WIF is up x6 in a month since this post. I'm now up x45
I was told I would be crying for not buying bitcoin in the bear market. Those posters were right. I'm crying from laughter!
Well it's nice to have such results - good on you. But here is the reality:
1. If you invested any substantial amount of money into one of hundreds of thousands of meme-coins at the time you suggested, you were a fool (who deserved to lose his money, and probably often does).
2. If you now hold any such meme coin which you were lucky enough to pick, and are not now selling, then again, you are a fool (who deserves to lose his money, and probably often does).
3. Don't confuse investing skill, with the luck of picking a meme coin which happens to do well. Same thing can be done with people who pick thinly traded penny stocks, with zero knowledge of fundamentals, hoping they may go up. Eventually one does, but this does not make them a good investor. It makes them a lucky investor (who probably will lose money over the long term).
4. For all the many meme coins with short-term-upside over BTC, many more never outperform BTC in the short-term, let along the long-term, and make money only primarily for the founder/scammer and those early on in the scam. So whilst you might occasionally get a coin with a 100x return, reality is that only 1/1000 such "investments" will make such a return, with the rest losing.
5. In the long term, BTC will outperform almost any shitcoin. We are seeing this even with last cycle's favorite ETH, which has over the last few years been on a slow and steady decline to BTC (despite its much smaller market cap), and we will see it with 99.9999% against any "alt", over any reasonable period of time.
6. Most people who made gains on a shitcoin, will indeed be crying if they don't "cash in" and convert their alt-gain to BTC. Many think they can "time it". the vast majority don't get it right.
My approach, for what its worth, is to first of all understand that there is in fact no realistic "alt" to Bitcoin (in terms of being the global baselayer store of value). and then second, to only buy/hold "alts" (for lack of a better word) which have fundamental long term value and technical feasibility, which I will hodl very long term over numerous cycles- examples include Chainlink. Uniswap, and Filecoin. The value investor in me simply cannot bring myself to buy memes and engage in de-gen shitcoinery.
PS - of Chainlink. Uniswap, and Filecoin, which I think are all long term hodl (think a decade ahead), I think the price and adoption of Filecoin in particular will be mind-blowing in years to come. So expect me, some time in the future, to come back on this post and tell you, I told you so. (Anyone interested, can check out a little more detail on FIL at
www.filecointldr.io)
