Author Topic: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!  (Read 1767968 times)

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10175 on: January 20, 2024, 09:04:43 AM »
Fellas, again, ignore the charlatans. Whoever thinks Blackrock or Fidelity are going to introduce a derivative product and then drive the price of the underlying asset into the ground really needs their heads checked:



Fully agree! It amazes me always the idiots out there with conspiracy theories in situations where what is about to happen is blatantly obvious. Once in a lifetime opportunity here, and yet people are still not piling in. These are the same people who will pile in post 100K lol!

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10176 on: January 20, 2024, 09:17:55 AM »

Can it be blocked at the ISP level? If so - also worthless if it gets big enough to get a target on its back.

Everything digitally financial is derivative of actual value that benefits those at the top who have more control and access than the average person.

In other words, same old shit.

You should worry far more about not having Bitcoin, than about theoretical attacks...

https://btc-hijack.ethz.ch/#

As for Bitcoin, its decentralization is its biggest strength. This stems from its origins of being created from the bottom up, as opposed to the top down. And has been discussed many times before, there is far more incentive for any actor to support Bitcoin than to devote immense money and resources at attempting to impair it. So, if this is your concern, at the current size of the network, Bitcoin is your single safest and most egalitarian global store of wealth.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10177 on: January 20, 2024, 09:28:00 AM »
US govt likely holds millions of confiscated BTC. I never hear any talk of this.


Many Governments own Bitcoin, and many more will try to acquire Sats over time, whether through buying, exchanging, taxing, confiscating, etc, for many obvious reasons (and maybe some not so obvious).

As for how much BTC the US Govt holds, most estimates put it at around 200K Bitcoins. (Not "millions" as you suggest, although at 200K, that is around USD 8 Billion in current value).

As for why you "never hear any talk of this", which I suggest is that rather than conjuring up conspiracy theories, what you should focus your listening skills on is when people talk about how much debt the US has, and how quickly the USD will be devalued over time...

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10178 on: January 20, 2024, 09:36:03 AM »

"...the revelation in late 2013 that Bitcoin was, in fact, the opposite of untraceable—that its blockchain would actually allow researchers, tech companies, and law enforcement to trace and identify users with even more transparency than the existing financial system."

https://www.wired.com/story/27-year-old-codebreaker-busted-myth-bitcoins-anonymity/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

This is correct, although it is not a "revelation". This code is open source and this was known from day #1. Indeed, every single transaction on the block chain will forever be recorded.

I have explained many times to you, and to others on this thread that Bitcoin transactions are pseudonymous. This means that whist the transactions are not hidden, the person behind the transaction can be. If this is all too confusing for you, then simply rest assured that there are numerous L2 protocols you can use to completely disguise your identity of a BTC transaction, if that is your concern.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10179 on: January 20, 2024, 09:48:16 AM »
The big boys are going to short BTC into the grave. Look at Gold, look at Silver. The prices have been heavily suppressed for decades. Same thing will happen to BTC and they will drive retail out. It will just become another commodity. The decentralization and the circumvention of the corrupt monetary system.... what BTC was designed to do..... have been destroyed in one fell swoop. I for one am impressed. They will now be trading paper BTC like paper silver and the price will be whatever Blackrock wants the price to be.

Those of us that trade the markets know that price discovery and reality can be and are often wildly divergent. And the movements are controlled by the big money. Now with futures trading made legal in the USA ... wow... lots of money to be made from the controlled "volatility".

I'm long MONERO ... its the only one left that does what BTC was designed to do and when people start realizing that, the value will explode.

Wrong on numerous levels.

The Big Boys are pretty much going to HODL. If you understand the ETF structure, you would know why.

And as for the Big Boys who are not ETF managers, they will also very much be buying for the long term.

Again, look at where the incentives are.

Also, you are confused with your concerns of "paper Bitcoin". First, all the ETFs (at least in the US), will be backed 1:1 by BTC (and this will be independently audited). Second, (as we saw from the downfall of numerous BTC scams), everything is always ultimately kept pure at the base layer. Any kind of derivative scam gets discovered, called, and washed out.

What the Big Boys do is bring both legitimacy and massive fund inflows into this asset. And that means massive price increases ahead.

