Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Mayday]

So, 23 May not looking good anymore?...

Seasonality is unbroken so it’s not so much about when the approval will happen but rather it will happen.

Post BTC ETF nothing has broken in my modelling. If it had it would have been blown my 76k to pieces.

2011 x 1 ATH peak
2013 x 2 ATH peak
2017 x 1 ATH peak
2021 x 2 ATH peak
2024…….. ATH already got tagged and we are still in the major parabola…..

Anyhoo once the ETH ETF is approved it’ll steal inbound funds from BTC.

The reality is the main crypto talking heads got themselves nuked in the bear market then wrecked shorting equities then wrecked longing bonds. They are gambling morons.

Wall St are not our friends. They got the BTC ETF. Now they’ll get the ETH ETF. Then they’ll short them both.

[gib]

No one likes to hear it, but if you are buying anything promoted as an "alt" to Bitcoin, you are being scammed.

Yields and airdrops are unsustainable gimmicks. Like we see every cycle, lessons will be learned.

ETH has performed terribly against BTC, despite in the past (and at least in the prior cycle) being considered and promoted as an alt to BTC. BTC has, since inception more than 3x'd the market cap of Eth. And that dominance over ETH will grow over time.

The lesson here is that any alt, can for a period of time in the short term outperform BTC (obviously very easy coming from a new launch and low market cap). Shit gets real over time, as market cap grows, and people launch new coins so scam suckers.

So, what we are now seeing is a slow, steady, bleed from Eth into BTC and other alts.

[Flexacon]

Yields and airdrops are unsustainable gimmicks. Like we see every cycle, lessons will be learned.

The fact is this stuff has only intensified with every cycle and you and others fading it each time just gets more and more painful.

And you don't like to hear it because you don't know how to take advantage of it, mostly because you don't understand how money rotates in crypto. I mean you choosing to throw money at something as heavily diluted as Filecoin says it all. Comical and you wouldn't even get why.

[gib]

The fact is this stuff has only intensified with every cycle and you and others fading it each time just gets more and more painful.

And you don't like to hear it because you don't know how to take advantage of it, mostly because you don't understand how money rotates in crypto. I mean you choosing to throw money at something as heavily diluted as Filecoin says it all. Comical and you wouldn't even get why.

If moving from ponzi scam to ponzi scam is your thing, in the hope that you can ultimately keep successfully keep accumulating more BTC in that method, as opposed to just stacking and holding BTC, good luck to you. The vast majority of people who do this (other than those who keep launching new alts and shitcoins), fail. Every cycle they learn their lesson, and every new cycles there are still others who give it a try and think they can outperform an infinitely diluting pool of money in alts. Its basic game theory - new coins will be infinitely launched to take advantage of any alt demand. (That can't happen with BTC itself - which is why we say "there is no second best".

I bought FIL pretty much at its low after its big peak. (And I don't buy any alt unless I intend to hold it long term - meaning I only buy on fundamental value, not hype). FIL is not at all an alt to BTC, nor does it claim to be. I valued the business (just like I value any company). To me, it is attractively priced given anticipated future revenue, total market growth, and expected long term revenue growth. I have had the data storage business explained to me by people from Microsoft and Amazon who deeply understand it. And when these guys tell me how much potential they see in FIL, I listen. The tokenomics of FIL are quite misunderstood (but over time will be better understood), hence the upside potential. Eventually (I am not sure when, but I am guessing 3-5 years from now based on current market adoption), I predict a MASSIVE awareness of interest in FIL and consequently a surge in price. Exponentially demand will take care of tokens. Again, you will see - lessons will be learned...

At its peak value to BTC, 1 ETH bought 0.14 BTC. That was back in June of 2017. Since then it has declined to now being 1 Eth being able to purchase just 0.05 BTC. A terrible performance, and a perfect example of how those looking to buy "alts" to gain over BTC, instead end up behind over time. And as I said earlier, I expect this will continue. Do you agree? (Or do you believe this trend will reverse?). Shall we revisit, say, end of this year?

