Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[gib]

Never sell your bitcoin.

Never borrow against your BTC unless you can manage the leverage.

It's not hard. Every cycle, lessons are learned...

[Mayday]

How is the rotation that everyone used the exact same timing for treating everyone?

[gib]

How is the rotation that everyone used the exact same timing for treating everyone?

For me, pretty good. Provides an opportunity for cheaper DCA BTC stacking.

[obsidian]

The ETH Exchange Reserves just dropped by 2 million in the past 5 days! Wonder who bought that much?!

The total on the exchanges now is at 13.62 million ETH.

https://cryptoquant.com/asset/eth/chart/exchange-flows/exchange-reserve?exchange=all_exchange&window=DAY&sma=0&ema=0&priceScale=log&metricScale=linear&chartStyle=line

The BTC reserves also dropped by 600,000! It's now at 1.8 million BTC.

https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/exchange-flows/exchange-reserve?exchange=all_exchange&window=DAY&sma=0&ema=0&priceScale=log&metricScale=linear&chartStyle=line

ETH needs to drop another 2.8 million to match BTC's token scarcity, since there's about 6 ETH for every 1 BTC. 1.8 x 6 = 10.8

[obsidian]

Fully agree - that is what I have always been saying all along. I would add further, that they will be, over time, be valued based on the revenue they bring in (and expected future revenue) - eg a standard DCF analysis just as you apply to any stock to value it. Based on this, I calculated a fair value of Eth to ve currently in the 500-600 USD range, and concluded that whilst almost all even "such" revenue earning projects are vastly overvalued, ChainLink and Uniswap look interesting at a certain price point, and Filecoin already is.

As opposed to BTC, whose entire use case itself, is the hedge for debasement of money, and which should start to pump as soon as liquidity is put back into the system.

Every cycle a lesson is learned. But every new cycle, people come along who think they know better...

The dollar constantly loses value, so attaching a fixed price to anything is meaningless. Look at basic items like Big Macs and French Fries — their prices keep climbing. In fact, the cost has surged several hundred percent in just a few years.

https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/mcdonalds-menu-price-deals-nldgfrhtb

Why Americans can’t afford McDonald’s any more
As Trump uses the chain as a political backdrop, the country’s quintessential cheap meal has started to feel like a splurge

I’m not valuing ETH using DCF models or PE ratios. I hold ETH for the same reason many people hold BTC: because it’s a narrative asset — a special snowflake, a meme, a digital pet rock. And I’m far from alone. You can apply whatever theoretical framework you want to ETH, but ultimately the only thing that matters is how investors choose to treat it.

From that perspective, ETH and many altcoins are severely undervalued relative to BTC. If you focus purely on tokenomics and scarcity, BTC’s current position doesn’t make sense. There are about 6 ETH for every 1 BTC, around 7 BNB for every 1 BTC, and less than 1 ZEC for every 1 BTC. If all of them shared the same market cap, those ratios would reflect their prices.

Someone could argue that Bitcoin deserves a premium as the first blockchain — fair enough. But if scarcity is such a major factor, why is BTC currently worth roughly 158x more than ZEC when ZEC has fewer coins in circulation and also offers optional privacy? That discrepancy alone shows that narrative and investor preference matter far more than pure supply numbers.

ZEC originated out of Israel. I would not bet against the "Tribe"!

[obsidian]

And now, the reality... - which is why you can see now, I corrected the initial, over-optimistic post...

https://www.scmp.com/tech/blockchain/article/3333429/chinese-crypto-founders-shelve-us500-million-ether-digital-asset-treasury-project

It would have been a great opportunity to enter at the lower levels — it was essentially a gift. But the people managing this launch missed that window. They’ll likely move forward only once ETH is already much higher. Some investors are simply more comfortable paying a premium after an asset has “proven itself.”

Arthur Hayes is a good example. He openly says he won’t buy at the bottom because at that stage he isn’t sure the asset won’t go to zero. He waits for confirmation, buys once momentum is clear, and then sells after taking profit. I read that he didn’t buy BTC when it bottomed around $16k in 2022; he started accumulating closer to $30k and has probably traded around that position a few times since. He’s not a true believer — he’s a momentum trader, and he sticks to that strategy.

