Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Mayday]

Ok tell that to el.salvador. CCP would rather their  people store wealth in btc or their own country?

Ah yes, very true. El Salvador opted to have the world’s most volatile currency. We can see 15%+ swings inside a day. I have Asian country customers going apeshit when they get a 10% downswing over a month. Then we have the argument that Because money flows to the top, BTC ends up at the top end of town and unless they have a plan to give it all away for free to the plebs then you’ll quickly find out the rich in El Salvador just got bitcoin for free.

I went over why we use expansionary money systems before using monopoly as an example. We charge interest. The expansion (printing) is the interest allowance and allows plebs to keep playing the game. If we don’t expand, all money ends with one player and everybody else is broke. Bitcoin doesn’t work in today’s world because the top keep what they get, just like in monopoly.

Something to ponder when some countries adopt BTC as currency.

China is a communist country. While I cannot grasp the bitcoin mania, it is easy to see why a government that wants total control over their people would be adamantly opposed to anonymous transactions.

It’s not anonymous, it’s tracked and reported. That is what regulation does. The only way to remain anonymous is to never cash out and never pay BTC to a reporting party otherwise they can see you.


China pulled out because of leverage risk across all assets. They want to distance themselves from crypto contagion.

[Griffith]

https://coinmarketcap.com/headlines/news/why-ethereum-eth-may-soon-overtake-bitcoin-btc/

Why Ethereum (ETH) May Soon Overtake Bitcoin (BTC)

Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has catapulted to mainstream adoption this bull season along with Bitcoin (BTC). It has become a growing choice of financial institutions and many including the likes of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan believe it has the potential to eventually overtake BTC as the new store of value.

Goldman Sachs has joined JP Morgan to advocate for ETH as the next store of value and suggest its smart contract capabilities along with its various use cases make it the most sought-after digital asset in the current market. The financial giant’s comment came on Tuesday where it said,

“currently looks like the cryptocurrency with the highest real use potential as Ethereum, the platform on which it is the native digital currency, is the most popular development platform for smart contract applications”

Earlier JP Morgan has lauded Ethereum’s market depth and blockchain capabilities that support smart contracts and the defi ecosystem. The banking giant also predicted the ETH 2.0 could open the gates for a $40 billion staking market.

The ETH 2.0 blockchain staking has also led to a declining ETH supply in the market which in turn has helped its demand to go further up. The evolving Defi ecosystem and several use cases have made it one of the growing choices of institutions.

[Flexacon]

This is the puppet master (Chicagos wealthiest man, net worth $16b) behind the majority of the crypto pumps and dumps in 2021

[Griffith]

https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-gears-up-for-its-upcoming-triple-halving-202107071339

Ethereum price gears up for its upcoming ‘Triple Halving'

Ethereum enthusiasts are waiting for the delayed release of the London hard fork while trading with caution. The most notable Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIP) in the upgrade is EIP 1559. This, combined with the transition to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) is considered equivalent to a “Triple Halving”.

Ethereum prepares for network upgrade

The upcoming London hard fork is a critical milestone in the Ethereum roadmap leading up to the release of ETH 2.0. It will change the protocol’s consensus algorithm from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake and restructure the monetary policy.

Currently, transaction fees are calculated by the concept of the "first-price auction.” Market participants bid a set price for miners to process their transactions and the highest bidder wins. However, this is set to change with EIP 1559.

The network update will introduce a “base fee” for transactions to be included in a block. Users who wish to prioritize their transactions will have the option to add a “tip” or “priority fee” to incentivize miners for including their transactions in the next block. The higher the tip the bigger the chances for the transaction to be processed.

EIP 1559 does not directly intend to make gas cheaper. The base fee will fluctuate by up to 12.5% after blocks are more than 50% full, which makes transaction fees predictable and transparent to prevent users from overpaying for gas.

Among other changes that result from the EIP 1559 upgrade, the most notable one is that 70% of transaction fees on the Ethereum network will be burned, meaning that this supply will be deleted from circulation. The remaining 30% will be delivered to stakers as an additional staking reward, in addition to their regular issuance.

The significant drop in Ether supply is key to drive Ethereum’s price since it makes it a deflationary asset.

Popular Ethereum Researcher Nikhil Shamapant, mentioned in his research on EIP 1559  that

While many Ethereum bulls fully understand that EIP1559 will improve Ether as a store of value, I don’t think they are modeling for the further way it affects elasticity of supply. If supply is being removed, it matters more if it’s being removed from HODlers who were already inelastic anyway or speculators who can’t sell that Ether in the future. There is no more inelastic source of supply than nonexistent supply.

