Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Flexacon]

BTC is a brutal 1 year chart to look at. Keep staring at it hoping it returns.

Some old biddy gave the best explanation of bull market dynamics I've come across. I'm not as confident of a 2023 date as her though.

"Whales (professional traders) act as market makers on "self-regulated" crypto exchanges, and pay no fees to these exchanges and  do not want to trade against each other (which is why such trades are called "toxic flow").

These market makers run ultra-HF algos that can perform trades (like "layering" and "spoofing") that are illegal on ordinary exchanges.

In 2023 the algos will be configured to manage a bitcoin bull run. Why?

Well, how else will they draw retail traders like you and me (who are now very scared) back to trading crypto?

Both market makers and exchanges need retail investors to come back. Exchanges need their fee income (market makers pay no fees), and for market makers it is because when their algos are equally good (i.e. not Alameda's) they have only a 50-50 change of winning a trade.

But retail investors who take risky, leveraged positions are very likely to be wiped out

[SOMEPARTS]

Some old biddy gave the best explanation of bull market dynamics I've come across. I'm not as confident of a 2023 date as her though.

"Whales (professional traders) act as market makers on "self-regulated" crypto exchanges, and pay no fees to these exchanges and  do not want to trade against each other (which is why such trades are called "toxic flow").

These market makers run ultra-HF algos that can perform trades (like "layering" and "spoofing") that are illegal on ordinary exchanges.

In 2023 the algos will be configured to manage a bitcoin bull run. Why?

Well, how else will they draw retail traders like you and me (who are now very scared) back to trading crypto?

Both market makers and exchanges need retail investors to come back. Exchanges need their fee income (market makers pay no fees), and for market makers it is because when their algos are equally good (i.e. not Alameda's) they have only a 50-50 change of winning a trade.

But retail investors who take risky, leveraged positions are very likely to be wiped out

Former retail investors AKA dumb money have been wiped out already.

I have a cousin who is a plumber who bought 100k BTC at 63k and was sure he was not going to have to work.

You think he's coming back? LOL

Mailbox money AKA stimmy is over, people are going to have to spend their own money now. The next two years are going to be screws turning on both Joe Six Pack and underemployed Bernie Bro types. Where is this capital inflow coming from?

[Flexacon]

Former retail investors AKA dumb money have been wiped out already.

Have they? Plenty waiting on the sideline to buy back in

I have a cousin who is a plumber who bought 100k BTC at 63k and was sure he was not going to have to work.

You think he's coming back? LOL

Yes. He'll probably buy back in again near the top of the next run because of fomo.

Mailbox money AKA stimmy is over, people are going to have to spend their own money now. The next two years are going to be screws turning on both Joe Six Pack and underemployed Bernie Bro types. Where is this capital inflow coming from?

You either didn't read or understand the post. It actually made the case for why capital inflow isn't needed to send the price up. The price is manipulated up to entice dumb money back in, not the other way around. Anyway you do know stimmy was mostly a US phenomenon. The rest of the world did not get stimmy cheques. Stimmy didn't send crypto up in 2019, 2017 or 2013.

[Mayday]

Makes sense Flex.

The story goes those people decide on an indicator then paint the data according to that indicator so it looks like it’s working, then rug pull.

People forget it was crypto which ran up in price before everything else out of the pandemic. It was clearly very easy to hype up.

[Theoak*]

Some old biddy gave the best explanation of bull market dynamics I've come across. I'm not as confident of a 2023 date as her though.

"Whales (professional traders) act as market makers on "self-regulated" crypto exchanges, and pay no fees to these exchanges and  do not want to trade against each other (which is why such trades are called "toxic flow").

These market makers run ultra-HF algos that can perform trades (like "layering" and "spoofing") that are illegal on ordinary exchanges.

In 2023 the algos will be configured to manage a bitcoin bull run. Why?

Well, how else will they draw retail traders like you and me (who are now very scared) back to trading crypto?

Both market makers and exchanges need retail investors to come back. Exchanges need their fee income (market makers pay no fees), and for market makers it is because when their algos are equally good (i.e. not Alameda's) they have only a 50-50 change of winning a trade.

But retail investors who take risky, leveraged positions are very likely to be wiped out

Yes, the regulators dropped the ball on this one and allowed crooks in wall St to say fuck it let's start offshore exchanges and offer  contracts 125 to 1 leverage.