[Mayday]

For me, pretty good. Provides an opportunity for cheaper DCA BTC stacking.

Same here.

A bear market will be a fantastic opportunity to buy. ETH. Imagine missing the top again on alts, oh man.

[Griffith]

Europe’s Largest Asset Manager Launches Tokenized Fund on Ethereum

Amundi has launched Europe’s first tokenized share of a money market fund, making it available through both traditional and blockchain-based distribution, according to an announcement on Thursday.

The fund uses distributed ledger technology and the public Ethereum blockchain “to ensure transparent record-keeping of fund units and traceability of transactions,” technology partner CACEIS stated.

CACEIS is providing the tokenization infrastructure and a digital platform for subscriptions and redemptions. The first transaction was recorded on November 4 on the Ethereum network.

Europe’s €2.2T Asset Manager Amundi is the region’s leading asset manager and one of the tenth largest globally, with around 2.2 trillion euros in assets under management. It serves 100 million clients, including individuals, institutions, and corporates, and employs 5,700 professionals across 35 countries.

The tokenization initiative on Ethereum represents Amundi’s move toward digital asset distribution, positioning the firm at the forefront of blockchain adoption in traditional asset management.

“The tokenization of assets is a transformation set to accelerate in the coming years around the world. This first initiative on a money market fund demonstrates our expertise and the robustness of our methodology in covering concrete use cases,” said Jean-Jacques Barbéris, Head of Institutional and Corporate Clients, at Amundi.

The move is a significant development for Ethereum, solidifying its position as the industry leader in tokenizing real-world assets.

https://cryptopotato.com/europes-largest-asset-manager-launches-tokenized-fund-on-ethereum/

[SouJerz]

Keep stacking satoshis!!!!!

[Griffith]

Ethereum successfully completed its Fusaka upgrade.

[obsidian]

The US PMI has been depressed for 37 months now. That's the longest period since it's been tracked. Interesting that the 2017/18 and 2021 crypto cycle peaks coincided with the PMI peaks. Crypto is worldwide but it is still influenced by what goes on in the US. Most influencers have unilaterally decided the bear market is upon us. QT is ending, interest rates will be lowered, hopefully the PMI starts trending up. Most alts never had a bull run since 2021. Ethereum has not experienced even an inflation adjusted 2021 ATH. Time will tell, but I hope these influencers all have to FOMO buy back in at higher levels. Fuck Em!



https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JhkJkbxB/?symbol=ECONOMICS%3AUSBCOI

[MuscleBuff]

150K BTC when 

[obsidian]

Keep stacking satoshis!!!!!

Bitcoin might be in trouble. Block rewards halve every four years, and transaction fees effectively do the same because so many people just HODL and barely move their coins. Something has to give. Since 2021, Bitcoin’s price hasn’t risen nearly enough to offset the shrinking block rewards.

On top of that, about 90% of BTC ASIC miners are manufactured in China, and Bitcoin’s development pace is notoriously slow. Then there’s the looming quantum-computing question: what happens to Satoshi’s million BTC if quantum computers become powerful enough to break old keys? Would the community and developers choose to freeze those early wallets? That would go directly against Bitcoin’s core principles of property rights and neutrality.

Justin Drake discusses these points in more detail here.

[obsidian]

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tom-lee-claims-ethereum-hit-115214887.html

Tom Lee Claims Ethereum Will Hit $62,000 in Next Few Months, Ramps up Bitcoin Call to $250,000

Bitmine and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee ignited fresh debate in the crypto market this week after predicting that Ethereum could surge to $62,000 in the coming months, a call he made during a keynote address at Binance Blockchain Week.

Lee, a long-time crypto bull, compared Ethereum’s current moment to a pivotal point in U.S. financial history.

Bullish Ethereum Prediction
Speaking on stage, Lee said Ethereum is positioned at the center of a structural transformation driven by real-world asset tokenization.

“Ethereum this year is having its 1971 moment,” Lee said.