[Flexacon]

I bought FIL pretty much at its low after its big peak. (And I don't buy any alt unless I intend to hold it long term - meaning I only buy on fundamental value, not hype). FIL is not at all an alt to BTC, nor does it claim to be. I valued the business (just like I value any company). To me, it is attractively priced given anticipated future revenue, total market growth, and expected long term revenue growth. I have had the data storage business explained to me by people from Microsoft and Amazon who deeply understand it. And when these guys tell me how much potential they see in FIL, I listen. The tokenomics of FIL are quite misunderstood (but over time will be better understood), hence the upside potential. Eventually (I am not sure when, but I am guessing 3-5 years from now based on current market adoption), I predict a MASSIVE awareness of interest in FIL and consequently a surge in price. Exponentially demand will take care of tokens. Again, you will see - lessons will be learned...

If you were explained all this and understand why FIL would be important then you should also know a big reason would be data storage relating to AI/machine learning.

Have you ever mentioned proof of work projects doing Ai/machine learning or the reasons why? I don't think you have, so if this is something new to you then I'd highly recommend looking into this. Bittensor is the most visible project right now. Then look at the charts of the other projects which are doing this stuff then you'll see why having money in FIL right now is comical. You are on the wrong end of the curve with FIL

https://bittensor.com/

[gib]

If you were explained all this and understand why FIL would be important then you should also know a big reason would be data storage relating to AI/machine learning.

Yes, of course that will be a huge driver in the coming 3-5 years. Hence my prediction above. Charts are historical. I look at future outcomes (and indeed, care little for charts, and instead focus on fundamentals). Exact same approach I apply to any investment, including stocks and property.

[Flexacon]

At its peak value to BTC, 1 ETH bought 0.14 BTC. That was back in June of 2017. Since then it has declined to now being just 1 Eth being able to purchase 0.05 BTC. A terrible performance, and a perfect example of how those looking to buy "alts" to gain over ETH, instead end up behind. And as I said earlier, I expect this will continue. Do you agree? (Or do you believe this trend will reverse?). Shall we revisit, say, end of this year?

Read my post again I did not compare ETH price to BTC. I didn't even mention BTC.

It's not looked good for ages, but neither has ETH. The play was the ETH ecosystem.

It seems US ETH holders have been of the belief that the ETF will make them square when all along the money to be made from ETH was in adding ETH liquidity to ETH L2s and other ETH ecosystem protocols and then waiting for big fat juicy airdrops. US citizens are also being kept out of all the juicy staking APRs. They are only getting 3 to 5% whilst the rest of the world  can collect 20% plus via various defi restaking protocols.

I don't wanna say ETH ecosystem devs used US ETH holders/stakers for a exit liquidity, but it could end up feeling that way if the ETF eventually gets approved and a grayscale ETHE sell off exceeds any buying from the other ETFs. ETH price goes sideways and all the "free" L2 airdrop coins go parabolic.

Since ETH went proof of stake and moved more to a layer 2 model the ETH profit potential has moved to layer 2. It's been a dirty secret that didn't get shared much as the more people who get involved the more diluted the rewards get.

So those who added ETH liquidity on L2s are receiving and will continue to receive massive airdrops. They don't and didn't  need to buy alts to make gains or wait for ETH price improvement. The more time that passes the more it looks like the ETH ETF and staking as a service was all just a distraction from all this. And yes those who did this stuff regarding liquidity are easily out performing Bitcoin in the same time frame as they don't need to hold the airdropped alts. It's an instant sale for profit.

Note that US ETH holders couldn't take advantage of this without running into difficulties/breaking laws. These are the people getting screwed holding ETH right now

Also regarding your point about long term trends. My case has always been simple. Wait for bitcoin to enter a bull phase and buy the most promising ALT sectors. It worked well last cycle and it's worked unbelievably well this cycle. It's really not that difficult a concept to implement.

[Flexacon]

Yes, of course that will be a huge driver in the coming 3-5 years. Hence my prediction above. Charts are historical. I look at future outcomes (and indeed, care little for charts, and instead focus on fundamentals). Exact same approach I apply to any investment, including stocks and property.

You're patiently waiting for x10 in crypto over the span of years when it can happen in the span of weeks. You are trying to use boomer investment strategies in crypto now in its third cycle when each cycle has shown that this kinda investment strategy is less and less relevant. The definition of insanity quote starts springing to mind...

[gib]

You're patiently waiting for x10 in crypto over the span of years when it can happen in the span of weeks. You are trying to use boomer investment strategies in crypto now in its third cycle when each cycle has shown that this kinda investment strategy is less and less relevant. The definition of insanity quote starts springing to mind...

