge more for what I label as blends or proviron.

lmao

[Flexacon]

I will also say, FUCK VANGUARD GROUP. VANGUARD INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT SUX.

For those not aware, Vanguard are not allowing their customers to the Bitcoin ETFs (yet they do allow them to buy MSTR). Probably they are sour that they didn't get their own BTC ETF, and are trying to retain funds. But this will go down as a lousy management decision as clients will leave and boycott them due to their selfish and greedy stance on this. The irony is that the desire to have just 1-5% in assets in BTC, will lead people to move to new brokers and funds just for this purpose. And once lost, a customer is very hard to win back.

You can be pretty sure this is all political as they also had no issues allowing BTC futures ETF in the past (the are banning them now) but a change of political regime (Trump) and pressure from customers because of how well BTC does post halving will cause them to change their stance.

So this actually a good thing for someone like me who is looking to trade the cycles. It just means there will still be more sidelined capital which enter towards the end of the cycle to pump the price or help enable another cycle.

[Mayday]

Grayscale just loaded 9,000 BTC to sell.

I know people thought the ETF launch was the Holy Grail but that’s a price of 48k….. The ETF then Launches……Hundreds of million pour in…….Price drops to 41k……. Grayscale then organise to dump 0.4B…..

To top it off we now have hundreds of millions in an ETF which can be shorted

Yet nobody believes me about price suppression.

[Flexacon]

Grayscale just loaded 9,000 BTC to sell.

I know people thought it was the Holy Grail but that’s a price of 48k….. The ETF then Launches……Hundreds of million pour in…….Price drops to 41k……. Grayscale then organise to dump 0.4B…..

To top it off we now have hundreds of millions in an ETF which can be shorted

Yet nobody believes me about price suppression.

Price in the short term is irrelevant. What matters is volume  That was the main concern monied people had about BTC. Was the volume on exchanges real or faked? (see below) Volume will inevitably equal price increase.

As for shorting any institution or fund doing it with size must hate money as they'd get blown up to smithereens by steady buy pressure and/or bitcoin whales. Macro and black swan type event shorting would obviously be different.

ETFs will not bring price suppression, they'll bring a suppression to volatile price swings. If I didn't  think I could finesse Alts for a few more years I'd go full maxi, hold and never sell.

Quote from a senior bloomberg ETF analyst about the btc etf volumes

"Let me put into context how insane $10b in volume is in first 3 days. There were 500 ETFs launched in 2023. Today, they did a COMBINDED $450m in volume. The best one did $45m. And many have had months to get going. $IBIT alone is seeing more activity than the entire '23 Freshman Class"

[Mayday]

It matters because the words  ‘short term’ is a forever moving range based on the current day looking forward.At some point the ‘short term’ occurs during a milestone moment where the outcome is incredibly meaningful.

Like at tops for example. Where ‘short term’ doesn’t matter as it dips but what if it keeps dipping? Well the ‘short term’ would be incredibly important wouldn’t It as it would have pointed out a change in behaviour.

The ETF is a milestone event building for over a decade and the outcome was the new overlords sent it down. I’m Not saying we won’t go up higher after this but I’m saying if the new overlords send this from 48k down to low 30s that suggests to me they won’t allow it to go all that much higher because they want to send it lower.

Besides, Can you imagine the carnage if they let BTC get to 500k and then banned self custody and Tether? Horrific!

Anyhoo, what is the price target you are looking for? Clearly I am the lowest and most bearish in here by a mile lol. I’ll be wrong so it’ll be higher than I say so if everyone looks good at my price target then that’s awesome 👏

[Flexacon]

Short term with an ETF doesn't matter because it's not a one off event that impacts the price and then it fades away into irrelevance. ETFs and the volume they'll bring lead to sustained buy pressure that is impactful for years. It's a stairs up only situation rather than an elevator up snd stairs down.

Don't think Blackrock and co are in control of the price yet, could take years but they'll probably get there eventually. I think their main goal though will be to control narrative.

I'm at 64K/65k within the next few months even if we go down into the 30s first.

As far as GBTC. The sellers today could be out of crypto forever or ibit buyers tomorrows. No one really knows. I do know some bito traders are wrapping up their crypto 2023 funds and are pushing their investors to go even bigger in 2024. They are salivating at the spot and leveraged ETFs.

[gib]

Grayscale just loaded 9,000 BTC to sell.