As for Monero, I would not write it off, but as I explained, if anonymity is your goal, there are plenty of ways to do this with BTC. And indeed BTC is much much better for this, as there is a far more liquid and legitimate demand for this asset, whereas Monero is like raising a red flag to illegitimate funds. In the finance, game, you need to think at least 1 steps ahead, and in the crypto game ideally 2.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10180 on: January 20, 2024, 10:50:25 AM »
And to the posts about who still argue that BTC should not be held as an investment because it has no calculatable intrinsic value, whereas gold as "real value" allow me to explain, (again...)

Bitcoin has no intrinsic value as such, but its value is derived because it’s so difficult to take away.
There are three ways our money can be confiscated:

1. Through monetary inflation, which confiscates the real value of our wealth by stealth.
2. Through the failure of banks and other financial institutions that have custody of our wealth.
3. Through the outright expropriation of our wealth as, (for example, as was suffered by European Jews in the 1930s or in the US when they confiscated gold).

Bitcoin cannot be confiscated by any of these methods. This is one of many reasons why it is superior even to gold, which is immune to inflation and bank runs but can be physically stolen (as Jews and gypsies found out during Nazi Germany and as Americans found out at one point in time when owning gold as a store of value was made illegal, and seized at boarders as many Russian's and Chinese found out when trying leave Russia and China recently.

There are theoretical ways someone could steal your Bitcoin, such as capturing you and then torturing you holding until you surrendered the keys for your digital wallet, but this would be hard work for a government to do on any scale, and in any case there are methods you can do to literally make it impossible for you to be able to provide the keys under duress.

Gold does have uses in industry, but as it no longer backs currencies, the most of its value has come from its role as a hard to seize defense against devaluation from money printing. We can see that during times of inflation (basically a means of effective confiscation of value) became a real risk, the gold price really took off.

Assuming a price of about $500 per ounce, if there were no liquid market and central banks didn’t hold it, gold’s monetary value ($2,000 per ounce) would exceed its intrinsic value for industrial use by four times. Favoring gold over Bitcoin because of its lack of intrinsic value is therefore a mistake because it only factors in 25% of the investment. The rest of gold’s value comes from its network.

The market for non-confiscatability assets is currently worth around $15 trillion and it will continue to grow. Bitcoin will displace gold for this function, because among its many superior qualities, it is harder to confiscate, and this will lead to an increasing and self-fulfilling adoption cycle, which is what we have seen play out ever since BTC's inception.

Now that I have dealt with you all, I still just need to get back to MayDay on the (mis)understanding that money printing leads to growth GDP. I will do that a little later, but am now going to chill for a bit.

GymnJuice

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10181 on: January 20, 2024, 11:16:47 AM »
Bitcoin has no intrinsic value as such, but its value is derived because it’s so difficult to take away.
There are three ways our money can be confiscated:

1. Through monetary inflation, which confiscates the real value of our wealth by stealth.
2. Through the failure of banks and other financial institutions that have custody of our wealth.
3. Through the outright expropriation of our wealth as, (for example, as was suffered by European Jews in the 1930s or in the US when they confiscated gold).

I know this isn't what you were getting at. But the bitcoin ETF won't help with 2 or 3. Only owning the actual bitcoin. So, the brokerage could fail, or the government could confiscate the ETF funds. I assume the ETF owned through the brokerage would still be SIPC insured through the brokerage.

Owning regular bitcoin through an exchange like Coinbase could also pose issues as well. The exchange could get hacked like FTX, Mt Gox etc. And this is not FDIC (or SIPC) insured so you lose your money with no recourse.

Is this correct thinking?

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10182 on: January 20, 2024, 11:47:10 AM »
All that writing Gib, and yet BTC is a dream for those already in control. There is nothing more centralized that a single ledger.

This thing is a lightning rod so that legitimate options don't crop up. Maybe it didn't start that way, but it has been co-opted as needed. Another asset class/relief valve in a sea of derivatives and musical chairs that is the shell game of "money".

I'm from the early days of BTC where this was supposed to be the people's money...uncorruptible, untraceable, uniflatable, outside the banks and wall st, etc.

Look at it now. Bleh


Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10183 on: January 20, 2024, 05:28:42 PM »

Now that I have dealt with you all, I still just need to get back to MayDay on the (mis)understanding that money printing leads to growth GDP. I will do that a little later, but am now going to chill for a bit.

Great informative posts gib 👍

My thoughts on money almost nobody agrees with. It’s fine, I am used to being the dumbest in the room.