Indeed Flex, I am the tortoise - slow and steady, boring perhaps, but I succeed over time, and this strategy has been incredibly successful for me as I applied it over time to stocks and property (which how I built my wealth). The hare on the other hand is all over the place, jumping in and out of all sort of opportunities. Think of me as the Warren Buffet of investing - I identify good value investments (whether in stock, property, or crypto), and then I simply hold and let time do its thing. Its also not just from an investment perspective, but also from an ethical and moral perspective - I really just can't feel comfortable with all the alt pump / scam / dump staff. I know guys on the front end of these, and have had opportunities to be involved. Its not my thing. But fascinating to watch from the sidelines.

If you really believe you can consistently over time outperform BTC with alts, good luck to you. Many try, most fail. Lets hope you are one of the sucessful ones!

[gib]

Read my post again I did not compare ETH price to BTC. I didn't even mention BTC.

Yes, I know, but my question for you (and anyone else who still holds hope for ETH) below remains:

At its peak value to BTC, 1 ETH bought 0.14 BTC. That was back in June of 2017. Since then it has declined to now being 1 Eth being able to purchase just 0.05 BTC. A terrible performance, and a perfect example of how those looking to buy "alts" to gain over BTC, instead end up behind over time. And as I said earlier, I expect this will continue. Do you agree? (Or do you believe this trend will reverse?). Shall we revisit, say, end of this year?

[obsidian]

Yes, I know, but my question for you (and anyone else who still holds hope for ETH) below remains:

At its peak value to BTC, 1 ETH bought 0.14 BTC. That was back in June of 2017. Since then it has declined to now being just 1 Eth being able to purchase 0.05 BTC. A terrible performance, and a perfect example of how those looking to buy "alts" to gain over ETH, instead end up behind. And as I said earlier, I expect this will continue. Do you agree? (Or do you believe this trend will reverse?). Shall we revisit, say, end of this year?

And in November 2016 the ETH / BTC pairing was 0.008 BTC. 0.05 / 0.008 = 6.25. Since November 2016 ETH has gained over a 6x valuation against BTC.

There are 120 million ETH vs a max supply of 21 million BTC. That's a 6X larger supply. Based on that, and perhaps this is not the right way to look at it, I can see ETH:BTC at 0.166 BTC.

It does not make sense to me that BTC would be worth 19.8X of ETH currently, based on the scarcity. Ethereum has numerous advantages over Bitcoin as far as capabilities go. What BTC has is a rabid Maxi base, a fawning media, and first mover advantage. Bitcoin is also less of a mouthful than Ethereum. It is easier to pronounce. McAfee mentioned that when he was alive. I would say Solana and Cardano also flows easier. It might sound simple but these things matter. Imagine if Ethereum was instead called: Wolfeschlegelsteinhausen bergerdorff

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubert_Blaine_Wolfeschlegelsteinhausenbergerdorff_Sr.

I would bet it would have been a complete failure - lol!

Also perhaps the valuation of 0.05 BTC means that ETH has room to gain against BTC. Could it be that BTC is overvalued relative to ETH? I think so, but that's just me. ETH has around a 6X circulating supply compared to BTC, as far as scarcity goes. It's inflation is currently lower.

See, it all depends on when you are looking at it. Note I am seeing a peak valuation of around 0.118 BTC in May 2017 - per TradingView. But you are correct, BTC vs ETH has fluctuated over the years. It has been up and down numerous times.

You bought most of your BTC when it was $5,000 - correct? It is now at $72,000 on April 8, so that's a gain of 14.4X for you.

I mined ETH for 4 years. At times I was getting 4 ETH per month with an electrical bill of $600 /month. Leaving hardware costs out that comes to $150 per ETH. I know this ignores the cost of the hardware, and the price of ETH at the time. But the hardware can be resold. The power supplies went up in value. The GPUs lost value. I have not sold anything because I am holding out in case the dollar loses a lot of value. Plus I have been lazy. I still have all the original hardware boxes.

I might be able to sell for the original value depending on what happens to the dollar. We have a very low-rate fixed mortgage. I might use the devalued dollars to pay off the mortgage. I am probably better off just selling the hardware and redeploying the cash though.