We saw it with FTX selling btc It didn't have and even at 99% house odds the idiots still managed to blow themselves up.

Where onshore exchanges were offering 2.5 to 1 odds, just goes to show you how far out of wack things were.

The real question is when do we see a short squeeze in btc at which point it makes no sense for retail to not let go of any btc? 5, 10 even 20 years from now?

2018 there was something like 3.6 million btc on the exchanges. 2022 I believe that value is now 2.1 million? With the halving approaching next year 900btc mined a day becomes 450.

There is definitely money waiting on the sidelines for regulatory  clarity, maybe we don't see that clarity until 2025.

As for the plumber, that guy will be back degening into the next animal coin to try make 100x. As long as greed and fear remain in the human psyche then the market will be rife with gamblers.

[SOMEPARTS]

Coinbase fires 20% and their CEO says dark times are coming.

Y'all keep on hoping.

Saying that manipulation is needed more than smart money is hilarious.


https://www.coinbase.com/blog/a-message-from-ceo-and-co-founder-brian-armstrong-to-coinbase-employees

[Flexacon]

Coinbase fires 20% and their CEO says dark times are coming.

Y'all keep on hoping.

Saying that manipulation is needed more than smart money is hilarious.


https://www.coinbase.com/blog/a-message-from-ceo-and-co-founder-brian-armstrong-to-coinbase-employees

What's hilarious is that you waited 4 days to respond and don't even address how you clearly failed to understand the posts on the last page. Instead you came back with a coinbase blog update thinking your telling us new news.

Maybe it is new news to you, but I basically posted the same thing that's in the blog 5 days ago.

Contagion unwinding and it's far from over.

Wyre has shutdown
Gemini earn is in a $1b hole
DCG is in a massive hole
Anything Barry Silbert touched looks fucked
Justin Sun has stopped paying staff in fiat.
Crypto.com, Binance and tether are looking sketchier than ever
Saylor looking like a huge degen using debt to buy BTC. A margin call can't be far away
Coinbase runway evaporating

I look forward to your response in another 4 days time

[SOMEPARTS]

Yeah, here's the thing right - I'm not paying much attention to a completely flawed ponzi.

I prefer to laugh about it, because the bad news keeps piling up around the true believers...a bit of schadenfreude.

[Flexacon]

Yeah, here's the thing right - I'm not paying much attention to a completely flawed ponzi.

I prefer to laugh about it, because the bad news keeps piling up around the true believers...a bit of schadenfreude.

I laugh at people who laugh about it, simply because I was once one them. But trying to understand the dynamics behind a "flawed ponzi" and the psychology around it had me laughing all the way to the bank. Best thing I ever done!

True believers (most have left this thread)  obviously aren't sitting comfortable with the current price, but they are in it for the long haul. They want all the fraudsters who used tradfi rails to enrich themselves through crypto to get washed out. They want all the crap coins gone. Their thesis isn't price based, it's time based, so the bad news isn't gonna change their beliefs.

Others who are more price sensitive are hoping for forced sell offs to drop the floor price. Bad news resulting in forced selling is exactly what they want.

You may soon hear " bad news" that Ripple lost a case against the SEC and that it's over for "crypto" as it will all get regulated and tokens listed as securities. If you decide to post it here just know that true believers (bitcoin maxis) and people waiting for forced selling couldn't be happier.

[Theoak*]

Pretty sure Gib is dead, there is no reason why he wouldn't return back to this thread or board.

[Mayday]

Pretty sure Gib is dead, there is no reason why he wouldn't return back to this thread or board.

Gib was cool. Even the other dude was good fun.

We had gib who was certain Bitcoin was the new world currency at any moment. Then the other bloke who was certain the USD was collapsing at any moment and was busy buying ammo.

Now most calling for the end of everything and a total collapse. Nein!

Anyhoo at least this pump might get me back to break even lol.

[Thin Lizzy]

Gib was cool. Even the other dude was good fun.

We had gib who was certain Bitcoin was the new world currency at any moment. Then the other bloke who was certain the USD was collapsing at any moment and was busy buying ammo.

Now most calling for the end of everything and a total collapse. Nein!

