Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[gib]

For those interested in FileCoin, GreyScale is now doing a private placement for accredited investors.

See here: https://www.grayscale.com/crypto-products/grayscale-filecoin-trust?

Filecoin is one of the few "projects" I consider to be legitimate and with a calculatable fundamental value per coin.

[obsidian]

HOW do the ETH ETF inflows compare with BTC ETF’s?

The ETH ETF inflows turned positive recently. Meaning the total accumulated exceeded the Grayscale Outflows. Bitwise predicted that the US Spot ETH ETFs would be around $15 billion in the first year. On average ETF funds would have to maintain an inflow of $41 million per day. The past 6 trading sessions have exceeded that, with the biggest haul of $295.5 million on 11 November, 2024. See attached.

It's possible that these numbers could grow a lot more if ETH's price starts gaining traction. When staking is offered for Spot ETH ETF products they will be more popular and fund managers could lower their fees to zero because of the yields.

Will ETH ETFs reach $15 billion in the first year? Time will tell.

https://farside.co.uk/eth/

[obsidian]

Indeed - almost any alt starts to underperform to BTC after more then one cycle (for obvious reasons).

Doge, Solana, and BNB has outperformed BTC the past 1 year. ETH is down for now. But I think it will recover.

I have quite a bit of DOGE and BNB so that's great! Doge is up 421% compared to Bitcoin's 142%. That's a huge outperformance by order of magnitudes. And that's in a timeframe where Bitcoin received Spot ETF approvals and Trump's pump. It turns out Elon's D.O.G.E. pump is even bigger. Doge would have to rise to $11.87 to match BTC's market cap.

The charts don't lie GIB - BTC's performance compared with DOGE has been pathetic the past year! 

https://coinranking.com/

https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/06/21424614/vitalik-buterin-says-he-loves-doge-suggests-dogecoin-ethereum-collaboration-for-scalabilit

[obsidian]

Indeed - almost any alt starts to underperform to BTC after more then one cycle (for obvious reasons).

DOGE vs BTC gains in the past 5 years:

DOGE: 15,280%
BTC: 743.56%
ETH: 1,652.21%
BNB: 2,728.09%

https://coinranking.com/

[GymnJuice]

For those interested in FileCoin, GreyScale is now doing a private placement for accredited investors.

See here: https://www.grayscale.com/crypto-products/grayscale-filecoin-trust?

Filecoin is one of the few "projects" I consider to be legitimate and with a calculatable fundamental value per coin.

I don't know much about this stuff. So, my comparisons may not be appropriate. But it lists a management fee of 2.5% IBIT through Schwab is the bitcoin ETF I use and that has a gross expense ratio of 0.25%. Most of my regular index funds have fees around 0.03%. Obviously, these alternative coin funds are a different type of investment. What do you guys think of the listed management fee? Is that appropriate?

[gib]

I don't know much about this stuff. So, my comparisons may not be appropriate. But it lists a management fee of 2.5% IBIT through Schwab is the bitcoin ETF I use and that has a gross expense ratio of 0.25%. Most of my regular index funds have fees around 0.03%. Obviously, these alternative coin funds are a different type of investment. What do you guys think of the listed management fee? Is that appropriate?

You are right - far better off buying IBIT and just holding for BTC exposure. (Or hold BTC directly in self custody if you know how to do this).

You can also buy FileCoin directly, but the GreyScale trust will allow for larger scale institutional exposure, and for qualified investors in a trust structure. FIL is not likely to be put into an EFT any time soon, although if it does, the management fee will come down (especially if there is competition from other ETF providers). For me, I am like you, and so hold FIL directly as I don't want to pay holding fees.

[gib]

DOGE vs BTC gains in the past 5 years:

DOGE: 15,280%
BTC: 743.56%
ETH: 1,652.21%
BNB: 2,728.09%

https://coinranking.com/

Your point of posting this is what? To show that some alts can outperform BTC for periods of time? If so, yes, obviously they can. I have explained many times before, I could create an alt tomorrow, sell one coin to myself for double the price, and suddenly I have a 100% gain.

