Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[SouJerz]

I ended up selling the gold and just received the money.

BTC smart idea, like gib said you could DCA as there will more than likely be 5-10% swings up and down.

[SouJerz]

If Ether ETF is denied by SEC do you see it being approved further in the year or in 2025?

[Mayday]

I'm leaning towards delay if not rejection.. Something along the lines of the SEC hinting on a reason why they intend to reject it, Blackrock and a few others withdraw their applications, but later down the line they reapply as the potential reason for rejection is no longer applicable.

Cheers for the info on the ETFs.

See how May goes. I have Mar-Jul as an event window for S&P which will take crypto with it so I’d prefer an ETH ETF delay to August.

If they are backed into a corner and have to approve, the timing will have some meaning. Like with BTC prior to the halving made sense.

[obsidian]

It it looks like a duck, it is probably a duck. ETH is a security. It meets all the basic definitions of a security. The SEC did not fuck XRP holders. Rather Ripples did, but illegally issuing tokens. And "investors" did likewise, by not understanding what they were buying and the legal risks involved.

Now, does that mean that the SEC might approve? It's always possible (although that could lead to numerous lawsuits, contesting the SEC's incorrect application of the law). If they approve ETH, it really opens almost any unregistered security to be put into an ETF wrapper, which would of course be insane.

Time will tell. Also, even if they do approve, I am not sure how much demand there would be. It might well be a real disappointment. If I was GBTC, I would lie low on pushing ETH, continue to thrive on BTC, and not put more resources into fighting a battle which may cause me harm and legal costs, and which is an any case ethically corrupt.

It's not a security. Gensler himself claimed so in the past, along with Jay Clayton.

Ripple did not fuck holders. The SEC did when they claimed XRP was a security in their lawsuit. This prompted exchanges to delist XRP. Ultimately Ripple won the lawsuit and XRP was not deemed a security. You're claiming it is when the courts decided otherwise. You're talking out of your ass because your position is in BTC like Michael Saylor and you are trying to pump your own bags. Nothing wrong with that, just telling it how it is.

You did not answer my question. Are you mining Bitcoin or developing it? Can you agree that you are expecting to profit off the work of others?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/newsflash-sec-chief-confirms-analysis-134656111.html#:~:text=Securities%20and%20Exchange%20Commission%20Chairman%20Jay%20Clayton%20has,were%20initially%20sold%20through%20an%20illegal%20securities%20offering.

Newsflash: SEC Chief Confirms Analysis That Ethereum isn’t a Security

Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Jay Clayton has formally confirmed existing staff analysis that Ethereum and other similar decentralized cryptocurrency assets are not securities, even if they were initially sold through an illegal securities offering.

SEC Chairman Agrees with Analysis That Says Ethereum, Similar Crypto Assets are Not Securities

Clayton made this revelation in a letter sent to US House Rep. Ted Budd, who had requested that the SEC provide clarity on whether SEC Director of the Division of Corporate Finance William Hinman spoke for the agency when he said that Ethereum was not a security or was merely voicing his own opinion.

While Clayton did not reference Ethereum or any other cryptocurrency by name, he confirmed that he agrees with Hinman’s analysis of what crypto assets fall under the securities classification.

In a key section he writes:

“Your letter also asks whether I agree with certain statements concerning digital tokens in Director Hinman’s June 2018 speech. I agree that the analysis of whether a digital asset is offered or sold as a security is not static and does not strictly inhere to the instrument. A digital asset may be offered and sold initially as a security because it meets the definition of an investment contract, but that designation may change over time if the digital asset later is offered and sold in such a way that it will no longer meet that definition. I agree with Director Hinman’s explanation of how a digital asset transaction may no longer represent an investment contract if, for example, purchasers would no longer reasonably expect a person or group to carry out the essential managerial or entrepreneurial efforts. Under those circumstances, the digital asset may not represent an investment contract under the Howey framework.”

[obsidian]

Good article on this topic here:

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/03/09/what-happens-if-ethereum-is-a-security/

That's FUD from over a year ago. Nothing came from it. High ranking SEC officials already claimed Ethereum is not a security.

New York Attorney General (NYAG) Letitia James is probably a diversity hire who does not know what she's talking about. Give me a break! New York is a fuckup.

[obsidian]

The SEC probably just finds numbers that suits their narrative. Price data from more exchange, different time periods etc.

