Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[BossBoss]

Its been bombarded with bad news the last few days. Everything from Yellen, to the UK news, the HSBC news, LeBitchface calling it nothing more then criminality, some failed technicles, not holding certain level long enough. .... Wonder why?

Ok, thanks for the info.
"Wonder why?" You mean they want to buy in cheap..makes sense

[Mayday]

What would you say was the cause of this sell off? Would like to hear your opinion if you have the time. Don't wana fish back pages. Cant remember everything. Lol

Easy. The 4 week ramp that looks like a skyscraper.

Will go 21k in the next 10-14 days or so. After that it’ll hit 55k-60k in a short timeframe.

I don’t read crypto news. I have made 2 trading errors in this run and both were due to news influencing me emotionally into making incorrect decisions (which I  later corrected but took a hit).

Meanwhile my original model has predicted this like clockwork. If I listened only to myself I’d be much further ahead. Instead, I second guessed myself listening to experienced traders and it only served to make shit go bad. Lesson learned.

[Bindare_Dundat]

Ok, thanks for the info.
"Wonder why?" You mean they want to buy in cheap..makes sense

Mayday and others know much more about this stuff.I was just lucky with my limited knowledge to do ok so far. Or maybe just completely lucky. The decisions I made recently will either pay off really well or I'll lose big time. Either way I'm cool with it.

Id give much more value to the other posters with good track records/overall knowledge on here than I do. Always learning.

[Bindare_Dundat]

Easy. The 4 week ramp that looks like a skyscraper.

Will go 21k in the next 10-14 days or so. After that it’ll hit 55k-60k in a short timeframe.

I don’t read crypto news. I have made 2 trading errors in this run and both were due to news influencing me emotionally into making incorrect decisions (which I  later corrected but took a hit).

Meanwhile my original model has predicted this like clockwork. If I listened only to myself I’d be much further ahead. Instead, I second guessed myself listening to experienced traders and it only served to make shit go bad. Lesson learned.

.

Thanks, Appreciate the response. All the best man.

Edit.
One quick thing.  Didn't the 50, 100 and particularly the 200 day moving average have anything to do with your call? Sorry if it's a silly thing to ask.
Would a short time frame be by Sept or much sooner?

[BossBoss]

Mayday and others know much more about this stuff.

He uses chart analysis which i not fully believe in..but he proved himself right..
which means only so much because you can be right ten times in a row throught cheer luck.

But yeah Mayday's prediction's are as good as it gets. (till now )

If he got this one right:
"Will go 21k in the next 10-14 days or so. After that it’ll hit 55k-60k in a short timeframe"
That would change my mind completely. But "in a short timeframe" can mean anything.
Let's see..

[Bindare_Dundat]

He uses chart analysis which i not fully believe in..but he proved himself right..
which means only so much because you can be right ten times in a row throught cheer luck.

But yeah Mayday's prediction's are as good as it gets. (till now )

If he got this one right:
"Will go 21k in the next 10-14 days or so. After that it’ll hit 55k-60k in a short timeframe"
That would change my mind completely. But "in a short timeframe" can mean anything.
Let's see..

Time will tell where this all goes. Some of us will  either be laughing or be laughed at I guess.

[BossBoss]

Time will tell where this all goes. Some of us will  either be laughing or be laughed at I guess.

Course, there are only two direction's up and down.
It will end in tears. (for some)

There was a lottery winner in my city, he won three million and thought he figured it all out.
He then bought lottery tickets from his win for one million.

He won again, five? million this time.

[Army of One]

Easy. The 4 week ramp that looks like a skyscraper.

Will go 21k in the next 10-14 days or so. After that it’ll hit 55k-60k in a short timeframe.

I don’t read crypto news. I have made 2 trading errors in this run and both were due to news influencing me emotionally into making incorrect decisions (which I  later corrected but took a hit).

Meanwhile my original model has predicted this like clockwork. If I listened only to myself I’d be much further ahead. Instead, I second guessed myself listening to experienced traders and it only served to make shit go bad. Lesson learned.

Everyone wants it to go that low to buy in, which is exactly why it wont. Max lowest 26k, more likely 28-29k is the bottom.If TA worked all the time then every trader would be a billionaire, rather than 97% failing miserably, TA is useful when combined with FA and a general feel for the emotions of the market. Word of advice, if only 2 trading errors mean youd be much further ahead, that means your risk tolerance is way too high, and you will fail long term, dial it back.

[Griffith]

Ethereum still up near 100% the past month compared to Bitcoin’s 30-35%.

For a period, there was some decoupling from BTC, with ETH going up and BTC down.

[gib]

A few comments.

1 - BTC is around 50% for the year. So even it was to remain at 30K for the whole of the year that's still a 50% per annum gain. (as opposed to cash which pays zero return and would be down over the year due to dilution of value due to money printing).

2 - Zoom Out is the best advice I can give. If you believe BTC has a long term future, then you must also believe t will only go up long term. And so all these movements now will be almost irrelevant in dollar terms, compared to future price points.