As investors we need to be forward-looking. And we also need to balance risk with likely reward. Anyone could try to pick an alt, NFT, shitcoin, meme etc which they hope will outperform BTC for a period of time. There will never be any shortage of people who create such coins in attempt to separate people from their Bitcoin. Most such "investors" over time, will fail to outperform BTC for obvious reasons - the extra risk, on average, is not compensated by the potentially higher return. And it is exactly this miscalculation risk which drives people to speculate on alts, much like how casinos separate gamblers from their money over time. And its also why investors chasing "penny stocks" and "day-trading" cannot outperform Buffet, who buys blue chips and HODLs. Yes, obviously, some alts at any point in time, among the potentially millions of alts which can exist, can outperform BTC for a period of time. However, being able to consistently pick such outperformers is virtually impossible for the vast vast majority of speculators. And this is why almost all of us, would be better off consistently stacking and holding Sats.

We have year of discussions on this now, and lessons are learned by some of those here every cycle, yet still some people still don't seem to get it and think they can consistently outperform the mighty BTC.

[obsidian]

Your point of posting this is what? To show that some alts can outperform BTC for periods of time? If so, yes, obviously they can. I have explained many times before, I could create an alt tomorrow, sell one coin to myself for double the price, and suddenly I have a 100% gain.

Doge has outperformed BTC from 2014-present - 10 years!
ETH has outperformed BTC from 2015-present - 9 years!

My point is your argument can be flipped on you. You're looking at a shorter time range where BTC has outperformed ETH and using this as evidence that BTC is a superior investment.

Then when I look at a longer time range of three cycles you ask what's the point? Here's a quote from you:

Indeed - almost any alt starts to underperform to BTC after more then one cycle (for obvious reasons).

Here is that quote revised with a valid statement:

Indeed - BTC starts to underperform almost any ALT after more than one cycle (for obvious reasons).

What is the obvious reason?

Bitcoin was the first blockchain in 2009. Sure, investors that bought it at 30 cents or $1 saw the most amazing return on investment - IF they held till now. But they were a few early adopters and some have long since sold their $1 position. Over time, the BTC changed hands. Some people bought BTC at $18,000 in 2017. Then it crashed down to $3,500 or less a few years later. BTC keeps changing hands, and now many new investors have to get in at a higher floor, where BTC is around $90,000. It's harder for that to 10x than a smaller market cap token. Sure, the alt coin might crash 99%. But some have stuck around, like Ethereum, Doge and BNB. Solana is a newcomer. It will have its own hurdles to cross at some point.

Look at Cardano for example. It's had dismal performance over the years. Yet, it is still up 2,450.53% since 2017. That's more than BTC even with Bitcoin now hovering around $90,000!

You're seduced by the big price tag BTC commands.

I agree though, for now, BTC is safer in bear markets for sure. Time will tell if this will be the case 16-24 years from now.

[SouJerz]

If you look at coin market cap.com and click 24 hour % change.  The top movers are all coins valued in the cents and maybe 1 dollar.   AKA bag holder central.  Everyone buying cheap coins in hope of the next bitcoin.  There is no next bitcoin only bitcoin.  Keep sticking satoshis!! can’t wait to read this forum in 10 years from now!

[obsidian]

This guy provides interesting insight into Ethereum.

Retail investors are bearish on ETH - for now. They want that Solana casino, with memes, cheap and supposedly fast transactions - even if it goes offline or transactions fail. They ignore the processing power and storage overhead that's required to validate on Solana.

Institutional investors want stable, reliable, and DEFI liquidity. They are happy with a 50% return on investment. They don't care for instant transactions, even though Ethereum is moving towards that with the ever-expanding L2s. Ethereum is criticized for the L2 roadmap when Bitcoin and Solana are moving towards that same roadmap - lol! Only Ethereum is quietly being expanded while retail investors FUD it 24/7.

Institutional investors have boardroom meetings where they have to present their investment case. That does not require instant transactions, as we have seen with Bitcoin. They also want to buy low, sell high. Ethereum has underperformed BTC the past 3 years, but not the past 5 years, yet it is still growing and there is demand for it. Are they going to jump into a higher price or lower price point for BTC and ETH?