If they delay or reject, the reason for it will show their hand.

There is also still a reasonable chance that Larry Fink says FU give me my ETF

Well, Blackrock has only been denied once.

I agree though that they could delay the ETH ETF again in May. That might just prolong the bull run, especially if they then approve it later in the year.

[obsidian]

BNB and SOL pumping nicely. Glad I did not offload my BNB. Will be great if it can rally back to ATH. It's only about 18% from the ATH price of $699. BNB is another token with a burn mechanism to reduce supply. Only thing that sucks about SOL is the inflation and the shutdowns.

[Flexacon]

If Ether ETF is denied by SEC do you see it being approved further in the year or in 2025?

It really depends on the reason for any denial. Politics is also a huge thing here. Gensler is in the doghouse with the Elizabeth Warren camp over approving the BTC ETF, so he doesn't want to piss them off even more by approving this one. At the same time he doesn't want another loss in court if someone decides to take a denial that way.

Also that line of politics becomes moot if Trump wins in November. So I'd say yes it gets approved eventually.

[Flexacon]

Cheers for the info on the ETFs.

See how May goes. I have Mar-Jul as an event window for S&P which will take crypto with it so I’d prefer an ETH ETF delay to August.

If they are backed into a corner and have to approve, the timing will have some meaning. Like with BTC prior to the halving made sense.

Back in December I was looking at the first rate cut as my potential exit point. I feel even more strongly about that now.

It seems it doesn't matter any more if macro data is bullish or bearish, the S&P is just gonna go up. Someone pointed out to me it's possibly because inflation still remains a significant part of GDP. That starts to go down when they start cutting rates, so it won't matter if they try sell rate cuts as bullish/soft landing, markets will still probably go risk off for a while, but not a crash type scenario, more a healthy correction.

60% chance the first cuts are in June, 40% it's July. They front run it by a month, so sell off potentially in May. Those percentages can change significantly though, but the later they cut the more ridiculous the pump (and eventual dump) $100k BTC may feel like a cheap entry point soon.

[Mayday]

I was looking at rate cuts back in December as my potential exit point. I'm feel even more strongly about that now.

It seems it doesn't matter any more if macro data is bullish or bearish, the S&P is just gonna go up. Someone pointed out to me it's possibly because inflation still remains a significant part of GDP. That starts to go down when they start cutting rates, so it won't matter if they try sell rate cuts as bullish/soft landing, markets will still probably go risk off for a while.

60% chance the first cuts are in June, 40% it's July. They front run it by a month, so sell off potentially in May. Those percentages can change significantly though, but the later they cut the more ridiculous the pump (and eventual dump) $100k BTC may feel like a cheap entry point soon.

My original 5.33% model which turned out to be correct had rate cuts in 2024. However once we reached my Target the forward modelling didn’t feel right. I prepped for 10.5% rates based on it already but I have WAY too much cashflow, it’s excessive.

So in August last year I rebuilt my model to no rate cuts. I get the same outcome as the prior model but I now have a triple top of inflation 10%-11%, rates grind up each wave. So wave 2 might be 7.5% and wave 3 I finish at 10.5%.

So far it’s been correct for 8 months while market has been wrong. The market has NFI on rates or inflation until 2 weeks out from decision. The market was 98.5% betting on a June cut last month and now that’s dropped to 60% chance. If I get to June with no cut that will be a hold on rates correct for 10 months. I think I have small hikes happening in 2025, I’ll have to look.

I have had Mar-Jul 2024 window for S&P selloff in my original plan FWIW (I had S&P target range 5,300). 3 out of 4 times an S&P correction resulted in a multi year Bitcoin bear market. 1 of 1 times Saylor taking leverage resulted in a multi year bear market.

The ETH ETF is very interesting to me now…… BTC sell off to the 40s, ETH ETF approval in August and we will see funds divert…… the timing would be very interesting. Wall St would get 2 bites of the cherry. A BTC cycle top then moves straight into creating an ETH top. I have BTC 1 peak and I had ETH as 2 peaks. I couldn’t figure out how the 2nd peak for ETH would happen. Maybe this is how 🤔

[obsidian]

Binance BNB just keeps pumping LMAO. Nigeria is now blaming Binance for their currency issues.

