Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[obsidian]

Yeah it's been priced in for a while. The delay to the ETH ETF means all of tradfi eyes stay on the BTC. ETH delay is bullish for BTC and BTC pairs.

The GBTC outflows have been linked to the Genesis settlement. That still leaves an explanation for the thinning inflow in the other ETFs. My guess is it's probably just relating to end of quarter rebalancing that typically goes on in tradfi. If that's the case then inflows pick up again next month.

Interesting comments by the former Commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission of Federal government of the United States, Brian Quintenz.

A futures contract on a security is in both the SEC’s and @CFTC ’s jurisdiction. A futures contract on a pure commodity is only in the CFTC’s jurisdiction. There is a currently a futures contract on #ETH. It is only under the CFTC’s purview which makes ETH a non-security commodity

https://twitter.com/BrianQuintenz?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Reminder:

1/ When the SEC allowed ETH Futures ETFs to trade on its regulated security exchanges, it explicitly acknowledged the status of the underlying, ETH, as being a non-security and outside of its jurisdiction.

2/ Importantly, this ETF approval decision in October 2023 occurred well after Ethereum changed to PoS in Sept of 2022; meaning that to the SEC, ETH, in its present state as of Oct 2023, was not a security.

3/ If the SEC had any doubt about the regulatory treatment of ETH in Oct 2023, it wouldn’t have approved the ETF.  If ETH were in fact a security, then the CFTC-listed futures contracts (on which the ETFs were based) would be illegal, as any derivative on ETH would be considered security futures contracts and subject to different rules, listed on different exchanges and subject to joint SEC/CFTC jurisdiction.

4/ Moreover, if ETH were a security, then the ETH Futures ETF would be an illegal instrument. The SEC cannot approve an illegal instrument to trade over a national securities exchange.

5/ It will be interesting to watch what, if any, excuse the SEC uses if it were to delay or deny an ETH ETF given it has already informed the market on ETH being outside its jurisdiction.

6/ The SEC's conduct in refusing to acknowledge these facts is causing confusion and actively harming the public.

Question:
How would you respond to their argument that it was an acknowledgment of its commodity status (and therefore the legality of a CFTC regulated futures based product), but not the nonsecurity status of the underlying? Gensler has gone to great lengths to never concede ETH’s nonsecurity status, though he does concede that it is a commodity as well. We know they will try to back into the most damaging legal argument they can find if it has any chance of winning in lower courts, since their political goal is to inflict maximum damage on the industry domestically.

So what specifically is the slam dunk/smoking gun in the statutes or paperwork trail that prevents them from making this hybrid instrument argument with a straight face? An unwritten jurisdictional norm that has never been violated is not enough to constrain this SEC. They relish losing in court because that signals to the party bosses that they are being “tough” on partisan policy priorities.

Answer:
As I showed in the thread, a commodity is deemed to be a non security if there is a CFTC-regulated futures or swaps contract on it.

[SouJerz]

Interesting comments by the former Commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission of Federal government of the United States, Brian Quintenz.

A futures contract on a security is in both the SEC’s and @CFTC ’s jurisdiction. A futures contract on a pure commodity is only in the CFTC’s jurisdiction. There is a currently a futures contract on #ETH. It is only under the CFTC’s purview which makes ETH a non-security commodity

https://twitter.com/BrianQuintenz?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Reminder:

1/ When the SEC allowed ETH Futures ETFs to trade on its regulated security exchanges, it explicitly acknowledged the status of the underlying, ETH, as being a non-security and outside of its jurisdiction.

2/ Importantly, this ETF approval decision in October 2023 occurred well after Ethereum changed to PoS in Sept of 2022; meaning that to the SEC, ETH, in its present state as of Oct 2023, was not a security.

3/ If the SEC had any doubt about the regulatory treatment of ETH in Oct 2023, it wouldn’t have approved the ETF.  If ETH were in fact a security, then the CFTC-listed futures contracts (on which the ETFs were based) would be illegal, as any derivative on ETH would be considered security futures contracts and subject to different rules, listed on different exchanges and subject to joint SEC/CFTC jurisdiction.

4/ Moreover, if ETH were a security, then the ETH Futures ETF would be an illegal instrument. The SEC cannot approve an illegal instrument to trade over a national securities exchange.

5/ It will be interesting to watch what, if any, excuse the SEC uses if it were to delay or deny an ETH ETF given it has already informed the market on ETH being outside its jurisdiction.

6/ The SEC's conduct in refusing to acknowledge these facts is causing confusion and actively harming the public.

