Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[gib]

Just reposting another earlier post of mine, in response to people who worried "the price was falling" post BTC ETFs down past 43K. We can now, in hindsight, see that I was once again right...

In the short term we obviously see outflow from GBTC and inflows to the ETFs, and some volatility and dislocation in the process. Some sellers of GBTC are not immediately moving over into another ETF, and ETF funds will take time for the funds to come in. In the short term, we might therefore see price impact as GBTC unloads due to outflows. But all this will settle. The big picture is this is super positive, with the opportunities for fund inflows massively opened and diversified. BTC is limited in supply. Demand and inflows are poised to massively increase. And with a scarce asset that means increase in price. And that won't be immediate - it will start to happen over the next months and years and decades. We will look back at this very moment as an absolute opportunity of a lifetime in hindsight, and any little blip from 46K to 43K etc will be a rounding error on a graph zoomed out.

Massive opportunity to acquire. For anyone who is only a partial-coiner (or a no-coiner) use this time to become a whole coiner. If you are higher up on the BTC food chain, use this opportunity to move on up.

I started as a shrimp and over time evolved into a fish. Don't think I will get to Dolphin, but may just use this window of opportunity to become a slightly larger Dolphin.

Shrimp: less than 1 BTC
Crab: 1 to 10 BTC
Octopus: 10 to 50 BTC
Fish: 50 to 100 BTC
Dolphin: 100 to 500 BTC
Shark: 500 to 1000 BTC
Whale: >1000 BTC
Humpback: >5000 BTC

[GymnJuice]

I think it will go to zero

I think this is unlikely but anything is possible. Do you think the US would outlaw owning bitcoin like they did once for owning gold?

[sculpture]

Why would outlawing it affect the price?

If anything it will push up the price further

The US govt can't outlaw bitcoin.

Can't touch it

[Mayday]

Why would outlawing it affect the price?

If anything it will push up the price further

The US govt can't outlaw bitcoin.

Can't touch it

Not a ban per se, The Govts are going to eliminate the on/off ramp on Domestic exchanges. So while you can still use a wallet, you can’t exit into your local banking system.

There was some things being done by uniswap and metamask which sounds like regulatory requirements but if the ramps vanish then it’s kind of pointless. As in you can’t pay tax from crypto gains if you can’t exit into the banking system because they removed the ramps. So you have no way to pay the taxes anyway.

No.

DTCC positions have not significantly changed from earlier this year (when we were much lower).

My perspective is different.

*i was in at 17.5k and nobody was around buying with me, everyone was bearish.
*At 25k everyone was bearish.
*At 32k the crowd felt 50/50.
*Once it got to 42k my 72yr old Mum called me to tell me the Bitcoin ETF was going to get approved
*At 48k this thread came back alive with sky high targets, no-coiner talk, retail hasn’t arrived etc.
*At 50k Joe Biden posts laser eyes on X

[gib]

I think this is unlikely but anything is possible. Do you think the US would outlaw owning bitcoin like they did once for owning gold?

If you read this whole thread, you will see I have explained on numerous occasions why it is not possible for any Government to "outlaw" Bitcoin. Just as it is not possible they could "outlaw" the sun, or gravity, or Pi, or the fact that 1+1 = 2.

Indeed, we have seen Bitcoin legitimized further with 11 Bitcoin ETF securities now listed on exchanges in the US, and being integrated and adopted by thousands of banks and financial institutions across the US. If anything, the US wishes to become a world leader in BTC adoption (because the alternative would be very detrimental to all of us).

[Mayday]

If you read this whole thread, you will see I have explained on numerous occasions why it is not possible for any Government to "outlaw" Bitcoin. Just as it is not possible they could "outlaw" the sun, or gravity, or Pi, or the fact that 1+1 = 2.

Indeed, we have seen Bitcoin legitimized further with 11 Bitcoin ETF securities now listed on exchanges in the US, and being integrated and adopted by thousands of banks and financial institutions across the US. If anything, the US wishes to become a world leader in BTC adoption (because the alternative would be very detrimental to all of us).

