Author Topic: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?  (Read 1083 times)

Howard

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I'll be up front and admit I was a big supporter and voter for Sen. Marco Rubio in the primary.

Female voters make up a slight 2-3% majority in most US Presidential elections.
To win the electoral college and hit 270 electoral  college votes, Trump needs some key states.
Pennsylvania was in play for awhile, but he's blown it.
Why?

College , educated, mostly white career woman on the outskirts of major cities like Philadelphia are
NOT voting for Trump. In fact he's upside-down ( 2/3 against, 1/3 for ) nationally within this key demographic.

Virginia and Colorado are 2 more examples where career woman won't vote for Trump and will cost him the state.

If the 3 swing states listed above break as expected for Hillary, then Ohio and Florida won't matter.
The state map and electoral vote make a Trump victory and long shot.

I'm no fan of Hildabeast  :D and don't agree with some of her more liberal policies.
BUT, she's gonna win by a 2:1 margin in the electoral college tally, where it counts.

I'm clueless why Trump double-downed on alpha male posturing and juvenile insults.
He actually sounded good during the 1st debate when he laid out his trade and economic plan.

Instead of doing effective "damage control" he sounds like some 25 yr old , juiced up getbigger.

Trump has to know he's on a clear path of defeat and self destruction.
Why didn't he "pivot" to make his appeal more effective in getting woman to vote for him?
I don't get it?

Las Vegas

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Re: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?
« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2016, 06:53:39 PM »
I'll be up front and admit I was a big supporter and voter for Sen. Marco Rubio in the primary.

Female voters make up a slight 2-3% majority in most US Presidential elections.
To win the electoral college and hit 270 electoral  college votes, Trump needs some key states.
Pennsylvania was in play for awhile, but he's blown it.
Why?

College , educated, mostly white career woman on the outskirts of major cities like Philadelphia are
NOT voting for Trump. In fact he's upside-down ( 2/3 against, 1/3 for ) nationally within this key demographic.

Virginia and Colorado are 2 more examples where career woman won't vote for Trump and will cost him the state.

If the 3 swing states listed above break as expected for Hillary, then Ohio and Florida won't matter.
The state map and electoral vote make a Trump victory and long shot.

I'm no fan of Hildabeast  :D and don't agree with some of her more liberal policies.
BUT, she's gonna win by a 2:1 margin in the electoral college tally, where it counts.

I'm clueless why Trump double-downed on alpha male posturing and juvenile insults.
He actually sounded good during the 1st debate when he laid out his trade and economic plan.

Instead of doing effective "damage control" he sounds like some 25 yr old , juiced up getbigger.

Trump has to know he's on a clear path of defeat and self destruction.
Why didn't he "pivot" to make his appeal more effective in getting woman to vote for him?
I don't get it?


IMO it is because he knows that from the first moment of winning the office, everything falls on him.

Any failure before (including losing the race) can be blamed on other things, while any failure after will land right on him.  He fears that type of failure and it gets the best of him.

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?
« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2016, 06:58:48 PM »
That's party line Bullshit.

The harsh reality for why women vote Dem is that, much like blacks and Hispanics, women put in less and take more out of social programs, and the Dems are more likely to keep the gravy train rolling. It's as simple as that and it doesn't matter who the Republicans run.


Dos Equis

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Re: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?
« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2016, 07:03:40 PM »
I would have voted for Rubio over Hillary and Rubio should have been the GOP nominee.  Still, there would have been wall-to-wall coverage about some stupid issue if Rubio (or any other Republican) were the nominee.  Remember what they did to Romney?  Painted him as a money laundering gangster who didn't pay taxes.  Took his 47 percent comment and made it larger than his campaign.  That's what the MSM helps the Democrat Party do. 

TuHolmes

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Re: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?
« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2016, 07:08:54 PM »
I would have voted for Rubio over Hillary and Rubio should have been the GOP nominee.  Still, there would have been wall-to-wall coverage about some stupid issue if Rubio (or any other Republican) were the nominee.  Remember what they did to Romney?  Painted him as a money laundering gangster who didn't pay taxes.  Took his 47 percent comment and made it larger than his campaign.  That's what the MSM helps the Democrat Party do. 

Most people would have.


Dos Equis

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Re: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?
« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2016, 07:12:22 PM »
Most people would have.



It still would have been a toss up given everything a GOP nominee has to fight against, although I think he would have had a better chance of winning than Trump. 

That said, I think Hillary is still the favorite, but anything can happen.  Crazy race. 

Howard

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Re: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?
« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2016, 07:25:53 PM »
It still would have been a toss up given everything a GOP nominee has to fight against, although I think he would have had a better chance of winning than Trump. 

That said, I think Hillary is still the favorite, but anything can happen.  Crazy race. 

It WAS a close race until he got more defensive and insulting over the latest sex talk on tape and female harassment stories.
In my opinion, he should have gotten off the silly, reality TV style tweets and gotten serious on real policy.
I was waiting for an excuse to consider him serious and vote for him.
I'm still waiting....

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?
« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2016, 07:38:30 PM »
It WAS a close race until he got more defensive and insulting over the latest sex talk on tape and female harassment stories.
In my opinion, he should have gotten off the silly, reality TV style tweets and gotten serious on real policy.
I was waiting for an excuse to consider him serious and vote for him.
I'm still waiting....

