Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[a_pupil]

Is "Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today" ?   

[Bindare_Dundat]

I can see you are getting this from the moving averages, but just like it constantly went against the RSI in this runup, I wouldnt read too much in to the TA at this point.

This is what I was asking a few posts back. Glad you broght it up.

[SOMEPARTS]

volatility will cease to be a thing after the 2028 halving, when btc will be 1mill+ a coin.Every institution in the world will be involved in some capacity by then, central banks also.

2028 haha.

[Griffith]

https://kryptomoney.com/ethereum-2-0-set-to-cause-halving-the-aftermath-of-ethereums-proof-of-stake/

Ethereum 2.0 Set to Cause “Halving”

Eth 2.0 issuance is expected to be somewhere between 100,000 and 2 million a year, with the most likely scenario being that it will be much less than 2 million.

ETH Supply to Be Halved- presently, Ethereum has about 4.7 million ETH in issuance yearly, with ETH 2.0, ETH supply will range between 100,000 and 2 million annually, apparently less than 2 million.

Halving Will Be Accompanied by “Burning”- following every significant increase in transaction volumes, the total ETH in circulating supply will be reduced due to “burning”.

Explaining what was meant by “burning”, Buterin said that the initial transaction fees charged by the protocol will be halved, the first part goes to the miner as a ‘reward’, while the other part just gets burnt.

[Theoak*]

eth has a theoretical unlimited supply, currently around 115 million Ethereum in existence, with more each year.BTC has a finite supply, there wont ever been more than 21 million coins, 4 million of those are thought to be lost forever.So its already 6x more scarce, that gap will only widen with time. Ethereum is a better currency/dapp platform, BTC is a better store of value.Think of it this way, a dollar is more useful in a practical day to day sense, but Gold is more valuable and scarce.

For the last decade many had a critical stance vs bitcoin. now, after 10 years of bitcoin bashing they come up with an articles claiming that ETH "is better than bitcoin."  no word about it being centralized. no word about there is no cap. no word about the fact that it is not possible to run a validating node in the ETH network. no word about the fact that its design is fucked up from scratch trying to become a "world computer" on chain. no word about the fact that it has no valid monetary policy.   Most hav3 never understood bitcoin, bashing it for years and then went one to welcome this pre-mined scam without the slightest critique. they fell victim to their own moronic stupidity.

[Theoak*]

Actually one more thing to add. Every "sell-off" presents a new opportunity for new entrants to take positions. (And indeed, there are many who will see a 25% discount to the ATH as a "bargain" and a great time to dip their toes into the market. A broadened ownership of BTC over time is desirable, both in terms of network effects of adoption, incentives to encourage and support adoption of BTC by others, but also, over time, to help reduce volatility (which is not something that bothers me personally, but which is a factor taken into account by "mom and pop" type investors (like Mr A, who are not overly sophisticated and understandably confuse the concepts of volatility with long term value).

25% corrections in a btc bull market are normal. nothing to worry. this is such a weak correction, there isnt even some proper FUD coming with it. in january 2017, for example, we were getting out of the first 3 year bear market. it was not clear if bitcoin would be able to ever get back to those $1k levels. when it finally did in january 2017, China banned bitcoin. for real. price went down from $1100 area to 700 area.

[Theoak*]

Yes and no. I don’t know anybody accidentally correct that often. Generally 1/10 times by accident.

I can read raw data tables 100 times faster than a simple chart. I am shit with charts. I fucked up because if people getting in my head with charts and clouding my judgment.

It’s like this.

I called for a 31k-33k range pullback but I can’t recall if I posted that or messaged someone here. We are there now.

A drop to 21k. I won’t be exact on timing but Before mid Feb.

55k-60k in April.

We shall see.

relax.
i dont get "selling" btc. you want to trade btc? most professsional traders lose. almost all retail traders lose. bitcoin is longterm savings get rich slow tech. dont trade the best performing asset ever. if you bought and price dips below your entry, be thankful for the opportunity to buy more and lower your entry price. 

when trading you are trying to outperform traders that are:

-smarter
-more experienced
-with waaayyyy deeper pockets
-who are well connected
-and ruthless
-better informed

[Theoak*]

Agree - certainly quite possible we won't ever see such huge moves as now. And moves more akin to gold or long term treasury yields.

We will also likely be talking primarily in "Sats" opposed to BTC, give how much an actual BTC will be worth (much like we typically talk about gold in ounces or grams, (as opposed to kilos or tonnes)

bitcoin is generational wealth technology. one just does not sell btc for stuff. you guys are all set to create wealth dynasties, the fun part is that you guys are the first in those dynasties. your portrait is the first in the gallery. you create them. your descendants keep it growing. think in generations, never sell btc. use it as collateral. it is the best collateral ever created, most pristine, most pure, most valuable. you are responsible for several generations down the line. selling btc means giving it up. KEEP it. whenever you want to acquire something, get some dirty fiat using btc as collateral.

the net worth of future families will not be measured in billions of fiat. it will be tens or hundreds (and in some rare cases thousands) of btc.