I think many are getting confused thinking it’s a Bitcoin ban. It is only self custody they are looking to cut off. The narrative used to drive this is self owned crypto is used for people trafficking and drugs. The US stance is it does not matter the dollar value used but the fact it can’t be used for those things. 

You are 100% right, there are more regulations now and approved ETFs which legitimise BTC to make it a govt supported thing.

The self custody is more an ETH and other ecosystem threat because that where the worst degeneracy occurs. It’s a putrid space filled with rugpulls and scammers. It’s likely get an ETH ETF approved first before they rug pull the entire ETH system by removal of on/off ramps to exchanges and banks.

BTC has the advantage over ETH because it doesn’t have layers of shit hanging off it influencing it’s valuation.

[obsidian]

BTC has the advantage over ETH because it doesn’t have layers of shit hanging off it influencing it’s valuation.

Those layers are necessary to increase performance and be decentralized. Solana opted to have all on one chain and last week it had another shutdown.

It's hard to be decentralized and fast.

Bitcoin has been following Ethereum with the push for smart contracts, ordinals, layer 2's. Vitalik Buterin literally developed Ethereum after he could not build smart contracts on Bitcoin.

Your post does not make sense. Bitcoin is trying to play catchup with Ethereum's layers of shit capabilities. It's slow as fuck and will need layers and updates.

https://unchainedcrypto.com/stacks-a-bitcoin-layer-2-protocol-sees-all-time-high-in-total-value-locked/

[obsidian]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/franklin-templeton-files-spot-ethereum-225022386.html

Franklin Templeton files for spot ethereum ETF

(Reuters) - Franklin Templeton on Monday disclosed that it had officially filed for a spot ethereum exchange-traded fund, becoming the eighth player vying to introduce a similar product in the market.

In January, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 spot bitcoin ETFs in a watershed moment for the crypto industry, which had been demanding regulatory approval for those products for more than a decade.

A spot crypto ETF tracks the market price of the underlying digital asset, giving investors exposure to the token without having to buy it.

With Franklin's registration, there are now eight ETF providers competing to introduce spot ether ETFs, all of whom rolled out spot bitcoin products in January.

While the two biggest new entrants in the spot bitcoin ETF race, BlackRock and Fidelity, now have assets of $4.18 billion and $3.49 billion respectively, Franklin Templeton hovers near the bottom of the league table.

According to data from BitMEX Research, assets in the Franklin Bitcoin ETF totaled only $77 million. Seven out of the nine newly launched spot bitcoin ETFs now boast assets north of $100 million.

The veteran asset management firm founded in 1947 is not throwing in the towel just yet and is spending to market the spot bitcoin ETF in Google ads.

Last month, U.S. SEC delayed its decision on an application by crypto asset manager Grayscale Investments to convert its ethereum trust product into a spot ETF. BlackRock's application at launching a similar product was also delayed by the market regulator. VanEck was the first to file for a spot ethereum ETF, which the SEC must either approve or deny by May 23.

Coinbase Custody, a unit of crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN.O), will hold the proposed ETF's ether in custody. The company is also the proposed custodian of BlackRock's ethereum ETF.

[Mayday]

Those layers are necessary to increase performance and be decentralized. Solana opted to have all on one chain and last week it had another shutdown.

It's hard to be decentralized and fast.

Bitcoin has been following Ethereum with the push for smart contracts, ordinals, layer 2's. Vitalik Buterin literally developed Ethereum after he could not build smart contracts on Bitcoin.

Your post does not make sense.

A network’s value is based on the number of users. This is why everyone talks adoption. You agree yes?

Ok good. So for gib’s side, BTC is standalone and does nothing and nobody uses it for anything. its current network users are all sitting in BTC to sit in BTC.

ETH has a massive layer 2 userbase and NFTs. To purchase those the highest liquidity pairs are using ETH to buy them. Much like in 2017 BTC was used to buy alt coins. Same thing. So the user base of ETH includes the user base of all the degen alts and NFTs aswell as those are traded using ETH.

