Stock market fear/greed indicator

[bigkid]

Tell that to 60-85 year old retirees who lose 50-70% of the 401k's and IRA's.  Pretty devastating.  It's not just the initial crash, it takes another 5-10 years (average) for the market to play catch-up.

Young people can absorb stock market down periods much better seniors.  Even so, no one likes to lose money.

You're using hyperbole.  How many retirees are in 100% equities?  I hope none.  No one should be down 50%-70% in their portfolio in a year.  You're this sky is always falling guy.  Those guys are right once every 10-15 years and then we all have to hear about how they were right. 

[Mr Anabolic]

You're using hyperbole.  How many retirees are in 100% equities?  I hope none.  No one should be down 50%-70% in their portfolio in a year.  You're this sky is always falling guy.  Those guys are right once every 10-15 years and then we all have to hear about how they were right.  

No hyperbole, just observations.  I didn't say retirees were in 100% stocks, you did.  However, I know there are many who are trying to play catch up for 2008 and have put themselves in more risky positions.  Bonds are not as safe as they used to be either.

The sky is not always falling.  I could say you are a perma bull idiot, but I won't.  It's all about market cycles and timing.  I've been saying the market is due for another crash just within the past year, not for the last 10 years.  When it does crash, you'll probably never post in this thread again.  

[SOMEPARTS]

You'd be surprised how many older passive investors there are with hundreds of thousands in equities controlled by somebody else...with no more than a couple hundred bucks in cash, 5-10k in the bank, house not paid off, driving a new car with a 7-year loan on it and not one ounce of gold or silver. These are the people that get crushed in the market over and over.

[Mr Anabolic]

For those keeping score at home, the S&P is +29% and gold is -1.8% from then to now. I’m not trying to pick on you because I’ve been short this market, but you have to accept the fact that NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING. Experts can’t predict directional market moves including getbig experts. You can’t call for corrections and large down days every so often and then come back and act like you told us so.

Anybody can cherry pick timelines and pit one asset class against another.  Nevertheless, the stock market (RE and bonds) is a bubble right now and is the most overvalued it's ever has been in history.  I've mentioned that here many times.  Of course no one can predict exact movements at precise moments, but being fully invested in the market right now is not a good idea.  I expect a huge crash between 2018-2019.  I stand by my words.

Gold is protection insurance against financial/economic downturns.  It holds it's value over time... do you deny this?   Again, timing is everything and the time own and accumulate PMs is now, while they are undervalued in comparison to everything else that is overvalued.  

There are a lot of people in this forum who need/want instant gratification.  That's not investing.

[bigkid]

No hyperbole, just observations.  I didn't say retirees were in 100% stocks, you did.  However, I know there are many who are trying to play catch up for 2008 and have put themselves in more risky positions.  Bonds are not as safe as they used to be either.

The sky is not always falling.  I could say you are a perma bull idiot, but I won't.  It's all about market cycles and timing.  I've been saying the market is due for another crash just within the past year, not for the last 10 years.  When it does crash, you'll probably never post in this thread again.  

How are retirees losing 50-70% an observation?  I'm in almost 90% equities, in the money I have invested and my max draw down in 2008 was 39%.  The S&P's worst return in the last 30 years is -37%.  Is this one of your doomsday predictions? Perma bull idiot.  Nice passive aggressiveness.  Who wouldn't be a bull?  Being a bull the last 100 years has been a lot more profitable then being a market timing contrarian. 

[Rambone]

Anybody can cherry pick timelines and pit one asset class against another.  Nevertheless, the stock market (RE and bonds) is a bubble right now and is the most overvalued it's ever has been in history.  I've mentioned that here many times.  Of course no one can predict exact movements at precise moments, but being fully invested in the market right now is not a good idea.  I expect a huge crash between 2018-2019.  I stand by my words.

Gold is protection insurance against financial/economic downturns.  It holds it's value over time... do you deny this?   Again, timing is everything and the time own and accumulate PMs is now, while they are undervalued in comparison to everything else that is overvalued.  

