https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/10/fed-is-expected-to-speed-up-end-of-bond-buying-and-signal-interest-rate-hikes-are-coming.html
Fed is expected to speed up end of bond buying and signal interest rate hikes are coming
The economy is growing strongly and inflation pressures continue to build. The Fed is alive to the risks and is set to announce that the QE program will end in February. This then paves the way for earlier and swifter interest rate hikes, Omicron permitting, with the Fed dot plot set to point to a minimum of two moves in 2022
I’ll add to this as pondering last night, is it the stimmy money big players are waiting for and we can’t get that until we have a deflationary event.
Cliffs:
Stimmy money drove the retail FOMO from Dec-May
No retail FOMO this month and no stimmy money
Institutions are entering Jan-Feb
CPI entering levels where a rate hike is imminent. 6.8% today is 15% in 1970s which is the highest ever.
Rate hike by June 2022 is expected meaning prior to this, no stimmy money
June Rate hike causes deflationary sell off, economy turns to shit, stimmy money approved and we then have retail funded to the tits to enter stocks and crypto —> estimate December 2022-March 2023
Retail FOMO runs require retail to have cash to chuck at stocks and crypto.
April 2020 was the first stimmy money
December 2020 was the second stimmy money and we saw a 2 week stint where price doubled and people aped in hard with stimmy.
March 2021 was the third stimmy money and we saw the peak followed by April/May attempts….. no more stimmy money came and big players nuked the market.
Everyone expected retail FOMO this month. We have no stimmy money. Bitcoin maxis have tried to pump and all we saw was a 1.8B in 1 hour nuke of existing traders, not retail. We can’t see retail entering at all right now and all we see is big players and funds looking to enter in Jan-Feb when the calendar year begins but they won’t FOMO, they will crab the fuck out of the market.