The guy who makes my coffees tells me all about global economics and says I am massively wrong aswell. 

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10184 on: January 21, 2024, 05:54:40 AM »
Great informative posts gib 👍

My thoughts on money almost nobody agrees with. It’s fine, I am used to being the dumbest in the room.

The guy who makes my coffees tells me all about global economics and says I am massively wrong aswell.

Your second wave of inflation call is looking more and more plausible, but I would remind you my call for a new SPX all time high played out almost exactly how I called it back in October 8)

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10185 on: January 21, 2024, 05:34:14 PM »
Your second wave of inflation call is looking more and more plausible, but I would remind you my call for a new SPX all time high played out almost exactly how I called it back in October 8)

I closed 80% of my stock positions in Jan +34% for 9mths. S&P still open but I’ll close it this week.

No rate cut in March nor the months immediately following will cause the S&P to selloff.

In my 2020 strategy I had 3 inflationary waves. My strategy ends in the 2032-2034 window. 2nd upswing latest Mar 2025 which means an event happens prior to this date. Next Recession window remains in 2027.


Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10186 on: January 22, 2024, 08:40:57 AM »
I closed 80% of my stock positions in Jan +34% for 9mths. S&P still open but I’ll close it this week.

No rate cut in March nor the months immediately following will cause the S&P to selloff.

In my 2020 strategy I had 3 inflationary waves. My strategy ends in the 2032-2034 window. 2nd upswing latest Mar 2025 which means an event happens prior to this date. Next Recession window remains in 2027.

I'm expecting this year to be very choppy so mostly sitting it out. If we see a second inflationary wave then I think that will be it, basically not a repeat of 70's with 3 waves. Remember if inflation was measured the same way as in the 70's then the recent wave would have easily reached double figure percentages, so it's already very different from the 70s.

Anyway ETFs flows are still looking good for BTC. There was some evidence that the GBTC selling was FTX liquidating its $1.1b in GBTC holdings. Big if true


Grape Ape

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10187 on: January 22, 2024, 08:52:06 AM »
This is one of the best threads on this site - the guys in here really know what they are talking about.  If I ever decide to stop fucking around casually with this stuff, I could make real $.

But since I'm still casual:

I bought 1.3 ETH for $900.

Should I dump it now?  I'm just basing this on stuff I've read here where it's been said BTC will drop again before it goes back up.  I'm guessing ETH will follow suit.
Y

loco

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10188 on: January 22, 2024, 09:07:14 AM »
I thought the value of BTC was supposed to skyrocket if the ETFs were approved.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10189 on: January 22, 2024, 09:11:58 AM »
This is one of the best threads on this site - the guys in here really know what they are talking about.


Thanks, I appreciate that.  8)

Stock market melt up continues today. Clown world.

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10190 on: January 22, 2024, 09:30:34 AM »
This is one of the best threads on this site - the guys in here really know what they are talking about.  If I ever decide to stop fucking around casually with this stuff, I could make real $.

But since I'm still casual:

I bought 1.3 ETH for $900.

Should I dump it now?  I'm just basing this on stuff I've read here where it's been said BTC will drop again before it goes back up.  I'm guessing ETH will follow suit.

Numbers aren't adding up right now so no one really knows what's going on and if they do it's in their best interest not to tell anyone.

So basically do nothing. If you have a good entry (like you do) just ride it out. If you're waiting to buy then just wait until things settle down.

Grape Ape

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10191 on: January 22, 2024, 09:38:47 AM »
Numbers aren't adding up right now so no one really knows what's going and if they do it's in their best interest not to tell anyone.

So basically do nothing. If you have a good entry (like you do) just ride it out. If you're waiting to buy then just until things settle down.

Thanks.

No I was just being greedy = figuring I'd dump and then rebuy.

Basically playing stupid and thinking I can time the market lol.
Y

GymnJuice

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10192 on: January 22, 2024, 03:24:23 PM »
I thought the value of BTC was supposed to skyrocket if the ETFs were approved.

