Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Flexacon]

You are discounting the network effect. It takes time to build that up. The current cryptos have a head start.

I'm sure a few cryptos will sneak through. Like how Amazon survived the dotcom crash. One of those crypto might even end up being the one banking and governments adopt. It won't be bitcoin though.

[Flexacon]

Government officials are probably also invested in crypto. Why would they want to kill that? Also the more wealth goes into crypto the more lobbying power the industry could have.

But it is a noteworthy argument to look at the past dot com bubble and also what happened in the mobile phone arena. Blackberry and Nokia were huge and dominated. Along came Apple with the iPhone and then Android to spoil the party for them.

Government officials will naturally invest in current cryptos because they'll know before most of us if shit is about to hit the fan.

[Mayday]

People are rightly feeling uneasy with everything going on right now, but the pandemic is reaching its tailend in the West and IMO the boom period will beat expectations. There is a ridiculous amount of money waiting to spent by people with poor impulse control. At worst this kicks the can further down the road and delays any crash (look to history again) but that's enough time for blockchain and crypto to take another evolution.

2008 GFC kicked the can and it landed in 2020.

The Boom is happening in financial assets at the top end but that’s it.

Stocks go up. Commodities go up. Property goes up. Wages deflated.l against financial assets.

There is no wage inflation because it’s linked to CPI. There is no CPI because it’s linked to the bond market. There is no yield in the bond market because they started to perform Yield Curve Control to prevent interest rates going up and prevent inflation which in turn keeps wages down.

The property I purchased 6 months ago went up 50%. My wage went up 0.9% over a year inline with CPI.

We already have a 5x in sea fright costs.

We will get a large cost increase from commodities on top of this due to traders buying up contracts and raising our cost base.

If retail prices go up, volumes drop and profit gets squeezed whilst at the same time workers scream for higher wages and business who won’t/can’t pay higher wages scream they can’t find workers.

[gib]

2008 GFC kicked the can and it landed in 2020.

The Boom is happening in financial assets at the top end but that’s it.

Stocks go up. Commodities go up. Property goes up. Wages deflated.l against financial assets.

There is no wage inflation because it’s linked to CPI. There is no CPI because it’s linked to the bond market. There is no yield in the bond market because they started to perform Yield Curve Control to prevent interest rates going up and prevent inflation which in turn keeps wages down.

The property I purchased 6 months ago went up 50%. My wage went up 0.9% over a year inline with CPI.

We already have a 5x in sea fright costs.

We will get a large cost increase from commodities on top of this due to traders buying up contracts and raising our cost base.

If retail prices go up, volumes drop and profit gets squeezed whilst at the same time workers scream for higher wages and business who won’t/can’t pay higher wages scream they can’t find workers.

Agree with all this, except the statement that wages are linked to CPI. Wages are in fact entirely linked and governed by labour supply and demand. So, for some people, their wages have gone up significantly. For others their wages have fallen (or ceased entirely). Same for the profits (or losses) of businesses. That is not to say that both employers and employees might not reference a CPI calculation in negotiating wages. But ultimately, the price for services (and that includes price for labor) is a function of supply and demand.

[gib]

Government officials will naturally invest in current cryptos because they'll know before most of us if shit is about to hit the fan.

Not just will, but already have...

And not just Govt officials, but also the rich and powerful.

[gib]

I'm sure a few cryptos will sneak through. Like how Amazon survived the dotcom crash. One of those crypto might even end up being the one banking and governments adopt. It won't be bitcoin though.

Certainly possible. But (much as I wish it was not the case) what is not possible that you (or me) can accurately predict what those surviving alts will be (nor what price now pay for them below any kind of current fair market value that takes into account anticipated future value).

In terms of "what Governments will adopt", Bitcoin has already been adopted by Government globally (indeed they have no choice). Citizens of ALL Governments globally are already (and will continue) to use BTC as a global store of value. Samoe applies to banks. Bitcoin is the single largest crypto asset banks hold, allow payments for, provide custody services for, have customer fiat money converted over into BTC, connect with credit cards that have BTC as an option, etc etc.

Its very important that you understand this now (as opposed to in 10 years time).