There are plans to scale the L1 layer as well. Ethereum provides yield and the inflation is lower than Bitcoin and a lot lower than Solana! ETH even went deflationary again a few days ago.

I would love to see a much-hated Ethereum rally, only to see all the meltdowns - similar to the TDS tantrums we've all seen.

Also, note that January has been traditionally a good month for Ethereum. BTC could outperform into December. Let's see what happens.

[obsidian]

If you look at coin market cap.com and click 24 hour % change.  The top movers are all coins valued in the cents and maybe 1 dollar.   AKA bag holder central.  Everyone buying cheap coins in hope of the next bitcoin.  There is no next bitcoin only bitcoin.  Keep sticking satoshis!! can’t wait to read this forum in 10 years from now!

Click on 5 year change on the Coinranking site.

BTC has underperformed ETH, BNB, DOGE, ADA, TRX. That's 50% of the top ten cryptos if you exclude stablecoins.

Why are you looking at 24-hour cycles and not 5 or more years?! Here's a screenshot - look at the numbers!

https://coinranking.com/

[obsidian]

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/11/14/franklin-templeton-expands-410m-money-market-fund-to-ethereum-blockchain/

Franklin Templeton Expands $410M Money Market Fund to Ethereum Blockchain
Ethereum is by far the most popular blockchain for issuers of tokenized traditional assets with a current market cap of $1.6 billion.

- Franklin Templeton's OnChain U.S. Government Money Market Fund can now be traded on Ethereum.
- The fund is already available on several other blockchains, including most recently Base, Aptos, and Avalanche.
- Ethereum is by far the most popular pick among issuers, handling $1.6 billion worth of tokenized assets.

[SouJerz]

Click on 5 year change on the Coinranking site.

BTC has underperformed ETH, BNB, DOGE, ADA, TRX. That's 50% of the top ten cryptos if you exclude stablecoins.

Why are you looking at 24-hour cycles and not 5 or more years?! Here's a screenshot - look at the numbers!

https://coinranking.com/

lol oh man obsidian it’s ok you don’t have to convince us but you do have to convince yourself!!   I was looking at the past 24 hours to see where money is going and it’s all retail investors looking to become bag holders.

[SouJerz]

Bitcoin just shot to 89,000 and what does the average Joe do?  Buy a bunch of some alt coin worth Pennie’s and pray it’s the next Bitcoin.  Instead of buying Bitcoin the proven performer.

[gib]

Indeed - BTC starts to underperform almost any ALT after more than one cycle (for obvious reasons).

What is the obvious reason?

What is the obvious reason? It is because alts can be infinitely created, and hence "hot" for a shorter period, but infinitely diluted to zero over time due to infinite supply.

Eth, the biggest purported "alt" to BTC, is now down to BTC as follows:

3.5% on the day
14% over last 5 days
15% over last month
27% over last 6 months
36% YTD
38% over last year
43% last 2 years
47% last 3 years

I doubt very much it will reverse this trend in 2025, let alone reverse enough to catch back up to BTC.

Will there be an "alt" that outperforms BTC this cycle? Sure. Will there be alt investors that picked only the outperforming ones, and then purchased a significant amount at the right time, and then also sold at the right time, and avoided all the losing alts, such that overall they beat BTC? And did so consistently with various alt investments over time? Far less likely - although we of course all wish to think we could be such a person with our great altcoin investing skills.

[obsidian]

What is the obvious reason? It is because alts can be infinitely created, and hence "hot" for a shorter period, but infinitely diluted to zero over time due to infinite supply.

Eth, the biggest purported "alt" to BTC, is now down to BTC as follows:

3.5% on the day
14% over last 5 days
15% over last month
27% over last 6 months
36% YTD
38% over last year
43% last 2 years
47% last 3 years

I doubt very much it will reverse this trend in 2025, let alone reverse enough to catch back up to BTC.

Will there be an "alt" that outperforms BTC this cycle? Sure. Will there be alt investors that picked only the outperforming ones, and then purchased a significant amount at the right time, and then also sold at the right time, and avoided all the losing alts, such that overall they beat BTC? And did so consistently with various alt investments over time? Far less likely - although we of course all wish to think we could be such a person with our great altcoin investing skills.