There are a lot of people in this forum who need/want instant gratification.  That's not investing.

I took equities which you said were in and I quote “a hyper bubble” and pitted it against gold which you said to buy at that time and used the date that you posted on. That’s the furthest thing from cherry picking! And yes, timing is everything and if they listened to you they’d have a heck of a lot less money. You’ve been calling for a bubble to burst for years now just like Dr. Doom! I’d love to have a further sell off. I love volatility, but I’m not going to preach and predict markets because that’s just silly.

[Mr Anabolic]

I took equities which you said were in and I quote “a hyper bubble” and pitted it against gold which you said to buy at that time and used the date that you posted on. That’s the furthest thing from cherry picking! And yes, timing is everything and if they listened to you they’d have a heck of a lot less money. You’ve been calling for a bubble to burst for years now just like Dr. Doom! I’d love to have a further sell off. I love volatility, but I’m not going to preach and predict markets because that’s just silly.

You're speaking in hindsight, not hard to do.  10% the those S&P gains you mentioned evaporated in 1 week.  Easy come, easy go I guess.  Don't worry, it's only money.  lol

I advocate accumulate PMs gradually while they're undervalued, I never said buy as much as possible at one time.  

You seem more interesting in trying to prove I'm wrong than realizing/admitting that most major asset classes are in a hyper-bubble.  Good luck to you.
 

[Mr Anabolic]

How are retirees losing 50-70% an observation?  I'm in almost 90% equities, in the money I have invested and my max draw down in 2008 was 39%.  The S&P's worst return in the last 30 years is -37%.  Is this one of your doomsday predictions? Perma bull idiot.  Nice passive aggressiveness.  Who wouldn't be a bull?  Being a bull the last 100 years has been a lot more profitable then being a market timing contrarian. 

I made my points already.  It's not doom, it's all about timing.  You have reading comprehension issues.

[Rambone]

You're speaking in hindsight, not hard to do.  10% the those S&P gains you mentioned evaporated in 1 week.  Easy come, easy go I guess.  Don't worry, it's only money.  lol

I advocate accumulate PMs gradually while they're undervalued, I never said buy as much as possible at one time.  

You seem more interesting in trying to prove I'm wrong than realizing/admitting that most major asset classes are in a hyper-bubble.  Good luck to you.
 

I have nothing against you. Just proving that your opinion in the markets means nothing.

[Voice of Doom]

Market was crashed deliberately as a warning to Trump and his new FED chairman.  The message was 'don't even think about raising rates' and 'be very careful on exposing the work of our rogue intelligence agencies'. 

They know Trump needs a strong economy to hold/gain seats at the midterms.  They're flexing their muscle.

[bigkid]

I made my points already.  It's not doom, it's all about timing.  You have reading comprehension issues.

You had points?  Study after study has shown that market timing doesn't work.  You're just another blowhard.

[Mr Anabolic]

You had points?  Study after study has shown that market timing doesn't work.  You're just another blowhard.

Sure it does.  Like I said, you buy very undervalued/hated assets and wait.   

[Mr Anabolic]

I have nothing against you. Just proving that your opinion in the markets means nothing.

Nothing against you either.  You're right, they mean nothing. 

My own opinions/observations have served me well in life.  That's all that matters.         

[polychronopolous]

Sure it does.  Like I said, you buy very undervalued/hated assets and wait.   

Bitcoin back up to 10k by March?

[Mr Anabolic]

Bitcoin back up to 10k by March?

Funny thing is the stock market and blipcoin seem to be loosely correlated.  Blips go up, the market goes up... blips go down, the market goes down.   Could be coincidence, not sure yet.

[gib]

I've been saying the market is due for another crash just within the past year, not for the last 10 years.

Ahem (Feb 2014 below) ...

You must be very young and naïve.

The stock market is a huge bubble right now all pumped up by the Fed reserve. When this thing pops, it's gonna make the 1929 crash look like a picnic.

Every asset class has it's cycle... right now stocks and RE are NOT the place to be.

Buy gold and silver instead.

