Democrats Aren't Winning

[polychronopolous]

The Republican triumph in Montana punctuates how difficult the climb back will be for the out-of-power party in the hyperpartisan Trump era.




Democrats still aren't winning.

Four months into his administration, President Donald Trump registers the approval of barely 40 percent of the country. He is mired in an investigation that appears to expand by the day, and is continually damaged by government leakers seemingly determined to embarrass him.


Conservatives openly fret about the future of their ideological movement, given the president's rampant inconsistencies. Even with majorities on Capitol Hill, Republicans are struggling with delivering the legislative agenda they campaigned on, often burdened by papering over the latest Trump tweet or distracted by the daily Russia-related developments.

This week, they found themselves attempting to shrug off the astonishing meltdown of their Montana congressional candidate, who snapped at a reporter on the eve of Thursday's special election, allegedly slamming him to the ground and punching him.

The media narrative for the Republican Party in 2017 has teetered between dark and darker. A White House on the brink. A GOP Congress at war with itself. A slate of underperforming or uninspiring contenders.

And yet, the Democrats still aren't winning.

In the three opportunities they've had to deliver a brushback to Trump through special U.S. House elections, they've failed. These districts are undoubtedly conservative-leaning, having not been held by a Democrat for decades, and in one case, Democrats still have a shot to flip a seat in Georgia next month.

But for all the raised expectations on the left and the hand-wringing on the right, the results have been the same, underscoring just how difficult it will be for the minority party to claw its way back into power. Trump is weakened, but far from vanquished. Republican candidates may be flawed, but their loyal constituencies are showing up to bail them out – if only to rebut the narrative they're constantly hearing permeate out of Washington.

Take Montana.

Even before Republican Greg Gianforte faced a misdemeanor assault charge, he was seen as a subpar candidate due to unpopularity tied to his failed run for governor last year. He was yet another white male multimillionaire running for high office.

Clad in a cowboy hat, folk-singing and guitar-strumming Democrat Rob Quist was easily the more colorful candidate. He attracted significant funding, drew large crowds – with the help of Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont – and tracked within single digits of Gianforte in polling.

After the incident involving Gianforte and Guardian reporter Ben Jacobs, there was a brief moment when the chattering class wondered if it would amount to a breaking point. But as reporters on the ground scoured for signs of the favored candidate facing a crisis, the evidence they turned up was scant.

A store clerk in the state told MSNBC that Gianforte sounded like "my kind of politician." A 75-year-old Bozeman architect who had already voted for Gianforte told The New York Times the incident "doesn't change my mind at all." CNN found a voter who, after hearing the audio of the scuffle, actually said he had compassion for Gianforte.

As Gianforte apologized for his actions during his victory speech, admitting, "I made a mistake," a supporter could be heard saying, "Not in our minds!"

Gianforte defeated Quist by 6 points in the statewide district – far from the 20-point margin Trump racked up or even the 16-point margin former Rep. Ryan Zinke collected in 2016.

But as cliche as it sounds, a win is still a win. And the overarching takeaway is that in this hyperpartisan environment – in which sides are unwilling to grant even the smallest concession to their opponents – it takes a mountain to move voters, especially those in red districts.

Even a body-slam won't do it.

"Close only counts in horseshoes," Democratic strategist David Axelrod tweeted Friday. "Outside @GOP groups outspent Ds 6-to-1, unleashing a ceaseless barrage on Quist with no counter. Will this be the norm?"

"Another question is whether in cycle [Democratic candidates] should expect the same infusion of cash online as those running in specials," Axelrod said. "Probably not."

The Democrats have nothing but margins to take solace in. Noting that Gianforte performed 14 points worse than Trump, one operative attempted to highlight the bright side by imagining that "if every GOPer in '18 does 14 pts worse than Trump, Dems win 138 House seats."

Of 30 House GOP seats desired by Democrats, 23 of the incumbents won by more than 6 points in 2016, and 17 of them won by more than 10 .