3 - Most, if not all people, who believe they can successfully "trade" by picking short term movements are kidding themselves.

4 - In case anyone is wondering, this time around I have hodled all my coins in cold storage. And then physically locked up my access device. The reason being is that I wanted to make my long term decision un-influenceable by short term sentiment. I'm in hodl mode until at least the next halvening event (likely in 2024). And then, based on previous halvenings will be looking at selling perhaps just a little in the subsequent 18 monts (2025-2026).

5. There is a huge amount of systematic auto-buying from many retail investors, which will help provide a stable demand (and indeed makes price go up a lot more once any larger buyers enter). Many huge institutional buyers will start nibbling away. And then suddenly, as supply/demand dynamics equalize, we suddenly will see a FOMO driven movement sharply upwards again.

6. Some of the recent sell off may be driven by hedge funds who have already made enough gains for the entire year based on BTC+alts, and want to simply lock the gains in. They could in theory go hit the beach for rest of the year, and chill by the beach until next January 2022. But they won't. The incentives, and the natural drive to make more, will bring them back in again over the next few months, as soon as they form the view that prices have "bottomed out".

[gib]

In 10 years we will all be on this.

On what? Digital money? If that's your point, the reality is we are all already using digital money, Now, if you mean smart digitial money, yes I agree that is coming. And any such money that tracks you, limits how you can spend, what you can spend, from whom, interferes with your freedom of choice etc, and which (of course) is not limited in supply, will be the single most massive driver yet that pushes people to BTC not just as a store of value but as a store and safeguard of freedom.

I have said it many times before. I would urge anyone who has not yet done so, to own, and safely HODL some BTC. If certain events transpire, it may well be one of the most important decisions you now make in terms of determining your future.

[gib]

If people think the guys who developed this don't have some sort of secret hack or key or backdoor into BTC are fooling themselves.  I bet they can pull back in any coins they want and fuck over everyone.  Since no one even knows the true identity.

Nope. not possible. The code is all publicly available and open source. With centrally managed Alts, yes this is a very valid concern. With Bitcoin, it is not.

[Griffith]

A few comments.

1 - BTC is around 50% for the year. So even it was to remain at 30K for the whole of the year that's still a 50% per annum gain. (as opposed to cash which pays zero return and would be down over the year due to dilution of value due to money printing).

2 - Zoom Out is the best advice I can give. If you believe BTC has a long term future, then you must also believe t will only go up long term. And so all these movements now will be almost irrelevant in dollar terms, compared to future price points.

3 - Most, if not all people, who believe they can successfully "trade" by picking short term movements are kidding themselves.

4 - In case anyone is wondering, this time around I have hodled all my coins in cold storage. And then physically locked up my access device. The reason being is that I wanted to make my long term decision un-influenceable by short term sentiment. I'm in hodl mode until at least the next halvening event (likely in 2024). And then, based on previous halvenings will be looking at selling perhaps just a little in the subsequent 18 monts (2025-2026).

5. There is a huge amount of systematic auto-buying from many retail investors, which will help provide a stable demand (and indeed makes price go up a lot more once any larger buyers enter). Many huge institutional buyers will start nibbling away. And then suddenly, as supply/demand dynamics equalize, we suddenly will see a FOMO driven movement sharply upwards again.

6. Some of the recent sell off may be driven by hedge funds who have already made enough gains for the entire year based on BTC+alts, and want to simply lock the gains in. They could in theory go hit the beach for rest of the year, and chill by the beach until next January 2022. But they won't. The incentives, and the natural drive to make more, will bring them back in again over the next few months, as soon as they form the view that prices have "bottomed out".

You seem to ignore Ethereum?

[gib]

Interesting how stablecoins are now condemned as a 'threat', yet Libra will also be a stablecoin pegged to the USD but will instead be using their own Facebook backed blockchain.

The concern around stable coins is primarily that if unregulated, they could be backed by nothing (as opposed to claiming they are back 1:1 with actual USD). Same concern exists with gold ETFs (who claim they are backed by physical gold, but in reality may not be).  The concern is not that stable coins are a "threat" to the USD (as if you think about it, keeping money in the bank is the same concept - is the bank as to have assets to back your claim against it for "your money" in you the bank account. Rather the concern is consumer protection focused. If what if a person puts his trust in the believe that stable coins are backed, and then the backer is unable to support those claims. (Reality is that banks do something very similar as they too operate with leverage. Hence what you saw with Lehman's when they collapsed).

Libra (no longer to be called Libra by the way) will likely be backed by a global portfolio of currencies (not just the USD). However, do not make the assumption Libra will ever get the go-ahead. Facebook have totally fucked themselves reputationally, and many global governments, let alone the US, will not permit them to engage in any kind of banking function. Remember, Facebook is a centralized corporation, and can be easily controlled. Bitcoin on the other hand is truely decentralize, and cannot be controlled (as there is no single company that own's it). Rather Bitcoin is essentially a mathematical algorithm, combined with a person's right to freedom of speech.