If future govt regulation kills off degen alts and possibly NFTs by removing exchange deposits, that user base diminishes very quickly and therefore ETH loses a good deal of user base and also means loss of value by default.

In the last 4yrs banks went from performing P2P transfers in 2 days to instant transfer for cents. ETH today costs $21 to move and The network cannot perform under load without sky high costs. Imagine if your bank charged $21 to buy a can of Coke? People would have a fit yet in crypto it’s pushed aside as a non-issue.

BTC following my scenario right now which is BTC in it’s proper bullrun leg to cycle peak. If you have 120k in ETH right now, you should be happy to turn that into 240k this cycle and super happy to turn that into 360k.

[obsidian]

A network’s value is based on the number of users. This is why everyone talks adoption. You agree yes?

Ok good. So for gib’s side, BTC is standalone and does nothing and nobody uses it for anything. its current network users are all sitting in BTC to sit in BTC.

ETH has a massive layer 2 userbase and NFTs. To purchase those the highest liquidity pairs are using ETH to buy them. Much like in 2017 BTC was used to buy alt coins. Same thing. So the user base of ETH includes the user base of all the degen alts and NFTs aswell as those are traded using ETH.

If future govt regulation kills off degen alts and possibly NFTs by removing exchange deposits, that user base diminishes very quickly and therefore ETH loses a good deal of user base and also means loss of value by default.

In the last 4yrs banks went from performing P2P transfers in 2 days to instant transfer for cents. ETH today costs $21 to move and The network cannot perform under load without sky high costs. Imagine if your bank charged $21 to buy a can of Coke? People would have a fit yet in crypto it’s pushed aside as a non-issue.

BTC following my scenario right now which is BTC in it’s proper bullrun leg to cycle peak.

Where are you getting your info regarding these potential future government actions? Can you post a news link?

And where are you getting your ETH transaction fees?

The current average Ethereum transaction fee is $1.754

https://ycharts.com/indicators/ethereum_average_transaction_fee#:~:text=Ethereum%20Average%20Transaction%20Fee%20is,184.3%25%20from%20one%20year%20ago.

I personally don't get the prevailing anti-Ethereum sentiment. It's superior to Bitcoin. It's inflation is currently lower, it provides interest to stakers, the proof of stake network uses a lot less energy.

The Dencun upgrade will reduce fees a further 10x. We'll have to see how that changes the ETH supply.

https://icoholder.com/en/news/ethereums-dencun-upgrade-sparks-debate-on-ether-supply-impact

The upcoming Dencun upgrade on the Ethereum network is raising discussions about potential impacts on the supply of ether, according to insights from CoinShares Ethereum research associate Luke Nolan. The upgrade introduces the blobspace mechanism, an alternative to the current transactional calldata method, which could lead to reduced gas usage and, consequently, less ether being burned.

Currently, all ether used to pay gas base fees for transactions on the Ethereum network is burned. The Dencun upgrade's shift to blobspace, with lower gas costs, is expected to decrease gas prices, affecting the amount of ether burned. Transactional calldata, comprising 90% of Layer 2 gas fees, is likely to see a reduction in usage as Layer 2s adopt blobspace.

Nolan highlighted the potential impact on the growth of ether supply, stating that reduced gas prices could impact Ethereum's deflation mechanism, where gas burn decreases the circulating supply of ether. However, he emphasized that Layer 1 demand is a more significant driver of deflation, and the Dencun upgrade aims to bring users back to the network with lower transaction fees.

While acknowledging a potential decrease in gas prices, Nolan reassured that concerns about Ethereum becoming significantly inflationary are unfounded. The Dencun upgrade's primary goal is to decrease gas fees for users transacting with roll-ups and solidify Ethereum's market share, leading to positive long-term effects.