The seesaw of politics says Democrats should have the wind at their backs during next year's midterms, especially if Trump doesn't improve his own standing. Over the last 20 such elections, the president's party has lost House seats in 18. Yet even with a wave, those are towering margins to climb and topple to reclaim control.

Of course, it's foolish to read too much into just a few special elections, let alone a single one.

But observers can be assured that if Democrats had emerged victorious in any thus far, it would've sparked a fusillade of headlines and coverage portraying a coming doomsday for the GOP.

What's true is that these early elections are showing the limits of the Democratic resistance that has bubbled up across the country and into the streets. It's proved powerful, but not transformative.

And while Montana was probably never a ripe place to fire up an anti-Trump protest vote, in less than a month, yet another weather vane will appear in Georgia's special election run-off for a House seat.

Jon Ossoff and the Georgia race appear to offer the best chance yet for a Democratic victory. Gubernatorial races this fall in Virginia and New Jersey offer additional shots.

But so far, Democrats aren't winning.

[Soul Crusher]

Every time trump acts a fool - the democrats are there to remind us just how even more unfit and disastrous they would be back in office

[Dos Equis]

So much for "the resistance." 

[polychronopolous]

So much for "the resistance." 

The mainstream media is absolutely clueless. They are in complete denial in how much this country truly despises them.

Body slam a journalist, win an election: Readers see ominous signs in Gianforte's victory



On Wednesday, the eve of a Montana special election, Republican House candidate Greg Gianforte was seen body-slamming and punching a reporter who dared to ask him about the GOP healthcare bill. An audio recording seemed to back up witness accounts, and Gianforte was charged with misdemeanor assault.

The next day, Montana voters sent Gianforte to Congress.

Perhaps there’s a disconnect between how people react in public to such a stunning development and how they vote in private, but if it had been up to The Times’ letter writers, the only thing Gianforte would have been delivering on Thursday was an apology, not a victory speech.

Encino resident Branden Frankel doesn’t like where this is headed:

One can draw a direct line from President Trump’s grotesque declaration that journalists are the enemies of the American people to the actions of now Congressman-elect Greg Gianforte. And one can draw a direct line from the hateful, paranoid garbage peddled by Fox News and other right-wing news outlets to the election of Donald Trump. Trump himself is without equal when it comes to peddling conspiracy theories.

One need only look at recent history — for example when a man showed up with a gun at a Washington pizza parlor in response to an outlandish conspiracy theory about a child sex ring run by Hillary Clinton — to see where we are headed. If politicians, who were once upon a time supposed to be role models, start assaulting journalists, it’s only a matter of time before an armed, brainwashed lunatic kills one.

Gianforte body-slams a journalist to the ground and breaks his glasses, and this is fine to the citizens in Montana, who go on to elect him to Congress. Bully culture reins supreme in the era of Trump. No one is going to tell the people of Montana how to vote, and they are going to elect a despicable Neanderthal if they want.

But should I be surprised? When the president of the United States shoves aside a prime minister from another country apparently because he wants to be in the front of the pack, then straightens his suit to look good for the photographers, this is just the new standard of political behavior.

How low can we sink? Truly, how low?

As I listened to the recording of the attack on the reporter, the image of a 1950s movie hero flashed across my mind. Gianforte (played by Gary Cooper) is in the role of the iconic western figure standing up for his rights, versus the city slicker reporter:

“Sheriff, I reckon I got a little riled when he said them things. I’m sorry.”

“No need, Greg. Let’s just say he slipped and fell, and leave it at that, shall we?”

Less amusingly, I thought of the assault on Sen. Charles Sumner by Rep. Preston Brooks in 1856. Sometimes it feels to me as if I’m living in a “Looney Tunes” version of American democracy.

[polychronopolous]

Have you also noticed how alot of these websites have shut down their comment sections?

They live in a complete bubble from the rest of the country.

[Dos Equis]

The mainstream media is absolutely clueless. They are in complete denial in how much this country truly despises them.

