Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Mayday]

For shits and giggles:

https://www.barchart.com/crypto/quotes/%5EETHUSD/interactive-chart

Visited barchart.com and downloaded the entire ETH price history via one of their templates as a PNG file. Imported the PNG into a CAD program. Set the units to decimals, and scaled it to match the lines of barchart. Their y-axis have a $200.00 grid. I scaled the image so each line is at 200.00. Constructed the entire grid and existing price history. Marked the ATH peak prices in January 2018 and November 2021. Made a block of the entire existing price line. Copied the block by snapping from the 2018 ATH to the 2021 ATH. Stretched the y-axis by the same factor as the previous peaks.

If history were to repeat (no guarantee of course), and disregarding diminishing returns:

ETH PRICE:

October 2024:  +/- $3,000 - $3,200
December 2024: +/- $8,000 - $8,200
February 2025: Peaks at +/- $11,800
April 2025: Crashes to +/- $9,400
September 2025: ATH peak at +/- $19,600
April 2026: Crashes to +/- $4,200

Replicating the process for the following 4 years yields an ETH ATH price of +/- $84,000 in July of 2029 - lol!

Of course, these are all just for laughs and probably will not happen. Lots of shit can happen. WW3, unknown black swan, hyperinflation.

But it shows how wild crypto prices have ranged in the past. Ethereum went from a low of $80 in 2019 to $4,800 in 2021. Bitcoin went from $1,000 to $19,500 in 2017. Supply and demand, FOMO, and emotion can create wild swings when governments don't meddle in the price action.

Here are some screenshots.

 

[SouJerz]

Printer go BRRRRRRRRRRR!

[IroNat]

Are you rich yet?

[GymnJuice]

Are you rich yet?

What do you mean yet? I thought that was a requirement for a getbig login? 

[IroNat]

What do you mean yet? I thought that was a requirement for a getbig login? 

Oops, should have said "richer".

[Mayday]

“Sure, I may have lost my entire life savings in crypto but I bet I gained my entire life savings in wisdom” - Wrecked Pleb validating his gambling Addiction

[obsidian]

“Sure, I may have lost my entire life savings in crypto but I bet I gained my entire life savings in wisdom” - Wrecked Pleb validating his gambling Addition

What if BTC does this? Based on previous cycles of course. The US debt keeps growing. Countries are starting to say no to backing a weaponized USD.

How would your line look if someone asked you to draw the future price discovery?

https://finbold.com/u-s-will-pay-1-14-trillion-in-interest-payments-on-debt-this-year/

In a troubling revelation from the latest U.S. Budget Deficit report, interest payments on the U.S. federal debt are projected to hit $1.14 trillion for the whole year, raising serious concerns about the nation’s fiscal sustainability.

This surge in government outlays, combined with declining tax revenues, led to June’s fiscal deficit nearly tripling year-over-year to $228 billion, significantly overshooting the consensus estimate of $175 billion.

Economist E.J. Antoni reports that, according to the Federal Reserve’s June data, the interest on the national debt now equals 76% of all personal income taxes collected by the government, the Treasury’s largest revenue source.

[chaos]

What is xrp

[Mayday]

What if BTC does this? Based on previous cycles of course. The US debt keeps growing. Countries are starting to say no to backing a weaponized USD.

How would your line look if someone asked you to draw the future price discovery?

https://finbold.com/u-s-will-pay-1-14-trillion-in-interest-payments-on-debt-this-year/

In a troubling revelation from the latest U.S. Budget Deficit report, interest payments on the U.S. federal debt are projected to hit $1.14 trillion for the whole year, raising serious concerns about the nation’s fiscal sustainability.

This surge in government outlays, combined with declining tax revenues, led to June’s fiscal deficit nearly tripling year-over-year to $228 billion, significantly overshooting the consensus estimate of $175 billion.

Economist E.J. Antoni reports that, according to the Federal Reserve’s June data, the interest on the national debt now equals 76% of all personal income taxes collected by the government, the Treasury’s largest revenue source.

So what if the debt grows. So what if 3rd world countries use a different currency instead of the USD.

Price was already in discovery. Did you miss it or do you ignore it because it doesn’t suit what you thought should happen?

I already gave my broader outcome 100 times. I have price directions, targets and dates so it’s no bother for me.

[IroNat]

The U.S. is using inflation to lower the debt.

Fixed debt instruments are losing value.

All that debt China holds is losing value.

Egg prices just went up.  It's no yolk.

[loco]

The U.S. is using inflation to lower the debt.

Fixed debt instruments are losing value.

All that debt China holds is losing value.

Egg prices just went up.  It's no yolk.

Eggxactly!   

[obsidian]

So what if the debt grows. So what if 3rd world countries use a different currency instead of the USD.

Price was already in discovery. Did you miss it or do you ignore it because it doesn’t suit what you thought should happen?

