Chinese stock market collapse

[pissant]

stocks are a shit investment....so many better investment vehicles if you're not the sheeple cabal

You and Just about every Joe blow think...so if common knowledge is stocks suck. I'd take the opposite view.

Always oppose the herd.

[thegamechanger]

You and Just about every Joe blow think...so if common knowledge is stocks suck. I'd take the opposite view.

Always oppose the herd.

im confused now, joe blow avoids stocks, you dont

so how do i take the oppsite view

[Tedim]

You and Just about every Joe blow think...so if common knowledge is stocks suck. I'd take the opposite view.

Always oppose the herd.

two words

MORAL HAZARD

[denarii]

in communist china the govt owns you

[Hypo]

uh..no the last time that happened the real estate market went pop. Are you retarded?

Haha. Good call! Not to mention the bond market.

[2Thick]

this just proves the market isnt rational which is great for investors. Sounds like you are just too foolish to understand this. Markets are a result of human psychology, nothing more nothing less. Humans are fallible..You arent really some genius cause youve found out the markets aren't efficient mechanisms to determine value lol.

Honestly sounds like you are 20 years old (or 40+) and trying to be smart...You come across as idiotic though. And you also sound like a retail investor. Number one thing youll hear at cocktail parties full of doctors and lawyers is "MARKET IS SO RIGGED", "MARKET IS SO DUMB BLAH BLAH".

Inefficiency in price allow a real investor to have opportunities. If everything was priced perfectly there would be real reason to invest...

Yeah, markets are often quite inefficient in the short term. They tend to be pretty efficient overall in the longer term, although certainly nowhere near 100%. This is fundamental to the investing of Graham, Buffett, and many other rich old men who usually started with very little.

I've bought good companies very cheaply thousands of times after they sold off HARD due to a market over-correction on something like earnings news that was good that the street didn't like for whatever reason, or short term problems with a drug approval, or whatever. They may have perhaps been a little high before the news, and temporarily became irrationally low after.

I've also made quite a bit of money on the short side on many irrational bubbles / micro-bubbles - but you have to be more careful there due to the theoretically unlimited downside risk and limited upside when going short... plus the general upward bias of the markets and stocks trading on exchanges that exists for various reasons.  

I think the big problem many have with stocks, bonds, commodities "paper", etc is that you can always see what the price is, and are always aware of an investment's current perceived value, which is not always rational and often constantly changes due to various factors and bids and asks of large numbers of outsiders. If you could put shares of your home, investment properties, private business, etc, up for auction every day in a public exchange, the same thing would happen.

There's always risk with any investment - stocks and bonds, commodities, real estate, drilling oil, private businesses, etc. I'd generally rather buy shares of promising publicly traded companies that have to disclose everything than buy private companies that don't have the same transparency requirements. I invest mainly on fundamentals. Have done quite well over 21 years, although it's not been anywhere near perfect.

[2Thick]

Facebook has a P/E greater than 80.  They had $15 billion in revenue and $1 billion profit yet are worth more than Walmart which had $400 billion in revenue and something like $30 billion in profit.  lol  Fuck the stock market.

Yeah, Facebook has gotten way ahead of itself. It is growing rapidly while Walmart is not, but it is still way overpriced in terms of PE, PB, PS, etc. But they are basically apples and oranges.

Certain sectors and industries such as tech, biotech, etc seem to follow different "rules" than most other industries in terms of fundamental valuations. Netflix, Amazon, and Tesla are way overpriced on paper as well. Apple and Google are not, however.

[Skorp1o]

stocks are a shit investment....so many better investment vehicles if you're not the sheeple cabal

Not necessarily, if you have surplus cash and not willing to keep slapping it onto illiquid assets like bricks and mortar or business ventures if you have goodknowledge of markets and the emotional maturity, it's a great tool to make your money work for you or safe guard what you have against inflation.

[_aj_]

Not necessarily, if you have surplus cash and not willing to keep slapping it onto illiquid assets like bricks and mortar or business ventures if you have goodknowledge of markets and the emotional maturity, it's a great tool to make your money work for you or safe guard what you have against inflation.

The days of the retail investor are gone. Most people realize in their bones that it is a rigged game. And by "rigged", I don't mean that it's predetermined, but more that the fact that the big brokerage houses don't always do what's in the best interest of the small investor, but rather do what is in the best interest of the firm. In a pure bull market, it all works, because all boats are floating. In turbulent times, it becomes obvious that some classes of investor (small retail) can be sacrificed to save other classes (large accounts, "the firm", etc). In some cases, it means a small retail account gets a YoY haircut from +7% to +3%. In other cases, the retail investor gets wiped out as a market speed bump sacrifice to allow the big investors time to safely flee.

And people are starting to get it. That is why you have seen a steady decline in cash from the retail investor and a steady increase in HFT to the point that the market will become wildly unstable. Look at the pathetic volumes compared to 10 years ago. The various central banks are desperate to falsify the conditions that the equities market is safe and ready for retail investing again, but they are failing,

Look at Citi, with its $4 trillion in precious metals derivatives held PURELY for the purpose of driving down the price. The Street knows that retail investors (damn them) still look at commodity prices as canaries in the coal mine and will do ANYTHING to keep the price down.

JUst last week, the spot price of silver hit an all-time adjusted low. The same day that the U.S. Mint announced that it had run out of silver to mint coins. Only in our current fairytale world would a complete collapse in the silver supply correlate with a collapse in prices.