ETH is at $3,624 at this moment. $3,624 / $150 = 24.16x. If I add $150 per ETH for the depreciated hardware it comes to around a 12x. If ETH goes back to the ATH price of $4,800 it comes to a 16X for me. BTC is already past the previous ATH.

I would have been better off buying ETH at $80 instead of mining. But you don't know how things play out before it happens. I am a computer geek and like to play with hardware. That was my excuse for jumping into the mining craze. I just wanted to build rigs.

You can take a snapshot at various times to make it come out different for each investor.

What I am curious to see is how the upcoming halving affects the decentralization of BTC. Many miners might call it quits as the rewards are reduced. Time will tell. There are lots of unknowns. But I would not say I am that far off from you in terms of investment gains.

[gib]

And in November 2016 the ETH / BTC pairing was 0.008 BTC. 0.05 / 0.008 = 6.25. Since November 2016 ETH has gained over a 6x valuation against BTC.

There are 120 million ETH vs a max supply of 21 million BTC. That's a 6X larger supply. Based on that, and perhaps this is not the right way to look at it, I can see ETH:BTC at 0.166 BTC.

It does not make sense to me that BTC would be worth 19.8X of ETH currently, based on the scarcity. Ethereum has numerous advantages over Bitcoin as far as capabilities go. What BTC has is a rabid Maxi base, a fawning media, and first mover advantage. Bitcoin is also less of a mouthful than Ethereum. It is easier to pronounce. McAfee mentioned that when he was alive. I would say Solana and Cardano also flows easier. It might sound simple but these things matter. Imagine if Ethereum was instead called: Wolfeschlegelsteinhausen bergerdorff

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubert_Blaine_Wolfeschlegelsteinhausenbergerdorff_Sr.

I would bet it would have been a complete failure - lol!

Also perhaps the valuation of 0.05 BTC means that ETH has room to gain against BTC. Could it be that BTC is overvalued relative to ETH? I think so, but that's just me. ETH has around a 6X circulating supply compared to BTC, as far as scarcity goes. It's inflation is currently lower.

See, it all depends on when you are looking at it. Note I am seeing a peak valuation of around 0.118 BTC in May 2017 - per TradingView. But you are correct, BTC vs ETH has fluctuated over the years. It has been up and down numerous times.

You bought most of your BTC when it was $5,000 - correct? It is now at $72,000 on April 8, so that's a gain of 14.4X for you.

I mined ETH for 4 years. At times I was getting 4 ETH per month with an electrical bill of $600 /month. Leaving hardware costs out that comes to $150 per ETH. I know this ignores the cost of the hardware, and the price of ETH at the time. But the hardware can be resold. The power supplies went up in value. The GPUs lost value. I have not sold anything because I am holding out in case the dollar loses a lot of value. Plus I have been lazy. I still have all the original hardware boxes.

I might be able to sell for the original value depending on what happens to the dollar. We have a very low-rate fixed mortgage. I might use the devalued dollars to pay off the mortgage. I am probably better off just selling the hardware and redeploying the cash though.

ETH is at $3,624 at this moment. $3,624 / $150 = 24.16x. If I add $150 per ETH for the depreciated hardware it comes to around a 12x. If ETH goes back to the ATH price of $4,800 it comes to a 16X for me. BTC is already past the previous ATH.

I would have been better off buying ETH at $80 instead of mining. But you don't know how things play out before it happens. I am a computer geek and like to play with hardware. That was my excuse for jumping into the mining craze. I just wanted to build rigs.

You can take a snapshot at various times to make it come out different for each investor.

What I am curious to see is how the upcoming halving affects the decentralization of BTC. Many miners might call it quits as the rewards are reduced. Time will tell. There are lots of unknowns. But I would not say I am that far off from you in terms of investment gains.

Good discussion, but I think you are mixing up a few concepts here..

if you look at your graph, (and as I have explained many times before), almost any alt will outperform BTC for a short period of time after launch. So, if you take a date of 2015or 2016, of course you will see ETH "outperform" for a period of time after its launch. What we as investors need to do is be forward-looking. So, if we take a more reasonable time period,  we can see Eth appears to be on a gradual decline vs BTC. This caught many off-guard, who expected to see another 5x to BTC this cycle. They have learned a lesson here, and indeed, this cycle, so far ETH is not even 1:1, let along 5x to BTC.