The so-called Triple Halving

Given the significance of the upcoming protocol upgrade, the concept of “Ethereum Triple Halving” that started as an analogy on Crypto Twitter has evolved into an analysis of financial flows to predict what will happen to the price of Ethereum by January 2023.

Ethereum’s Triple Halving has its roots in the reduction in supply, Following a successful upgrade to EIP 1559, a drop in sell pressure is expected. Analysts believe that  a 30% reduction of circulating Ether could take place, which is about half of the effect of a single Bitcoin halving. Meanwhile, the transition to PoS might result in a supply shock equivalent to two halvings.

The much-awaited London hard fork was expected to go live this month, but after a delay, Ethereum core developer Tim Beiko proposed August 4 as the potential launch date. Other key developers will make a final decision on July 9.

While the exact date of the network update remains to be decided, US multinational investment bank Goldman Sachs is bullish on Ethereum.

“[Ether] currently looks like the cryptocurrency with the highest real use potential as Ethereum, the platform on which it is the native digital currency, is the most popular development platform for smart contract applications.”

[gib]

China is a communist country. While I cannot grasp the bitcoin mania, it is easy to see why a government that wants total control over their people would be adamantly opposed to anonymous transactions.

Not only does the CCP want greater control over Chinese people (whether inside of China or overseas), but it wants control of other parts of the world. Much easier to do this with a controlled Chinese currency which can monitor every transaction down to an individual level. Much harder to do with a decentralized currency over which China as no control of. BTC stands for freedom and individuality (which is entirely counter to, and indeed threatens, the core principles of the communist ideology).

[gib]

El Salvador opted to have the world’s most volatile currency. We can see 15%+ swings inside a day. I have Asian country customers going apeshit when they get a 10% downswing over a month. Then we have the argument that Because money flows to the top, BTC ends up at the top end of town and unless they have a plan to give it all away for free to the plebs then you’ll quickly find out the rich in El Salvador just got bitcoin for free.

Its easy to see how those privileged enough to lived in countries that have enjoyed currency stability might find the move to officially adopting BTC to be unusual. El Salvador has never had a stable monetary system, and although the USD is not a bad choice for relative stability, before BTC was adopted, they were entirely at the whims (and also under the control) of the US, and US monetary policy. Bitcoin’s fixed, long-term monetary policy, which cannot be changed, arguably provides even greater long term stability and independence (despite short term volatility). Moving from a weaker and devaluing currency to one that will over time always remain perfectly limited in supply could have huge long term advantages, especially for early adopters who can ride out the volatility until a much larger market cap is achieved. Part of the process will be the education of locals on the difference between volatility and long term fundamentals. Payment apps will likely also provide automated and seamless hedging tools.

I'm really excited to see how it all pans out. Will be some great learnings along the way on economics and human behaviour!

[OneMoreRep]

Everyone,

I was off the media and online crypto news outlets yesterday and noticed that as of this morning, BTC took a 6%+ dive which sent other alts (ETH included) down.

What happened? Simple pullback? I saw the bearish divergence ETH had yesterday that suggested a drop was probably incoming, but what tipped them all off?

"1"

[IroNat]

BTC isn’t money, only meant to be a store of wealth.

It’s ok, kind of found my answer

I thought bitcoin was a currency?

[Flexacon]

Everyone,

I was off the media and online crypto news outlets yesterday and noticed that as of this morning, BTC took a 6%+ dive which sent other alts (ETH included) down.

What happened? Simple pullback? I saw the bearish divergence ETH had yesterday that suggested a drop was probably incoming, but what tipped them all off?

"1"

Looks like a predetermined Crypto dump in anticipation of the global markets taking a hit today.

Institutions selling crypto assets to cover losses elsewhere.

[SOMEPARTS]

Looks like a predetermined Crypto dump in anticipation of the global markets taking a hit today.

Institutions selling crypto assets to cover losses elsewhere.

They added a 4th shell to the shell game to keep it going. Like I said last page, a fake asset for the fake printed money to chase.

[SOMEPARTS]

I thought bitcoin was a currency?

It's whatever keeps the pumper dudes going from day to day. It would be a currency but the get rich quick crowd is too FOMO to buy anything with it. 

[El Diablo Blanco]

The rich fucks have figured out how to manipulate the cryptos now.  Just follow the trend for the last few months.  10% dip, they buy, it goes up 10% they sell, on and on and on.  they are making 10% profit every other day. if you consider the billions they're using to do this they are making serious money each time.  We are now stuck in a purely manipulated market.

