After the release of the NBC-Wall Street Journal poll on Monday, RealClearPolitics updated its national polling average to reflect the shift in the presidential race. That new poll shows Hillary Clinton with a big lead over Donald Trump, some 14 points in the wake of the hot-mic videotape that's undercut Trump's support. In the absence of other polls showing a similar spread, though, the average shows a more modest 6-point gap between the two.
From a historical perspective, it's normal to see movement shortly after the first debate. In 2000, as you can see on the chart below, the red line shifted back toward George W. Bush after the first debate. In 2012, as the yellow line shows, the race shifted away from Barack Obama.
