Ted in Peril of Losing Texas? New Poll has Cruz, Trump in Dead Heat

[polychronopolous]

Republican presidential hopefuls Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in the race for Texas voters, a new WFAA Texas TEGNA poll found, although more North Texans give the edge to the New York businessman and former reality TV star.

Cruz and Trump were knotted at 32 percent statewide, while Marco Rubio lagged with 17 percent, according to a new poll conducted for Star-Telegram media partner WFAA-TV. In North Texas, likely voters answering the survey favored Trump over Cruz by 34 percent to 28 percent.

Other recent polls have shown Cruz with a 1- to 15-point lead over Trump, and anything less than a strong win in the senator’s home state could be devastating to his campaign, analysts agree.

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton holds an almost 2-to-1 advantage, leading Bernie Sanders 61-32 percent, the telephone poll of likely voters found.

“Ted Cruz is supposed to win Texas,” said Allan Saxe, an associate political science professor at the University of Texas at Arlington. “If Donald Trump can beat him, or come close to beating him in Texas, it will be a win for him.

“Trump has so much momentum that is driving him now, media, name recognition,” he said. “It’s political adrenaline.”

Texas, long considered a jewel among Super Tuesday states because of its large number of delegates, may now be more important than ever for presidential candidates on both sides of the political aisle.


In a year when voters are turning to anti-establishment candidates, many wonder if Texas will be the firewall Cruz and Rubio need to slow Trump’s presidential bid, which appears to gain steam nearly every day. The question grows more important after Trump this week claimed his third straight victory, this time in Nevada.

Observers also wonder if Texas can provide the bulwark Clinton needs to fend off Sanders’ contagious grassroots campaign.

“Hillary Clinton has always been strong in Texas,” Saxe said. “She’s got a big operation here. She has a very strong foothold here, especially among large African- American and Hispanic populations.

“She won the the popular vote even against Barack Obama in 2008, even though he took more delegates.”

These latest results come just days before Texans head to the polls on Tuesday.

[Dos Equis]

Silver puts the odds of Cruz winning Texas at 80 percent.  Current projection:

Cruz  36.2%
Trump  24.5%
Rubio  24.5%
Kasich 7.3%
Carson  5.1%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/texas-republican/

[JOHN MATRIX]

there is one poll where hes only one point up, but in several others hes up by double digits.
he is the ONLY one who can beat TRUMP. Rubio needs to drop out; if he doesn't, TRUMP will win easily

[Dos Equis]

there is one poll where hes only one point up, but in several others hes up by double digits.
he is the ONLY one who can beat TRUMP. Rubio needs to drop out; if he doesn't, TRUMP will win easily

I initially thought Cruz could beat Trump in a two-person race.  Now I'm not so sure, especially after South Carolina.  Trump is pulling voters who were supposed to be some of Cruz's strongest supporters. 

I actually think it will be the other way around:  Cruz dropping out and getting behind Rubio.  He's a lot closer to beating Trump in the current state polls than Cruz at this point.   

[chadstallion]

that's why I plan to vote in the GOP primary.
my vote for the Donald is actually a vote against Teddy.

[240 is Back]

It's all about TRENDS.   It's not about what people are doing today, it's what they WILL do if the trend continues.

Cruz is/was up 8 points.  I think this one is a nail biter and Trump likely wins it.  completely should not be the case BUT confidence in cruz is waning, the GOP congress is starting to give trump daily handjobs, it's just a matter of time now.

[SOMEPARTS]

Texas primary only 5 days away. I think Cruz wins Texas by a few points. They are loyal to Texans there. Rubio and Kasich are in trouble - Rubio more so because he thinks he's going to win his state.

[240 is Back]

cruz was up 8 points last week.  it's tied today.  that trend tells me that Trump is up 4-5 points by election day.

[chadstallion]

especially when the Dems get out the vote for DT.
really put the nail in Ted's campaign coffin.

[sync pulse]

As I have said before...The changes in telecommunications (cell phones as opposed to wireline phones) have made polling much different and less accurate than in the past...

[240 is Back]

trends/momentum are killers.

Trump wins TX and he wins OH and he wins FL.

daggers thru the hearts of the GOP... well, if they had a heart

[SOMEPARTS]

trends/momentum are killers.

Trump wins TX and he wins OH and he wins FL.

daggers thru the hearts of the GOP... well, if they had a heart

Well, if he wins Texas it's over. The rehearsed attacks from Cruz and Rubio are just not really that well done.

Kasich still in perfect position to endorse Trump same day as losing Ohio and come out ahead for it. Can you say VP? Starting to admire his tactical approach to the primary race.

[LurkerNoMore]

trends/momentum are killers.

Trump wins TX and he wins OH and he wins FL.

daggers thru the hearts of the GOP... well, if they had a heart

Lot of tears to be shed by fundies over this if it happens.

[JOHN MATRIX]

Cruz is up by an average of 10-12 pts 

[Dos Equis]

Cruz is up by an average of 10-12 pts 

Yep.  Projected finish:

Cruz  38.4%
Trump  26.4%
Rubio  21.2%
Kasich  6.0%
Carson  6.0%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/texas-republican/