[Flexacon]

The rich fucks have figured out how to manipulate the cryptos now. Just follow the trend for the last few months.  10% dip, they buy, it goes up 10% they sell, on and on and on.  they are making 10% profit every other day. if you consider the billions they're using to do this they are making serious money each time.  We are now stuck in a purely manipulated market.

That's been the case since at least December/Jan, and probably as far back as 2018.

I believe they were looking to take BTC over 100k, but the SEC passed rules in May that handcuffed them, so we now get them playing pong between 30k and 40k

Here's the thing though (and the reason why they were handcuffed). They did it mostly using insane leverage, so didn't really need as much money to manipulate the markets as you'd imagine.

[Mayday]

Its easy to see how those privileged enough to lived in countries that have enjoyed currency stability might find the move to officially adopting BTC to be unusual. El Salvador has never had a stable monetary system, and although the USD is not a bad choice for relative stability, before BTC was adopted, they were entirely at the whims (and also under the control) of the US, and US monetary policy. Bitcoin’s fixed, long-term monetary policy, which cannot be changed, arguably provides even greater long term stability and independence (despite short term volatility). Moving from a weaker and devaluing currency to one that will over time always remain perfectly limited in supply could have huge long term advantages, especially for early adopters who can ride out the volatility until a much larger market cap is achieved. Part of the process will be the education of locals on the difference between volatility and long term fundamentals. Payment apps will likely also provide automated and seamless hedging tools.

I'm really excited to see how it all pans out. Will be some great learnings along the way on economics and human behaviour!

We have had 30%+ currency exchange rate swings here. 15% is pretty common and fuel swings daily and can be brutal to see a 10% overnight move.

I agree, those not living in UsD or EUR stable currency countries see what happens on a daily basis. If our govt said we were adopting bitcoin people would go apeshit to have something even more volatile than our peso.

There is always more to the story -
Countries with a history of unrest, corruption, bankruptcy always want to blame everything/everyone else for their own mismanagement. The leaders got BTC because they believe it’ll be worth a gazillion and their own wealth will benefit. A beach side village in El Salvadore uses crypto because they are dodging taxes. Don’t get to carried away with the ‘financial freedom’ dream message maxis dish out.

[Mayday]

It's whatever keeps the pumper dudes going from day to day.

Just like how 64k was the peak and maxis keep saying it’s a bull market.

The way it looks at the moment is the bottom BTC price will coincide with a market dummy spit like what Flex is saying.

I hope that is in 2021 but it’s more likely be in 2022 when the Fed actually does raise rates. This makes crypto a year long bear market which also marries up with it’s history post ATH peak.

[SOMEPARTS]

I hope that is in 2021 but it’s more likely be in 2022 when the Fed actually does raise rates.

 
That would be an extra special recession trigger, but wash, rinse, repeat...how many times do we have to see the Fed do things that benefit the 1%?

I doubt rates will significantly rise as they did with Trump but if so consumers get slaughtered for buying 0% and 0 down with no jobs.

I'm in cash waiting for cheap real stuff to buy. No casinos for me.

[gib]

We have had 30%+ currency exchange rate swings here. 15% is pretty common and fuel swings daily and can be brutal to see a 10% overnight move.

I agree, those not living in UsD or EUR stable currency countries see what happens on a daily basis. If our govt said we were adopting bitcoin people would go apeshit to have something even more volatile than our peso.

There is always more to the story -
Countries with a history of unrest, corruption, bankruptcy always want to blame everything/everyone else for their own mismanagement. The leaders got BTC because they believe it’ll be worth a gazillion and their own wealth will benefit. A beach side village in El Salvadore uses crypto because they are dodging taxes. Don’t get to carried away with the ‘financial freedom’ dream message maxis dish out.

Lets not forget the main reason (and benefit) of the adoption of BTC. Its initial primary benefit will be the facilitation of zero friction foreign remittances via lightening network, with BTC as a base layer (instantly convertible to  USDT, in any proportion they wish). So they can avoid all BTC to USD volatility if they wish. Or they can allocate and cash in/out as they wish. So now they have access to a banking system, without the need for a bank as an intermediary, both for savings, spending, and remittance.

[Theoak*]

Lets not forget the main reason (and benefit) of the adoption of BTC. Its initial primary benefit will be the facilitation of zero friction foreign remittances via lightening network, with BTC as a base layer (instantly convertible to  USDT, in any proportion they wish). So they can avoid all BTC to USD volatility if they wish. Or they can allocate and cash in/out as they wish. So now they have access to a banking system, without the need for a bank as an intermediary, both for savings, spending, and remittance.

El Salvadorians in USA send 10billion back to their home country every year. 1 billion of that is in remittances.  BTC on the lightning network via strike wipes remittances to virtually nothing.   