The circulating supply is really totally illogical, must like how many people think that doing a stock split (or airdrops) makes a company more valuable. The market-cap remains exactly the same, the price of each share being downward inverse to the amount of dilution. Many in the "crypto community" still need to learn basic economics and mathematical concepts. But again, lessons are learned each cycle, and each cycle eventually brings such people to BTC.

No-one likes to hear they are being scammed when buying alts, but eventually the learn.

As for scarcity, BTC's scarcity is absolute. Eth's is, can, has been, and will be, changed at the whim of Vatlik and the "Ethereum Foundation" this re-creating the entire problem BTC was designed to avoid and solve. Eth is used for other things, but it has long lost the "global digital monetary protocol" narrative to BTC which is rock solid, and that in turn demands a huge predium as a result (which you now see in the comparative market caps, and the gradual decline of ETH to BTC over the last few years).

I don't know my exact BTC buy in price, but yes must be around 5k. In the run up to the 20K peak I bought most at 3K, and eventually sold almost all at around 15K (in a panic, thinking BTC was over). Made a 5x return in less than a year. I then rebought most in the 3-5K range once the dust had settled, but then also recall many top ups all along the way back up. (Indeed, I still nibble away now, but only minor amounts to my stack). So I was kind of lucky doing the 5x sell and rebuy first time around. Now onwards its just long term hodl. I am also not convinced we will see cycles in a similar pattern to prior cycles - conventional wisdom is that we will see a peak mid to late 2025 based on prior cycles - lets see.

Pretty cool to mine. I am thinking of doing some myself, more just to support the network. I have also considered raising funds to do it on a massive scale in a developing country, but that is a whole other discussion for another day...

[obsidian]

Good discussion, but I think you are mixing up a few concepts here..

if you look at your graph, (and as I have explained many times before), almost any alt will outperform BTC for a short period of time after launch. So, if you take a date of 2015or 2016, of course you will see ETH "outperform" for a period of time after its launch. What we as investors need to do is be forward-looking. So, if we take a more reasonable time period,  we can see Eth appears to be on a gradual decline vs BTC. This caught many off-guard, who expected to see another 5x to BTC this cycle. They have learned a lesson here, and indeed, this cycle, so far ETH is not even 1:1, let along 5x to BTC.

The circulating supply is really totally illogical, must like how many people think that doing a stock split (or airdrops) makes a company more valuable. The market-cap remains exactly the same, the price of each share being downward inverse to the amount of dilution. Many in the "crypto community" still need to learn basic economics and mathematical concepts. But again, lessons are learned each cycle, and each cycle eventually brings such people to BTC.

No-one likes to hear they are being scammed when buying alts, but eventually the learn.

As for scarcity, BTC's scarcity is absolute. Eth's is, can, has been, and will be, changed at the whim of Vatlik and the "Ethereum Foundation" this re-creating the entire problem BTC was designed to avoid and solve. Eth is used for other things, but it has long lost the "global digital monetary protocol" narrative to BTC which is rock solid, and that in turn demands a huge predium as a result (which you now see in the comparative market caps, and the gradual decline of ETH to BTC over the last few years).

I don't know my exact BTC buy in price, but yes must be around 5k. In the run up to the 20K peak I bought most at 3K, and eventually sold almost all at around 15K (in a panic, thinking BTC was over). Made a 5x return in less than a year. I then rebought most in the 3-5K range once the dust had settled, but then also recall many top ups all along the way back up. (Indeed, I still nibble away now, but only minor amounts to my stack). So I was kind of lucky doing the 5x sell and rebuy first time around. Now onwards its just long term hodl. I am also not convinced we will see cycles in a similar pattern to prior cycles - conventional wisdom is that we will see a peak mid to late 2025 based on prior cycles - lets see.

Pretty cool to mine. I am thinking of doing some myself, more just to support the network. I have also considered raising funds to do it on a massive scale in a developing country, but that is a whole other discussion for another day...

Well speaking for myself, there is no way I am going to convert 50% (or any amount) of my ETH to BTC and incur a taxable event in the process. The benefits would have to outweigh the taxes. It's no different than Michael Saylor who wants to avoid paying taxes. I live in the USA, have work here, my family is here. I am not going to move to a tax haven anytime soon. If I did not have those constraints then maybe.

