Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[gib]

Come on now bro. Don't just post this without providing your take on it.

Some are saying it bearish ETH (guessing you lean this way), some saying it could mean grayscale withdrew it cos they know the spot ETF is gonna get approved. Maybe not this month, but for the blackrock deadline. Some say it doesn't mean anything.

My take? Well with the recent statements from the SEC about almost all crypto not being compliant with SEC filing and disclosure regulations, and with it seemingly going very quiet on the ETH spot applications, and there being very small demand for Eth in the HK ETH - overall I would say, we will not see an ETH ETF anytime soon. As I have said, it would essentially be a perversion of the law. Best shot would be for legislative change, and that will not come, if at all, until next election. So, I would not rule it out entirely, but I see it as unlikely, and would suggest tempering expectations.

[gib]

Halving came and went.  At what point can we say it did nothing for the price of bitcoin when many thought it would make it increase significantly?

Assuming demand remains consistent, with the new supply meeting some of that demand, the price has to go up given the new supply has halved (to the extent that drop in new supply has not been priced in).

Given the recent US ETF (and more coming in other countries), slowing outflows from GBTC, and a possible peak in interest rates, combined with this halving in supply, I would expect the price to keep rising over time, and at some point quite sharply.

[obsidian]

My take? Well with the recent statements from the SEC about almost all crypto not being compliant with SEC filing and disclosure regulations, and with it seemingly going very quiet on the ETH spot applications, and there being very small demand for Eth in the HK ETH - overall I would say, we will not see an ETH ETF anytime soon. As I have said, it would essentially be a perversion of the law. Best shot would be for legislative change, and that will not come, if at all, until next election. So, I would not rule it out entirely, but I see it as unlikely, and would suggest tempering expectations.

Perversion of law?! LMAO. What law?! The Securities act was established many decades before cryptocurrencies were developed. Securities require contracts. There are no contracts trading any cryptocurrencies. There is literally no difference between you buying Bitcoin or me buying (or mining) Ethereum or Dogecoin. We both bought it with FIAT. We both did not sign any contracts. We both expect a profit. In my case I bought some Ethereum but the vast majority was mined via Proof of Work.

The SEC will lose in court if they try to claim that the Ethereum token is a security. Proof of Stake does not change the classification either. Setting up a solo staking validator takes more work and is a lot more complicated than plugging an ASIC miner into an outlet to mine BTC. Proof of Stake validators are "workers", just like miners are workers. They need hardware, electricity, internet, a building, cooling, and regular maintenance. With Proof of Stake there is the added issue that your staked ETH could be subject to incremental slashing should the validator be offline for prolonged periods.

I would argue that Ethereum staking is also more decentralized than Bitcoin mining.

The initial ICO of Ethereum might be seen as a securities violation - we'll see. Bitcoin was sold to acquire Ethereum. But the many subsequent mining and purchasing of Ethereum to third parties were not securities violations. The token itself is not a security. This was proved in court with the Ripple case. And solo Proof of Stake requires a lot of work and technical expertise on the part of the participant. That in addition to the absence of any contracts means POS Ethereum is not a security at all. But the courts could prove that if needed.

[obsidian]

BTC is mined globally and will be mined anywhere a rig can be attached to cheap energy. Here is a good heat map of global mining distribution.

https://ccaf.io/cbnsi/cbeci/mining_map

I really don't see an ASIC miner as a rig. To me it is more an appliance like a microwave. It is unboxed, plugged in, and there you go with your centralized ASIC mining. GPU mining was on a different level of complexity and work required to set it up and run in. I actually despise ASIC mining. It's a device tweaked to do one thing and that's it.

[obsidian]

Miners are now also getting good fees from Bitcoin  L2s, ordinal, inscriptions, runes etc. Break even isn't as simple to calculate as before.

They did. But it might be temporary. It does not have long term viability I think. It has already dropped.

https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/bitcoin-fees-normalize-after-runes-coming-out-party-abruptly-ends

Data from Dune analytics shows that Runes’ daily transaction count tanked 97.5% to 19,000 from an all-time high of 753,584 on April 23. The pull-back coincides with Runes’ share of Bitcoin’s on-chain activity dropping to 30% from 81.3% over the same period.

