Author Topic: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!  (Read 1129490 times)

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8575 on: May 07, 2022, 08:34:24 PM »
I’d say this is a pretty solid piece of evidence that we’re headed for a bumpy ride:

Food and electricity holding up well.

New houses and shit you don’t need doing badly:

The wind down movement started in December 2021 pretty much but the supply/demand data now is suggesting it’s close to a bottom. DXY is also back at highs without a policy shift in spending so I’d assume at this point the odds are a further sell off happens.

Wants that you want are thin on inventory. We’ll be utterly fucked by Christmas.

As for BTC…..

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8576 on: May 08, 2022, 06:19:42 PM »
You see, 33.8k and BTC dominance at lows is a big problem mmmmkay.

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8577 on: May 09, 2022, 10:54:17 AM »
Shit is indeed hitting the fan! Can't even start averaging down yet as gbp is so weak right now.

Vix doing me a solid though

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8578 on: May 09, 2022, 11:35:35 AM »
I’ll stand behind this statement:


Looks like traders and hedge funds piled into oil and got worked. They deserve it. It’s a stupid strategy to try to chase returns at a time like this. Instead of thinking about how to make money your top priority should be how to not lose it. Cash is the place to be.

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8579 on: May 09, 2022, 11:44:07 AM »
Amazon continuing the trend of companies getting hit on earnings and continuing to tank afterwards:

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8580 on: May 09, 2022, 12:49:57 PM »
BTC 30.8k but dominance barely moved at 41.8%. BTCETH also barely moved at 0.073.

The sell off looks pretty savage on the 4hr.

Waiting for 28.8k target which is previous bottom.

Capitulation move in full is generally -50%. This started from 38k which gives us a target of 19k.

ETHBtC needs to sell off to 0.055 then rug pull to 0.03

 

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8581 on: May 09, 2022, 02:03:32 PM »
BTC 30.8k but dominance barely moved at 41.8%. BTCETH also barely moved at 0.073.

The sell off looks pretty savage on the 4hr.

Waiting for 28.8k target which is previous bottom.

Capitulation move in full is generally -50%. This started from 38k which gives us a target of 19k.

ETHBtC needs to sell off to 0.055 then rug pull to 0.03
ETH circulating supply is around 120 million
BTC circulating supply is around 19 million

There's 6.3 times more ETH in supply than Bitcoin

1/6.3 = 0.16 rounded off

0.073 ETH is undervalued against BTC in my opinion. To be honest ETH should be at $5,000 right now if only the supply of ETH vs BTC is looked at. ETH has other benefits like staking which provides incentives to hold. The ETH merge narrative, all the use cases, network effect, the potential deflation in the horizon, and the reduced energy consumption in the switch to POS.

Interesting that ZEC has the same max supply cap as BTC at 21 million.

I personally hold zero BTC. It's not interesting to me. Dorsey claims ETH is not interesting to him because it has many single points of failure. First he never really gave examples. BTC's weakness to me is the high energy consumption and the question about what will secure the network once the last bit of BTC has been mined. As a store of value the slow transaction speed is not an issue with BTC IMO.


El Diablo Blanco

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8582 on: May 09, 2022, 02:18:12 PM »
Why are people shocked that crypto and stocks are down? Guess what? People aren’t getting free money. No more extra $2400 a month for a lazy ass unemployed blob.   No more billions given out fraudulently to who knows.   The country was fleeced for trillions and a lot of people were throwing money at crypto and stocks creating huge inflated numbers.   Now they’re coming back to earth since people aren’t flush with free cash anymore.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8583 on: May 09, 2022, 02:23:03 PM »
Why are people shocked that crypto and stocks are down? Guess what? People aren’t getting free money. No more extra $2400 a month for a lazy ass unemployed blob.   No more billions given out fraudulently to who knows.   The country was fleeced for trillions and a lot of people were throwing money at crypto and stocks creating huge inflated numbers.   Now they’re coming back to earth since people aren’t flush with free cash anymore.
Nobody is shocked. Literally everyone is screaming the sky is falling. I don't care. I am holding my crypto bags down to zero if need be. Some of my crypto is staked and locked up.

I'll buy more if cryptos crash down a lot. Need to get some cash ready for that.

Vince G, CSN MFT

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8584 on: May 09, 2022, 02:33:01 PM »
where is venom vodoo vince to explain all of this "finance" stuff to us?
.
Just wanted to remind you guys making fun of me back then
A

Theoak*

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8585 on: May 09, 2022, 06:18:28 PM »
ETH circulating supply is around 120 million
BTC circulating supply is around 19 million

There's 6.3 times more ETH in supply than Bitcoin

1/6.3 = 0.16 rounded off

0.073 ETH is undervalued against BTC in my opinion. To be honest ETH should be at $5,000 right now if only the supply of ETH vs BTC is looked at. ETH has other benefits like staking which provides incentives to hold. The ETH merge narrative, all the use cases, network effect, the potential deflation in the horizon, and the reduced energy consumption in the switch to POS.