[Mayday]

That would be an extra special recession trigger, but wash, rinse, repeat...how many times do we have to see the Fed do things that benefit the 1%?

I doubt rates will significantly rise as they did with Trump but if so consumers get slaughtered for buying 0% and 0 down with no jobs.

I'm in cash waiting for cheap real stuff to buy. No casinos for me.

From memory the Fed said 2 rate rises before the end of 2023 and one of those will happen in 2022. They won’t be big but with growing debt value you require lower rate adjustment because the values are so large. 0.1% rise today is probably like 0.25% in 2017.

There is always a deflationary event in order to justify an inflationary policy.

Right now, the data coming back to the US says the Economy is doing awesome, salaries are up (including stimmy), jobs shortages, property up, sharemarket up. There is no justification to keep pumping in trillions when things look great because inflation is beginning to blow up (5%+).

Hence the taper talk to warn the market to back off the leverage and make inflation go away for a while. If the market doesn’t back off, they’ll send stronger messages and then eventually have no choice but to raise rates and force the sell off.

CPI comes out on 13th July. April was 4.4% May was 5% so if June result goes higher it will mean likely action from the Fed to pullback on QE or raise rates early. In which case expect the market to freak out as they close positions.


Buy a high end car. I tried to convince my wife to get a low km used Mercedes AMG GT or Audi R8, drive daily, sell as high km car for sale price 2yrs later. It sounds crazy but because you can pickup one with sub 10,000kms you can easily sell for 50,000kms later on. Prices on these cars have gone up significantly here.

[Mayday]

Lets not forget the main reason (and benefit) of the adoption of BTC. Its initial primary benefit will be the facilitation of zero friction foreign remittances via lightening network, with BTC as a base layer (instantly convertible to  USDT, in any proportion they wish). So they can avoid all BTC to USD volatility if they wish. Or they can allocate and cash in/out as they wish. So now they have access to a banking system, without the need for a bank as an intermediary, both for savings, spending, and remittance.

It’s a good way around sanctions so I’d like to see how those countries decide to use that freedom. Do they use it for corruption or do they use it to develop their country and people?

Crypto will cause enormous pain for the banking system and I’d expect we are going to see huge crashes in crypto ahead as those events play out.

[SOMEPARTS]

From memory the Fed said 2 rate rises before the end of 2023 and one of those will happen in 2022. They won’t be big but with growing debt value you require lower rate adjustment because the values are so large. 0.1% rise today is probably like 0.25% in 2017.

There is always a deflationary event in order to justify an inflationary policy.

Right now, the data coming back to the US says the Economy is doing awesome, salaries are up (including stimmy), jobs shortages, property up, sharemarket up. There is no justification to keep pumping in trillions when things look great because inflation is beginning to blow up (5%+).

Hence the taper talk to warn the market to back off the leverage and make inflation go away for a while. If the market doesn’t back off, they’ll send stronger messages and then eventually have no choice but to raise rates and force the sell off.

CPI comes out on 13th July. April was 4.4% May was 5% so if June result goes higher it will mean likely action from the Fed to pullback on QE or raise rates early. In which case expect the market to freak out as they close positions.


Buy a high end car. I tried to convince my wife to get a low km used Mercedes AMG GT or Audi R8, drive daily, sell as high km car for sale price 2yrs later. It sounds crazy but because you can pickup one with sub 10,000kms you can easily sell for 50,000kms later on. Prices on these cars have gone up significantly here.

The metrics are a joke, counting stimulus as a plus on the ledger is at the top of that. When actual bad news comes they deflect and change the way it is measured...anything to avoid not being in a "bull" market. They just sent helicopter money to paper over everything, things should be incredible and prices should go up just due to the easy money out there chasing the same goods. Predictably the people that got the checks didn't spend it on rent and student loans when they didn't have to...they shopped...a demand side lab exoeriment. The cheap labor market is short due to stimmy...most of those jobs were equal or less than the stimmy checks and the small businesses that went out under covid have not truly been figured in yet. What I'm saying is there are no fundamentals to raise rates to equal inflation rate IMO, and if they can't do that they will have to print more and ZIRP because what else is there unless we are admitting that dollar inflation itself is creating value? It's obvious they plan to run the train to the end of the tracks. That means the markets, housing, cars and everything else continue to go up until they don't. When? Wish I knew. As this all relates to crypto what they are doing with the dollar is probably what you would do if you knew monetary reset/one world money was imminent. It won't be BTC though.

[polychronopolous]

El Salvadorians in USA send 10billion back to their home country every year. 1 billion of that is in remittances.  BTC on the lightning network via strike wipes remittances to virtually nothing.

