Because you're passionate about something, and truly like it, certainly does not guarantee success either.
I will call you foreskin tickler from now on...every time I read one of your posts I get an itch at the tip of my penis and I am yet to know why.
Now to your statement, you could go to a start up event and tell everyone their business will fail, and you will be 90% accurate as statistically 90% of businesses fail within 24mths....that doesn't make you a smart man, it makes you a predictable average thinking man...the real smart men are the ones who knew about the odds of success and still risked it all and managed to make the 10% cut.
HTH foreskin tickler.