The complaint was Ethereum was too expensive for NFTs etc. And Solana jumped in to fill the void. Then Solana got spammed because transactions were so inexpensive. The Solana network bogged down and they have been dealing with failed transactions. Ethereum released the Dencun upgrade to lower L2 fees. It worked great, reference the Coinbase ETH L2 BASE success.

So why would you pay high fees to get a BTC NFT when you can just buy BTC itself?

But the Ethereum deflationary tokenomics has been impacted. The inflation is around 0.4% now. It could potentially go negative if a tremendous amount of activity is seen. 0.4% is not a terrible inflation, better than Solana for sure. It is also lower than the current 0.85% Bitcoin inflation rate. I know eventually the BTC inflation rate will be 0.05% in 2040. But the issue is how do you compensate miners at that point.

https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-inflation/

[SouJerz]

Halving came and went.  At what point can we say it did nothing for the price of bitcoin when many thought it would make it increase significantly?

It normally takes about 200 days after halving before bitcoin reaches a new all time high.  keep stacking those satoshis!

[Mayday]

BTC is mined globally and will be mined anywhere a rig can be attached to cheap energy. Here is a good heat map of global mining distribution.

https://ccaf.io/cbnsi/cbeci/mining_map

Yep, the US will control the BTC network shortly. Funny I started talking about this and Trump has now said crypto needs to be in the US 👀

The network Will be under US govt control in the near future. Ahhh the 2025 narrative of the USD pegging to BTC to get the bullrun fired up.

If you look at the charts from the same periods in the past, it has behaved similarly.

Historically, there has been a dip followed by a period of consolidation before resuming the uptrend.

We all know this. Why do you think it hit an ATH? It’s the same but the halving and ETF was front run which made it different. It was actually a major top, not a little one.

This now means the ‘consolidation’ as you put it will also look different. People gunna brag about dip buying down to 42k. The party gets started well below that.

[obsidian]

Come on now bro. Don't just post this without providing your take on it.

Some are saying it bearish ETH (guessing you lean this way), some saying it could mean grayscale withdrew it cos they know the spot ETF is gonna get approved. Maybe not this month, but for the blackrock deadline. Some say it doesn't mean anything.

https://www.dlnews.com/articles/regulation/grayscale-to-focus-on-spot-ethereum-products-says-ceo/

Grayscale will focus energies on spot Ethereum products, CEO says

- Grayscale Investments has withdrawn its application to provide an Ethereum futures ETF.
- Michael Sonneshein, Grayscale’s CEO, said he is optimistic that the SEC will approve the firm’s application to convert its Ethereum trust to a spot ETF

Grayscale Investments will focus on converting its Ethereum trust — the world’s largest — to spot exchange-traded products, CEO Michael Sonnenshein said on Wednesday.

“At Grayscale we decided to focus our energy on our spot products. That’s really core to our DNA,” he said during an event in London that was hosted by the Financial Times.

On Tuesday, media reported that the crypto-native asset manager had withdrawn its application to the Securities and Exchange Commission to provide an Ether futures ETF.

It had filed the application in October.

Sonnenshein said the asset manager was withdrawing the application because a number of futures products are already available for investors.

As DL News has reported, VanEck’s EFUT and ProShares’ EETH dominate the brutally competitive Ethereum ETF field, accounting for over 90% of total trading volume at launch.

“Sometimes we will file for a product. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to come to market,” Sonnenshein said

[gib]

https://www.dlnews.com/articles/regulation/grayscale-to-focus-on-spot-ethereum-products-says-ceo/

Grayscale will focus energies on spot Ethereum products, CEO says

- Grayscale Investments has withdrawn its application to provide an Ethereum futures ETF.
- Michael Sonneshein, Grayscale’s CEO, said he is optimistic that the SEC will approve the firm’s application to convert its Ethereum trust to a spot ETF

Grayscale Investments will focus on converting its Ethereum trust — the world’s largest — to spot exchange-traded products, CEO Michael Sonnenshein said on Wednesday.

“At Grayscale we decided to focus our energy on our spot products. That’s really core to our DNA,” he said during an event in London that was hosted by the Financial Times.

