South Carolina Race Very Close As Cruz Catches Trump

[James]

Trump – 26%
Cruz – 24%
Bush – 12%
Rubio – 11%

http://www.redstate.com/california_yankee/2016/02/15/south-carolina-race-close-cruz-catches-trump/

[Dos Equis]

Nate Silver's polls are probably more accurate.  http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-republican/

[240 is Back]

what a disaster.   

people are going to study this election for generations.   The power of marketing.  That's all trump is... marketing.

he doesn't have solutions.  he doesn't have catch phraess.  and it's not like he even has a strong conservative background we can look to - he's a lifelong liberal.

I'm happy to see dos equis shitting on trump, and showing some disgust at where this race has gone.

[avxo]

Nate Silver's polls are probably more accurate.  http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-republican/

Nate Silver's black statistical magic is very impressive. Interesting poll-of-polls there, thanks for the link. Very curious to see how close he'll end up being.

[headhuntersix]

Trump's attacks on Cruz could indicate that they know something internally that we don't. His attacks have gotten stronger in South Carolina...much like he did in Iowa towards the end. I think Cruz has caught up and they're worried.

[240 is Back]

Trump's attacks on Cruz could indicate that they know something internally that we don't. His attacks have gotten stronger in South Carolina...much like he did in Iowa towards the end. I think Cruz has caught up and they're worried.

SC is the Super Bowl for Cruz.

Trump wins there and the 2016 race is all over.  If he can win in lib NH and conservative SC... without putting all his $ into it... then the election is over and it's all going to Trump. 

Cruz has to go ALL OUT in south carolina.  Super tuesday will jsut be a trump coronation if trump wins SC by 20 points.

[Dos Equis]

Nate Silver's black statistical magic is very impressive. Interesting poll-of-polls there, thanks for the link. Very curious to see how close he'll end up being.

Yeah.  He has probably been the most accurate prognosticator out there the past several years. 

[JOHN MATRIX]

SC is the Super Bowl for Cruz.

Trump wins there and the 2016 race is all over.  If he can win in lib NH and conservative SC... without putting all his $ into it... then the election is over and it's all going to Trump. 

Cruz has to go ALL OUT in south carolina.  Super tuesday will jsut be a trump coronation if trump wins SC by 20 points.

this. virtually every other poll besides this one shows TRUMP with a huge lead. if he blow out wins SC, its all over.

[Leatherneck]

this. virtually every other poll besides this one shows TRUMP with a huge lead. if he blow out wins SC, its all over.

If he wins SC, even by a slim margin, he will take NV. After winning 3 states in a row the band wagon jumpers will climb on and he will clean up on Super Tuesday.

[JOHN MATRIX]

If he wins SC, even by a slim margin, he will take NV. After winning 3 states in a row the band wagon jumpers will climb on and he will clean up on Super Tuesday.

yep...and all the pathetic losers who continue to stay in the race despite 0.000% chance of winning are only helping TRUMP win...no one else can consolidate enough votes to beat him. they know this but just do not care.

[240 is Back]

yep...and all the pathetic losers who continue to stay in the race despite 0.000% chance of winning are only helping TRUMP win...no one else can consolidate enough votes to beat him. they know this but just do not care.

THIS.

If Rubio, Jeb, Carson all dropped out tomorrow, then YES, the "anti-trump" vote would all go to Cruz.  And it'd be way closer.

Trump is on twitter making fun of jeb's contact lenses today... "It's too late to pretend you're cool, Jeb!"   That is the face of the GOP today, sadly.  Trump getting 45% in Nevada polls... while mocking somebody's contact lenses.  This is what American politics has disintegrated into

[Dos Equis]

If he wins SC, even by a slim margin, he will take NV. After winning 3 states in a row the band wagon jumpers will climb on and he will clean up on Super Tuesday.

I doubt it.  Pay close attention to the number voters who are not supporting Trump.  It's overwhelming.  All Cruz and/or Rubio have to do is finish in the top three in these primaries to force a brokered convention. 