[gib]

You seem to ignore Ethereum?

I have a little. But I think Ethereum is far far removed from any realistic practical application that could come anywhere near justifying its valuation. Very few people truly understand it, or the complexity of what is being attempted. Further, ETH is not limited in supply, or truly decentralized, and more ether can finitely be created (indeed it will need to have many more created it it ever is to scale in any practical applications. So yes, based on hype factor and sentiment, ETH could well go up. And the ecosystem using ETH could well grow.

Don't get be wrong - what ETH is trying to address and achieve is highly ambitious and super interesting from a technology point of view. But as a global store of value, BTC in my view is firmly entrenched, so that's where the vast majority of my crypto holdings go.

[Army of One]

You seem to ignore Ethereum?

eth has a theoretical unlimited supply, currently around 115 million Ethereum in existence, with more each year.BTC has a finite supply, there wont ever been more than 21 million coins, 4 million of those are thought to be lost forever.So its already 6x more scarce, that gap will only widen with time. Ethereum is a better currency/dapp platform, BTC is a better store of value.Think of it this way, a dollar is more useful in a practical day to day sense, but Gold is more valuable and scarce.

[gib]

Actually one more thing to add. Every "sell-off" presents a new opportunity for new entrants to take positions. (And indeed, there are many who will see a 25% discount to the ATH as a "bargain" and a great time to dip their toes into the market. A broadened ownership of BTC over time is desirable, both in terms of network effects of adoption, incentives to encourage and support adoption of BTC by others, but also, over time, to help reduce volatility (which is not something that bothers me personally, but which is a factor taken into account by "mom and pop" type investors (like Mr A, who are not overly sophisticated and understandably confuse the concepts of volatility with long term value).

[Army of One]

Actually one more thing to add. Every "sell-off" presents a new opportunity for new entrants to take positions. (And indeed, there are many who will see a 25% discount to the ATH as a "bargain" and a great time to dip their toes into the market. A broadened ownership of BTC over time is desirable, both in terms of network effects of adoption, incentives to encourage and support adoption of BTC by others, but also, over time, to help reduce volatility (which is not something that bothers me personally, but which is a factor taken into account by "mom and pop" type investors (like Mr A, who are not overly sophisticated and understandably confuse the concepts of volatility with long term value).

volatility will cease to be a thing after the 2028 halving, when btc will be 1mill+ a coin.Every institution in the world will be involved in some capacity by then, central banks also.

[Bindare_Dundat]

Thanks guys. Some good information here.
Whenever in doubt, a Michael Saylor video is worth watching He makes some convincing arguments for btc.

[gib]

volatility will cease to be a thing after the 2028 halving, when btc will be 1mill+ a coin.Every institution in the world will be involved in some capacity by then, central banks also.

Agree - certainly quite possible we won't ever see such huge moves as now. And moves more akin to gold or long term treasury yields.

We will also likely be talking primarily in "Sats" opposed to BTC, give how much an actual BTC will be worth (much like we typically talk about gold in ounces or grams, (as opposed to kilos or tonnes)

[Mayday]

He uses chart analysis which i not fully believe in..but he proved himself right..
which means only so much because you can be right ten times in a row throught cheer luck.

But yeah Mayday's prediction's are as good as it gets. (till now )

If he got this one right:
"Will go 21k in the next 10-14 days or so. After that it’ll hit 55k-60k in a short timeframe"
That would change my mind completely. But "in a short timeframe" can mean anything.
Let's see..

Yes and no. I don’t know anybody accidentally correct that often. Generally 1/10 times by accident.

I can read raw data tables 100 times faster than a simple chart. I am shit with charts. I fucked up because if people getting in my head with charts and clouding my judgment.

It’s like this.

I called for a 31k-33k range pullback but I can’t recall if I posted that or messaged someone here. We are there now.

A drop to 21k. I won’t be exact on timing but Before mid Feb.

55k-60k in April.

We shall see.

[Army of One]

A drop to 21k. I won’t be exact on timing but Before mid Feb.

I can see you are getting this from the moving averages, but just like it constantly went against the RSI in this runup, I wouldnt read too much in to the TA at this point.

[Mayday]

I can see you are getting this from the moving averages, but just like it constantly went against the RSI in this runup, I wouldnt read too much in to the TA at this point.

Yes, the 21wk ema

Thanks for your previous post, it is noted.

I am seeing more violent drops and more violent bounces than the past. I think the bounces are luring people into a false security that prices can’t hit certain levels.

Let’s see how we go.

[Griffith]

Yes and no. I don’t know anybody accidentally correct that often. Generally 1/10 times by accident.

I can read raw data tables 100 times faster than a simple chart. I am shit with charts. I fucked up because if people getting in my head with charts and clouding my judgment.

It’s like this.

I called for a 31k-33k range pullback but I can’t recall if I posted that or messaged someone here. We are there now.

A drop to 21k. I won’t be exact on timing but Before mid Feb.

55k-60k in April.

We shall see.

What are your current views for Ethereum?

[loco]

Is "Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today" ?