Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[gib]

.

In 2011 I walked through the CBD with 5kg of silver bars in my backpack. Downtown. Some 70s built building with dodgy entrance. They drilled each bar to test. Despite people quoting physical price was higher they offered spot.

Then I had to walk back through the CBD to a bank with 45k cash in my backpack.

Plebs holding physical I honestly think they are BS talkers who really have $500 worth. Doing what I did increased my risk and anxiety and I bought over spot and sold at spot so it was worse than a paper trade.

Physical metals is BS for plebs dude. paper positions or buy miners.

Lol, I can sympathize. I did the same with 1 kilo of gold, and 4 kilos of silver. Gets pretty heavy, and you also get a bit paranoid you might be robbed, or that you might lose it or drop it somehow. (It does feel nice to hold when you get it home though huh?)

[GymnJuice]

Well if you are dealing with "alts", then in my view, to some extent, almost all are scams to some degree. If you buy BTC via a regulated exchange, and store on a cold wallet you should be fine. If you are really not technical, and are prone to responding to fishing and romance scams etc, just buy the Bitcoin ETF - IBIT, from blackrock. You can buy it like you do any other stock, and you then have 1:1 exposure to Bitcoin that way (with them doing all the custody, and protection).

The bitcoin ETF is what I do. IBIT has an expense ratio of 0.25% which is higher than the other ETF that I own which are considerably less at 0.03%. Hopefully there will be more competition for the bitcoin ETFs and their expense ratios will come down in the future.

[obsidian]

[obsidian]

Interesting it takes that long. I use accounts with various banks in Asia - it takes usually 30 mins to receive cash from a number of the exchanges I have account with.

Chaos - you can of course also "cash out" immediately via a peer to peer transaction, which I have done a few times - ie a friend gives you cash "in hand" and you transfer them BTC. Also, I many parts of the world there are OTC shops, where you can simply walk in, transfer BTC to their wallet and they give you cash immediately once the transaction can be seen on the blockchain (usually 20-30 mins), or vice versa - ie you give them cash and they transfer you BTC. And you can of course simply buy/sell anything you want with Bitcoin provided another person is willing to accept BTC (or just pay with any credit card, which is backed by BTC but on the front end converts to fiat currency if that is what the seller still wants as payment).

Right now, your concern should not be "how can you cash out of BTC". That part is easy, and will become increasingly easy as people are prepared to exchange every increasing amounts worthless fiat currency for BTC which is perfectly and programatically scarce. Rather, your concern, every single day, should be, how much cash can can I get into BTC.

Are you referring to crypto exchanges? You’re holding BTC, so which crypto did you cash out?

For me, when I withdraw from a crypto exchange to my bank, the funds usually take about 24 hours before they’re fully usable. However, the transaction often appears as “incoming” on the bank side within about 30 minutes.

[obsidian]

How many scammers do you run into dealing with this stuff?

I don’t, really. I mined ETH and bought crypto gradually over the years, and I only interact with exchanges occasionally. I’ve only sold around 2% of my portfolio. I have not sold any ETH.

If we go into another bear market, I’ll be bag-holding again, I guess. Flexacon seems to have a lot of “contempt” for that. The irony is that the dollar — and every fiat currency — is the ultimate shitcoin. But we still need fiat for everyday life. Honestly, plenty of crypto projects have better tokenomics in terms of supply and inflation.

I did have a few hundred dollars worth of crypto stolen from a software wallet, but so far nothing from exchanges (knock on wood).

That said, I actually tell most people to stay away from crypto. When the market pumps, I suddenly get calls from people asking what tokens to buy — which is usually the worst possible time to jump in. And they never ask about Bitcoin or Ethereum or other established projects; it’s always some random coin or just “crypto” in general. I’d rather warn them than watch them lose money.

[Griffith]

I don’t, really. I mined ETH and bought crypto gradually over the years, and I only interact with exchanges occasionally. I’ve only sold around 2% of my portfolio. I have not sold any ETH.

If we go into another bear market, I’ll be bag-holding again, I guess. Flexacon seems to have a lot of “contempt” for that. The irony is that the dollar — and every fiat currency — is the ultimate shitcoin. But we still need fiat for everyday life. Honestly, plenty of crypto projects have better tokenomics in terms of supply and inflation.

I did have a few hundred dollars worth of crypto stolen from a software wallet, but so far nothing from exchanges (knock on wood).