My guess is that will be more of a long term phenomenon. I think the average investor has their stocks and mutual funds in their retirement accounts and they may not make short term trades. I put some money in bitcoin once they approved the ETFs. Bitcoin is down since then so the ETF is as well, but it has only been 10 days or so. If I'm still down after a year or two then I was wrong. But I think more people will get into bitcoin now that they have a way to do so through their usual brokerage.   

loco

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10193 on: January 22, 2024, 05:10:33 PM »
My guess is that will be more of a long term phenomenon. I think the average investor has their stocks and mutual funds in their retirement accounts and they may not make short term trades. I put some money in bitcoin once they approved the ETFs. Bitcoin is down since then so the ETF is as well, but it has only been 10 days or so. If I'm still down after a year or two then I was wrong. But I think more people will get into bitcoin now that they have a way to do so through their usual brokerage.

Here is only one example of what I kept hearing and reading from experts:


With ETF Approval Odds At 90%, Major Bank Says Bitcoin Price Hits $100,000 in 2024

NOV 29, 2023

"A leading analyst with Bloomberg has confirmed that there is still a 90% likelihood that at least one highly-anticipated spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) product is approved for the U.S. by January 10, 2024.

And as investor enthusiasm around such a product continues to build, British multinational bank Standard Chartered has doubled down on its prediction that the bitcoin price will reach $100,000 on its heels."


https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/etf-approval-odds-at-90-percent-bank-says-bitcoin-price-hits-100000-in-2024

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10194 on: January 22, 2024, 06:15:57 PM »
Here is only one example of what I kept hearing and reading from experts:


With ETF Approval Odds At 90%, Major Bank Says Bitcoin Price Hits $100,000 in 2024

NOV 29, 2023

"A leading analyst with Bloomberg has confirmed that there is still a 90% likelihood that at least one highly-anticipated spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) product is approved for the U.S. by January 10, 2024.

And as investor enthusiasm around such a product continues to build, British multinational bank Standard Chartered has doubled down on its prediction that the bitcoin price will reach $100,000 on its heels."


https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/etf-approval-odds-at-90-percent-bank-says-bitcoin-price-hits-100000-in-2024

You are quoting an article that's quoting an article about a price prediction a so called expert made. Maybe that confused you or maybe your reading comprehension isn't up to to it, but this is the key quote.

“Things are going as expected, according to Standard Chartered Bank, reiterating its April forecast that bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024,

It's January right now. HTH

loco

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10195 on: January 22, 2024, 07:19:38 PM »
You are quoting an article that's quoting an article about a price prediction a so called expert made. Maybe that confused you or maybe your reading comprehension isn't up to to it, but this is the key quote.

“Things are going as expected, according to Standard Chartered Bank, reiterating its April forecast that bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024,

It's January right now. HTH

Fair enough!  That’s an article someone sent me back in November, and I should have read the entire thing before posting it here as an example, bad example.

What I kept hearing is that as soon as ETFs were approved, people would rush to buy BTC anticipating its value to go up, which in itself would drive up its value.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10196 on: January 23, 2024, 04:27:00 AM »
Fair enough!  That’s an article someone sent me back in November, and I should have read the entire thing before posting it here as an example, bad example.

What I kept hearing is that as soon as ETFs were approved, people would rush to buy BTC anticipating its value to go up, which in itself would drive up its value.

You were right, that is exactly what mainstream said.

My outline of Saylor and Barry will come back to haunt people.

I warned about price suppression when the ETF went live. Grayscale has dumped 90,000 coins so all those incoming ETF funds got a free ride.

We were at 48k. ETF launched. Now at 38k. Bullish price suppression.

Saylor total legend dumping on shareholders is pretty funny.

loco

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10197 on: January 23, 2024, 05:00:23 AM »
You were right, that is exactly what mainstream said.

My outline of Saylor and Barry will come back to haunt people.

I warned about price suppression when the ETF went live. Grayscale has dumped 90,000 coins so all those incoming ETF funds got a free ride.

We were at 48k. ETF launched. Now at 38k. Bullish price suppression.

Saylor total legend dumping on shareholders is pretty funny.

Interesting.

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10198 on: January 23, 2024, 11:25:37 AM »
Fair enough!  That’s an article someone sent me back in November, and I should have read the entire thing before posting it here as an example, bad example.

What I kept hearing is that as soon as ETFs were approved, people would rush to buy BTC anticipating its value to go up, which in itself would drive up its value.

The ETF filings/approval was a narrative. It was either gonna set up a bull run or it wasn't. No one really knows when ETF inflows will actually start sending BTC price up. It could happen tomorrow or a year from now. Again no one really knows, but the way the ETFs have been set up it's something that will eventually  happen and it's not something that can be priced in.

