Hillary Clinton’s post-convention polling surge is showing no signs of fading. She leads Donald Trump, on average, by 5 to 7 percentage points in national polls, and is an 83-percent favorite to win on Nov. 8, according to our polls-only model. Our polls-plus model — which accounts for the “fundamentals,” as well as the tendency for a candidate’s numbers to temporarily rise after his or her convention — gives her a 76 percent chance. Those are her largest advantages since we launched our election forecasts back in June.<snip>
Link:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-post-convention-bump-is-holding-steady/