That said, I actually tell most people to stay away from crypto. When the market pumps, I suddenly get calls from people asking what tokens to buy — which is usually the worst possible time to jump in. And they never ask about Bitcoin or Ethereum or other established projects; it’s always some random coin or just “crypto” in general. I’d rather warn them than watch them lose money.

In the order books there's at least some huge buy orders for ETH stacked at 3450.

Whether it holds or gets pulled, we'll see.

Considering the huge pump from 1400 a few months back, a dip to these levels or even lower is not unusual.

I believe the bull run is still intact.

[obsidian]

In the order books there's at least some huge buy orders for ETH stacked at 3450.

Whether it holds or gets pulled, we'll see.

Considering the huge pump from 1400 a few months back, a dip to these levels or even lower is not unusual.

I believe the bull run is still intact.

Look at what ETH did 8 years ago in 2017. That's based on the 4 year cycle narrative. I am thinking people are waiting for BTC to dip below $100k. ETH could go below $3k again — even if it would be extremely undervalued relative to BTC. Keep in mind that ETH was $4.8k when BTC was $68k. ETH's fundamentals are way better than Bitcoin's. I feel like the ratio will reset at some point. But it could take years.

[gib]

Are you referring to crypto exchanges? You’re holding BTC, so which crypto did you cash out?

For me, when I withdraw from a crypto exchange to my bank, the funds usually take about 24 hours before they’re fully usable. However, the transaction often appears as “incoming” on the bank side within about 30 minutes.

I always buy/sell a small amount of BTC with any new exchange and / or bank I set up, just to test the rails and make sure all is in order.

It sounds like in your case the exchanges are fast, but the bank takes time to clear? In Asia it’s super fast. I’ve also done a lot of peer to peer buys in the early days. Again the bank payment there is instant, and the BTC usually took 30 mins or so to arrive (held in escrow and released once the seller confirms cash received in bank account).

[obsidian]

Zcash recently surged past $700 and is still up more than 14x over the past three months. It’s a fork of Bitcoin with the same finite supply of 21 million coins. The current inflation rate is about 4%, which will halve to 2% in 2028, then continue to 1%, 0.5%, and so on with each halving.

Zcash also includes optional privacy features that Bitcoin lacks and produces a new block every 75 seconds, compared to Bitcoin’s 10-minute block time.

Worth noting — when Zcash launched in 2016, it was worth more than Bitcoin.
If it were to reprice to just one-tenth of Bitcoin’s value, ZEC would exceed $10,000.

[Grape Ape]

Zcash recently surged past $700 and is still up more than 14x over the past three months. It’s a fork of Bitcoin with the same finite supply of 21 million coins. The current inflation rate is about 4%, which will halve to 2% in 2028, then continue to 1%, 0.5%, and so on with each halving.

Zcash also includes optional privacy features that Bitcoin lacks and produces a new block every 75 seconds, compared to Bitcoin’s 10-minute block time.

Worth noting — when Zcash launched in 2016, it was worth more than Bitcoin.
If it were to reprice to just one-tenth of Bitcoin’s value, ZEC would exceed $10,000.

Very interesting

[Lartinos]

They found out who Satoshi is.

https://www.facebook.com/share/16GB3kAA6v/?mibextid=wwXIfr

[obsidian]

They found out who Satoshi is.

https://www.facebook.com/share/16GB3kAA6v/?mibextid=wwXIfr

LMAO!

[FitnessFrenzy]

Can someone explain why Monero is going up so much right now?

[Flexacon]

Can someone explain why Monero is going up so much right now?

Privacy coins like Monero are up as a lot of OG bitcoin holders are hedging due to bitcoin becoming more of a tradfi coin

[Mayday]

Lol, I can sympathize. I did the same with 1 kilo of gold, and 4 kilos of silver. Gets pretty heavy, and you also get a bit paranoid you might be robbed, or that you might lose it or drop it somehow. (It does feel nice to hold when you get it home though huh?)

I used to look at it and hold it all the time. Wasn't pretty like in the movies where it's all polished, but it was very cool.

Meanwhile my targets are still being epic after epic. Nobody has been closer than me. 156k is next.

the top will be end of 2026 either 176k or 241k but I'd say 241k is what I'd pick of the 2.

[gib]

Flex / Obsidian - what's your end of year BTC target?

I have lowered my expectations somewhat, but now thinking in the 130-140K range.

[gib]

One more thing - All my Eth is unstaked. I go through an quarterly exercise looking at my entire portfolio and any edges to maximize revenue. So, with regard to ETH, just looking at possibly of staking - seems staking yield is less than 2% pa now. Am I correct?

[Flexacon]

Flex / Obsidian - what's your end of year BTC target?