You can thank Gensler for those gains. Because he did everything he could to undermine DEFI tokens. That might be about to change.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/14/gary-gensler-reviews-accomplishments-was-proud-to-serve-as-sec-chair.html

Gary Gensler says he was ‘proud to serve’ as SEC chair, defends his approach to crypto regulation

Gensler offered a full-throated defense of his approach to crypto.

Gensler repeated his assertion that while bitcoin is not a security, the SEC’s focus “has been on some of the 10,000 or so other digital assets, many of which courts have ruled were offered or sold as securities” and are therefore subject to the SEC’s purview.

[obsidian]

Bitcoin just shot to 89,000 and what does the average Joe do?  Buy a bunch of some alt coin worth Pennie’s and pray it’s the next Bitcoin.  Instead of buying Bitcoin the proven performer.

Do you blame them? Average Joe can put $1,000 in crypto - if that! So they buy Bitcoin? Wow, they can easily double that?! A $1,000 gain is nothing.

Likewise, Ethereum is also too expensive for Average Joe. Solana looks a little more attractive for them, or meme coins.

But what if they get lucky with some obscure, small market cap token that does a 100x? That's why they go to the Solana Casino!

$89,000 BTC is great for people like GIB who got in at $3,500. Less attractive for a new investor with small pockets.

I mined 4 ETH per month for an energy bill of $600. But, the rigs heated the house. Our energy bill was going to be $150-200 regardless. That means ETH at $3,000 is still a 26x to 30x for me. I deducted all the hardware and electrical to cancel out the mining income over multiple years. Any tax I pay now will be capital gains tax. Crypto miners have to pay income tax on crypto they earn and the price is determined when it hits your wallet. If the crypto then goes up in value from there and you sell you have to pay another capital gains tax.

[obsidian]

lol oh man obsidian it’s ok you don’t have to convince us but you do have to convince yourself!!   I was looking at the past 24 hours to see where money is going and it’s all retail investors looking to become bag holders.

The 24-hour chart can change at any time. Earlier in the year ETH was up 20% in 24 hours. Recently Doge was up 40%. Yeah, it's nice to see. Everybody has their selling price. Some like Saylor cannot sell at all. If he sold 1 BTC it would fuck his whole narrative. So the only way he makes money is by peddling his stock and then using the profits there to finance his lifestyle. All the BTC he has is off-limits to him. If he sold it would seriously crash the BTC price. Perhaps he has some secret BTC wallets that allow him to cash out. But he would be petrified if the public found out about it.

[gib]

The 24-hour chart can change at any time. Earlier in the year ETH was up 20% in 24 hours. Recently Doge was up 40%. Yeah, it's nice to see. Everybody has their selling price. Some like Saylor cannot sell at all. If he sold 1 BTC it would fuck his whole narrative. So the only way he makes money is by peddling his stock and then using the profits there to finance his lifestyle. All the BTC he has is off-limits to him. If he sold it would seriously crash the BTC price. Perhaps he has some secret BTC wallets that allow him to cash out. But he would be petrified if the public found out about it.

He doesn't need to sell, nor should any Bitcoiner. No #1 principle - Never, ever, let go of your BTC. Hodl, stack, and by all means borrow against it for declining fiat if you need some cash. But never sell it. Same principle those who have built successful property empires - you borrow, build, hold the underlying assets and leverage to get more. But you never sell the crown jewel's.

[gib]

Do you blame them? Average Joe can put $1,000 in crypto - if that! So they buy Bitcoin? Wow, they can easily double that?! A $1,000 gain is nothing.

Likewise, Ethereum is also too expensive for Average Joe. Solana looks a little more attractive for them, or meme coins.

But what if they get lucky with some obscure, small market cap token that does a 100x? That's why they go to the Solana Casino!

$89,000 BTC is great for people like GIB who got in at $3,500. Less attractive for a new investor with small pockets.

Exactly right. Which is why I have tried so so hard to educate and pass this message on here. All anyone had to do from the time this thread started was buy BTC regularly, stack, and chill.