If I were to allocate more cash into crypto, then sure, I'd get some BTC. But I don't plan to. At this point, I plan to cash out what I initially invested + a little bonus, when I think the time is right. I'll leave that bonus ready to buy more crypto in case there are big corrections. That way I am sitting on house money and not stressing about it. I did my DCA back in the day and that was enough risk for me. I also paid taxes without cashing out, because of staking and mining profits. Sure, I deducted electrical and equipment expenses. But in the end, I still owed taxes which I had to pay out of pocket.

You mentioned that you don't have to pay taxes on your stuff. So you can go in and out of cryptos at a whim.

I agree, that Ethereum has been on a downward trend since mid-2022. In 2021 it gained against Bitcoin. Then it went sideways and in mid-2022 it started to trend down, per the chart. But I don't think it is clear yet which way this is going to go in the long run. I have my doubts about the Bitcoin POW model as mining rewards keep decreasing. How decentralized will it remain? Time will tell.

[gib]

Well speaking for myself, there is no way I am going to convert 50% (or any amount) of my ETH to BTC and incur a taxable event in the process. The benefits would have to outweigh the taxes. It's no different than Michael Saylor who wants to avoid paying taxes. I live in the USA, have work here, my family is here. I am not going to move to a tax haven anytime soon. If I did not have those constraints then maybe.

If I were to allocate more cash into crypto, then sure, I'd get some BTC. But I don't plan to. At this point, I plan to cash out what I initially invested + a little bonus, when I think the time is right. I'll leave that bonus ready to buy more crypto in case there are big corrections. That way I am sitting on house money and not stressing about it. I did my DCA back in the day and that was enough risk for me. I also paid taxes without cashing out, because of staking and mining profits. Sure, I deducted electrical and equipment expenses. But in the end, I still owed taxes which I had to pay out of pocket.

You mentioned that you don't have to pay taxes on your stuff. So you can go in and out of cryptos at a whim.

I agree, that Ethereum has been on a downward trend since mid-2022. In 2021 it gained against Bitcoin. Then it went sideways and in mid-2022 it started to trend down, per the chart. But I don't think it is clear yet which way this is going to go in the long run. I have my doubts about the Bitcoin POW model as mining rewards keep decreasing. How decentralized will it remain? Time will tell.

Man - that tax stuff really is another world for me. Almost all my buddies are in the same position as me (based in tax free jurisdictions) and so the concept of a "capital gain" tax seems totally foreign to me. Some are Americans who have long given up US citizenship, but even then it still comes back to haunt them sometimes, with banks doing KYC asking if they were ever "a former US citizen". We all shake our heads at how so many people with options still want to become Americans, even with all the downside burden of mandatory taxes (even if you live outside of the US!) that comes with this "privilege".

Sounds like you have done well. At some point, those with big unrealized gains, will need to decide how to handle, if they just pack up and leave for a tax friendlier country. Many countries will happily role out the carpet any Bitcoiner. Easy to do if your Sats are in cold storage. Harder if they are locked in ETF's. I am not a tax expert, but maybe it would be possible to borrow against the BTC as a security for money loaned in fiat, but never selling the asset itself, and therefore not creating a taxable event? There would have to be a way around this. Also, of course, if you acquired you Sats peer to peer, away from a KYC compliant exchange or bank, you might also be safe.

[Flexacon]

Yes, I know, but my question for you (and anyone else who still holds hope for ETH) below remains:

At its peak value to BTC, 1 ETH bought 0.14 BTC. That was back in June of 2017. Since then it has declined to now being 1 Eth being able to purchase just 0.05 BTC. A terrible performance, and a perfect example of how those looking to buy "alts" to gain over BTC, instead end up behind over time. And as I said earlier, I expect this will continue. Do you agree? (Or do you believe this trend will reverse?). Shall we revisit, say, end of this year?

I haven't held ETH for a long time, at least not in the expectation of seeing profit from it, but I have used it to provide liquidity and stake for airdrops and points. With hindsight I wish I had done more of this as it was the easiest and lowest risk money to be made in the space.

I don't really care what BTC, ETH, or any other ALT were doing in 2017, because every cycle different. The trends in every cycle is different. I prefer to adjust to each cycle and even front run the trends if I can, so lets say this.