If you are not already, my advice is simple , Ensure you are a wholecoiner (one of the future monetary elite).  Ideally do this also for your loved ones, family etc. Then simply hodl, ignoring noise along the way. Thank me (and more importantly yourself) for your foresight in a decade from now.

[Mayday]

Agree with all this, except the statement that wages are linked to CPI. Wages are in fact entirely linked and governed by labour supply and demand. So, for some people, their wages have gone up significantly. For others their wages have fallen (or ceased entirely). Same for the profits (or losses) of businesses. That is not to say that both employers and employees might not reference a CPI calculation in negotiating wages. But ultimately, the price for services (and that includes price for labor) is a function of supply and demand.

CPI is the metric used for business to justify wage inflation.

The fundamental is supply/demand which sets the initial salary band as you say but after that the business economy and govts use CPI for annual wage increase calculations and forecasts.

We don’t have ‘wage price discovery’ on an annual basis. We all know what we are worth due to the massive amount of job data available. Once employed, you get CPI annual increases for the vast majority.

You know that Mr picky lol. It’s acceptable To talk in broader terms yeah?

[Griffith]

CPI is the metric used for business to justify wage inflation.

The fundamental is supply/demand which sets the initial salary band as you say but after that the business economy and govts use CPI for annual wage increase calculations and forecasts.

We don’t have ‘wage price discovery’ on an annual basis. We all know what we are worth due to the massive amount of job data available. Once employed, you get CPI annual increases for the vast majority.

You know that Mr picky lol. It’s acceptable To talk in broader terms yeah?

Correct.

[obsidian]

[Griffith]

I'm keeping an eye on VeChain (VET).

It's performed extremely well for me so far and I think there's a good chance it go to at least $1.00 in this bull cycle from a current $ 0.22.

If it gets listed on Coinbase, the price could also skyrocket.

Some more optimistic forecasts I've seen are $3.00 to $5.00.

[pellius]

Blockchain is the internet and that isn't going anywhere. The current cryptos are where I see there being a negative outcome as the situation resembles the madness involving dotcom companies. It doesn't mean I see that as being the end of cryptos, quite the opposite. That's when cryptos will start to become truly mainstream. But it won't be any of the ones getting the headlines now. It will most likely be something new.

People are rightly feeling uneasy with everything going on right now, but the pandemic is reaching its tailend in the West and IMO the boom period will beat expectations. There is a ridiculous amount of money waiting to spent by people with poor impulse control. At worst this kicks the can further down the road and delays any crash (look to history again) but that's enough time for blockchain and crypto to take another evolution.

Again, based on what? Sounds like you're just making random speculations to appear in the know when you know full well that you will never be called out on being wrong.

[pellius]

I explained in post 5978. Same reason people stopped using netscape, Aol search etc.

And the reason for that was..... Yes, new competitors enter the market and often do it better if the original doesn't adapt. Cash gave way to checks, to credit cards, to internet... things evolve but that doesn't mean those options didn't serve it's purpose. BTC is here now and is what most people are using and will continue to grow. Will it be around forever? Nothing lasts forever. Sears use to rule the retail world. They are all but gone now. You're acting like BTC is not worth the investment and we should wait for the next big thing.

Because every transaction could be tracked or limited to certain types of transactions if the crypto was designed that way.

Also you do realise that they could outlaw bitcoin, ban mining, shut down exchanges and a whole host of other restrictions if they wanted to. Even if that didn't kill off bitcoin, it would send the price crashing. Bitcoin is a free beta testing for the government when it comes to blockchain.

Also you do realize this applies to every single crypto out there and in the future so that's hardly an argument.

[obsidian]

Ethereum went up to $2,504 again today. Ethereum's price really should be at around $5,000-$6,000 with Bitcoin sitting above $50,000.

Ethereum's circulating supply is around 115.12 million. Bitcoin's circulation supply is 18.69 million. That means ETH's supply is 6.15 times that of BTC. And with EIP-1559 ETH's inflation will be stopped in its tracks. One could argue that ETH's token value should be 1/6th of Bitcoin's. $54,000 / 6 = $9,000. $2,400-$2,500 is really laughable when you consider the fundamentals of Ethereum.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-04-21/Dogecoin-and-Ethereum-one-of-these-is-very-very-undervalued-Ran-Neuner.html

Ethereum’s value lies in not just its technological capabilities, but also in its network effect, said Ran Neuner, co-founder of Crypto Banter, host of CNBC’s Crypto Trader and CEO of OnChain Capital.