[240 is Back]

I doubt it.  Pay close attention to the number voters who are not supporting Trump.  It's overwhelming.  All Cruz and/or Rubio have to do is finish in the top three in these primaries to force a brokered convention. 

Nine states vote on March 1st.  (this is already after SC and NEV go to trump)

WHICH of these 9 states does trump lose? 

Sound like you're outright ROOTING for a brokered convention - but Trump has a massive lead and it's only growing.  Gonna be hard to invent a reason why this dipshit immature liberal doesn't have the votes.  He will.

[polychronopolous]

Nine states vote on March 1st.  (this is already after SC and NEV go to trump)

WHICH of these 9 states does trump lose? 

Sound like you're outright ROOTING for a brokered convention - but Trump has a massive lead and it's only growing.  Gonna be hard to invent a reason why this dipshit immature liberal doesn't have the votes.  He will.

Cruz has a chance to take Texas, which is about as big as it gets in Republican Land.

[Dos Equis]

Cruz has a chance to take Texas, which is about as big as it gets in Republican Land.

In this four dog race, the only states that could be determinative are the winner-take-all states.  Otherwise, they will be sharing delates up to the convention. 

[Leatherneck]

In this four dog race, the only states that could be determinative are the winner-take-all states.  Otherwise, they will be sharing delates up to the convention. 

You aren't taking into account the band wagon effect.

[Dos Equis]

You aren't taking into account the band wagon effect.

True.  I just believe Trump's negatives are too high.  The people who like him, really like him, regardless of how empty his  suit may be or how offensive he is.  The people who don't like him, really don't like him, so I don't see those folks flocking to Trump if others drop out.  They would have been supporting him in the first place.

[JOHN MATRIX]

Cruz has a solid lead in massive Texas, and leads in Arkansas, Utah, and even California as of last polling, and is neck and neck in several other southern states with TRUMP...and already has a win under his belt.

he is realistically the only only one with a path to the nomination other than TRUMP. people keep bringing up Rubio, but he hasn't won anything or even come in 2nd, and is leading in exactly zero states or is even tied for the lead, ANYWHERE. what exactly is his path??

[Dos Equis]

Cruz has a solid lead in massive Texas, and leads in Arkansas, Utah, and even California as of last polling, and is neck and neck in several other southern states with TRUMP...and already has a win under his belt.

he is realistically the only only one with a path to the nomination other than TRUMP. people keep bringing up Rubio, but he hasn't won anything or even come in 2nd, and is leading in exactly zero states or is even tied for the lead, ANYWHERE. what exactly is his path??

All he has to do is hang around and finish in the top three in most states and if Trump doesn't have the over 1200 delegates, it's a brokered convention, which probably makes Rubio the favorite. 

[James]

Surprise: Cruz Overtakes Trump to Lead New NBC News National Poll





Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump has fallen behind Ted Cruz in the national GOP horserace, according to a brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

In the poll, Cruz is the first choice of 28 percent of Republican primary voters, while Trump gets 26 percent. They're followed by Marco Rubio at 17 percent, John Kasich at 11 percent, Ben Carson at 10 percent and Jeb Bush at 4 percent.

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/surprise-trump-falls-behind-cruz-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n520296

[avxo]

Surprise: Cruz Overtakes Trump to Lead New NBC News National Poll





Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump has fallen behind Ted Cruz in the national GOP horserace, according to a brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

In the poll, Cruz is the first choice of 28 percent of Republican primary voters, while Trump gets 26 percent. They're followed by Marco Rubio at 17 percent, John Kasich at 11 percent, Ben Carson at 10 percent and Jeb Bush at 4 percent.

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/surprise-trump-falls-behind-cruz-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n520296

Interesting. However, a 2% difference is almost certainly within the margin of error, which means they're in a statistical tie. I suspect (but have no evidence to prove it) that this is a blip that happened to be captured, and things will go back to "normal" soon. A lot more than we realized may be riding on this next debate.

[240 is Back]

yeah, only 400 people polled.   total outlier.   I wish it was the trend, but I doubt it is.