Question:
How would you respond to their argument that it was an acknowledgment of its commodity status (and therefore the legality of a CFTC regulated futures based product), but not the nonsecurity status of the underlying? Gensler has gone to great lengths to never concede ETH’s nonsecurity status, though he does concede that it is a commodity as well. We know they will try to back into the most damaging legal argument they can find if it has any chance of winning in lower courts, since their political goal is to inflict maximum damage on the industry domestically.

So what specifically is the slam dunk/smoking gun in the statutes or paperwork trail that prevents them from making this hybrid instrument argument with a straight face? An unwritten jurisdictional norm that has never been violated is not enough to constrain this SEC. They relish losing in court because that signals to the party bosses that they are being “tough” on partisan policy priorities.

Answer:
As I showed in the thread, a commodity is deemed to be a non security if there is a CFTC-regulated futures or swaps contract on it.

ETH to $14,000?

[Flexacon]

Interesting comments by the former Commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission of Federal government of the United States, Brian Quintenz.

A futures contract on a security is in both the SEC’s and @CFTC ’s jurisdiction. A futures contract on a pure commodity is only in the CFTC’s jurisdiction. There is a currently a futures contract on #ETH. It is only under the CFTC’s purview which makes ETH a non-security commodity

There are several very wealthy and well resourced entities who would love nothing more than to be able to take the SEC to court over all this. Most of them want a clear guidance on what they're allowed to do and not allowed to regarding tokenisation and staking in crypto, but the SEC won't give them this. If it ends up in court they get this one way or another. Also just remember that the SEC lost the XPR case and XRP was magnitudes worse than anything the SEC can try throw at ETH.

Short term this stuff is bearish ETH, but longer term it will bullish. Either way a bullish BTC takes ETH up with it regardless.

[gib]

There are several very wealthy and well resourced entities who would love nothing more than to be able to take the SEC to court over all this. Most of them want a clear guidance on what they're allowed to do and not allowed to regarding tokenisation and staking in crypto, but the SEC won't give them this. If it ends up in court they get this one way or another. Also just remember that the SEC lost the XPR case and XRP was magnitudes worse than anything the SEC can try throw at ETH.

Short term this stuff is bearish ETH, but longer term it will bullish. Either way a bullish BTC takes ETH up with it regardless.

The law is already very clear. And the SEC has been clear all along - every issuer and operator of exchanges of such securities in the US must comply with the law.

The SEC cannot be expected to rule or comment on every single of an infinite number of security tokens. But it can re-iterate that the law must be complied with (which is has done, countless times).

[Flexacon]

The law is already very clear. And the SEC has been clear all along - every issuer and operator of exchanges of such securities in the US must comply with the law.

The SEC cannot be expected to rule or comment on every single of an infinite number of security tokens. But it can re-iterate that the law must be complied with (which is has done, countless times).

If the law is already clear and the SEC was clear all along then why did the SEC end up losing their XRP case? Seems you like to bury your head in the sand about what happened there. Don't worry though you aren't the only one who is in complete denial about that, lots of experts in Securities on X were the same way and now it seems Gensler has joined team in denial.

And the pre Gensler SEC has already commented on ETH as has the CFTC which is why any action he tries to take will end up him losing in court again. That doesn't even include several US states that have already objected to Genslers over reach.

[obsidian]

The law is already very clear. And the SEC has been clear all along - every issuer and operator of exchanges of such securities in the US must comply with the law.

The SEC cannot be expected to rule or comment on every single of an infinite number of security tokens. But it can re-iterate that the law must be complied with (which is has done, countless times).

The SEC already approved an ETH Futures ETF post-Merge. ETH is not a security. It fails the Howie Test. You want ETH to be a security because you don't want it to infringe on your BTC gains.

ETH is actually being held back at the moment because of all the FUD. A lot of blood and guts hard work has gone into the Ethereum project over the years. Way more than Bitcoin. Bitcoin is almost on autopilot. If Bitcoin ever hopes to become a smart contract platform they will have to get in the trenches like the Ethereum developers and get shit done. It will be a long road ahead. This shit doesn't happen overnight.

[obsidian]

ETH to $14,000?

If the Spot ETF is approved there is a chance it might. But I expect anything from the SEC. They are desperate to contain and control. So who really knows. Nobody does. Except Blackrock, Gensler and his buddies.

[obsidian]

WTF is this? The majority of transactions are failing on SOL. Am I missing something?! EDIT: I just refreshed and there are not as many failed ones now. See this screenshot I took moments ago.

https://solanabeach.io/transactions

[Amerian Muscle]

What is the probability that bitcoin will eventually go to zero?