I already gave my broader outcome 100 times. I have price directions, targets and dates so it’s no bother for me.

All I wanted was your price-discovery line, whether up or down. Bitcoin's history would suggest a positive discovery, beyond $100,000. You have been bearish, the question is how bearish. I drew the line for you. I call it the MAYDAY LINE. I like the sound of that! Is that what you envision? A negative price discovery to break all previous trends? See attached.

[obsidian]

The U.S. is using inflation to lower the debt.

Fixed debt instruments are losing value.

All that debt China holds is losing value.

Egg prices just went up.  It's no yolk.

The US is the loser in the end. Russia has vast resources. They don't need the US for anything really. China's resources does not quite match Russia's. They have the bigger population.

Fun fact: The Russian AK47 is bigger than the Chinese AK47. Reason - Russians are bigger and can handle larger weapons. The Russian AK47 is too much for the average, smaller-statured Chinese.

[IroNat]

The US is the loser in the end. Russia has vast resources. They don't need the US for anything really. China's resources does not quite match Russia's. They have the bigger population.

Fun fact: The Russian AK47 is bigger than the Chinese AK47. Reason - Russians are bigger and can handle larger weapons. The Russian AK47 is too much for the average, smaller-statured Chinese.

What's the price of eggs in Russia?

[obsidian]

What's the price of eggs in Russia?

Russia: $1.41 for dozen eggs
USA: $3.00 for dozen eggs

Not sure how accurate these sources are:

https://www.tridge.com/news/the-average-cost-of-a-dozen-eggs-at-retail-in-the-#:~:text=The%20average%20retail%20price%20for%20a%20dozen%20eggs,price%20increase%20in%20December%202023%20compared%20to%202022.

The average retail price for a dozen eggs in Russia has decreased by 3% since January, now standing at 129.08 rubles. This comes despite a 61.35% price increase in December 2023 compared to 2022.

129.08 Rubles = $1.41

https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/average-cost-of-a-dozen-eggs/#:~:text=%E2%80%A2%20The%20average%20cost%20of%20a%20dozen%20eggs,differences%20and%20market%20fluctuations%20can%20impact%20egg%20prices.

The average cost of a dozen eggs in the U.S. is $3, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Though higher than in previous years, it’s still lower than the $4.82 consumers paid on average in January of 2023, when concerns about egg shortages sent the cost of eggs skyrocketing.

[gib]

Eth now down 33% to BTC this year (this is the worst its been all year).

What we are seeing on every down cycle is eth dropping more then BTC and on the upcycle, Eth gaining less than BTC. Its a slow bleed.

Obsidian - will you make the call at some point to convert the eth you have to BTC?

[gib]

All I wanted was your price-discovery line, whether up or down. Bitcoin's history would suggest a positive discovery, beyond $100,000. You have been bearish, the question is how bearish. I drew the line for you. I call it the MAYDAY LINE. I like the sound of that! Is that what you envision? A negative price discovery to break all previous trends? See attached.

Interesting...

[Mayday]

All I wanted was your price-discovery line, whether up or down. Bitcoin's history would suggest a positive discovery, beyond $100,000. You have been bearish, the question is how bearish. I drew the line for you. I call it the MAYDAY LINE. I like the sound of that! Is that what you envision? A negative price discovery to break all previous trends? See attached.

I’m not giving prices anymore because it doesn’t help. Saylor trolling everyone is pretty fucking funny though 😂

I have a plethora of awesome calls but my best one if it happens will be when I said over a year ago Biden is pulled from the election, Trump doesn’t win. Michelle Obama wins…..   

[obsidian]

Eth now down 33% to BTC this year (this is the worst its been all year).

What we are seeing on every down cycle is eth dropping more then BTC and on the upcycle, Eth gaining less than BTC. Its a slow bleed.

Obsidian - will you make the call at some point to convert the eth you have to BTC?

No, because the capital gains tax would be significant. And BTC has already outpaced ETH this year - why chase it now? I also know that long-term Bitcoin's POW solution is a dead-end. Bitcoin is already more centralized than Ethereum. You can't expect miners to secure Bitcoin at a loss. They have been mining at a loss for months. It will get worse every 4 years. Bitcoin also does not give yield to BTC holders. Ethereum does.

You need to zoom out. ETH has outperformed Bitcoin by a factor of 2 the past 5 years. My entry point into Ethereum was 6-7 years ago. Binance's BNB has outperformed BTC by a factor of 3.44.

We'll see what happens in the coming years. There are some bullish developments for Ethereum. The Grayscale ETHE is still bleeding. Give it more time...

https://dailyhodl.com/2024/08/24/entertainment-giant-sony-group-develops-new-ethereum-eth-layer-2-solution-soneium/

Entertainment Giant Sony Group Develops New Ethereum (ETH) Layer-2 Solution ‘Soneium’

Electronics and entertainment titan Sony is developing a new Ethereum (ETH) layer-2 blockchain called “Soneium.”