Speaking to Michelle Makori, editor-in-chief for Kitco News, Neuner said that should Ethereum be priced using comparable network metrics as Bitcoin, the price should be several times higher.

“If you compare where the Ethereum network is versus the Bitcoin network, and you say on a like-for-like basis, what should Ethereum be trading at? You get a valuation, according to Metcalfe’s Law, of Ethereum at about $6,000,” he said.

Ethereum is currently trading $2,400, and is therefore “very, very underpriced,” Neuner noted.

However, the similarities between Bitcoin and Ethereum end there.

“I think comparing Bitcoin to Ethereum is a very bad thing…that’s like comparing gold to Amazon,” he said. “The only thing is that they’re both crypto currencies and they’re both used on blockchain but they’re two completely different things. Bitcoin is a store of value, it’s a value transfer between me and you. That’s what Bitcoin does and it does it really well. Ethereum, however, is a world supercomputer that is decentralized.”

On Dogecoin, Neuner said that the crypto that skyrocketed more than 500% in less than three days in mid-April has no intrinsic value and is a pure speculation play.

“Dogecoin is at best a meme coin. It is a useless piece of technology, which is not very secure. It was designed as a joke, it was designed as a meme. They called it a small change coin,” he said. “It was designed badly on purpose.”

Additionally, unlike Bitcoin, there isn’t a finite amount of Dogecoin as more of it can be created. Neuner compared this feature to the U.S. dollar, another currency that does not have a hard cap on supply, which he also referred to as a “meme coin.”

Dogecoin’s popularity was driven up in part by TikTokers, who see this is a kind of “freedom coin,” according to Neuner.

“What happens next? One of two things: one, it crashes, all these TikTokers get wiped out, and it’s just another one of these pump and dump schemes. Dogecoin has done [this] several times since 2017, it goes up, and then it somehow goes down. Or two, the TikTok generation actually adopts this as their cryptocurrency,” he said.

[obsidian]

I'm keeping an eye on VeChain (VET).

It's performed extremely well for me so far and I think there's a good chance it go to at least $1.00 in this bull cycle from a current $ 0.22.

If it gets listed on Coinbase, the price could also skyrocket.

Some more optimistic forecasts I've seen are $3.00 to $5.00.

I've had quite a bit of VeChain for years now. I never even realized I had it until I checked my Binance account. BUT I should have bought a lot more back in the day when the token was worth nothing. The (4) I should have really gone balls deep with are VeChain, BNB, ADA and Doge. I could have had a bigger boat!

[Flexacon]

Again, based on what? Sounds like you're just making random speculations to appear in the know when you know full well that you will never be called out on being wrong.

I've already touched on this and your other post in a previous post of mine.

I'll add the caveat that no ones knows for certain what will happen and this is all opinion, but history is a great teacher. This has dotcom written all over it.

And the reason for that was..... Yes, new competitors enter the market and often do it better if the original doesn't adapt. Cash gave way to checks, to credit cards, to internet... things evolve but that doesn't mean those options didn't serve it's purpose. BTC is here now and is what most people are using and will continue to grow. Will it be around forever? Nothing lasts forever. Sears use to rule the retail world. They are all but gone now. You're acting like BTC is not worth the investment and we should wait for the next big thing.

I don't think I've acted like that. I've explained the type of investment I think bitcoin should be viewed as to right now. I've also not mentioned anything about waiting for the next big thing.

Most getting into bitcoin now are basically using in it the same way someone might invest in a rare baseball card, precious gems or artwork. Or as a hedge against a complete market collapse/hyperinflation. Some will do very well out of it, some will get their fingers burnt.

Also bitcoin lives in the technological world. I'd rather compare it to other products that lived in the same landscape. Comparing it to Sears makes very little sense.

[Flexacon]

The property I purchased 6 months ago went up 50%. My wage went up 0.9% over a year inline with CPI.

This isn't something unique. It's been happening in hotspots across the globe for a couple of decades now.