[obsidian]

What is the probability that bitcoin will eventually go to zero?

Zero, most likely. Michael Saylor has already said he is willing to ride Bitcoin down to zero. That's diamond hands. He's not the only one. BTC's price is based on supply and demand. Someone sells for whatever reason. They lost their job, a spouse got sick, they want to buy a house, etc. The price hits a target, they sell for a myriad of reason. It is possible that Bitcoin can dump to $1,000. Highly unlikely. But it definitely will never dump to zero, barring a crisis like the BTC network is hacked via quantum computing, a major asteroid hits the Earth, a major global Nuclear War with 5000 + nukes. Even then, it technically won't hit zero. It might just cease to exist, for example, in a Mad Max scenario of total society collapse.

And the US debt is growing by $1 trillion ever 180 days. It is mathematically impossible to reverse the growing debt crisis. They will start to inflate the money supply at some point, and the dollar will continue its devaluation.

If a lot of BTC is sold the price dumps until new buyers come in to buy it up. The supply and demand mechanism is also why the price of Bitcoin or any other Crypto can shoot up a huge amount, orders of magnitude more than the dollar amount involved in the transactions. Let's say someone wants to buy 1000 BTC. If they place an order like that chances are it won't be filled unless the price is attractive, because people will want the price to be higher now since they realize it is in demand. Another analogy can be buyers bidding on art work or classic cars. The price goes up as more people bid on it, and if the collectible is in high demand.

The price can dump fast also, as fear sits in. You might have BTC holders who are not as resolved as Saylor. They may need the money to keep themselves afloat for the next 1-4 years. So they get worried that the price may dump too much so they sell to ensure they have the funds required. If a large enough amount is sold traders start to flip bearish and before you know it the price corrects downward by a significant amount. There are tens of thousands of traders if not more watching the crypto charts daily. And in a way they all influence each other.

[obsidian]

[obsidian]

https://twitter.com/CraigSalm

Per Chief Legal Officer @Grayscale

1/ Recently, there’s been a lot of chatter about spot #Ethereum ETFs. I personally am not deterred by it and believe the ETFs should be approved. But right now I want to talk about how I think perceived “lack of SEC engagement” should be viewed at this point:

2/ In the final months leading up to #Bitcoin ETF approval, @Grayscale and others received positive and constructive engagement from the SEC. We had thoughtful conversations and discussed the finer details of creation/redemption procedures, cash v. in-kind, APs, LPs, custody etc.

3/ All of these issues were figured out and are identical when comparing spot #Bitcoin to  #Ethereum ETFs. The only difference is rather than the ETF holding bitcoin, it holds ether. So in many ways, the SEC already has engaged and issuers simply have less to engage on this time.

4/ Perhaps I will feel differently as we get closer to final approve/deny dates in late May 2024, but at this point, I don’t think perceived lack of engagement from regulators should be indicative of one outcome or another.

5/ Further, I 100% agree w what others like @iampaulgrewal and @BrianQuintenz have said about why spot #Ethereum ETFs should be approved: consistency w ETH futures ETFs, regulation of ETH futures as commodity futures (vs. security futures), high correlation btw futures and spot.

6/ Investors want and deserve access to #Ethereum in the form of a spot Ethereum ETF and Grayscale believes the case is just as strong as it was for spot #Bitcoin ETFs. We look forward to engaging with the Commission on these important products. $ETHE

[obsidian]

https://cryptoslate.com/fidelity-files-registration-statement-for-ethereum-etf-despite-regulatory-uncertainty/

Fidelity files registration statement for Ethereum ETF despite regulatory uncertainty

Fidelity's actions, alongside those of other firms aiming to introduce spot ether ETFs, illustrate the growing interest in integrating digital assets into traditional financial products.

Fidelity Investments has taken another step in its effort to launch a spot Ethereum ETF, filing a registration statement on March 27 despite the uncertain regulatory landscape.

The move follows a previous filing by Cboe, the exchange planned for this ETF, which submitted a form 19b-4 to the SEC on Fidelity’s behalf in November 2023.

Fidelity’s actions, alongside those of other firms aiming to introduce spot ether ETFs, illustrate the growing interest in integrating digital assets into traditional financial products. Yet, obtaining regulatory approval presents a notable challenge, highlighting the evolving and uncertain nature of crypto regulation.

[El Diablo Blanco]

This shit has turned to the biggest money laundering scheme around.

[obsidian]

This shit has turned to the biggest money laundering scheme around.

How so? Can you elaborate?

[Mayday]

Zero, most likely. Michael Saylor has already said he is willing to ride Bitcoin down to zero. That's diamond hands. He's not the only one. BTC's price is based on supply and demand.