The guy with $1000 trying to chase alts, over a cycle might well go from 1000, to 1300, to 1100, to 1800, to 900, to 1300, to 2100, to 1700, to 1900, to 1200, and end at 800. After countless trades, essentially trading non-sense, all of which is in the short term dilutive of the value that would have flowed into BTC, had he just stuck with the plan and been aligned with Bitcoiners, instead of being mislead by shitcoiners. Meanwhile, the Bitcoiner who has been faithfully and methodically stacking and hodling wins...

For anyone thinking BTC is "expensive" I would say that it has always seemed "expensive" for anyone who bought it. This is always the way it is with any fast emerging asset.

Remember at the beginning of this thread, I was encouraging people just to get to 1BTC, and how important this would be. Some laughed at this. Now I am encouraging people just to get to 0.1 BTC. And of course in time, the aspiration for many may be 0.001 BTC. For those struggling on low incomes, all around the world (not just on GetBig), I really urge just to put whatever you can into BTC, and use it as a long term savings technology.

We still have BTC to go up around 10x to match gold's market cap (it just flippened silver's market cap last week), and it will flip gold for sure, in time, for obvious reasons.

[gib]

I mined 4 ETH per month for an energy bill of $600. But, the rigs heated the house. Our energy bill was going to be $150-200 regardless. That means ETH at $3,000 is still a 26x to 30x for me. I deducted all the hardware and electrical to cancel out the mining income over multiple years. Any tax I pay now will be capital gains tax.

That is pretty cool. Curious, why did you mine ETH and not BTC?

Were the rigs loud?

Why pay tax? How would anyone know that you mined ETH? (Or that you sold it, unless you sold it on a KYC regulated exchange)?

[Griffith]

You can thank Gensler for those gains. Because he did everything he could to undermine DEFI tokens. That might be about to change.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/14/gary-gensler-reviews-accomplishments-was-proud-to-serve-as-sec-chair.html

Gary Gensler says he was ‘proud to serve’ as SEC chair, defends his approach to crypto regulation

Gensler offered a full-throated defense of his approach to crypto.

Gensler repeated his assertion that while bitcoin is not a security, the SEC’s focus “has been on some of the 10,000 or so other digital assets, many of which courts have ruled were offered or sold as securities” and are therefore subject to the SEC’s purview.

Good to see this cockroach has been removed.

Can only be good for DEFI now.

[gib]

Good to see this cockroach has been removed.

Can only be good for DEFI now.

Well remember, his job is to enforce the law, not make the law. There are good reasons why the law regulates public securities (and indeed such regulation is the foundation on which American business success has been built on). With securities regulation, we can invest in companies which we know meet certain financial reporting standards, comply with specified regulations, etc. This enables us to value companies with confidence, lend to companies in confidence, and invest in the shares of such companies with confidence. This cannot be said for companies who issue "crypto tokens" in an attempt to avoid existing regulations, and basically take investor money via fraud.

Gensler is not opposed to the concept of defi in itself. But he does enforce the law against illegally issued and non-compliant securities, as he should.

[Andy Griffin]

Good to see this cockroach has been removed.

Can only be good for DEFI now.

Amen.

Probably doesn't even lift.

[SouJerz]

Do you blame them? Average Joe can put $1,000 in crypto - if that! So they buy Bitcoin? Wow, they can easily double that?! A $1,000 gain is nothing.

Likewise, Ethereum is also too expensive for Average Joe. Solana looks a little more attractive for them, or meme coins.

But what if they get lucky with some obscure, small market cap token that does a 100x? That's why they go to the Solana Casino!

$89,000 BTC is great for people like GIB who got in at $3,500. Less attractive for a new investor with small pockets.

I mined 4 ETH per month for an energy bill of $600. But, the rigs heated the house. Our energy bill was going to be $150-200 regardless. That means ETH at $3,000 is still a 26x to 30x for me. I deducted all the hardware and electrical to cancel out the mining income over multiple years. Any tax I pay now will be capital gains tax. Crypto miners have to pay income tax on crypto they earn and the price is determined when it hits your wallet. If the crypto then goes up in value from there and you sell you have to pay another capital gains tax.

Some gamble and some invest.   Godspeed