BNB is at $622 and up 16% the past 24 hours, approaching the ATH. It's up 144.89% the past 3 months, well ahead of BTC, ETH and SOL. How high can BNB go? I think perhaps $2000 based on the supply and use case. The US and Nigeria might want to crack down on Binance. But the rest of the world is still onboard. Binance also paid a huge fine to the US of over $4 billion. I am cautiously impressed with Binance. Hope they stay the course in the face of all these onslaughts.

[obsidian]

It really depends on the reason for any denial. Politics is also a huge thing here. Gensler is in the doghouse with the Elizabeth Warren camp over approving the BTC ETF, so he doesn't want to piss them off even more by approving this one. At the same time he doesn't want another loss in court if someone decides to take a denial that way.

Also that line of politics becomes moot if Trump wins in November. So I'd say yes it gets approved eventually.

But who cares what Elizabeth Warren thinks. Her one foot is already in the grave. She's an outdated corrupt politician. The BTC ETF is making money for the people that really control the US and own the politicians.

Now this is funny!

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/03/13/coinbase-nixes-page-promoting-elizabeth-whoren-meme-coin/

Coinbase took down a webpage that explained "how to buy elizabeth whoren," a derogatory token referencing U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)

https://coinranking.com/coin/WsFTcWcpg+elizabathwhoren-whoren

elizabath whoren WHOREN

Market Cap: $ 9.37 million
Supply: 97.97 million WHOREN

I'm gonna buy me some WHOREN!!

[Mayday]

Binance BNB just keeps pumping LMAO. Nigeria is now blaming Binance for their currency issues.

BNB is at $622 and up 16% the past 24 hours, approaching the ATH. It's up 144.89% the past 3 months, well ahead of BTC, ETH and SOL. How high can BNB go? I think perhaps $2000 based on the supply and use case. The US and Nigeria might want to crack down on Binance. But the rest of the world is still onboard. Binance also paid a huge fine to the US of over $4 billion. I am cautiously impressed with Binance. Hope they stay the course in the face of all these onslaughts.

BNB is Binance’s own coin.

Holders are generally Binance exchange people. Pump their bags and suddenly they have more money to trade on Binance. The exchange then collect the fees from increased trade values which pay back the cost to pump.  that is the use case of BNB 😉

Supply and use case are pretty much red herrings. Narratives are Fed to retail so you don’t have to acknowledge you are a Degen gambler, we are here for the technology 😂 a dog with a hat is 3.4B market cap….. a dog…. Wearing a hat…. But we aren’t Degen Gamblers 😂

I just dumped one of my alts for an 8x. Buyers are euphoric thinking 100x is about to happen. Was a reasonable amount to actually. Going to go buy shit for the garden.

[SouJerz]

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1767902234115797199/photo/1

[SouJerz]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/industry-veterans-share-praise-skepticism-ethereum-dencun-upgrade-goes-live

Dencum went live today but from the article seems rather Bearish for Ethereum ETF in May and probably gets pushed back to later in the year.  Maybe thats good price should dip making it a nice buy opportunity.   Although i miss those $12 an ETH days.

[Flexacon]

But who cares what Elizabeth Warren thinks. Her one foot is already in the grave. She's an outdated corrupt politician. The BTC ETF is making money for the people that really control the US and own the politicians.

Gensler somewhat wants to be politically aligned with her, so she matters for the time being.

😂 a dog with a hat is 3.4B market cap….. a dog…. Wearing a hat…. But we aren’t Degen Gamblers 😂

Up x26 on that It was the doge meta playing out again. To my eyes it would have been degen to fade something like that!

[Mayday]

Gensler somewhat wants to be politically aligned with her, so she matters for the time being.

Up x26 on that It was the doge meta playing out again. To my eyes it would have been degen to fade something like that!

Unleah your inner Degen lol, nicely done.

I see some circling the MSTR share price. Saylor had made it. He had beaten the market. He can claim the crown for King Degen and CEO of Bitcoin. So he celebrates with 700M in leverage lol. This guy is pretty awesome and I have to admit a good part of me wants him to pull this off now that he doubled down on his billions. 

[Flexacon]

Unleah your inner Degen lol, nicely done.

I see some circling the MSTR share price. Saylor had made it. He had beaten the market. He can claim the crown for King Degen and CEO of Bitcoin. So he celebrates with 700M in leverage lol. This guy is pretty awesome and I have to admit a good part of me wants him to pull this off now that he doubled down on his billions.