No, it's a close race, now:


http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct14

"At the close of a week that began with him trailing by seven points, Donald Trump still holds a slight lead over Hillary Clinton in today’s White House Watch survey despite a flurry of news reports alleging a history of sexual harassment on his part.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Trump with 43% support to Clinton’s 41%. That’s unchanged from yesterday. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson picks up six percent (6%) of vote, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein has two percent (2%) backing. Four percent (4%) like another candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)"


Dos Equis

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Re: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?
« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2016, 07:45:50 PM »
It WAS a close race until he got more defensive and insulting over the latest sex talk on tape and female harassment stories.
In my opinion, he should have gotten off the silly, reality TV style tweets and gotten serious on real policy.
I was waiting for an excuse to consider him serious and vote for him.
I'm still waiting....

It's still a close race.  If it wasn't the recording it would have been something else.  Remember that dozens of reporters were assigned to find dirt on Trump.  They probably have dozens of things they can unleash and tell the public to talk about it.  The MSM is a mass manipulator. 

Howard

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Re: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?
« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2016, 07:55:15 PM »
It's still a close race.  If it wasn't the recording it would have been something else.  Remember that dozens of reporters were assigned to find dirt on Trump.  They probably have dozens of things they can unleash and tell the public to talk about it.  The MSM is a mass manipulator. 

Sadly, his own words on tape and inability to stay on message did him in.
He made the MSM's job all too easy.

Dos Equis

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Re: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?
« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2016, 08:00:32 PM »
Sadly, his own words on tape and inability to stay on message did him in.
He made the MSM's job all too easy.

Meh.  If it wasn't the tape it would have been something else. 

Nick Danger

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Re: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?
« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2016, 08:00:51 PM »


If you don't believe the Fox poll who will you believe?

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Re: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?
« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2016, 08:26:44 PM »


If you don't believe the Fox poll who will you believe?

Cannot rely on any single poll.  I trust Nate Silver and he has Clinton projected to win, but even he said Trump can still pull this off. 

SaintAnger

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Re: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?
« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2016, 10:40:50 PM »
I would have voted for Rubio over Hillary and Rubio should have been the GOP nominee.  Still, there would have been wall-to-wall coverage about some stupid issue if Rubio (or any other Republican) were the nominee.  Remember what they did to Romney?  Painted him as a money laundering gangster who didn't pay taxes.  Took his 47 percent comment and made it larger than his campaign.  That's what the MSM helps the Democrat Party do. 

I feel Trump and his ardent, cock-alter worshiping supporters will get us all killed.  So, I'd gladly take Rubio over him or Hillary.  Don't know much about him.  Probably a pussy Republican, but at least he'd keep the status quo for a while until it's time to make another important decision in 4 years while all this blows over.

SaintAnger

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Re: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?
« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2016, 10:42:21 PM »
I'll be up front and admit I was a big supporter and voter for Sen. Marco Rubio in the primary.

Female voters make up a slight 2-3% majority in most US Presidential elections.
To win the electoral college and hit 270 electoral  college votes, Trump needs some key states.
Pennsylvania was in play for awhile, but he's blown it.
Why?

College , educated, mostly white career woman on the outskirts of major cities like Philadelphia are
NOT voting for Trump. In fact he's upside-down ( 2/3 against, 1/3 for ) nationally within this key demographic.

Virginia and Colorado are 2 more examples where career woman won't vote for Trump and will cost him the state.

If the 3 swing states listed above break as expected for Hillary, then Ohio and Florida won't matter.
The state map and electoral vote make a Trump victory and long shot.

I'm no fan of Hildabeast  :D and don't agree with some of her more liberal policies.
BUT, she's gonna win by a 2:1 margin in the electoral college tally, where it counts.

I'm clueless why Trump double-downed on alpha male posturing and juvenile insults.
He actually sounded good during the 1st debate when he laid out his trade and economic plan.

Instead of doing effective "damage control" he sounds like some 25 yr old , juiced up getbigger.

Trump has to know he's on a clear path of defeat and self destruction.
Why didn't he "pivot" to make his appeal more effective in getting woman to vote for him?
I don't get it?


Interesting.  Also, Trump has ruined his brand, according to some.  How can these poor white trash folk (also very arrogant--about what, go figure!) afford his hotels and club memberships?

He's fucked.

GOOD.

And I used to LOVE this guy.

mazrim

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Re: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?
« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2016, 03:31:54 AM »
Most people would have.


Rubio would have been crushed.

Las Vegas

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Re: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?
« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2016, 04:01:56 AM »
Rand Paul was the best available shot from that crowd, I think.

Not sure Rubio would have been less risky than Hillary.  He reminds me of Obama in many ways, really.

Yamcha

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Re: Key state polls tell the election tale/ Why did Trump self-destruct?
« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2016, 06:50:28 AM »


Don't get discouraged.

EDIT:
Bookmakers had LEAVE priced at 15/2 (8.5 in decimal odds, +750 American odds) on the morning of the vote, that's an implied probability of 11.8%

Trump is currently priced at 5.6/1 on the Betfair exchange (6.6 in decimal, +560 American), that's an implied probability of 15.2%
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