Bitcoin has architectural and structural issues facing it in the future as miner yields decrease. They are now touting ordinals (which accidentally became possible because developers fucked up) to help supplement the fees for miners. It's a valid concern. The Bitcoin network security is directly tied to the hash rate. Less miners =  easier to hijack the network. While Ordinals bring new use cases to Bitcoin, they have also made transactions on the network more expensive and slower to settle. Over the past year, the average transaction fee has soared upwards of 25x, according to Blockworks research.

https://blockworks.co/news/ordinals-impact-on-bitcoin-network

Bitcoin's only advantage is it was the first crypto currency. The 21 million cap is not unique either. Zcash has the same cap and is more anonymous. Gib is a huge proponent of being anonymous. Bitcoin does not have Zcash's privacy features. I get it, governments don't want privacy which is why Zcash has underperformed = because people are afraid it would be banned or delisted.

https://decrypt.co/211717/privacy-coins-monero-zcash-horizen-at-risk-of-delisting-by-binance

Shielded Zcash transactions are encrypted, and users' addresses, their transaction amount and memo field are completely private. If you use a shielded Zcash address to send and receive ZEC, your transaction history and wallet balance are not traceable.

https://z.cash/learn/is-zcash-traceable/#:~:text=Shielded%20Zcash%20transactions%20are%20encrypted,wallet%20balance%20are%20not%20traceable.

[Flexacon]

A network’s value is based on the number of users. This is why everyone talks adoption. You agree yes?

Ok good. So for gib’s side, BTC is standalone and does nothing and nobody uses it for anything. its current network users are all sitting in BTC to sit in BTC.

ETH has a massive layer 2 userbase and NFTs. To purchase those the highest liquidity pairs are using ETH to buy them. Much like in 2017 BTC was used to buy alt coins. Same thing. So the user base of ETH includes the user base of all the degen alts and NFTs aswell as those are traded using ETH.

If future govt regulation kills off degen alts and possibly NFTs by removing exchange deposits, that user base diminishes very quickly and therefore ETH loses a good deal of user base and also means loss of value by default.

A lot has changed in the last 12-14 months so you might need to rethink all this.

You can now do degen stuff like mint NFTs on bitcoin through ordinals. It's been happening for a while (pre ETF approvals) and it causes gas to spike just like on ETH. Bitcoin also now has brc20 which is is similar to erc20 on Eth, so shit coining on Bitcoin is also now a thing and has also already been happening for a while.

As for the US government regulations killing degen alts, well they tried that with Solana and yet it's somehow been the best performing major alt in the last 12 months.

Also anyone who has staked their ETH will make plenty of money through points and airdrops. ETH could do nothing price wise for the next 12 to 24 months and ETH stakers will still print multiples.

[obsidian]

A lot has changed in the last 12-14 months so you might need to rethink all this.

You can now do degen stuff like mint NFTs on bitcoin through ordinals. It's been happening for a while (pre ETF approvals) and it causes gas to spike just like on ETH. Bitcoin also now has brc20 which is is similar to erc20 on Eth, so shit coining on Bitcoin is also now a thing and has also already been happening for a while.

As for the US government regulations killing degen alts, well they tried that with Solana and yet it's somehow been the best performing major alt in the last 12 months.

Also anyone who has staked their ETH will make plenty of money through points and airdrops. ETH could do nothing price wise for the next 12 to 24 months and ETH stakers will still print multiples.

Ordinals was an accidental development because of a developer bug.

It's funny how Michael Saylor kept dissing Ethereum because it changes a lot. The interviewers never thought to ask him how that's any different from Bitcoin being changed by developers. LMAO! Saylor bought into Bitcoin and won't ever leave to avoid paying capital gains tax. So he has to pump his bag, and badmouth other projects in the process. A very sleazy behavior.

The Bitcoin network will need a lot of upgrades to be able to do what Ethereum has been doing the past few years. It does not have the TPS to make it happen currently on a large scale.

[Flexacon]

Ordinals was an accidental development because of a developer bug.