Also I don't see things ending up in a 1930s type depression. There will be jobs, just not people willing to do them. The likeliest solution will immigration and more stimulus checks (UBI). When a government backed crypto is ready that's when UBI becomes a thing and replaces stimulus checks.

[Bindare_Dundat]

I'm keeping an eye on VeChain (VET).

It's performed extremely well for me so far and I think there's a good chance it go to at least $1.00 in this bull cycle from a current $ 0.22.

If it gets listed on Coinbase, the price could also skyrocket.

Some more optimistic forecasts I've seen are $3.00 to $5.00.

Good call holding as well

[Bindare_Dundat]

Ethereum went up to $2,504 again today. Ethereum's price really should be at around $5,000-$6,000 with Bitcoin sitting above $50,000.

Ethereum's circulating supply is around 115.12 million. Bitcoin's circulation supply is 18.69 million. That means ETH's supply is 6.15 times that of BTC. And with EIP-1559 ETH's inflation will be stopped in its tracks. One could argue that ETH's token value should be 1/6th of Bitcoin's. $54,000 / 6 = $9,000. $2,400-$2,500 is really laughable when you consider the fundamentals of Ethereum.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-04-21/Dogecoin-and-Ethereum-one-of-these-is-very-very-undervalued-Ran-Neuner.html

Ethereum’s value lies in not just its technological capabilities, but also in its network effect, said Ran Neuner, co-founder of Crypto Banter, host of CNBC’s Crypto Trader and CEO of OnChain Capital.

Speaking to Michelle Makori, editor-in-chief for Kitco News, Neuner said that should Ethereum be priced using comparable network metrics as Bitcoin, the price should be several times higher.

“If you compare where the Ethereum network is versus the Bitcoin network, and you say on a like-for-like basis, what should Ethereum be trading at? You get a valuation, according to Metcalfe’s Law, of Ethereum at about $6,000,” he said.

Ethereum is currently trading $2,400, and is therefore “very, very underpriced,” Neuner noted.

However, the similarities between Bitcoin and Ethereum end there.

“I think comparing Bitcoin to Ethereum is a very bad thing…that’s like comparing gold to Amazon,” he said. “The only thing is that they’re both crypto currencies and they’re both used on blockchain but they’re two completely different things. Bitcoin is a store of value, it’s a value transfer between me and you. That’s what Bitcoin does and it does it really well. Ethereum, however, is a world supercomputer that is decentralized.”

On Dogecoin, Neuner said that the crypto that skyrocketed more than 500% in less than three days in mid-April has no intrinsic value and is a pure speculation play.

“Dogecoin is at best a meme coin. It is a useless piece of technology, which is not very secure. It was designed as a joke, it was designed as a meme. They called it a small change coin,” he said. “It was designed badly on purpose.”

Additionally, unlike Bitcoin, there isn’t a finite amount of Dogecoin as more of it can be created. Neuner compared this feature to the U.S. dollar, another currency that does not have a hard cap on supply, which he also referred to as a “meme coin.”

Dogecoin’s popularity was driven up in part by TikTokers, who see this is a kind of “freedom coin,” according to Neuner.

“What happens next? One of two things: one, it crashes, all these TikTokers get wiped out, and it’s just another one of these pump and dump schemes. Dogecoin has done [this] several times since 2017, it goes up, and then it somehow goes down. Or two, the TikTok generation actually adopts this as their cryptocurrency,” he said.

Doge is at 26 cents. My dream is coming true. Burn in hell doge. Lol

[obsidian]

Crypto Hulk!

[obsidian]

Doge is at 26 cents. My dream is coming true. Burn in hell doge. Lol

Lol we'll see. Doge to the Moon!!!!

[gib]

CPI is the metric used for business to justify wage inflation.

The fundamental is supply/demand which sets the initial salary band as you say but after that the business economy and govts use CPI for annual wage increase calculations and forecasts.

We don’t have ‘wage price discovery’ on an annual basis. We all know what we are worth due to the massive amount of job data available. Once employed, you get CPI annual increases for the vast majority.

You know that Mr picky lol. It’s acceptable To talk in broader terms yeah?