Interesting that ZEC has the same max supply cap as BTC at 21 million.

I personally hold zero BTC. It's not interesting to me. Dorsey claims ETH is not interesting to him because it has many single points of failure. First he never really gave examples. BTC's weakness to me is the high energy consumption and the question about what will secure the network once the last bit of BTC has been mined. As a store of value the slow transaction speed is not an issue with BTC IMO.

World requires 160000TW energyper year to run. Total btc network runs off 200TW per year

USA alone runs off 10000TW per year, 6000 of that is wasted.


Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8586 on: May 09, 2022, 07:37:58 PM »
Yeah I think BTC will win the energy FUD battle (still rather hold ETH and just bought more)

The internet in the 90s had the same energy FUD about it too.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8587 on: May 09, 2022, 11:04:38 PM »
ETH circulating supply is around 120 million
BTC circulating supply is around 19 million

There's 6.3 times more ETH in supply than Bitcoin

1/6.3 = 0.16 rounded off

0.073 ETH is undervalued against BTC in my opinion. To be honest ETH should be at $5,000 right now if only the supply of ETH vs BTC is looked at. ETH has other benefits like staking which provides incentives to hold. The ETH merge narrative, all the use cases, network effect, the potential deflation in the horizon, and the reduced energy consumption in the switch to POS.

Interesting that ZEC has the same max supply cap as BTC at 21 million.

Pricing is belief first THEN supply/demand based.

Funny that I got slammed on Twitter for daring to disagree with that PlanB guy when I argued on chain won’t work because the value is derived from belief first and not supply/demand determined.

Now we have less coins on exchanges as peak yet price is 60% down…. Some dude even gave me the ‘I’m a scientist so I just follow the data and it clearly says BTC supply shortage’…..


obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8588 on: May 10, 2022, 02:29:50 AM »
Pricing is belief first THEN supply/demand based.

Funny that I got slammed on Twitter for daring to disagree with that PlanB guy when I argued on chain won’t work because the value is derived from belief first and not supply/demand determined.

Now we have less coins on exchanges as peak yet price is 60% down…. Some dude even gave me the ‘I’m a scientist so I just follow the data and it clearly says BTC supply shortage’…..
Raoul Pal looks at the network effect and how many people are using it and thinks there is a direct correlation between the network effect and the value of an asset. I think he is on to something. There's a lot more activity on Ethereum than Bitcoin. I get it Bitcoin is a store of value and not trying to do all these fancy things. Well I guess the likes of Dorsey are trying to do DEFI with Bitcoin. I still maintain 1 ETH should at the very least be 1/6th the value of BTC. And if the supply of ETH shrinks than even more.

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/jack-dorsey-to-launch-a-defi-product-on-bitcoin-after-changes-for-smart-contracts-in-taproot-update-was-presented

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8589 on: May 10, 2022, 02:35:50 AM »
World requires 160000TW energyper year to run. Total btc network runs off 200TW per year

USA alone runs off 10000TW per year, 6000 of that is wasted.
That 200 TW per year is only going to increase. All this power that is wasted - is Bitcoin mining tapping into that? Or tapping into sources where there is a scarcity of power? Also peak demand varies depending on the time of day. A certain segment of the world will need more power during the day when cooling is needed or most people are awake. So Bitcoin mining might use wasted energy in the evening and in the daytime stress the grid.

But what's a better narrative? A Proof of Stake layer 1 that uses a fraction of the energy or a Proof of Work layer 1 like Bitcoin that requires a lot of constant power draw to sustain the network? It remains to be seen how secure POS vs POW is. There are proponents on both sides of the argument.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8590 on: May 10, 2022, 03:59:15 AM »
That 200 TW per year is only going to increase. All this power that is wasted - is Bitcoin mining tapping into that? Or tapping into sources where there is a scarcity of power? Also peak demand varies depending on the time of day. A certain segment of the world will need more power during the day when cooling is needed or most people are awake. So Bitcoin mining might use wasted energy in the evening and in the daytime stress the grid.

But what's a better narrative? A Proof of Stake layer 1 that uses a fraction of the energy or a Proof of Work layer 1 like Bitcoin that requires a lot of constant power draw to sustain the network? It remains to be seen how secure POS vs POW is. There are proponents on both sides of the argument.


If you're going to disrupt the legacy system be prepared for them to come after you. Remember email first came out. US government and postmaster general said the most effecient and secure  way to send information was via US mail not email. Email needs servers that requires lots of energy and is going to destroy the planet. They actually went to court wanting to stop emails because  per email burnt 10pounds of coal! They wanted to implement an email stamp tax!

Same thing with the internet, those who had a monopoly on information used the same excuse, requires servers too much energy every 5 megabytes of information burned a pound of coal. They tried to shut off the internet and email using falsified energy argument.