I have lowered my expectations somewhat, but now thinking in the 130-140K range.

I had low expectations even a few months back. Still sticking to a high of 145k, so my end of year price would be in a similar range to yours.

Around 145k for late Q4/Jan 2026.

Stock market could continue running hard into late 2026, the big unknown is if BTC will continue running with it or not.

[gib]

I had low expectations even a few months back. Still sticking to a high of 145k, so my end of year price would be in a similar range to yours.

Here are 3 possible positive catalysts:

1. US Govt shutdown ends
2. Fed does another 25 bps reduction before end of year.
3. We see inflows very late Dec early Jan, on fund managers etc positioning / reallocating / placing their bets for the year ahead.

[Flexacon]

Here are 3 possible positive catalysts:

1. US Govt shutdown ends
2. Fed does another 25 bps reduction before end of year.
3. We see inflows very late Dec early Jan, on fund managers etc positioning / reallocating / placing their bets for the year ahead.

Yes, QT also ends Dec 1st, but I wouldn't actually mind if bitcoin price action stays muted and even if 126k was the high for the year.

Q1-Q2 may be rough for bitcoin next year, but Trump will eventually have his guy as the new FED chair. He'll want everything pumping for mid-terms and he's already mentioned stimulus checks. Looser monetary policy is where Bitcoin and crypto thrive and we may get that at some point next year.

So a little short term pain/lack of blow off top would set things up nicely for the next "cycle"

[obsidian]

Flex / Obsidian - what's your end of year BTC target?

I have lowered my expectations somewhat, but now thinking in the 130-140K range.

It could definitely reach that range. I’m not great at price predictions, lol! But I agree that we should expect weaker returns across most crypto assets for the rest of the year. I expected ETH would be much higher by now. The signs were there, though, because there are still too many holders eager to offload whenever it touches the $4–5K range.

Zcash might surprise though. I think it’s significantly undervalued relative to BTC and most other tokens. I mined ZEC and still hold some, and even if it were to hit $10,000, I’d still consider it undervalued compared to Bitcoin. I'm not saying ZEC to $10k by January 2026, but it could go there eventually.

Right now, the average cost to mine 1 BTC is about $118,496, while the market price sits around $105,823. For Bitcoin to remain sustainable, its average price needs to more than double after each halving just to keep miner income steady. Their energy and hardware expenses keep rising with inflation, while block rewards are cut in half every four years. Anyone who’s completely confident in Bitcoin’s long-term success is also, by extension, relying entirely on miners staying solvent and motivated to keep the network alive.

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost

[obsidian]

One more thing - All my Eth is unstaked. I go through an quarterly exercise looking at my entire portfolio and any edges to maximize revenue. So, with regard to ETH, just looking at possibly of staking - seems staking yield is less than 2% pa now. Am I correct?

I’ve had some ETH unstaked for over a year now, but it never quite reached the price target where I planned to sell. I know I’ve joked about Flexacon’s “bag holding” argument before, but there’s some truth to it — sometimes selling can be smart if you’ve got the discipline to buy back lower. The tricky part is that it’s easy for that cash to never make it back into the market. It’s happened to plenty of people.

Take Vince G., for example — he sold his Bitcoin over a decade ago when it was worth a fraction of today’s price. I doubt he ever rebuilt that same stack. ETH still has huge long-term potential, but as always, nothing is ever guaranteed — not for Bitcoin, and not for Ethereum either.

[gib]

Eth valued against BTC, over time...

[gib]

I of course take no delight in the continued decline and pain in "alts", but I do have to say both "I told you so" and "its not too late".

If we could all live in a magical world, where all assets, copies, and scams etc rose infinitely, that would be amazing. But it's not reality. Economic energy is scarce and finite. And it is best stored in scarce and finite assets. We have gold in the physical world. BTC in the digital world which functions even better. And it is vital that we stay away from any BTC affinity scam, any "alt", any pretend "we are the next BTC coin", any false narrative, any "this other one is cheaper than BTC", etc.

Reality is that if we all converge on a single digital store of value, we all win. And the other way, if we are divided we fall. Tom Lee took some quick money, tricked a few"speculators, compromised himself, and made a fool out of himself with his "Eth Treasury company". I pointed out how this would end up only a few months ago...

Will Eth actually hit the $500-$600 range that it I value it on a discounted cashflow analysis? Possibly - what we do know is that it will at least trend in that direction over time. But how quickly, and how lumpy, no one can be sure.

[MuscleBuff]

Do you think the bull is over?