The next narrative (mentioned in the article) will be ol' reliable and that's the halving in April. Typically BTC price might spike before then and some might say it's finally because of ETFs. Again no one really knows so be dubious about any such claims. The $100K price mentioned still fits the price trends with prior halving cycles, so even if BTC gets to that figure it might have had very little to do with the ETFs.

ETFs are still however very bullish for BTC, but only for the very long term holder as in someone who is holding for years if not a decades. Anyone else is gonna get chewed up and spat out by the price action.

GymnJuice

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10199 on: January 23, 2024, 05:39:55 PM »
Quote
The crypto asset manager that forced U.S. regulators’ hand in approving bitcoin exchange-traded funds has lost billions from their launch.

Investors cashed out $2.8 billion from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust after it converted into an ETF on Jan. 11, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data through Friday.

In contrast, nine newly launched spot-bitcoin ETFs have drawn about $4 billion in inflows within their first six trading days, with funds from BlackRock and Fidelity Investments each attracting more than $1 billion in inflows.

The Securities and Exchange Commission approved the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs earlier this month after repeatedly rejecting applications for such funds on the basis that the underlying market was susceptible to fraud. When approving the bitcoin ETFs, SEC Chair Gary Gensler said a court ruling last year in favor of Grayscale had compelled the change.

For years, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, known by its ticker symbol GBTC, was one of the few options for individual investors to get exposure to bitcoin without having to purchase the cryptocurrency directly. But GBTC wasn’t an ETF, and investors couldn’t easily redeem shares for the underlying bitcoin. The fund’s shares would trade at a premium or a discount to the underlying value of the bitcoin it held. Since early 2021, the fund had traded at an increasingly steep discount to the underlying bitcoin it held, peaking at nearly 50% in December 2022.

Grayscale sued the SEC in 2022 after the agency rejected its previous bid to turn its bitcoin trust into an ETF. The fund’s discount has narrowed to near zero after it transformed into an ETF.

Investors taking profits on GBTC’s price gain and moving to lower-fee competitors have helped drag crypto markets lower, according to analysts at JPMorgan.

Crypto investors had hoped that the new bitcoin ETFs would unlock a gush of money from individual investors into bitcoin, boosting the price of the digital currency. But since the SEC approval, the price of bitcoin has fallen over 10%. The largest cryptocurrency traded at $39,852 Monday afternoon, down from $46,000 on Jan. 10 when the funds were approved.

An intense fee war among asset managers had broken out even before the funds’ launch. While Grayscale slashed the fee on its bitcoin trust to 1.5% from 2%, rivals including BlackRock and Fidelity offered promotional rates as low as zero for the first several months.

Michael Sonnenshein, Grayscale’s chief executive, said the fund’s 1.5% fee is warranted given its “liquidity, tight spreads, and a decadelong track record.”

George Bodine, a 67-year-old retired airline captain in Covington, Ky., said he would sell his GBTC shares soon and reinvest the proceeds in similar funds offered by BlackRock, Fidelity and VanEck. An investor in Grayscale’s fund since 2020, Bodine said GBTC’s 1.5% management fee makes it an outlier among competitors and “a grievous mistake.”

One reason for some investors to hold on to GBTC despite the high fee might be taxes. Investors who own GBTC in taxable accounts and are considering switching to a cheaper ETF could get hit with big capital-gains tax bills. This is especially true for those who bought the fund while it was trading at a big discount and are now sitting on huge gains.
Bankrupt crypto exchange FTX sold a large portion of its GBTC holdings, according to people familiar with the matter.

FTX held more than 22 million units of GBTC worth $597 million as of October last year, according to bankruptcy filings. FTX declined to comment.

John Hoffman, Grayscale’s managing director of sales and distribution, said it has only been a few days since GBTC launched as the largest spot-bitcoin ETF with $28 billion in assets, and investors tend to use large capital-markets ETFs in a variety of investing strategies.

“We anticipate GBTC’s diverse shareholder base will continue to deploy strategies that impact inflows and outflows,” he said.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/grayscale-led-the-fight-for-bitcoin-etfs-now-its-fund-is-bleeding-billions-c9c5d925

From WSJ. Expands on what other posters said above about why the price has dropped since the ETF approval.