I am out and a staying out.

[Mr Anabolic]

in communist china the govt owns you

Do you have a US social security number?... You pay US taxes?... you use the US dollar?  

Guess what?... the US government owns you.

[Mr Anabolic]

The days of the retail investor are gone. Most people realize in their bones that it is a rigged game. And by "rigged", I don't mean that it's predetermined, but more that the fact that the big brokerage houses don't always do what's in the best interest of the small investor, but rather do what is in the best interest of the firm. In a pure bull market, it all works, because all boats are floating. In turbulent times, it becomes obvious that some classes of investor (small retail) can be sacrificed to save other classes (large accounts, "the firm", etc). In some cases, it means a small retail account gets a YoY haircut from +7% to +3%. In other cases, the retail investor gets wiped out as a market speed bump sacrifice to allow the big investors time to safely flee.

And people are starting to get it. That is why you have seen a steady decline in cash from the retail investor and a steady increase in HFT to the point that the market will become wildly unstable. Look at the pathetic volumes compared to 10 years ago. The various central banks are desperate to falsify the conditions that the equities market is safe and ready for retail investing again, but they are failing,

Look at Citi, with its $4 trillion in precious metals derivatives held PURELY for the purpose of driving down the price. The Street knows that retail investors (damn them) still look at commodity prices as canaries in the coal mine and will do ANYTHING to keep the price down.

Just last week, the spot price of silver hit an all-time adjusted low. The same day that the U.S. Mint announced that it had run out of silver to mint coins. Only in our current fairytale world would a complete collapse in the silver supply correlate with a collapse in prices.

I am out and a staying out.

Silver is a fantastic buy right now, but it would not surprise me if the criminals pushed it down to the $10-12 area.  The strong hands will be well rewarded, it could take years though.

[_aj_]

Silver is a fantastic buy right now, but it would not surprise me if the criminals pushed it down to the $10-12 area.  The strong hands will be well rewarded, it could take years though.

Absolutely, but only if you can find physical silver. Paper silver is just as debased as our currency. And shockingly physical silver bullion or coins are impossible to source now.

[Mr Anabolic]

Absolutely, but only if you can find physical silver. Paper silver is just as debased as our currency. And shockingly physical silver bullion or coins are impossible to source now.

90% is in short supply, but most large bullion dealers have plenty of ASEs and Canadian Maples.  I've been accumulating Ag since 1985... never sold one ounce.

[HonestBob]

I have a couple of businesses in Asia. 

Been screwed badly by landlords and almost certainly had a judge bribed in a case against us once in HK, but overall the growth and appetite for business makes it very interesting.

I don't think I'd ever invest in Chinese shares though, I stick with what I know and as much as possible what I can control.

[Tedim]

Absolutely, but only if you can find physical silver. Paper silver is just as debased as our currency. And shockingly physical silver bullion or coins are impossible to source now.

Gainesville coin in Florida....monster boxes if you want

[pedro01]

Not necessarily, if you have surplus cash and not willing to keep slapping it onto illiquid assets like bricks and mortar or business ventures if you have goodknowledge of markets and the emotional maturity, it's a great tool to make your money work for you or safe guard what you have against inflation.

But you work on the sell-side of finance.

Simply put:

Sell side - encouraging people/organisations to make financial transactions and making a commission/offloading on them when they buy

Buy side - making transactions and making money from the profits

So on your side of the industry, there is no real knowledge requirement. You probably don't invest money yourself (if your 150k/pa and 3k/per night out is anything to go by).

So your opinion is worth jack shit.  You are in the industry but you make money when people invest, not when profits from trading are made.

The bottom line is this - just as excitement to the upside drove the Chinese market up a little too high since late 2014, so shall fear drive it down a little too low.  This is a  buying opportunity but no-one can really call where the bottom is. As you can see from the pic, we are still way above where we started this year. So that's not a crash. It's just taking back some of this years gains. Personally,I'm looking at CSI at 2500 before I'll start buying in - but that's a rule of thumb and you have to assess as you go along.

This is not a collapse or a crash. It's just a popped bubble. I mean - look at Alibaba - it's a fucking web site. Look at the market cap versus the profits - it's madly overpriced. So if you do get into an China ETF when the CSI dips below 2500 - for fucks sake make sure it's investing in companies that actually do stuff

[Tedim]

Not necessarily, if you have surplus cash and not willing to keep slapping it onto illiquid assets like bricks and mortar or business ventures if you have goodknowledge of markets and the emotional maturity, it's a great tool to make your money work for you or safe guard what you have against inflation.

Old saying "if you can't hold it you don't own it".... I use to posses a series license, and I would rather go to Vegas...better odds

[2Thick]

Some of you well-to-do middle aged mofos making 6 figures or more don't have IRA's? 401k's for your employees? Any sort of tax-advantaged retirement accounts at all?

I'm very well diversified.

Taxable account that I originally started with $100k 21 years ago that I've been pouring as much as I can into each week. Very liquid. Can buy and sell as much and as often as I want and could get money out at any time. Have averaged ~ 15% over the years. Volatile, but has been a great investment vehicle.

SEP IRA I max out, plus a couple of older assorted Roth and Traditional IRAs / 401k rollovers from former employers.

New home that I had built that is all mine... oil and gas under the ground...

[2Thick]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/giant-hedge-fund-bridgewater-flips-view-on-china-no-safe-places-to-invest-1437613434