Body slam a journalist, win an election: Readers see ominous signs in Gianforte's victory



On Wednesday, the eve of a Montana special election, Republican House candidate Greg Gianforte was seen body-slamming and punching a reporter who dared to ask him about the GOP healthcare bill. An audio recording seemed to back up witness accounts, and Gianforte was charged with misdemeanor assault.

The next day, Montana voters sent Gianforte to Congress.

Perhaps there’s a disconnect between how people react in public to such a stunning development and how they vote in private, but if it had been up to The Times’ letter writers, the only thing Gianforte would have been delivering on Thursday was an apology, not a victory speech.

Encino resident Branden Frankel doesn’t like where this is headed:

One can draw a direct line from President Trump’s grotesque declaration that journalists are the enemies of the American people to the actions of now Congressman-elect Greg Gianforte. And one can draw a direct line from the hateful, paranoid garbage peddled by Fox News and other right-wing news outlets to the election of Donald Trump. Trump himself is without equal when it comes to peddling conspiracy theories.

One need only look at recent history — for example when a man showed up with a gun at a Washington pizza parlor in response to an outlandish conspiracy theory about a child sex ring run by Hillary Clinton — to see where we are headed. If politicians, who were once upon a time supposed to be role models, start assaulting journalists, it’s only a matter of time before an armed, brainwashed lunatic kills one.

Gianforte body-slams a journalist to the ground and breaks his glasses, and this is fine to the citizens in Montana, who go on to elect him to Congress. Bully culture reins supreme in the era of Trump. No one is going to tell the people of Montana how to vote, and they are going to elect a despicable Neanderthal if they want.

But should I be surprised? When the president of the United States shoves aside a prime minister from another country apparently because he wants to be in the front of the pack, then straightens his suit to look good for the photographers, this is just the new standard of political behavior.

How low can we sink? Truly, how low?

As I listened to the recording of the attack on the reporter, the image of a 1950s movie hero flashed across my mind. Gianforte (played by Gary Cooper) is in the role of the iconic western figure standing up for his rights, versus the city slicker reporter:

“Sheriff, I reckon I got a little riled when he said them things. I’m sorry.”

“No need, Greg. Let’s just say he slipped and fell, and leave it at that, shall we?”

Less amusingly, I thought of the assault on Sen. Charles Sumner by Rep. Preston Brooks in 1856. Sometimes it feels to me as if I’m living in a “Looney Tunes” version of American democracy.

Yep.  If they keep this up there just be a historic result in 2018, where the minority party actually loses seats in a midterm election.  

[Yamcha]

Yep.  If they keep this up there just be a historic result in 2018, where the minority party actually loses seats in a midterm election.  

If 2018 goes well, the republicans would have enough power to call for a convention of states.

It would never happen, but I basque in the thought of the MSM meltdown if it did happen.

[Yamcha]

An oldie but goodie:

National Reveiw: The less racist the South gets, the more Republican it becomes.

http://archive.is/pRa8J#selection-711.1-711.64

[Dos Equis]

If 2018 goes well, the republicans would have enough power to call for a convention of states.

It would never happen, but I basque in the thought of the MSM meltdown if it did happen.

Constitutional convention requires two thirds of the states to agree too, no? 

[Yamcha]

Constitutional convention requires two thirds of the states to agree too, no? 

Yes.

It would never happen though; even if the Repubs were able to get 2/3's.

But could you imagine the Liberal/Media reaction?! It would be like Trump winning x10.

[Straw Man]

Trump won Montana by 20 points in a state that has traditionally gone for Republicans

Gianforte’s won by 7 points with about 2/3rd of the people voting early

[Yamcha]

Trump won Montana by 20 points in a state that has traditionally gone for Republicans

Gianforte’s won by 7 points with about 2/3rd of the people voting early

So is that considered a "win" for Democrats? lol

[Straw Man]

So is that considered a "win" for Democrats? lol

Did I say that?

just pointing out that this guy won by a much smaller margin since Trump got in office

Next special election is next month in Georgia

We'll see how that goes

Also SCOTUS recently dealt a couple of blows to Repubs in North Carolina

Things change slowly

Enjoy the Snowflake in Chief while you can

[Dos Equis]

Yes.