Even with my pessimistic/bearish bias on ETH price on it's own I still expect it to match if not better bitcoin price action from their 2022 cycles low to their next cycle highs. Are you willing to revisit this?

[Flexacon]

US citizens who do not want to give it up just need to move to Puerto Rico for 6 months and 1 day and are then entitled to tax free crypto. At least this was the case when I last looked a couple of years back.

I set up a "business" in Dubai to do the same.

[gib]

I don't really care what BTC, ETH, or any other ALT were doing in 2017, because every cycle different. The trends in every cycle is different. I prefer to adjust to each cycle and even front run the trends if I can, so lets say this.

Even with my pessimistic/bearish bias on ETH price on it's own I still expect it to match if not better bitcoin price action from their 2022 cycles low to their next cycle highs. Are you willing to revisit this?

I expect BTC to outperform. Yes, lets revisit (although I am not even sure we will see "cycles" like we have seen in the part - at least not cycles do much influenced by the halving, but more likely global economic macro-cycles).

[Amerian Muscle]

I ended up selling the gold and when I sold it started pumping. I have been depressed since, truly brutal. I just a few minutes ago bought 1 bitcoin after weeks of mental gymnastics and end of the world feelings.  hopefully all will end well

[Amerian Muscle]

I kept the other half of the gold money in cash just in case bitcoin will now.go to zero or take a huge hit.

[SouJerz]

I would hold gold right now could gold could be entering a bull market just topped 2100 I think. Maybe we see 2500 GLD?

In hind sight this was pretty good advice if you had taken it.

[gib]

I ended up selling the gold and when I sold it started pumping. I have been depressed since, truly brutal. I just a few minutes ago bought 1 bitcoin after weeks of mental gymnastics and end of the world feelings.  hopefully all will end well

You did the right thing. Over the next decade, I believe BTC will 10x outperform gold. Yes, BTC will be more volatile along the way, but long term / zoomed out you did it right. Second, quite apart from the expected outperformance, there are also some really other good reasons to be holding BTC vs gold. If/when the shit really hits the fan, you will understand why.

Any time you make an investment, there is basically a 50/50 chance it will be "down" the next day. Ignore the noise - invest for the long term trend.

I hold a little gold myself for a range of reasons. Love the feeling of holding it. And loved the pure ability to buy something which took so much effort to extract and bring it to the point where I as a customer could become its owner. I have not calculated exactly, but I think my gold is around 2.5% the value of the BTC I have.

[Amerian Muscle]

In hind sight this was pretty good advice if you had taken it.

Yes. My shit is fucked up. Too late to cry now so lets see where this takes me.

[Amerian Muscle]

You did the right thing. Over the next decade, I believe BTC will 10x outperform gold. Yes, BTC will be more volatile along the way, but long term / zoomed out you did it right. Second, quite apart from the expected outperformance, there are also some really other good reasons to be holding BTC vs gold. If/when the shit really hits the fan, you will understand why.

Any time you make an investment, there is basically a 50/50 chance it will be "down" the next day. Ignore the noise - invest for the long term trend.

I hold a little gold myself for a range of reasons. Love the feeling of holding it. And loved the pure ability to buy something which took so much effort to extract and bring it to the point where I as a customer could become its owner. I have not calculated exactly, but I think my gold is around 2.5% the value of the BTC I have.

You are most likely right. I regret selling gold too early, but I regret a thousand times more buying bitcoin so late. I see my cancelled orders for 3 bitcoin last year at around 25k. Cancelled them because I got scared thinking it would go to zero after buying it. I look at those cancelled orders to remind me that my instincts are always completely wrong. Or maybe they are right and then overpowered by doubt and fear

All this stuff is psychologically complex to deal with but I figure I cannot keep dwelling on missed opportunities

[Amerian Muscle]

I put a sell order for 1 million

[gib]

Nice little short seller shakeout last few days, with BTC going from 72.5K down to around 67.5K (and now on the way back up again).

This was thread was started as BTC was poised to hit 5K. Now we see 5K movements  in price (the entire value of a BTC back then) in a single day, which gives you a sense of scale and how much BTC's market cap has grown.

We can expect to see some vol in the lead up and aftermath, of the halving (due around 18 April). But its all good - buy on any dip if you can.

Some speculators make money on these movements, some lose. But is just so easy if you hodl, knowing that despite all the short term vol, its just up and up and up over time...