And the US debt is growing by $1 trillion ever 180 days. It is mathematically impossible to reverse the growing debt crisis. They will start to inflate the money supply at some point, and the dollar will continue its devaluation.

PlanB blocked me years ago for challenging his supply/demand view. Perception/evaluation of value comes first, supply/demand is second. Trust your retarded friend on this one as just like with inflation, the masses are taught incorrectly. You can run out of horseshit, it doesn’t mean the price can magically change.

The measure of perceived value is done against other items around it 🤌  The scarcity narrative is used because the masses are dumb and have an attention span of 5 seconds so it’s a very easy sell to them. The alternative is educating Grandma Boomer on blockchain 🤪 if the genuine highly smart people actually believed this is be pretty surprised, they should be driving this to masses for greater adoption (rightly or wrongly is irrelevant if mass adoption is the objective).

Be careful being sucked too much into the currency printing. We already had the spike, it’s done. Now we stabilise on a future steady trendline. Gold did a 2.5x from peak once they depegged it. BTC did a 3x from peak after the biggest money printing in history. Gold then went down for 20yrs….. people are expecting BTC to go forever up.

Inflation expectations from the masses are all wrong, the they have recessions wrong, unemployment wrong, property wrong, recessions wrong, GDP wrong. Gold wrong. BTC targets wrong. When price goes up it matters not how much of a spastic you are, you will be right, the question is for how long does your winning streak last as all gamblers face this inevitable question and all answer the same ‘I’m about even or slightly up’.

[Mayday]

How so? Can you elaborate?

I outlined a plan to a black market acquaintance but I’m not outlining that shit here. You need to use a clean slate and run according to local taxation laws. It isn’t about avoiding tax it’s about turning bad money to clean which is pretty easy. Tax is black and white so you eliminate grey and you are fine.

[SouJerz]

PlanB blocked me years ago for challenging his supply/demand view. Perception/evaluation of value comes first, supply/demand is second. Trust your retarded friend on this one as just like with inflation, the masses are taught incorrectly. You can run out of horseshit, it doesn’t mean the price can magically change.

The measure of perceived value is done against other items around it 🤌  The scarcity narrative is used because the masses are dumb and have an attention span of 5 seconds so it’s a very easy sell to them. The alternative is educating Grandma Boomer on blockchain 🤪 if the genuine highly smart people actually believed this is be pretty surprised, they should be driving this to masses for greater adoption (rightly or wrongly is irrelevant if mass adoption is the objective).

Be careful being sucked too much into the currency printing. We already had the spike, it’s done. Now we stabilise on a future steady trendline. Gold did a 2.5x from peak once they depegged it. BTC did a 3x from peak after the biggest money printing in history. Gold then went down for 20yrs….. people are expecting BTC to go forever up.

Inflation expectations from the masses are all wrong, the they have recessions wrong, unemployment wrong, property wrong, recessions wrong, GDP wrong. Gold wrong. BTC targets wrong. When price goes up it matters not how much of a spastic you are, you will be right, the question is for how long does your winning streak last as all gamblers face this inevitable question and all answer the same ‘I’m about even or slightly up’.

Tell me you’re not a whole coiner without telling you’re not a whole coiner.

[gib]

This shit has turned to the biggest money laundering scheme around.

No, that would actually be the US banking system...

[gib]

https://twitter.com/CraigSalm

Per Chief Legal Officer @Grayscale

3/ All of these issues were figured out and are identical when comparing spot #Bitcoin to  #Ethereum ETFs. The only difference is rather than the ETF holding bitcoin, it holds ether. So in many ways, the SEC already has engaged and issuers simply have less to engage on this time.

Not the only difference at all. Eth was launched as a security. BTC was conceived as, and has remained at all times, a commodity.

And just because another organization (the SME), allowed Eth futures contracts to be traded, this does not mean the SEC needs to (or will) take the same view for any security it considers for approval for trading. Indeed, the SEC may well take the entirely opposite view, which is that Eth is a security, which should be obvious when you look at the history of Eth, its founders, and the control of Eth, and when you apply the well-established Howey test.

Those speculating on the hope that an ETH ETF gets approved, and then further on the hope that if approved demand increases, and then assuming further that any of these hopes have not already been priced in, are risking large downside on any non-approval. ETH has already performed terribly against BTC over the last year (down around 22%), and this is poised to continue as funds flow out from Eth and into BTC and also out from Eth to Sol, and other de-gen type coins.

[a_pupil]

What's your guys view on the s&p 500 over the next few months?

It's been a juicy period, but how long before the correction?