It would never happen though; even if the Repubs were able to get 2/3's.

But could you imagine the Liberal/Media reaction?! It would be like Trump winning x10.

Yeah I doubt it happens.  And cannot imagine the media's reaction could get any worse than it is now.  lol

[polychronopolous]

If 2018 goes well, the republicans would have enough power to call for a convention of states.

It would never happen, but I basque in the thought of the MSM meltdown if it did happen.

That is pretty amazing. I need to read more into it.

Should not surprise me though.

The Democrats are being absolutely gutted on the state level outside of the deep blue coastal regions.

Complete meltdown mode.

[Howard]

So is that considered a "win" for Democrats? lol

LOL, what the liberal left fails to grasp is voters like my wife and I are NOT for liberal principles.
We are anti- Trump, NOT anti-conservatism.
ANY decent, competent republican is BETTER then Hillary.
BUT, Hillary is better then Trump, which shows how bad I think Trump is.

We think Hillary was a flawed candidate and Bernie is a self proclaimed socialist.
The DNC has drifted even farther left now and won't get our votes.
Remember ,we've voted 100% republican since 2012 , except for Hillary in 2016.

We are the new breed of " Never Trump" voters.
Hillary was bad but still better then Trump .
However, we think Pence, Rubio Cruz, etc is a lot better then Hillary.

If the Presidential candidates were all in a WYHI line up , Trump is the ugly tranny with 5 O'clock shadow.
To me he's an absolute train wreck of a President.

My wife and I would be VERY happy to see Trump resign and have Pence become President.
I always thought Trump lacked the temperament and experience to be an effective President.

Having good policies is VERY different from implementing them thru our government.
Trump has failed to work effectively with congress and his MAGA was a con job.

[polychronopolous]

LOL, what the liberal left fails to grasp is voters like my wife and I are NOT for liberal principles.
We are anti- Trump, NOT anti-conservatism.
ANY decent, competent republican is BETTER then Hillary.
BUT, Hillary is better then Trump, which shows how bad I think Trump is.

We think Hillary was a flawed candidate and Bernie is a self proclaimed socialist.
The DNC has drifted even farther left now and won't get our votes.
Remember ,we've voted 100% republican since 2012 , except for Hillary in 2016.

We are the new breed of " Never Trump" voters.
Hillary was bad but still better then Trump .
However, we think Pence, Rubio Cruz, etc is a lot better then Hillary.

If the Presidential candidates were all in a WYHI line up , Trump is the ugly tranny with 5 O'clock shadow.
To me he's an absolute train wreck of a President.

My wife and I would be VERY happy to see Trump resign and have Pence become President.
I always thought Trump lacked the temperament and experience to be an effective President.

Having good policies is VERY different from implementing them thru our government.
Trump has failed to work effectively with congress and his MAGA was a con job.

Coming from a guy who signed his divorce papers, slid it to the left then reached over to the right side of the desk and signed into a marriage certificate with the same pen.

The guy is less than 15% into his first term and you are ready to send him to the gallows.

You need to calm down, sir.

[Howard]

Coming from a guy who signed his divorce papers, slid it to the left then reached over to the right side of the desk and signed into a marriage certificate with the same pen.

The guy is less than 15% into his first term and you are ready to send him to the gallows.

You need to calm down, sir.

You got me with that one 

I think Trump's a buffoon and unless he makes a drastic change of course, that opinion won't change.
However, in fairness I'll judge him on what he does in office and what actually comes out on this Russia deal.
So far, he's been pretty ineffective working with congress and the Russia mess looks bad.
We'll see...

I'm a huge Mike Pence fan and would love to see him as POTUS.
BUT, I respect the system and refuse to back throwing Trump out of office without solid proof of major crimes.