Wait a second..but I thought Bitcoin was "too slow" and "old technology" and would do nothing to "disrupt the banks" 

Tell these El Salvadorians to get their asses back in line at Western Union and let that company get their slice!!

[polychronopolous]

Bitcoin Mining Saves Oldest Hydro Power Station in the US


The age-old Mechanicville hydro plant built-in 1897, became a legendary milestone in the history of sustainable energy after starting Bitcoin mining. The hydro plant was inactive for a while now due to old machinery. After generous input of time, money, and other resources, the plant is officially in a condition to function.

Mechanicville hydro plant has decided to partially fuel bitcoin mining to cover its losses and give back to the economy with sustainable crypto generation.

“We can make more money with bitcoin than selling the electricity to National Grid,”, Jim Besha Sr., CEO of Mechanicville hydroelectric station, told Times-Union.

Albany Engineering Corp., Mechanicville hydro plant’s parent company which is also owned by Besha, earned a total of 3 cents per kilowatt-hour when it sold energy to National Grid. Whereas, mining the decentralized bitcoin, gives them thrice the profit.


Besha has made it clear that the hydropower plant guarantees no loyalty to the crypto community due to the volatile nature of the decentralized currency. Besha sells 1/1000 bitcoins every week maintains liquidity in his accounts. He aimed to sell sustainable energy to organizations that would further use it as energy instead of producing something else out of that electricity. But for now, Besha is content in his deal with bitcoin miners.

“It’s the best (type of bitcoin mining) because we’re using renewable energy…We’re just doing it on the side, experimenting with it. We’re buying used servers.”, Besha told Times-Union.

https://coingape.com/bitcoin-mining-saves-oldest-hydro-power-station-in-the-us/

[Theoak*]

Bitcoin Mining Saves Oldest Hydro Power Station in the US


The age-old Mechanicville hydro plant built-in 1897, became a legendary milestone in the history of sustainable energy after starting Bitcoin mining. The hydro plant was inactive for a while now due to old machinery. After generous input of time, money, and other resources, the plant is officially in a condition to function.

Mechanicville hydro plant has decided to partially fuel bitcoin mining to cover its losses and give back to the economy with sustainable crypto generation.

“We can make more money with bitcoin than selling the electricity to National Grid,”, Jim Besha Sr., CEO of Mechanicville hydroelectric station, told Times-Union.

Albany Engineering Corp., Mechanicville hydro plant’s parent company which is also owned by Besha, earned a total of 3 cents per kilowatt-hour when it sold energy to National Grid. Whereas, mining the decentralized bitcoin, gives them thrice the profit.


Besha has made it clear that the hydropower plant guarantees no loyalty to the crypto community due to the volatile nature of the decentralized currency. Besha sells 1/1000 bitcoins every week maintains liquidity in his accounts. He aimed to sell sustainable energy to organizations that would further use it as energy instead of producing something else out of that electricity. But for now, Besha is content in his deal with bitcoin miners.

“It’s the best (type of bitcoin mining) because we’re using renewable energy…We’re just doing it on the side, experimenting with it. We’re buying used servers.”, Besha told Times-Union.

https://coingape.com/bitcoin-mining-saves-oldest-hydro-power-station-in-the-us/

Bitcoin energy use will revolutionize renewable energy, and support the creation of new energy sources in places that would not have had them without bitcoin providing a base use with value.  Bitcoin is going to make the earth greener faster than just about any technology we have ever seen before.

And that is just a side effect of the real freedom it brings. Bitcoin is more important than even we have understood.

[Mayday]

What I'm saying is there are no fundamentals to raise rates to equal inflation rate IMO, and if they can't do that they will have to print more and ZIRP because what else is there unless we are admitting that dollar inflation itself is creating value? It's obvious they plan to run the train to the end of the tracks. That means the markets, housing, cars and everything else continue to go up until they don't. When? Wish I knew. As this all relates to crypto what they are doing with the dollar is probably what you would do if you knew monetary reset/one world money was imminent. It won't be BTC though.

I just wrote an awesome response but it’s miles to big so I deleted and will keep it simple.

The Fed doesn’t want the values to fly up, they want the leverage to come down and values to go up very slowly.

the fundamental behind raising rates is to force the market to reduce leverage/risk.

Hence why the CPI data in July is very important. The Fed wants 2%-3% and we have 5%. If it goes up in The next report it signals to the market to expect Fed interaction earlier than expected. The Fed isn’t going to allow 5%+ go unchecked right now.

Short term —> Jul-Aug-Sep are keys months and you will need to be watching CPI.