I know people thought the ETF launch was the Holy Grail but that’s a price of 48k….. The ETF then Launches……Hundreds of million pour in…….Price drops to 41k……. Grayscale then organise to dump 0.4B…..

To top it off we now have hundreds of millions in an ETF which can be shorted

Yet nobody believes me about price suppression.

Much of the GS redemptions is money that was locked up for a long time with some investors taking the chance to cash out. Others don't want to pay 1.5% management fee and so are moving to other funds.

You need to look not just at outflows from GS, but also the inflows in the other direction into other funds and also into BTC directly. Make no doubt about it - the ETF is a MASSIVE development for Bitcoin. The reshuffeling between GS to other funds will soon settle. And then we just have steady HODL inflows, provide super solid support level for constant upwards momentum.

ETF's can also be leveraged long, not just shorted, but either way, shorts/longs are just noise along the overall upward trend which will continue either way.

[Mayday]

I appreciate the responses.

Apologies if my recent energetic posts appear rude, my poor communication skills at work.

[Quilzechews]

I appreciate the responses.

Apologies if my recent energetic posts appear rude, my poor communication skills at work.

All Australians are assholes, we understand,  no need to explain your self

[Theoak*]

All Australians are assholes, we understand,  no need to explain your self

Lol, Mayday  is not an asshole, just a high functioning autistit with slight adhd, that's why he works in quant analysis.

[Flexacon]

[GymnJuice]

Any thoughts on which ETF is best? IBIT looks to have low fees and good volume.

[gib]

Any thoughts on which ETF is best? IBIT looks to have low fees and good volume.

I would probably go with IBIT (indeed I already have).

I think Bitwise is also one I would support. Philosophically they are Bitcoin OG's from the outset, and they are committed to the long term. And whilst not a fan of ARK, I think the ARK BTC ETF is also good. So your top 4 really are Blackrock, Fidelity, Ark, and Bitwise.

[gib]

I appreciate the responses.

Apologies if my recent energetic posts appear rude, my poor communication skills at work.

All good MayDay, and as for the comments about Australians, some of my best friends are Ozzies. They are great people once you get to know them and Oz is a great place to visit!

[f450]

The big boys are going to short BTC into the grave. Look at Gold, look at Silver. The prices have been heavily suppressed for decades. Same thing will happen to BTC and they will drive retail out. It will just become another commodity. The decentralization and the circumvention of the corrupt monetary system.... what BTC was designed to do..... have been destroyed in one fell swoop. I for one am impressed. They will now be trading paper BTC like paper silver and the price will be whatever Blackrock wants the price to be.

Those of us that trade the markets know that price discovery and reality can be and are often wildly divergent. And the movements are controlled by the big money. Now with futures trading made legal in the USA ... wow... lots of money to be made from the controlled "volatility".

I'm long MONERO ... its the only one left that does what BTC was designed to do and when people start realizing that, the value will explode.

[SOMEPARTS]

US govt likely holds millions of confiscated BTC. I never hear any talk of this.


"...the revelation in late 2013 that Bitcoin was, in fact, the opposite of untraceable—that its blockchain would actually allow researchers, tech companies, and law enforcement to trace and identify users with even more transparency than the existing financial system."


https://www.wired.com/story/27-year-old-codebreaker-busted-myth-bitcoins-anonymity/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

[SOMEPARTS]

The big boys are going to short BTC into the grave. Look at Gold, look at Silver. The prices have been heavily suppressed for decades. Same thing will happen to BTC and they will drive retail out. It will just become another commodity. The decentralization and the circumvention of the corrupt monetary system.... what BTC was designed to do..... have been destroyed in one fell swoop. I for one am impressed. They will now be trading paper BTC like paper silver and the price will be whatever Blackrock wants the price to be.

Those of us that trade the markets know that price discovery and reality can be and are often wildly divergent. And the movements are controlled by the big money. Now with futures trading made legal in the USA ... wow... lots of money to be made from the controlled "volatility".

I'm long MONERO ... its the only one left that does what BTC was designed to do and when people start realizing that, the value will explode.

Can it be blocked at the ISP level? If so - also worthless if it gets big enough to get a target on its back.

Everything digitally financial is derivative of actual value that benefits those at the top who have more control and access than the average person.

In other words, same old shit.

[Slapper]

Fellas, again, ignore the charlatans. Whoever thinks Blackrock or Fidelity are going to introduce a derivative product and then drive the price of the underlying asset into the ground really needs their heads checked: