Author Topic: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!  (Read 1986873 times)

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #12800 on: February 21, 2026, 03:23:19 PM »
BTC hashrate rises over time. The reasons for this should be obvious, but basically the incentives and the difficulty adjustment make this inevitable over time. I have explained to you before (and others) - you can go on and on trying to delay buying BTC because of theoretical risks, or you can just buy and hodl and thrive. These concerns, doubts and fears etc about BTC (and indeed any novel technology) are what provides you with the opportunity. Also, ask yourself, always in cases like this, if you are simply fooling yourself by thinking you know of a risk that has not already been priced into the market. (If anything, such risks are overblown, and overbaked into the price - quantum FUD being just the latest).

ETH has potential (just not at this current price, in my view). I will buy it in the $200-$500 range, if the price ever adjusts to that level. I believe that over time, the market always adjusts to fair value - so, I will wait. This has been the key to my success in the past.
Hashrate rising over time isn’t inevitable — it’s conditional on miner economics, price, energy costs, and regulatory environment. Difficulty adjustment preserves liveness, not a growing security budget.

And “the market priced this in” is unfalsifiable. Markets routinely underprice long-horizon structural risks until they become acute. There’s no possible outcome that can disprove it:

If the price goes up >>> “See? The risk was priced in.”
If the price goes down >>> “See? The risk materialized, so the market was right to price it in.”

Regarding quantum FUD:

https://forklog.com/en/bitcoin-developer-warns-of-quantum-threat-from-intelligence-agencies/

Bitcoin Developer Warns of Quantum Threat from Intelligence Agencies
Bitcoin unprepared for quantum computer threats, warns developer.

20.02.2026 ForkLog

The first cryptocurrency is unprepared for a future where government agencies, using ultra-fast quantum computers, could crack its cryptography. This view was shared by developer Hunter Beest at the ETHDenver conference.

“Today, we are completely unprepared for the consequences. It’s a multidimensional problem, and you only realize its true scale when you start to delve into it,” he said.

According to Beest, the main players in the race are not tech giants but “spies”—the NSA and the Chinese military. Quantum computers, costing billions of dollars, are useful not only for stealing bitcoins. They can crack RSA—a widely used encryption standard, granting access to other countries’ classified data.

The problem is that the new technology is not yet capable of solving practical tasks, which hinders convincing many developers of the seriousness of the threat, the expert emphasized.

In December, one of the key Bitcoin Core contributors, Luke Dashjr, stated:

“The quantum threat is not real. Bitcoin has far more serious problems.”

In February, BIP 360 was included in Bitcoin’s codebase. Developers are actively working on this proposal.

🚨 BITCOIN QUANTUM UPDATE:

Developers advanced BIP-360, laying groundwork for post-quantum protection.

The proposal removes a Taproot key-path feature that could expose public keys to future quantum attacks.

Not activated yet but the defense planning has begun.

Bitcoin is… pic.twitter.com/qEXapNeFZT

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) February 16, 2026

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #12801 on: February 21, 2026, 06:56:46 PM »
2026 forecasts from the leaders of shittiest historic record of forecasting.
JPMorgan 170k
Grayscale 150k-240k
Bitwise 150k
Goldman Sachs  200k
Citibank 143k
Standard Chartered  180k

Check the alt season size comparison. Either send ETH to Jesus for forgiveness or tape yourself in bubble wrap to cope with another missed cycle in 2029.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #12802 on: February 22, 2026, 08:32:12 PM »
It's time for BTC.D to drop a lot lower. It's just too high. 30% or lower will be more healthy for the crypto ecosystem.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JhkJkbxB/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D

The 12-month BTC.D chart below indicates a long-term trend of lower lows and lower highs.


SouJerz

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #12803 on: March 06, 2026, 01:07:16 PM »
Keep stacking satoshis

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #12804 on: March 10, 2026, 04:03:06 PM »
I'll show this one now given we are here.

I ran a 10yr Gold cycle for years.  My original top timing was Sep 2026 but as time progressed, this became a far better fit.

We have the event and Gold isn't at ATH. Something to ponder. Id also ponder oil just got wrecked to the downside after longing to 120. Why isn't it at ATH?

What I'm expecting is more tariff action to suddenly pop up again. With tariffs coming back into play, volumes get ripped out which puts downward pressure on commodities. I think the smackdown on oil is the market thinking along the lines of what I am. You wouldn't want to be massively long and then Trump says 60% tariffs......

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #12805 on: March 12, 2026, 12:45:54 PM »
It's time for BTC.D to drop a lot lower. It's just too high. 30% or lower will be more healthy for the crypto ecosystem.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JhkJkbxB/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D

The 12-month BTC.D chart below indicates a long-term trend of lower lows and lower highs.



Good theory - but there's Bitcoin and there's "Crypto". And Bitcoin is 100% of Bitcoin, and so 100% dominant against Bitcoin. There is no real "alt" to BTC, which is a misunderstanding and the incorrect premise these types of "BTC dominance" charts were originally based on. It's like saying BTC is "too dominant to frogs" - does not really make sense to try to correlate to entirely different things, pretending somehow that they are part of the same group of things you are trying to measure.

For more relevant would be to look at BTC dominance to other major asset classes  - gold, equities, total fiat currency supply, global real estate, etc.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #12806 on: March 12, 2026, 03:49:32 PM »
Good theory - but there's Bitcoin and there's "Crypto". And Bitcoin is 100% of Bitcoin, and so 100% dominant against Bitcoin. There is no real "alt" to BTC, which is a misunderstanding and the incorrect premise these types of "BTC dominance" charts were originally based on. It's like saying BTC is "too dominant to frogs" - does not really make sense to try to correlate to entirely different things, pretending somehow that they are part of the same group of things you are trying to measure.

For more relevant would be to look at BTC dominance to other major asset classes  - gold, equities, total fiat currency supply, global real estate, etc.
Nice story,  but BTC.D needs to drop. And not against stablecoins, but against ETH. It is very overvalued vs ETH which is undervalued. I hope it drops.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #12807 on: March 13, 2026, 11:32:11 AM »
https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/348532/ishares-staked-ethereum-trust-etf

https://thedefiant.io/news/tradfi-and-fintech/blackrock-launches-staked-ethereum-etf-ethb

BlackRock Launches Staked Ethereum ETF
The TradFi giant's iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF is its first yield-bearing exchange-traded product.

BlackRock today debuted the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (Nasdaq: ETHB) — the firm's first crypto exchange-traded fund to incorporate staking and its third spot crypto ETF overall.

In a press release from BlackRock today, March 12, the world’s largest asset manager, with $14 trillion in AUM, said that ETHB will stake “a portion of its ether holdings.” Per the asset manager’s dedicated webpage for the fund, Coinbase Prime will provide ETH custody — and presumably staking services.

The Defiant first reported when BlackRock registered its staked Ethereum ETF last November, which came about four months after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged BlackRock’s filing to permit staking in its Ethereum ETFs.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #12808 on: March 13, 2026, 12:49:22 PM »
https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/348532/ishares-staked-ethereum-trust-etf

https://thedefiant.io/news/tradfi-and-fintech/blackrock-launches-staked-ethereum-etf-ethb

BlackRock Launches Staked Ethereum ETF
The TradFi giant's iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF is its first yield-bearing exchange-traded product.

BlackRock today debuted the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (Nasdaq: ETHB) — the firm's first crypto exchange-traded fund to incorporate staking and its third spot crypto ETF overall.

In a press release from BlackRock today, March 12, the world’s largest asset manager, with $14 trillion in AUM, said that ETHB will stake “a portion of its ether holdings.” Per the asset manager’s dedicated webpage for the fund, Coinbase Prime will provide ETH custody — and presumably staking services.

The Defiant first reported when BlackRock registered its staked Ethereum ETF last November, which came about four months after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged BlackRock’s filing to permit staking in its Ethereum ETFs.

Its a good development - although a double edged sword - be careful for what you wish for as this will exacerbate the trend of applying standard DCF valuation analysis to Eth - which, as I have explained brings it down to the $500 level, and prices it effectively as a security. Blackrock of course don't mind - that just want to increase AUM. The established ETH "treasury companies" - they stand to to be impacted.

For a true yield, based on the devaluation of global money, we of course have MSTR's revolutionary STRC product. The potential of this product, to reprice money, is simply mind-blowingly revolutionary:

-Perpetual preferred equity (no maturity)
-Monthly cash dividend
-Variable dividend rate, reset monthly
-Indirect exposure to Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury
-Designed to trade near $100 par value

Currently 11.5% yield. Absolute game changer.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #12809 on: March 13, 2026, 01:04:06 PM »
Its a good development - although a double edged sword - be careful for what you wish for as this will exacerbate the trend of applying standard DCF valuation analysis to Eth - which, as I have explained brings it down to the $500 level, and prices it effectively as a security. Blackrock of course don't mind - that just want to increase AUM. The established ETH "treasury companies" - they stand to to be impacted.

For a true yield, based on the devaluation of global money, we of course have MSTR's revolutionary STRC product. The potential of this product, to reprice money, is simply mind-blowingly revolutionary:

-Perpetual preferred equity (no maturity)
-Monthly cash dividend
-Variable dividend rate, reset monthly
-Indirect exposure to Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury
-Designed to trade near $100 par value

Currently 11.5% yield. Absolute game changer.
Strategy’s preferred yield isn’t the same thing as ETH staking yield.

Ethereum staking yield comes from protocol activity — block issuance, transaction fees, and MEV. It’s native network yield, paid in ETH and generated by the system itself.

By contrast, the yield from Strategy preferred products is just corporate dividend yield. It depends on the company’s financing structure, balance sheet, and management decisions. It’s paid in dollars and can be changed or suspended like any other security.

Those are fundamentally different things:

ETH staking -> protocol-level yield

Strategy preferred -> corporate financial engineering

Also, applying strict DCF valuation to Ethereum is a category error. Monetary assets aren’t valued purely by cash flows. If you used the same framework, Bitcoin would also be worth close to zero.