He basically found an infinite money glitch and him always buying at the tops all make sense now. It can't be long now before others start doing the same thing as him.

[gib]

He basically found an infinite money glitch and him always buying at the tops all make sense now. It can't be long now before others start doing the same thing as him.

Interesting way of looking at it. I would characterise him (and indeed all of us Getbigger Bitcoiners) as having realized that as money is being devalued over time, we need to preserve it in fiat denominated assets, and that beyond property, gold, stocks, etc, Bitcoin is, for many reasons, the absolute best asset for this purpose. Many people are very familiar with the benefits of borrowing and leveraging to buy real-estate to preserve (and indeed to build) wealth. A smaller number are familiar with this concept applied to stocks. And an even smaller number still, with Bitcoin. But it's the same concept and theme, (or "glitch" as you call it, which applies throughout).

[Mayday]

He basically found an infinite money glitch and him always buying at the tops all make sense now. It can't be long now before others start doing the same thing as him.

Correct, he is betting on the bottoms. His share price is effectively leveraged against Bitcoin at tops allowing him access to more funding to Degen. So he waited for the top now, dilutes the shares which are already leveraged in value vs Bitcoin then takes out 700M leverage on top to buy more Bitcoin.

His bet is his shareholders are fine with the bear market and a temporary -90% drop in share price.
It’s Tier 1 Degen stuff But then you see just how much fuckwittery is going on at MSTR.

He won. Victory was there for the taking. Now, running the gauntlet a second time, hopefully not clutching defeat from the claws of victory. It’s the main bad guy who has the main character as his feet but instead of Shooting he decides to give a run down of his brilliant plan, better pray he got the S&P right

[Amerian Muscle]

what does a post 1 million bitcoin world look like? 2 classes of people? no coiners and bitcoiners? nocoiners work and slave, bitcoiners retire?

[SouJerz]

https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/1767441447702413547?s=20

Could this trigger the blastoff?

Also we touched a new ATH today 73,845  and no one seems to care, futures are interesting too.  Seems like big dogs are selling the futures to suppress price and then buying up everything cheap, when they are done accumulating they'll unwind their shorts and squeeze the sucker shorts left at the table.

we might blast off to highs not even thought of, but hopefully we cross 150k maybe touch 300k for a hot minute.

Add in Michael Saylors infinite money glitch tapping the convertible bond market, if another big company emulates him its game over.

Bigger than Taylor Swift!

[Flexacon]

This date could be another potential catalyst for more upside momentum. We might find out if Bezos bought, if pension funds have been buying. If someone like Renaissance Technologies bought then the fomo from tradfi could be crazy. Pelosi, Burry, or Ryan Cohen buying would whip retail into a frenzy too.

Matt Hougan
@Matt_Hougan
For everyone wondering "who is buying" bitcoin ETFs, I'd circle May 15th on your calendar.

Investors with more than $100m in AUM have to file reports with the SEC called "13-F Filings" disclosing their publicly traded holdings.

Those filings are due 45 days after the end of the calendar quarter. While they don't capture everyone -- and are just a snapshot in time -- I think some of the names on those filings will surprise people (to the upside).

[loco]

This date could be another potential catalyst for more upside momentum. We might find out if Bezos bought, if pension funds have been buying. If someone like Renaissance Technologies bought then the fomo from tradfi could be crazy. Pelosi, Burry, or Ryan Cohen buying would whip retail into a frenzy too.

Matt Hougan
@Matt_Hougan
For everyone wondering "who is buying" bitcoin ETFs, I'd circle May 15th on your calendar.

Investors with more than $100m in AUM have to file reports with the SEC called "13-F Filings" disclosing their publicly traded holdings.

Those filings are due 45 days after the end of the calendar quarter. While they don't capture everyone -- and are just a snapshot in time -- I think some of the names on those filings will surprise people (to the upside).

 

Bitcoin Drops Below $69,000 Amid Heightened Risk, According to On-chain Data

Mar 15, 2024 07:39 EDT

https://www.tradingview.com/news/coinedition:8291e0f3e094b:0-bitcoin-drops-below-69-000-amid-heightened-risk-according-to-on-chain-data/

[Flexacon]

Mar 15, 2024 07:39 EDT

https://www.tradingview.com/news/coinedition:8291e0f3e094b:0-bitcoin-drops-below-69-000-amid-heightened-risk-according-to-on-chain-data/

What's that got to do with my post