Anyhoo at least this pump might get me back to break even lol.

The record of forecasters is very poor. For all the endless talking about data points and earth shattering events and the Fed, the market is exactly where it was in mid May, 8 months ago. The reality is that most of the time the market goes nowhere. That’s why most options expire worthless. Insiders know this. That’s why all of the shit you see on Financial News is designed to get us to overtrade.

[Flexacon]

The record of forecasters is very poor. For all the endless talking about data points and earth shattering events and the Fed, the market is exactly where it was in mid May, 8 months ago. The reality is that most of the time the market goes nowhere. That’s why most options expire worthless. Insiders know this. That’s why all of the shit you see on Financial News is designed to get us to overtrade.

Not on getbig. I called the October 2022 bottom 2 weeks prior and rally up. Killed it!

Markets don't look like they've even hit the next resistance level yet let alone broken it. Looked like a lot of puts closed tonight but plenty more to go. I'm favouring hitting resistance next week, more puts closing and markets bouncing mid to late October. Still a bear market though.

[Thin Lizzy]

Not on getbig. I called the October 2022 bottom 2 weeks prior and rally up. Killed it!

That’s a good short term call based on current conditions at the time. I’m talking about people making six months and year end  predictions now. The problem with these is that there are too many unknown variables that can have a large influence on prices.

You can go back to 2008. Nobody called the crash at the start of the year.

[Thin Lizzy]

I saw this fucking guy on TV today:



https://www.kiplinger.com/article/business/t019-c000-s002-my-forecast-for-2008.html


Jeremy J. Siegel

Contributing Columnist, Kiplinger's Personal Finance
Siegel is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School and the author of "Stocks For The Long Run" and "The Future For Investors."


Prospects for stocks. Shares should have a good year, returning 8% to 10%. Stocks will rise as economic growth picks up in the year's second half and head winds from the credit crisis ease. Earnings will take a hit in the first quarter of 2008, but profits will begin to recover by the second quarter. Stocks are reasonably valued, even when priced against poor earnings. Jeremy J. Siegel

[Mayday]

That’s a good short term call based on current conditions at the time. I’m talking about people making six months and year end  predictions now. The problem with these is that there are too many unknown variables that can have a large influence on prices.

You can go back to 2008. Nobody called the crash at the start of the year.

the only things I got right was money supply, property and inflation. The rest I’m fucking useless 😂

I bought my crypto back when I thought the bottom was in. I was in profit for 3 or 4 months and it looked good until it legged down to 15.5k. I’m very close to break even now though and my outlook is 2025.

[Thin Lizzy]

the only things I got right was money supply, property and inflation. The rest I’m fucking useless 😂

I bought my crypto back when I thought the bottom was in. I was in profit for 3 or 4 months and it looked good until it legged down to 15.5k. I’m very close to break even now though and my outlook is 2025.

What’s so frustrating about attempting to forecast is that you can get the prediction right but the price still doesn’t go your way. It makes perfect sense that if central banks print trillions of dollars, gold should go through the roof but it’s been flat as fuck the entire time.🤔

[delon]

That’s a good short term call based on current conditions at the time. I’m talking about people making six months and year end  predictions now. The problem with these is that there are too many unknown variables that can have a large influence on prices.

You can go back to 2008. Nobody called the crash at the start of the year.

Or if they did predict seismic market changes it also holds true that more often than not - through a combination of true conviction, personality-type,confirmation bias and then morphing and merging into something approaching their 'brand' - they have a tendency to take that same outlook/position (or decision making framework) frequently by default, and it proves wrong just as often if not more so eg. Burry (perennial periodic doomsayer since  gfc), Grantham and the like. Siegel means well but he gets so worked up its almost comical

That being said, interest rate trends are not a bad starting point for where things may head. But yeah too many Rumsfeldesque known and unknown unknowns and thousands upon thousands of wheels spinning in their own micro and macro directions

With a big enough time frame (over a decade) its hard to objectively argue - assuming you are not addicted to the adreneline -against plonking a chunk in the s&p 500 as buffet says and then forget about it and enjoy your life

[Flexacon]

That’s a good short term call based on current conditions at the time. I’m talking about people making six months and year end  predictions now. The problem with these is that there are too many unknown variables that can have a large influence on prices.