If you apply strict DCF:

Gold – near $0

BTC – near $0

ETH – near $0

So calling ETH yield “not real” while promoting corporate dividends tied to BTC exposure doesn’t really hold up.


SouJerz

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #12810 on: March 14, 2026, 03:38:47 PM »
Bitcoin’s energy-based security model and how that model could theoretically be used in cybersecurity or cyber-warfare contexts. The key idea is that Bitcoin turns electricity into cryptographic security. Bitcoin proves that you can secure digital systems by forcing attackers to spend enormous amounts of energy. That idea could be applied to cybersecurity or even cyber warfare.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #12811 on: March 14, 2026, 07:50:57 PM »
Bitcoin’s energy-based security model and how that model could theoretically be used in cybersecurity or cyber-warfare contexts. The key idea is that Bitcoin turns electricity into cryptographic security. Bitcoin proves that you can secure digital systems by forcing attackers to spend enormous amounts of energy. That idea could be applied to cybersecurity or even cyber warfare.
Most BTC ASIC miners are manufactured in China. Single Point of Failure right there. The block halving is brutal. Miners getting paid less and less BTC while their energy and hardware costs go up, and the price of BTC does not double. Fees still less than 1% of revenue - no fee growth the past 10 years.

Just realize you are not a Bitcoin miner and can't decide for them if they should continue or not. The entire thing is moronic when you stand back and look at it. Saylor himself said Bitcoin mining is a shit business.

SouJerz

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #12812 on: March 15, 2026, 05:00:57 PM »
Most BTC ASIC miners are manufactured in China. Single Point of Failure right there. The block halving is brutal. Miners getting paid less and less BTC while their energy and hardware costs go up, and the price of BTC does not double. Fees still less than 1% of revenue - no fee growth the past 10 years.

Just realize you are not a Bitcoin miner and can't decide for them if they should continue or not. The entire thing is moronic when you stand back and look at it. Saylor himself said Bitcoin mining is a shit business.
.

Sure, most ASICs are made in China, and halving makes margins tight—but that’s by design. Bitcoin’s scarcity, predictable issuance, and proof-of-work security are what make it resilient. Miners adapt, costs matter, but the network survives because incentives align. Meanwhile, Ethereum? Constant upgrades, unpredictable monetary policy, and governance drama. BTC doesn’t need a dev team to print hype—it’s proven, reliable, and censorship-resistant. Call it a ‘shit business’ if you want, but it’s the one that actually works.


Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #12813 on: March 15, 2026, 11:00:56 PM »
I'll show this one now given we are here.

I ran a 10yr Gold cycle for years.  My original top timing was Sep 2026 but as time progressed, this became a far better fit.

We have the event and Gold isn't at ATH. Something to ponder. Id also ponder oil just got wrecked to the downside after longing to 120. Why isn't it at ATH?

What I'm expecting is more tariff action to suddenly pop up again. With tariffs coming back into play, volumes get ripped out which puts downward pressure on commodities. I think the smackdown on oil is the market thinking along the lines of what I am. You wouldn't want to be massively long and then Trump says 60% tariffs......

I feel like they want to create some type of crash to usher in a flash recession similar to the covid crash. I don't think it will be tariffs as they did that 12 months ago. It will probably be Iran related, or something wild like a successful Trump assassination, or China/Taiwan.

Crypto showing some strength is nice. It will be fun when the money printers turn back on.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #12814 on: Today at 07:41:05 PM »
.

Sure, most ASICs are made in China, and halving makes margins tight—but that’s by design. Bitcoin’s scarcity, predictable issuance, and proof-of-work security are what make it resilient. Miners adapt, costs matter, but the network survives because incentives align. Meanwhile, Ethereum? Constant upgrades, unpredictable monetary policy, and governance drama. BTC doesn’t need a dev team to print hype—it’s proven, reliable, and censorship-resistant. Call it a ‘shit business’ if you want, but it’s the one that actually works.
Bitcoin will absolutely depend on its developers. The quantum threat isn’t going away — but Bitcoin developers don’t have the same level of experience as Ethereum developers. Think of it like athletes: Ethereum’s team trains constantly, upgrading and iterating, so they know how to handle challenges. Bitcoin? Not so much.

Bitcoin mining is increasingly centralized in massive mining farms, visible even from satellite images. That makes them prime targets for drones — just look at what Iran did with Bahrain.

Ethereum transactions are just as secure as Bitcoin’s, and Ethereum has a bigger security budget. Staking 51% of the ETH supply for an attack would be far more expensive than a 51% attack on Bitcoin — and attackers could be slashed, preventing repeat attacks.

Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East could push energy prices higher. If energy becomes more precious, why waste it on Bitcoin mining? Ethereum provides the same security at a fraction of the energy cost.

Right now, there are about 6 ETH for every 1 BTC, but BTC is trading at nearly 32 ETH. ETH is far scarcer than that ratio suggests, and its inflation is roughly on par with Bitcoin’s. Sure, Bitcoin’s halving every four years is impressive, but who can guarantee that BTC mining will remain decentralized enough to justify trillions in market cap? It’s far from a done deal. The next 10–20 years will be telling.