It's funny how Michael Saylor kept dissing Ethereum because it changes a lot. The interviewers never thought to ask him how that's any different from Bitcoin being changed by developers. LMAO! Saylor bought into Bitcoin and won't ever leave to avoid paying capital gains tax. So he has to pump his bag, and badmouth other projects in the process. A very sleazy behavior.

The Bitcoin network will need a lot of upgrades to be able to do what Ethereum has been doing the past few years. It does not have the TPS to make it happen currently on a large scale.

Yeah Ethereum is still leaps and bounds ahead in that area. Last couple of weeks they came up with an experimental 404 standard which allows tokenisation of NFTs. This will be rocket fuel for degen stuff. Also potentially huge for real world stuff regarding ownership and lending.

I posted about the ordinals when the bug was first discovered and how one cat eating Bitcoin core developer and some maxis wanted it expunged. They are still trying, but failing.

The most bullish thing about Blackrock and them coming in for Bitcoin is that once they have some control over the narrative, they will far better suited at dealing with structural issues that might come up in the future with bitcoin than some of the current developers. They are already hiring their own in-house bitcoin core developers.

[gib]

The Bitcoin network will need a lot of upgrades to be able to do what Ethereum has been doing the past few years. It does not have the TPS to make it happen currently on a large scale.

I can believe you are still saying this crap. BTC is the world's digital monetary unit. Absolutely rock solid, reliable, global store of value. The best of the absolute mess that is Ethereum is being built on top of the BTC base-layer. How hard can that be to comprehend?

[affeman]

BTC is done. The ETFs bought up more than 5% of all the BTC stock in existence within a few days and the price is still miles away from the all-time high lol

This is the last pump, they will run out of ideas to keep blowing up the bubble, and the next price drop is going to be lethal.

Sell off that crap while u can still make a few bucks, it could be over any day.

[Mayday]

A lot has changed in the last 12-14 months so you might need to rethink all this.

You can now do degen stuff like mint NFTs on bitcoin through ordinals. It's been happening for a while (pre ETF approvals) and it causes gas to spike just like on ETH. Bitcoin also now has brc20 which is is similar to erc20 on Eth, so shit coining on Bitcoin is also now a thing and has also already been happening for a while.

As for the US government regulations killing degen alts, well they tried that with Solana and yet it's somehow been the best performing major alt in the last 12 months.

Also anyone who has staked their ETH will make plenty of money through points and airdrops. ETH could do nothing price wise for the next 12 to 24 months and ETH stakers will still print multiples.

I’ve been in and continued buying at lows for almost 2yrs. I have the advantage of seeing narratives, beliefs, opinions change through the price levels. I’m not going to bet against JPMorgan, the Fed or Blackrock.

Besides, my crypto nightmare scenario is intact and i already see us in the bullrun so I have no reason to change. It’s all my own strategy this time from my entry to the end. I have ETH to 3,100 soon and if alts have a decent run I’ll dump half my holdings.

[gib]

BTC is done. The ETFs bought up more than 5% of all the BTC stock in existence within a few days and the price is still miles away from the all-time high lol

This is the last pump, they will run out of ideas to keep blowing up the bubble, and the next price drop is going to be lethal.

Sell off that crap while u can still make a few bucks, it could be over any day.

The ETFs currently have about 1% of all BTC which will ever exist (not 5%).

However, ongoing demand will lead to increases in price, which is what we are starting to see now. This asset will exist and thrive for decades. Anyone who as BTC would be a fool to sell. And anyone who does not have any would be a fool to stay a nocoiner.

[Flexacon]

The ETFs currently have about 1% of all BTC which will ever exist (not 5%).

However, ongoing demand will lead to increases in price, which is what we are starting to see now. This asset will exist and thrive for decades. Anyone who as BTC would be a fool to sell. And anyone who does not have any would be a fool to stay a nocoiner.

Affeman is right about 5% as you forgot to include GBTC. He is obviously wrong about the rest.