In a recent press release, Sony Group is announcing the development of Soneium as a means of further venturing into the world of web3.

According to Sony, taking advantage of blockchain technology will give a more streamlined, secure and decentralized experience for users.

“By developing blockchain, which is the basic infrastructure of web3, we will be able to provide comprehensive web3 solutions from the infrastructure to the application layer, rather than just providing partial services.

End users will be able to access Soneium through applications that are compatible with Soneium’s network, and will be able to interact with web3 games and NFT (non-fungible token) marketplaces provided by each app, as well as entertainment-related services.”

Furthermore, Sony notes that with Soneium, it will focus on onboarding new users to web3 and supporting content creators.

[gib]

All I wanted was your price-discovery line, whether up or down. Bitcoin's history would suggest a positive discovery, beyond $100,000. You have been bearish, the question is how bearish. I drew the line for you. I call it the MAYDAY LINE. I like the sound of that! Is that what you envision? A negative price discovery to break all previous trends? See attached.

This Mayday graph has the potential to become a GetBig classic in the years to come...

[gib]

No, because the capital gains tax would be significant. And BTC has already outpaced ETH this year - why chase it now? I also know that long-term Bitcoin's POW solution is a dead-end. Bitcoin is already more centralized than Ethereum. You can't expect miners to secure Bitcoin at a loss. They have been mining at a loss for months. It will get worse every 4 years. Bitcoin also does not give yield to BTC holders. Ethereum does.

You need to zoom out. ETH has outperformed Bitcoin by a factor of 2 the past 5 years. My entry point into Ethereum was 6-7 years ago. Binance's BNB has outperformed BTC by a factor of 3.44.

We'll see what happens in the coming years. There are some bullish developments for Ethereum. The Grayscale ETHE is still bleeding. Give it more time...

https://dailyhodl.com/2024/08/24/entertainment-giant-sony-group-develops-new-ethereum-eth-layer-2-solution-soneium/

Entertainment Giant Sony Group Develops New Ethereum (ETH) Layer-2 Solution ‘Soneium’

Electronics and entertainment titan Sony is developing a new Ethereum (ETH) layer-2 blockchain called “Soneium.”

In a recent press release, Sony Group is announcing the development of Soneium as a means of further venturing into the world of web3.

According to Sony, taking advantage of blockchain technology will give a more streamlined, secure and decentralized experience for users.

“By developing blockchain, which is the basic infrastructure of web3, we will be able to provide comprehensive web3 solutions from the infrastructure to the application layer, rather than just providing partial services.

End users will be able to access Soneium through applications that are compatible with Soneium’s network, and will be able to interact with web3 games and NFT (non-fungible token) marketplaces provided by each app, as well as entertainment-related services.”

Furthermore, Sony notes that with Soneium, it will focus on onboarding new users to web3 and supporting content creators.

Almost any "alt" will outperform BTC doing one cycle, post initial launch...What Eth is showing is that virtually none do so for consecutive cycles...

[obsidian]

I’m not giving prices anymore because it doesn’t help. Saylor trolling everyone is pretty fucking funny though 😂

I have a plethora of awesome calls but my best one if it happens will be when I said over a year ago Biden is pulled from the election, Trump doesn’t win. Michelle Obama wins…..

In the big picture, logically speaking, I don't see the Bitcoin or Ethereum price-line diving down per the MAYDAY LINE. That's based on the historic trend. Of course, an unknown black swan event could result in a MAYDAY LINE.

[obsidian]

Almost any "alt" will outperform BTC doing one cycle, post initial launch...What Eth is showing is that virtually none do so for consecutive cycles...

You're looking at a year or two timeline to show BTC outperforming an "alt". That's the same as you claiming any "alt" will outperform BTC in one cycle, only you are looking at a 1/2 cycle to say BTC is outperforming an "alt".

Let's go back 8 years:

ETH was around $11 in August 2016
BTC was around $550 in August 2016

ETH is currently around $2,700 in August 2024
BTC is currently around $63,500 in August 2024

2,700 / 11 = 245.45
63,500 / 550 = 115.45

245.45 / 115.45 = 2.12

From August 2016 to the present, ETH has outperformed BTC by a factor of two, spanning two cycles. You can go back another year to 2015 and then Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin by a factor of 8.

Let's wait and see what happens over the next 2 years.

[obsidian]

https://ultrasound.money/

 

[gib]

In the big picture, logically speaking, I don't see the Bitcoin or Ethereum price-line diving down per the MAYDAY LINE. That's based on the historic trend. Of course, an unknown black swan event could result in a MAYDAY LINE.

Agree - Indeed the next 12-18 months could be a boom period for BTC.