[Soul Crusher]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/13822372/bitcoin-whales-crash-market


 

[Mayday]

What are your current views for Ethereum?

ETHBTC ratio is increasing when prices are stable. Whether that continues in Q2 i am unsure. A 0.05-0.08 price ratio probably will happen this year.

During recent pullbacks ETH falls harder as the ratio unwinds. Therefore the ratio is only holding up under stable and/or increasing price points. Eg A 20% pullback on BTC is a 30% pullback on ETH.

People are overly focused on price exploding up. The lowest pricing will happen these coming weeks. The focus should be looking for the down.

[Griffith]

https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2021/01/as-eth-surges-toward-new-highs-former-goldman-sachs-exec-increases-his-holdings/

As $ETH Surges Toward New Highs, Former Goldman Sachs Exec Increases His Holdings

Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal, who is seen as an important influencer in the crypto community, revealed on Monday (January 18) that he had increased his ETH holdings.

''For longer-term HODLers of BTC and ETH this is probably a good time to start accumulating more. Personally, I've added more ETH and now time to add more speculative crypto.''

Joey Krug, Co-Chief Investment Officer at blockchain-focused investment firm Pantera Capital Management LP, explained in his firm’s most recent monthly newsletter why Ethereum (ETH) is undervalued.

In the January 2021 issue of Pantera Blockchain Letter, which was published on January 14, Krug started by giving an introduction to Ethereum and its ecosystem:

“Ethereum is the leading asset in the cryptocurrency space for developers who want to write smart contracts and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. It’s the base money collateral for this new financial system. …

Finally, Keug listed several positive catalysts that make Pantera Capital “very bullish on Ethereum” and feel confident that the Ether (ETH) price is heading higher this year:

- “Ethereum is currently down 37% from its all-time high and we believe undervalued on a relative basis to Bitcoin… we’re overweight Ethereum. Bitcoin dominance has been hitting above 70% recently, which tends to be at the higher end of its range in recent years, and as the bull market continues, we think people will take some of their Bitcoin gains and roll them into Ethereum.

- “… once CME ETH futures launch, it legitimizes Ethereum as something institutional investors can own, and it’s actually a fairly easy bucket for them to allocate to (it fits in their tech disruption buckets).

- “… as more and more holders stake their ETH in Ethereum 2.0, that locks up Ethereum, which means less sell pressure on the price.”

[Griffith]

ETHBTC ratio is increasing when prices are stable. Whether that continues in Q2 i am unsure. A 0.05-0.08 price ratio probably will happen this year.

During recent pullbacks ETH falls harder as the ratio unwinds. Therefore the ratio is only holding up under stable and/or increasing price points. Eg A 20% pullback on BTC is a 30% pullback on ETH.

People are overly focused on price exploding up. The lowest pricing will happen these coming weeks. The focus should be looking for the down.

Seems a realistic estimate.

And agreed, focusing on potential drops now.

[Bindare_Dundat]

ripping today.

The above article says this:

“Ethereum is the leading asset in the cryptocurrency space for developers who want to write smart contracts and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. It’s the base money collateral for this new financial system. …

For those that mentioned that Ethereum is centralized, where is Raoul wrong? Or am I  misunderstanding something here?

[Bindare_Dundat]

ETHBTC ratio is increasing when prices are stable. Whether that continues in Q2 i am unsure. A 0.05-0.08 price ratio probably will happen this year.

During recent pullbacks ETH falls harder as the ratio unwinds. Therefore the ratio is only holding up under stable and/or increasing price points. Eg A 20% pullback on BTC is a 30% pullback on ETH.

People are overly focused on price exploding up. The lowest pricing will happen these coming weeks. The focus should be looking for the down.

But this hasn't occurred this last BTC drop? ETh remained relatively stable compared to BTC, did it not? Arent prices volatile, not stable?

[Griffith]

ripping today.

The above article says this:

“Ethereum is the leading asset in the cryptocurrency space for developers who want to write smart contracts and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. It’s the base money collateral for this new financial system. …

For those that mentioned that Ethereum is centralized, where is Raoul wrong? Or am I  misunderstanding something here?

I don't know where they're coming up with that accusation:

''Ethereum enables the deployment of smart contracts and decentralized applications (dapps) to be built and run without any downtime, fraud, control or interference from a third party.''

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/031416/bitcoin-vs-ethereum-driven-different-purposes.asp

[Bindare_Dundat]

I don't know where they're coming up with that criticism:

''Ethereum enables the deployment of smart contracts and decentralized applications (dapps) to be built and run without any downtime, fraud, control or interference from a third party.''

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/031416/bitcoin-vs-ethereum-driven-different-purposes.asp

yeah, I dont understand.

[Bindare_Dundat]

[Mayday]

But this hasn't occurred this last BTC drop? ETh remained relatively stable compared to BTC, did it not? Arent prices volatile, not stable?

The ratio unwinds on a pullback and is not stable. I was looking at this very thing during the pullback the other day because I needed to understand whether falls on ETH were faster than a BTC. A 10%+ reduction of ratio during this last slide followed by a return to the previous ratio means in a slide ETH falls faster.