[Yamcha]

Did I say that?

just pointing out that this guy won by a much smaller margin since Trump got in office

Next special election is next month in Georgia

We'll see how that goes

 


The democrats are bound to win a hotly contested seat eventually, and when they do I bet I know what the narrative will be...  "something, something... This is Trump's Fault... Republicans are in trouble."

[Howard]

The democrats are bound to win a hotly contested seat eventually, and when they do I bet I know what the narrative will be...  "something, something... This is Trump's Fault... Republicans are in trouble."

Trump's not helping the GOP, but, we "never Trump" voters aren't voting for liberal dems any time soon.

[polychronopolous]

You got me with that one 

I think Trump's a buffoon and unless he makes a drastic change of course, that opinion won't change.
However, in fairness I'll judge him on what he does in office and what actually comes out on this Russia deal.
So far, he's been pretty ineffective working with congress and the Russia mess looks bad.
We'll see...

I'm a huge Mike Pence fan and would love to see him as POTUS.
BUT, I respect the system and refuse to back throwing Trump out of office without solid proof of major crimes.

It's all going to come down the economy.

If he can pass tax reform and we see solid growth and job creation going into 2020 he can 3 am tweet about Arnold's shit ratings or some reporter questioning him the wrong way and it simply isn't going to matter.

As I've said earlier, if you take into account his campaign/debate skills + the Democrats lack of a viable presidential candidate...

If he is sitting north of 40% on a legit presidential poll of LIKELY voters he WILL be delivered a second term.

He will literally just stand up on stage and clown his adversary, have the crowd in stitches, have the internet cranking out memes and he will win in a landslide.

The Rust Belt is becoming REDDER and the Coastal Areas BLUER and that is tailor made for another Trump Electoral College victory.

[Howard]

It's all going to come down the economy.

If he can pass tax reform and we see solid growth and job creation going into 2020 he can 3 am tweet about Arnold's shit ratings or some reporter questioning him the wrong way and it simply isn't going to matter.

As I've said earlier, if you take into account his campaign/debate skills + the Democrats lack of a viable presidential candidate...

If he is sitting north of 40% on a legit presidential poll of LIKELY voters he WILL be delivered a second term.

He will literally just stand up on stage and clown his adversary, have the crowd in stitches, have the internet cranking out memes and he will win in a landslide.

The Rust Belt is becoming REDDER and the Coastal Areas BLUER and that is tailor made for another Trump Electoral College victory.

I don't think that will happen, BUT you're giving a thoughtful, intelligent analysis of the political future.
The Russia scandal could be the wild card that does him in.

If and when he's found guilty of some crime related to Russia , EVERYTHING changes.
Sadly, for those like me, the liberal dems would benefit if Trump resigns .
The "never Trump" folks like me want intelligent, reasonable conservatives in office.

[Yamcha]

Trump's not helping the GOP, but, we "never Trump" voters aren't voting for liberal dems any time soon.

Please, enlighten me on which of the GOP candidates would have beaten Hillary in 2016?

[Howard]

Please, enlighten me on which of the GOP candidates would have beaten Hillary in 2016?

I think Rubio would have won beaten her worse then Trump did.
He'd have won the same states Trump took and gotten more votes in NYC and Cal.
No way to know for sure, but that's my analysis.

I'm looking at the here and now, NOT the election.
Trump's shown a complete lack of ability to work effectively with congress.
Fair or not, the Russia scandal sucks up all the air in the political room right now.

I honestly don't think things will end good for team Trump.

[Yamcha]

I think Rubio would have won beaten her worse then Trump did.
He'd have won the same states Trump took and gotten more votes in NYC and Cal.
No way to know for sure, but that's my analysis.

I'm looking at the here and now, NOT the election.
Trump's shown a complete lack of ability to work effectively with congress.
Fair or not, the Russia scandal sucks up all the air in the political room right now.

I honestly don't think things will end good for team Trump.

Pro-TPP Rubio would have won MI, PA, and WI?