App maker: Trump will win

[markofan]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/08/13/app-maker---trump-win-election/88640044/

[The Abdominal Snoman]

I think Trump will get a lot of votes from people who will never admit they voted for Trump.

[jude2]

I think Trump will get a lot of votes from people who will never admit they voted for Trump.

Fact.

[Never1AShow]

I think Trump will get a lot of votes from people who will never admit they voted for Trump.

I've seen stories showing up to 30% won't admit it.  Wonder why?

[TheShape.]

I've seen stories showing up to 30% won't admit it.  Wonder why?

They don't want to be attacked by liberal fascists.

[SaintAnger]

Never heard of that app.

[jude2]

I've seen stories showing up to 30% won't admit it.  Wonder why?

Because people who publicly display their vote for him, have problems. I have seen non Trump folks destroy property of his supporters.

[SquidVicious]

Because people who publicly display their vote for him, have problems. I have seen non Trump folks destroy property of his supporters.

For sure. Cars with Trump stickers get keyed. Homes with Trump signs get vandalized. People know what's up. If you think these people are being counted, you're in for a hyuuuuuuuge surprise come November.

[240 is Back]

For sure. Cars with Trump stickers get keyed. Homes with Trump signs get vandalized. People know what's up. If you think these people are being counted, you're in for a hyuuuuuuuge surprise come November.

We heard this in 2008 and 2012.   unfortunately, in the end, the polls were pretty right on. 

Rassmussen has a late night prediction of "romney will win it!" and Mccain had a last minute false drudge headline of "within one point" that Drudge duplicated in 2012.

And in 2016, without a doubt, the Drudge headline the night before the election will be "Trump miraculously pulls close at the last minute" to motivate people.  Drudge does it every year, and every year it's BS.

The polls are very accurate when it comes to presidential elections, down to the county.  Nate and 538 was insanely accurate in 2012 Romney counties. 

[Grape Ape]

Nate and 538 was insanely accurate in 2012 Romney counties. 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

[240 is Back]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

you're talking about his singular approach to predicting trump performance against 16 others in a reckless unprecedented primary clusterfck.

i'm talking about his macro predictions on the US presidency.  Apples and oranges.

The same way intrade and predictors were very wrong about John Roberts' ruling on obamacare.

with the prez election, there is just SO MUCH polling data and they get it right.  They'll have Hilary up by 6 and she'll win by 7.  They get it right.  I love politics board, I love the media psychology of it... and I see it every election cycle.  They challenge the legitimacy of polls WHEN THEY ARE BEHIND.   When Trump was UP in the polls, all he could talk about was how right they're getting it. When he acts like a fool and sinks ten points... suddenly they're all full of shit. 

We can bump this later, but there's no point.  The prez polls get it right every time now.  The computing and calculating are just too good these days.  If trump is up 3 points in them when election day arrives (entirely possible, given the fact hilary is a freakin criminal), then he will win without a doubt.  If hilary is up 3+ points, she will win.  It's not even up for debate, IMHO.

[Grape Ape]

you're talking about his singular approach to predicting trump performance against 16 others in a reckless unprecedented primary clusterfck.

No, I wasn't.

I never even read the article, just knew it existed and posted it to make you read it.

[240 is Back]

No, I wasn't.

I never even read the article, just knew it existed and posted it to make you read it.

the 538 article you posted = nate explaining why he was wrong about trump winning nomination. 

[Grape Ape]

the 538 article you posted = nate explaining why he was wrong about trump winning nomination. 

I knew he botched that.  Silver was a big baseball analytics guy so his name popped up on a baseball message board referring to that article.

I can't even follow this election anymore - too ridiculous.  Two horrid candidates.

[240 is Back]

I knew he botched that.  Silver was a big baseball analytics guy so his name popped up on a baseball message board referring to that article.

I can't even follow this election anymore - too ridiculous.  Two horrid candidates.

it's like we are at an awful NFL game.  our home team is down by 30 points in the 3rd quarter and we're about to be eliminated from the playoffs after starting the season 5-0.

We paid a shitload for the tickets so we may as well stay.  But it's a crap game, it's cold out, and our top players keep getting hurt.