On Tuesday, media reported that the crypto-native asset manager had withdrawn its application to the Securities and Exchange Commission to provide an Ether futures ETF.

It had filed the application in October.

Sonnenshein said the asset manager was withdrawing the application because a number of futures products are already available for investors.

As DL News has reported, VanEck’s EFUT and ProShares’ EETH dominate the brutally competitive Ethereum ETF field, accounting for over 90% of total trading volume at launch.

“Sometimes we will file for a product. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to come to market,” Sonnenshein said

Meanwhile, there is no ETH ETF....

[obsidian]

Meanwhile, there is no ETH ETF....

Spot in USA... yet...

[Mayday]

Spot in USA... yet...

It’ll happen.

Grayscale hold 3% so it’s the same warning I gave for BTC…… but….. what if his deal with the US was only for BTC? What if he doesn’t need to bleed out ETH?

It’s all about the ‘what if’ on ETH ETF. I’d love Barry to hold his ETH. Then we will get the flippening 😀

[Flexacon]

He's a simple thesis/narritive for the next 6 months.

Bidens administration FUDs crypto (including BTC in cold wallets) CHECK

Trump has gone pro crypto and will probably lead the presidential polls going into the election. CHECKish

Crypto markets front runs election and Trumps good polling. Market peaks around election time (actual result doesn't matter, only that Trump leading polling)

[Amerian Muscle]

250k btc by 2030

[obsidian]

It’ll happen.

Grayscale hold 3% so it’s the same warning I gave for BTC…… but….. what if his deal with the US was only for BTC? What if he doesn’t need to bleed out ETH?

It’s all about the ‘what if’ on ETH ETF. I’d love Barry to hold his ETH. Then we will get the flippening 😀

I also think so. There's a lot of ETH FUD going around. It is massively underpriced compared to Bitcoin.

People that lack a technical background don't understand the issues facing Bitcoin Proof of Work in the coming years as multiple halvenings strain the miners. The security of Bitcoin depends on a decentralized miner network. I am not sure how this will be possible when the cost to mine would exclude all but a few players. Bitcoin ASIC mining does not impress me. It's a dedicated appliance that anyone can setup easily. At least with GPU mining you needed technical skills to setup and configure the systems. It was labor intensive.

I'd love to see Saylor assemble the rigs I built in the same amount of time. He pisses me off. He says everything but Bitcoin is a commodity and meanwhile all he did was buy Bitcoin with the expectation of making a profit (on the work of others), while at the same time doing zero work. Well, the only work he does is trying to promote BTC to help pump his bags. But he's not mining BTC and doing "work", he buys it. He's a hypocrite. And now he owns 1% of BTC. He is one greedy bastard. Just once I'd love to see someone with technical knowledge confront his ass and talk over him.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/ark-invest-21shares-drop-staking-from-ethereum-etf-proposal

ARK and 21Shares drop staking plans from Ethereum ETF proposal

Bloomberg ETF analyst Erich Balchunas suggests the update may be a response to potential SEC feedback despite no official comments.

[Flexacon]

I also think so. There's a lot of ETH FUD going around. It is massively underpriced compared to Bitcoin.

People that lack a technical background don't understand the issues facing Bitcoin Proof of Work in the coming years as multiple halvenings strain the miners. The security of Bitcoin depends on a decentralized miner network. I am not sure how this will be possible when the cost to mine would exclude all but a few players. Bitcoin ASIC mining does not impress me. It's a dedicated appliance that anyone can setup easily. At least with GPU mining you needed technical skills to setup and configure the systems. It was labor intensive.

Pointed these things out on here a long time ago.

Doesn't matter any more. Blackrock and tradfi will strong arm an unpopular solution through to handle the issue. By then Maxis will either be too wealthy to care or a small minority that no ones pays any attention too.

An example of a solution might be to fork bitcoin, make all undeclared and non KYC bitcoin illegal/worth $0 and then if needed eventually double the supply.

Study the gold reserve act 1934

[Mayday]

I also think so. There's a lot of ETH FUD going around. It is massively underpriced compared to Bitcoin.