The prime metric an employer uses in determining wages they offer is supply and demand. If the supply of workers of the type they need is low, they of course will need to offer more to get such workers. Regardless of what CPI is. Similarly if the supply of such workers is high, then those workers aint getting a wage increase, regardless of how CPI is.

Also, in practice, CPI is not an inherent or objective metric (although theoretically it could be). There is no single uniform or global "CPI" formula, so to speak of. Practically, its entirely dependent on what things you wish to measure, and how you measure it. So your own personal measured "CPI", vs mine, vs that from a welfare agency vs that provided as an official government CPI agency will all be very different. If what you care about (or your "basket") is the averaged cost of McDonalds, gasoline for your carm Netflix and Nike sneakers, your measurement will be very different to if your basket consisted of the cost buying a house, private medical care, Bitcoin and equities.

Governments currently have an inherent narrative to make people think things are not going up, hence many cost components are excluded, are removed, replaced etc to help achieve giving people this belief. So, we tell people that inflation is very low, but the reality is of course very different. And we don't necessarily decrease wages (as that would make people feel poorer). Instead we do this via stealth by printing more money (and then trying to convice people that doing so will not have an inflationary effect).

[gib]

Doge is at 26 cents. My dream is coming true. Burn in hell doge. Lol

Well, I did warn you...

All these alts can boom and bust. Fun when booming, but vast vast majority will fade to zero.

[obsidian]

Ethereum new ATH $2,528. Let's go to $3,000!

EDIT: Make that $2,538.86

[Mayday]

Snip

you’ve gone off on a bit of a tangent dude. There is no free lunch, wages get crushed in this scenario every single time throughout history.

In my P&L I have set CPI for annual wage increase. This is while working for global consumer brands in my country. I hate to tell you but we use a CPI globally as a standard annual review method.

Wage guidelines are set by the company which are low-mid-high tier guidelines and follow industry standards. Again, normal and set.

We do not review supply/demand when hiring or adjust salaries because only 10 applicants applied instead of 100. It’s generally mid tier wage and we have never had a problem hiring in decades.

Where the supply/demand argument falls over is when the system breaks down. Business will not increase wages and People simply refuse to work due to low wages. Weimar Germany, 1940s, 1970s protests by those wanting higher pay, protests by those wanting jobs. Business sat tight on wages and crushed the workers.

There was data released just these last 2 weeks about this very thing showing growing job vacancies vs wage offers decreasing.

Supply/demand rules dictate they resolve it meanwhile in the real world businesses are refusing to increase their wages and are going down the path of reduced staff.

[gib]

you’ve gone off on a bit of a tangent dude. There is no free lunch, wages get crushed in this scenario every single time throughout history.

In my P&L I have set CPI for annual wage increase. This is while working for global consumer brands in my country. I hate to tell you but we use a CPI globally as a standard annual review method.

Wage guidelines are set by the company which are low-mid-high tier guidelines and follow industry standards. Again, normal and set.

We do not review supply/demand when hiring or adjust salaries because only 10 applicants applied instead of 100. It’s generally mid tier wage and we have never had a problem hiring in decades.

Where the supply/demand argument falls over is when the system breaks down. Business will not increase wages and People simply refuse to work due to low wages. Weimar Germany, 1940s, 1970s protests by those wanting higher pay, protests by those wanting jobs. Business sat tight on wages and crushed the workers.

There was data released just these last 2 weeks about this very thing showing growing job vacancies vs wage offers decreasing.

Supply/demand rules dictate they resolve it meanwhile in the real world businesses are refusing to increase their wages and are going down the path of reduced staff.

I don't dispute that some companies (and unions also) use a CPI measurement as a benchmark for salary adjustments and negotiations. But as a businessman, I can tell you it ALWAYS comes down to supply and demand in the long run. Anyone who runs a business will confirm this. If not, you won't survive as a successful and competitive company.

In the industries I operate and invest in, primarily tech and finance, we pay what the market demands. We track what competitors pay, and we track retention rate. We pay zero attention to any kind of Government CPI calculation.

You don't pay more than you need to for the maximum output, Common sense, and basic economics. For non-competitive employee wage slaves (such as Government civil servants), CPI of course is something that is more commonly used and followed for annualized increases.