He argued that 2025 will mirror that inflection point, this time powered by blockchain rails.

“In 2025, we’re tokenizing everything. It’s not just the dollar… it’s stocks, bonds, real estate, and Wall Street is again going to take advantage of that and create products onto a smart contract platform,” he told the audience.

Lee noted that Ethereum has remained range-bound for five years but has now “begun to break out,” prompting his firm to shift deeper into Ether exposure.

“Ethereum at $3,000 is grossly undervalued,” he said.

“If Ethereum returns to its eight-year average ratio against Bitcoin, that’s $12,000. But if it gets to 0.25 relative to Bitcoin, that’s $62,000,” Lee concluded.

[Flexacon]

150K BTC when 

Probably 2027 unless the FED under Jerome Powell does something unexpected like a 100 basis points cut (very unlikely)

[MuscleBuff]

Probably 2027 unless the FED under Jerome Powell does something unexpected like a 100 basis points cut (very unlikely)

 

[Flexacon]

It's good. Buy big in May/June/July 2026 around $50K - $60K and it should be an easy x4 by 2028/29

[MuscleBuff]

It's good. Buy big in May/June/July 2026 around $50K - $60K and it should be an easy x4 by 2028/29

That also implies it's best to sell now 

[Griffith]

Probably 2027 unless the FED under Jerome Powell does something unexpected like a 100 basis points cut (very unlikely)

Jerome Powell leaving, replaced by Trump appointee (pro-crypto, large rate cuts).

So 2026 will have rate cuts.

Also chance for a rate cut in December, but we'll see.

The FED has also ended quantitative tightening (from 2022) this December.

Increased liquidity is generally good for stocks and crypto.

[Griffith]

There's a new huge sell wall on ETH at 5090 at 15.4k.

Probably a spoof order though, I've been watching the order books for some time and never seen such a large sell wall, so it's worth noting.

Before that the largest sell wall was at 5000 at just over 6k, which has remained consistent for many months and is still there.

[Flexacon]

That also implies it's best to sell now 

Probably not cos BTC might go to 100k first

[Slapper]

Good times ahead: Powell announces rate cuts -> Trump replaces Powell -> Ukraine/Russia war ends -> Trade deal with China is signed.

And then an explosive wave up in everything.

Don't mistake what is happening right now (tax season selling) for a bear market. A LOT of ETF retail clients got busted long in July thinking that the price of BTC was going to do a 2019-style explosive wave 5 culminating in late December. They are selling now to capture the capital gains loss.   

Hold tight. This is what separates the men from the boys.

[Griffith]

Good times ahead: Powell announces rate cuts -> Trump replaces Powell -> Ukraine/Russia war ends -> Trade deal with China is signed.

And then an explosive wave up in everything.

Don't mistake what is happening right now (tax season selling) for a bear market. A LOT of ETF retail clients got busted long in July thinking that the price of BTC was going to do a 2019-style explosive wave 5 culminating in late December. They are selling now to capture the capital gains loss.   

Hold tight. This is what separates the men from the boys.

Exactly.

[MuscleBuff]

Probably not cos BTC might go to 100k first

What is your sell target price? 100k?

[Flexacon]

Jerome Powell leaving, replaced by Trump appointee (pro-crypto, large rate cuts).

So 2026 will have rate cuts.

Also chance for a rate cut in December, but we'll see.

The FED has also ended quantitative tightening (from 2022) this December.

Increased liquidity is generally good for stocks and crypto.

Yeah there will be a 25 bps cut in December, but Powell isn't cutting quick enough for it to benefit crypto. Even if they cut 25 bps after the next 4 meetings it's still too slow.

The Trump backed Fed chair comes in in May so no real relief there until May/June.

QT may have ended, but there is always a lag. It can potentially be several months.

Also the government shutdown nonsense wasn't actually addressed. It was just delayed until the end of Jan 2026. 

Next few months aren't looking particularly bullish, but that's not necessarily a bad thing as the bullish pa structure bitcoin was following broke down last month. It needs time to form a new base before price moves up again