So you  basically have btc running on 200tw hours of energy compared to global energy consumption of 160,000tw hours. BTC uses .00018%. It's a rounding error, see what they're doing?  So saying btc uses more energy than a small country is a marketing ploy and outright lie. WEF said in 2017 that by 2020 btc will consume all the world's energy....not a lot, literally said all the world's energy. It's horseshit scaremongering.

Unlike traditional legacy systems which you  cant turn off the grid without severe ramifications, they all have fail safes , generators and all sorts of stuff so they don't go off-line. Bitcoin miners don't care if they go off-line, they have what you call a "flexible load" . If there is an emergency you can shut them off first. They can give power back to the grid which means bitcoin miners are the first line of defence. So having a bitcoin mining facility makes your grid stronger than any other because the bitcoin miners will be first to turn off. Then flick a switch and turn right  back on within several minutes without  a hiccup or damage to equipment.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8591 on: May 10, 2022, 04:40:16 AM »
Raoul Pal looks at the network effect and how many people are using it and thinks there is a direct correlation between the network effect and the value of an asset. I think he is on to something. There's a lot more activity on Ethereum than Bitcoin. I get it Bitcoin is a store of value and not trying to do all these fancy things. Well I guess the likes of Dorsey are trying to do DEFI with Bitcoin. I still maintain 1 ETH should at the very least be 1/6th the value of BTC. And if the supply of ETH shrinks than even more.

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/jack-dorsey-to-launch-a-defi-product-on-bitcoin-after-changes-for-smart-contracts-in-taproot-update-was-presented

I like Raoul a lot on his economic stuff but he really fucks around on crypto whether on purpose or not I’m not sure.

The network stopped growing back in March 2021 but does he say anything? Not really. All of these narratives work until they don’t.

I like ETH more than BTC. It’s ts looking more like BTC is tapping out and everyone is late, not early. The BTC dominance got crushed this last run and will happen next run meaning less headroom for BTC. Also means less retail FOMO on BTC and more on alts.

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8592 on: May 10, 2022, 05:11:06 AM »
Cash is the place to be. Has been since the start of the year and will be the case until there’s a shift in the trend.

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8593 on: May 10, 2022, 05:12:14 AM »
Then again, you can buy some Peloton. It on sale, right?😂😂

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8594 on: May 10, 2022, 05:13:23 AM »
😂

OneMoreRep

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8595 on: May 10, 2022, 05:36:37 AM »
For the new guys that aren't finance savvy, much of this drop in the markets and crypto ecosystem is due to numerous hedge funds having to liquidate. This in turns causes sell offs which are driving prices down aggressively.

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a_pupil

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8596 on: May 10, 2022, 06:27:02 AM »
Do you guys think the tactic for the average Joe of holding your money in an index fund changes in this kind of a market?

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8597 on: May 10, 2022, 06:40:48 AM »
Do you guys think the tactic for the average Joe of holding your money in an index fund changes in this kind of a market?

I don't think so.

This particular period in time will seem grim for some people, but short of you being of retirement age and having to collect distributions on your pensions or needing to cash out your index funds, you should be ok if you wait it out and continue to dollar cost average in. I wouldn't go crazy buying shit on discount, because it's hard (almost impossible) to determine what the bottom will be. Dollar cost averaging should allow you to benefit during these times without losing too much money.

These things happen every so often and we've seen them occur under different disguises. The key to remember is that we saw similar in 1999, 2001, 2008 and 2020 and then we turned the corner and recovered.

"1"

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8598 on: May 10, 2022, 01:23:59 PM »

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8599 on: May 10, 2022, 04:12:46 PM »
Cash is the place to be. Has been since the start of the year and will be the case until there’s a shift in the trend.

Made an FX play start of year and parked my Ozzie pesos in USD waiting for the sell off to cause the DXY to rise. Up 5.4%. Hooray for me.

I wouldn’t be sure about some of these stocks that took a hit getting a leg up in the next run. The big names, sure. So Amazon, Google, Meta etc they’ll all let up because who else you gunna buy?

BTC suckering in people left right and centre. 30k then up almost 10% then straight back down in the one day. Crazy shit.

The clip with Raoul Pal came out while in air UST depegged because of Luna. This is what I mean about him fucking around with crypto and now, his bad calls are on purpose because he knew all the details and then some…. After the fact. He says oh yeah they liquidated 500M and someone else is liquidating 500M Bitcoin and LFG has 1B then goes onto say how good the idea of a stable coin pegged digitally was and he hope it survives this test……

his fucking business partner is one of the decision makes for Luna lol. There was no debt. There wasn’t any margin calls, they decided to dump everything and take the 500M cash lol. He Hope’s it survives the test…. Oh you mean the test involving where your business partner rug pulls the coin and smashes all the poor plebs he lured in and runs off with half a bill lol?