You can go back to 2008. Nobody called the crash at the start of the year.

I was full bear on here mid/late 2021 and had shorts in the stock market. I was actually expecting the market to crash harder. The slow dump and leverage unwinding in crypto caught me out.

Burry did actually making all the right calls though. Only people think he's a crazy permabear when really he just highlights areas of risk without giving a time frame. Probably because his timing is also atrocious. The most recent example being he had Tesla shorts forever and then closed them a couple of weeks before the stock crashed massively. He also only communicates in riddles now as he's paranoid of the SEC harassing him again.

[Thin Lizzy]

https://www.cnbc.com/2007/12/04/abby-joseph-cohen-economy-to-rebound-in-2008.html

Abby Joseph Cohen, chief investment strategist at Goldman Sachs, says the U.S. economy will rebound in mid-2008, but the next few months will be bumpy.

In an interview with CNBC, Cohen explained why she remains bullish, how the recovery will look -- and what she foresees for the financial sector.


She says the S&P 500 will hit 1,675 by the end of 2008, a gain of 14.5 percent over 1,463 at market close Tuesday.

*******

It ended the year at 900.

[Mayday]

What’s so frustrating about attempting to forecast is that you can get the prediction right but the price still doesn’t go your way. It makes perfect sense that if central banks print trillions of dollars, gold should go through the roof but it’s been flat as fuck the entire time.🤔

That’s why my bets are 5yrs-6yrs out from 2020.

It doesn’t matter short term, longer term is ok. We will have a 2nd inflationary wave, just. Question of how big it will be. We can’t answer that until we see how deep this pullback will go CPI wise.

1970s was 5.3% for the first pullback economically so that’s a good reference point. Fed will be 4.4-4.5%.

[GymnJuice]

I was full bear on here mid/late 2021 and had shorts in the stock market. I was actually expecting the market to crash harder. The slow dump and leverage unwinding in crypto caught me out.

I don't do shorts but I was also expecting more of a recession and market downturn that what has happened so far.

[Flexacon]

Coinbase fires 20% and their CEO says dark times are coming.

Y'all keep on hoping.

Saying that manipulation is needed more than smart money is hilarious.


https://www.coinbase.com/blog/a-message-from-ceo-and-co-founder-brian-armstrong-to-coinbase-employees

Every crypto exchange, every crypto lender, every crypto entity is in a hole right now to the tune of several billions. Legal cases and police raids are flying all over the place. Crypto is a complete shit show right now. What's the price doing though? 

Now you see why I laughed when you said "Smart money" was needed. No bro crypto has the tether money printer fraud.

[Theoak*]

Every crypto exchange, every crypto lender, every crypto entity is in a hole right now to the tune of several billions. Legal cases and police raids are flying all over the place. Crypto is a complete shit show right now. What's the price doing though? 

Now you see why I laughed when you said "Smart money" was needed. No bro crypto has the tether money printer fraud.

The tether fraud might be the last catalyst for a draw down of 60-70% after BTC next bull run 2024/2025. That's "if" it blows up, certain exchanges are already signalling no fees to rotate out of tether and into usdc(?). I'm sure they know something shady  is there and with SEC making concentrated efforts on stable coins we might just see it implode.

How much market share USDC can take from tether between now and a hypothetical  blow up will indicate how much market will drop. After that what could really be a potential threat for such massive draw  downs in bear markets?

We've had :

Mt gox
China bans
block size wars
ICO scams
black Swan events
Fraudulent crypto casinos
Environmental FUD

Barring another black Swan or Quantum computing(still awhile off) BTC is poised in next couple of halving cycles to really stablise in terms of downside.

One thing is for sure, when btc is trading 6figures same people in this thread will have their cocks in their had  still calling it a ponzi while chasing to super sweet 3% on some foreign  hedged index fund.

[gib]

Gib was cool. Even the other dude was good fun.

We had gib who was certain Bitcoin was the new world currency at any moment. Then the other bloke who was certain the USD was collapsing at any moment and was busy buying ammo.

Now most calling for the end of everything and a total collapse. Nein!

Anyhoo at least this pump might get me back to break even lol.

Yo Mayday my man! I am still here. Just lurking, As for the "other guy", I have a very nice post ready for him when we hit 100K.

Hope everyone is doing well...