[Grape Ape]

it's like we are at an awful NFL game.  our home team is down by 30 points in the 3rd quarter and we're about to be eliminated from the playoffs after starting the season 5-0.

We paid a shitload for the tickets so we may as well stay.  But it's a crap game, it's cold out, and our top players keep getting hurt.

What bothers me is how the left supporters can't admit their candidate is crap and try to downplay everything surround her.  Role model for women?  How is someone who stays in a relationship with a serial cheater and even tries to slander the accusers a good role model?I could accept the "anyone but Trump mantra" if I believed they wouldn't be voting Trump if he ran as a dem, but I know they would.

And the right its equally fucked.  They have no right to complain about Trump, because they were so bad themselves he beat their sorry asses.

[240 is Back]

What bothers me is how the left supporters can't admit their candidate is crap and try to downplay everything surround her.  Role model for women?  How is someone who stays in a relationship with a serial cheater and even tries to slander the accusers a good role model?I could accept the "anyone but Trump mantra" if I believed they wouldn't be voting Trump if he ran as a dem, but I know they would.
And the right its equally fucked.  They have no right to complain about Trump, because they were so bad themselves he beat their sorry asses.

The fact that Trump is only down 3 to 7 points is a testament to just how hated hilary really is... her own supporters are lukewarm about her.  The bernie people hate her.  She cheated her way into the nomination and should be indicted for the email stuff. and the pay for play stuff is serious too.

Hilary = a bank manager that secretly works as a bookie.

Trump = a former bookie bank manager, who claims he doesn't make book anymore, but does get Baker act'd every few months for psychotic episodes where he wakes up naked covered in glitter in a zoo.

[mr.turbo]

App maker everyone else : Trump will not win

faxed

[Never1AShow]

It's a testament to the entire media being pretty much controlled by 6 corporations, including Newscorp Fox, and pushing a globalist agenda by ignoring everything she does and all of her negatives.  It'd be exactly the same with Cruz or any R.  Even still her negatives are on par with his.  The same case can be made for her throwing the elections as his, many, many gaffes, scandals, etc.

Trump is the only R in 30 years that can talk past and over them, and the only one willing to fight the PC war, and that's why he'll win.

[Yamcha]

Trump is the only R in 30 years that can talk past and over them, and the only one willing to fight the PC war, and that's why he'll win.

Hope you are right.

[240 is Back]

It's a testament to the entire media being pretty much controlled by 6 corporations, including Newscorp Fox, and pushing a globalist agenda by ignoring everything she does and all of her negatives.  It'd be exactly the same with Cruz or any R.  Even still her negatives are on par with his.  The same case can be made for her throwing the elections as his, many, many gaffes, scandals, etc.

Trump is the only R in 30 years that can talk past and over them, and the only one willing to fight the PC war, and that's why he'll win.

i think apps, polling groups, and pundits are quickly learning Drudge will give them headline billing IF they say anything to offer promise and hope to desperate trump supporters.  these scrub USC polls saying trump up by 1, these apps saying trump will win - they become household names overnight with one flimsy claim because Drudge does WAY better when the home page has good trump news.  It's hard to find these days.

[mr.turbo]

It's a testament to the entire media being pretty much controlled by 6 corporations, including Newscorp Fox, and pushing a globalist agenda by ignoring everything she does and all of her negatives.  It'd be exactly the same with Cruz or any R.  Even still her negatives are on par with his.  The same case can be made for her throwing the elections as his, many, many gaffes, scandals, etc.

Trump is the only R in 30 years that can talk past and over them, and the only one willing to fight the PC war, and that's why he'll win.

is it biased against the GOP to report on the many many republicans who object to their nominee?

 

[TheShape.]

He'll never run
He'll never file
He'll never hit 20%
He'll never win a state
He won't get to 1237
He won't be our nominee
He'll never be president (You are right here.)
He won't build the wall
He won't win the reelection

[Dr Dutch]

I think Trump will get a lot of votes from people who will never admit they voted for Trump.

They also said that in the end Americans wouldn't vote for a black guy, but they did. Twice.

[polychronopolous]

He'll never run
He'll never file
He'll never hit 20%
He'll never win a state
He won't get to 1237
He won't be our nominee
He'll never be president (You are right here.)
He won't build the wall
He won't win the reelection

Exactly.