People that lack a technical background don't understand the issues facing Bitcoin Proof of Work in the coming years as multiple halvenings strain the miners. The security of Bitcoin depends on a decentralized miner network. I am not sure how this will be possible when the cost to mine would exclude all but a few players. Bitcoin ASIC mining does not impress me. It's a dedicated appliance that anyone can setup easily. At least with GPU mining you needed technical skills to setup and configure the systems. It was labor intensive.

I'd love to see Saylor assemble the rigs I built in the same amount of time. He pisses me off. He says everything but Bitcoin is a commodity and meanwhile all he did was buy Bitcoin with the expectation of making a profit (on the work of others), while at the same time doing zero work. Well, the only work he does is trying to promote BTC to help pump his bags. But he's not mining BTC and doing "work", he buys it. He's a hypocrite. And now he owns 1% of BTC. He is one greedy bastard. Just once I'd love to see someone with technical knowledge confront his ass and talk over him.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/ark-invest-21shares-drop-staking-from-ethereum-etf-proposal

ARK and 21Shares drop staking plans from Ethereum ETF proposal

Bloomberg ETF analyst Erich Balchunas suggests the update may be a response to potential SEC feedback despite no official comments.

Ponder what the powers that be want and that’s the answer.

That’s why I gave my nightmare scenario.

Wall St now control the largest inflows/outflows. The US is the largest player in mining and shortly will control the network. It’s end game now for the leaders who want to use blockchain to remove freedom and privacy.

Think of those evil movies where the innocent must go willingly to the devil. CBDC are coming and the innocent must willingly give up their privacy……. This is the game being played at the moment.

EDIT I forgot to add, the largest energy event in our lifetime will occur inside of 6yrs (likely inside the next 2-3 which will dwarf the Global Lockdown impact at a sustained level. Saylor and maxis are betting against this, personally I’m betting on the Overlords to win, not the maxis.

[Amerian Muscle]

, the largest energy event in our lifetime will occur inside of 6yrs (likely inside the next 2-3 which will dwarf the Global Lockdown impact at a sustained level. Saylor and maxis are betting against this, personally I’m betting on the Overlords to win, not the maxis.

what are you basing this on?

[SouJerz]

Why doesn't Ether ever dip lower than 2,800 and normally floats around 3,000 even with bad news of the ETF and downturn in the crypto market as whole?

[Amerian Muscle]

my dream is to breakeven from my crypto gambling journey, and drive off into the sunshine without any losses weighing me down. if I can just get back all I lost I would be sitting pretty good right now. it seems pretty unlikely 

[Flexacon]

Why doesn't Ether ever dip lower than 2,800 and normally floats around 3,000 even with bad news of the ETF and downturn in the crypto market as whole?

2 of the biggest and richest scammers in the space (Richard Heart and Justin Sun) are also 2 of they biggest recent ETH whale buyers and stakers. They will probably defend certain levels.

[Mayday]

what are you basing this on?

I have posted about the emissions targets for years. It is the path we are on, hence I say you need to start thinking about what the overlords want, not what you want. 

The target for oil is 77mbpd by 2030. We use around 103mbpd and during the Global lockdown we still used 91mbpd.

We have 5.5yrs left. We have war in Ukraine and Russia (energy) and we have war with Israel and Palestine (energy).

[Amerian Muscle]

I have posted about the emissions targets for years. It is the path we are on, hence I say you need to start thinking about what the overlords want, not what you want. 

The target for oil is 77mbpd by 2030. We use around 103mbpd and during the Global lockdown we still used 91mbpd.

We have 5.5yrs left. We have war in Ukraine and Russia (energy) and we have war with Israel and Palestine (energy).

i was hoping 90% of the world population would be dead by now after the vaccinations, but it was a ruse

[Mayday]

FWIW I have started buying tokens already -85% down that I follow/own already.

When mkt cap is this low, you start buying.

[SouJerz]

FWIW I have started buying tokens already -85% down that I follow/own already.

When mkt cap is this low, you start buying.

Cardano, XRP, polkadot?

[Mayday]

Cardano, XRP, polkadot?

I don’t buy old coins, that’s where the trapped people are.

XRP bagholders are a lesson for what lies ahead.