I've been meaning to take out about a 3rd of my holdings to prop up my business during a slow period. I wonder if I should sell it this week or wait a while.

[a_pupil]

Sam got 25.

Rumours are that prison industry insider and crypto pioneer Dr Goodrum is keeping him safe on the inside.

[loco]

What's your guys view on the s&p 500 over the next few months?

It's been a juicy period, but how long before the correction?

I've been meaning to take out about a 3rd of my holdings to prop up my business during a slow period. I wonder if I should sell it this week or wait a while.

Nobody knows.  What we do know is that historically, bull markets last longer than bear markets, and that time in the market is what creates wealth, not timing the market.

[obsidian]

Not the only difference at all. Eth was launched as a security. BTC was conceived as, and has remained at all times, a commodity.

And just because another organization (the SME), allowed Eth futures contracts to be traded, this does not mean the SEC needs to (or will) take the same view for any security it considers for approval for trading. Indeed, the SEC may well take the entirely opposite view, which is that Eth is a security, which should be obvious when you look at the history of Eth, its founders, and the control of Eth, and when you apply the well-established Howey test.

Those speculating on the hope that an ETH ETF gets approved, and then further on the hope that if approved demand increases, and then assuming further that any of these hopes have not already been priced in, are risking large downside on any non-approval. ETH has already performed terribly against BTC over the last year (down around 22%), and this is poised to continue as funds flow out from Eth and into BTC and also out from Eth to Sol, and other de-gen type coins.

It was the SEC that approved 9 Ether futures to be traded on regulated commodity exchanges. And they did that after the Merge to Proof of Stake.

To my knowledge, unregistered securities cannot trade on commodity exchanges.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sec-approves-9-ether-futures-223937256.html#:~:text=Ethereum%20futures%20exchange%2Dtraded%20funds,encouraging%20sign%20for%20cryptocurrency%20investors.

SEC Approves 9 Ether Futures ETFs

Ethereum futures exchange-traded funds hit the market Monday after the SEC approved nine products simultaneously in an encouraging sign for cryptocurrency investors.

https://www.investopedia.com/ether-futures-etf-definition-8363103#:~:text=Unlike%20spot%20cryptocurrency%20ETFs%2C%20which,cryptocurrency%20of%20the%20Ethereum%20network.

How Ether Futures ETFs Work and How To Invest

An ether futures exchange-traded fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle that enables exposure to ether (ETH), the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum blockchain, through futures contracts. Unlike spot cryptocurrency ETFs, which hold ether directly, an ether futures ETF invests in ether futures contracts that trade on regulated commodity exchanges.

Regarding Solana, first of all, the transactions volume is inflated because they include voting and spamming / bots in many of the comparisons. The real volume is similar to other blockchains. Solana also has a lot of failed transactions because of the spamming. Solana is inflationary, Ethereum is deflationary.

Coinbase's BASE Ethereum L2 has surpassed Solana's in total value locked.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coinbases-network-outpaces-solana-growing-033047425.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAE1DTHwfSQ047FReRBvrsbPkNL21v8n5oNzb_2WulfbP4C_wQma96UhvJjgZByHsYq_IA1TFzrqXyXovwCM8ezDB3rg9IczPcKhKDuGC3Vv9mHMuVSvyxOlRjweeNkvQ-G94yvMMrFmYJ-_rROnR8Lea4DxhQuioWfHyknbFUDiZ

Coinbase's Base network outpaces Solana with growing total value locked

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN)'s layer-2 network, Base, has experienced significant growth since its mainnet went live approximately six weeks ago. As of Monday, the total value locked (TVL) on Base reached $370.29 million, surpassing Solana, which holds a TVL of $310.43 million. This surge in TVL comes despite a service interruption experienced by Base in early September.

Ethereum dominates in the number of active developers. When you add the Ethereum L2 developers it's even more impressive. Polygon alone has almost double the number of developers compared to Solana or Bitcoin:

Ethereum - 2,392
Polygon ETH L2- 792
Arbitrum ETH L2 - 592
BNB - 498
Solana - 436
Optimism ETH L2 - 432
Bitcoin - 356
Base ETH L2 - 189

Just adding these L2 developers with Ethereum's yields a total of 4,397 active developers. And that does not include all the developers in the Ethereum ecosystem. It dwarfs Bitcoin. This is why I am saying Ethereum is blood and guts work in the trenches compared to autopilot Bitcoin.

https://www.developerreport.com/

[obsidian]

Doge is doing nicely. Up 129.61% the past 30 days! I gained about $20,000 in 30 days with this increase. Would be great to see it go to $1 eventually.