When we see BTC tap 21k and even lower on the downward overrun, you will see ETH get utterly wrecked for the duration of that decline and drop to a 0.028 or lower ratio. This will be in the ‘minutes of the bottom’ and then a window of hours. After that it will been bounce up to a close and begin it’s upward ratio run.

[loco]

Good read:

The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

Jan 14, 2021

https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3

[Bindare_Dundat]

Good read:

The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

Jan 14, 2021

https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3

Ok.....

[Mayday]

Good read:

The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

Jan 14, 2021

https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3

It’s for tax evasion.

Tax is applied when a purchase and sale is completed. A sale is classed as an exit from the purchase/asset hold.

If you buy ETH using tether or BTC and then you sell ETH into tether or BTC you are completing the investment transaction and tax is applied in local currency.

The reason people use tether is to try and keep their buy and sell transactions private from the banking audit systems. Legit exchanges report your transactions to the govt anyway so you need to play by the rules or get fined or sent to jail.

If you choose an exchange that doesn’t report transactions and doesn’t accept bank account inflows and outflows then you are subject to the exchange being frozen. That’s a risk you accept.

I wonder if the guy who wrote the article declared his profits? Or if he is whinging about the risk of a system whilst taking advantage himself? 

I see loads of people online crowing how it’s awesome Bitcoin is becoming bigger and in the next breath whinging they can’t evade paying tax on profits.....

[Griffith]

Good read:

The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

Jan 14, 2021

https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3

On January 8th, I saw this post on Hacker News about Tether manipulating the price of Bitcoin. That shook me: I’d assumed Tether had been purged from the crypto markets, yet apparently it was still around. But how much Tether could there really be in the crypto markets? Surely not that much.

Still, I took a look. The answer, I was surprised to see, was a lot:



The upshot: over two-thirds of all Bitcoin — $10 billion worth of it — that was bought in the previous 24 hours, was being purchased with Tethers.

Practically all the crypto sold on these three exchanges was being bought with Tethers. None at all was being bought with USD.

Bitcoin was clearly correlated with Tether; Tether was clearly being issued at a frantic rate; and that issuance had a high probability of being backed by nothing at all.

It seemed I’d been wrong to dismiss Tether. Tether wasn’t just in the crypto markets — Tether was the crypto markets.

From January 2020 to September 2020, the amount of all foreign currencies held by all the domestic banks in the Bahamas increases by only $600 million — going from $4.7B to $5.3B. (The table is in Bahamian dollars, but the Bahamian dollar is pegged to the US dollar, so 1 BSD = 1 USD.)

But during the same period, total issued Tethers increased by almost $5.4 billion — going from $4.6B to $10B!

The implication was shocking: there weren’t nearly enough dollars in all the domestic banks in the Bahamas to back the Tethers that were floating around in the crypto market.

So this was crypto’s big short: Tether Ltd. was short of US dollars — to the tune of about $25 billion.

- - - - -

That's a summary of his key points.

He's basically arguing that Tether is issuing out tokens which aren't backed by USD (since they do not have anywhere near the funds or assets to back these amounts) but are still used to buy cryptocurrencies.

This is also the argument Roubini made against Tether and Bitcoin, that it's being manipulated, due to use of unbacked Tether tokens.

[Mayday]

Cheers for the summary Griff.

It really should shed some light for people that tax evasion is massive in crypto.

Still, at some point you will want to exit in local currency and if you deal with enough money, your account will be frozen and investigated.

A lot of early holders worth millions are pissed to discover them buying 10M of ETH using BTC has triggered a 5M tax bill.....

[gib]

Cheers for the summary Griff.

It really should shed some light for people that tax evasion is massive in crypto.

Still, at some point you will want to exit in local currency and if you deal with enough money, your account will be frozen and investigated.

A lot of early holders worth millions are pissed to discover them buying 10M of ETH using BTC has triggered a 5M tax bill.....

Depends on the country. But yes, in most countries, if you are wanting to deposit a large amount of money into a bank, the banks will be required to satisfy themselves as to the legitimacy of the source of the money. Having said that, I know at least 4 people who have "cashed in" over 1m USD in BTC over short periods of time. They are all accredited HNWs with a offshore bank based in Hong Kong. They do need to do an annual survey that asks them about the source of their wealth etc, but for them its all been OK. From the HK bank they can send to any account they wish. Also, in HK as an off shore bank, no need to pay any income taxes or capital gains tax.

[Mayday]

If it’s offshore and you keep it offshore at worst you risk a freezing of funds.

If you move offshore to onshore you risk freezing of funds, assets, fines and jail.

It’s almost laughable how easy it is to ping someone. The only sure way is to be out of the system and keep out. This means paying people using crypto.

The second you enter the system you are visible. People think nobody looked and so they keep doing it. Eventually they get a knock and face jail time because it wasn’t a one off but several instances and larger amounts.

Everybody always gets away with it until they don’t get away with it.