ETF inflows had their first big influence on traders yesterday/today. Couple of whales shorted BTC down to 48,000s yesterday based on the CPI print. This morning IBITs inflows got released and it exceeded all expectations. Those shorts got squeezed. Affeman has got this backwards and is warning the wrong people.

[gib]

Affeman is right about 5% as you forgot to include GBTC. He is obviously wrong about the rest.

ETF inflows had their first big influence on traders yesterday/today. Couple of whales shorted BTC down to 48,000s yesterday based on the CPI print. This morning IBITs inflows got released and it exceeded all expectations. Those shorts got squeezed. Affeman has got this backwards and is warning the wrong people.

Ah, yes correct if you include GBTC - but theirs were accumulated long before the ETF launches. Lets see how much the ETFs gobble up - but either way, many people forget that the ETF demand is driven by end customer demand for the ETFs. Its not as though the ETF providers are just buying up BTC with their own funds. But in any case, we all know price will rise massively if ETF demand continues. I can't image any more than 10% of all BTC ever being held in the various US ETFs, as prices will rise making as supply of sellers willing to sell shrinks - but time will tell - even if it is, I would have no concerns. Indeed I am very happy to see big money flowing in via any vehicle available.

[Flexacon]

Ah, yes correct if you include GBTC - but theirs were accumulated long before the ETF launches. Lets see how much the ETFs gobble up - but either way, many people forget that the ETF demand is driven by end customer demand for the ETFs. Its not as though the ETF providers are just buying up BTC with their own funds. But in any case, we all know price will rise massively if ETF demand continues. I can't image any more than 10% of all BTC ever being held in the various US ETFs, as prices will rise making as supply of sellers willing to sell shrinks - but time will tell - even if it is, I would have no concerns. Indeed I am very happy to see big money flowing in via any vehicle available.

I can see it going higher than 10% but more for the reason that big OG whale holders redistribute some of the BTC the hold in cold wallets into ETFs. Makes sense to diversify and it makes things like inheritance easier to manage.

Anyway indices look potentially ready to blast off for the next couple of days, just a couple more boxes left to tick there. If it does let's see if BTC goes along for the ride.

[gib]

I can see it going higher than 10% but more for the reason that big OG whale holders redistribute some of the BTC the hold in cold wallets into ETFs. Makes sense to diversify and it makes things like inheritance easier to manage.

Anyway indices look potentially ready to blast off for the next couple of days, just a couple more boxes left to tick there. If it does let's see if BTC goes along for the ride.

I would not see BTC in cold storage going into ETF's driving price up as much as supply being bought up by the ETFs from ever dwindling supply on exchanges. 

At this rate, it seems every 1 USD Billion of inflows, is correlating to around an increase of 2% in BTC price (which equates to around USD $1000 on BTC price). Hence my earlier post a few weeks back predicting what would happen to BTC price over the next 2 years.

[Mayday]

ETH gas costs right now.

[gib]

I do not comment on alts too often, but some may recall I have in the past urged all to look into FILECOIN.

See now this development. I will say it one more time. Take a look at FIL and seriously consider. If you are looking for an emerging alt superstar, this may be it.

https://crypto.news/solana-filecoin-unite-boost-decentralized-data-storage/

[Flexacon]

What's all this Eth, File and shitcoin nonesense? 

Last week saw $2.5B flows from the ETFs and Coinbase is down to its barebones in BTC holdings, lowest in nearly 10 years. Doesn't look like it's gonna be long before ...

[obsidian]

ETH gas costs right now.

ETH chart going back to 2015. It looks fairly healthy - looks like an up-trend to me. Bitcoin has high fees. Institutions don't care about these fees, which can be mitigated by using L2s for your transactions. And more upgrades are slated for release to address these issues.

Ethereum gives yield AND is deflationary. Hopefully, it stays that way when fees are reduced. But that's a pretty attractive proposition for an investor. Bitcoin does not provide any yields. You HODL and that's it. Curious to see if Ethereum eventually does flip Bitcoin! Gib incoming in 3,2,1...