Dow was 16100 at the time of Mr A’s 2014 quote. And it went on to add a further 10000 points in the following years to 2018! (By comprison gold was around $1350 and today is also $1350. Also gold has produced zero yield whereas stocks produced a consistent yield over this time). RE also boomed during this period.

[gib]

Funny thing is the stock market and blipcoin seem to be loosely correlated.  Blips go up, the market goes up... blips go down, the market goes down.   Could be coincidence, not sure yet.

It is too early to tell I think but to me it seems that in the short term speculative money and lack of an ability to find value in other assets has been positive for BTC (eg there is a positive correlation).

The real test though is whether we will see a negative correlation in the event of a crisis. Eg BTC rallies strongly if everything else ranks as people move to a non fiat currency safe haven. It’s possible this could occur in the event of a massive crisis to the level that threatens the stability of banks. One of the reasons I suggest that anyone hold just a little BTC as a hedge for end of the world crisis type scenarios.

[gib]

Of course no one can predict exact movements at precise moments, but being fully invested in the market right now is not a good idea.

Gold is protection insurance against financial/economic downturns.  It holds it's value over time... do you deny this?  

Agree it’s not a good time to be fully invested in equities. However gold may not be the best hedge. Indeed if you look at the 2008 crisis holding cash (USD) was a significantly better hedge than holding gold. (Holding a broad portfolio of gold mining stocks would have outperformed both gold and cash though).

[gib]

Human nature never changes.  I've dealt with the same thing many times.  

I lived in San Diego during the RE boom and crash.  I told people a crash was coming, they laughed at me.  Then 2006/07 came.  Oooops.

I had a few people at a 2017 Chirstmas party tell me the stock market will never crash.  lol

I told people on here blipcoin was a Ponzi bubble mania, they laughed, told me I was jealous, and I "didn't understand it" and "it's a new revolution" and the most ridiculous one, "blipcoin will hit $1 million"  lol  

I have bliptards on here telling me gold is worthless.     It goes on and on.  

Successful investing is all about timing and being able to identify undervalued assets.  Buy low, wait, then sell high.  I've done it consistently, over and over again.

Gold is as worthless as bitcoin. The reason being that despite production costs neither can be valued as neither produce a yield and both are dependent simply on the collective agreement of value by those who trade them.

[MAXX]

Gold is as worthless as bitcoin. The reason being that despite production costs neither can be valued as neither produce a yield and both are dependent simply on the collective agreement of value by those who trade them.

major differences

gold is a natural resource like oil or any raw material and is used and has uses in the real World. It will always have a demand, even 10,000 years from now.

Bitcoin is a fictional currency that could get abandoned at any time.

[gib]

major differences

gold is a natural resource like oil or any raw material and is used and has uses in the real World. It will always have a demand, even 10,000 years from now.

Bitcoin is a fictional currency that could get abandoned at any time.

maxx - lets not derail this thread. Plenty of discussion and explanation on the "BTC to hit 5000 thread". Just suffice to say that whilst both BTC and gold have "real world uses" both are traded at values far far beyond that, and hence are inherently speculative and hence cannot be valued due to lack of productive yield. And by the way both could "be abandoned at any time" (indeed their entire prices are dependent on the degree, or lack of, collective "abandonment"). With respect, if you don't understand these simple concepts, please educate yourself. A good starting point would be Buffet's comments on gold and why he would never buy it. And then just try to think things through and digest things mentally to their logical conclusion, in the absence of any irrational emotion.

[polychronopolous]

maxx - lets not derail this thread. Plenty of discussion and explanation on the "BTC to hit 5000 thread". Just suffice to say that whilst both BTC and gold have "real world uses" both are traded at values far far beyond that, and hence are inherently speculative and hence cannot be valued due to lack of productive yield. And by the way both could "be abandoned at any time" (indeed their entire prices are dependent on the degree, or lack of, collective "abandonment"). With respect, if you don't understand these simple concepts, please educate yourself. A good starting point would be Buffet's comments on gold and why he would never buy it. And then just try to think things through and digest things mentally to their logical conclusion, in the absence of any irrational emotion.

"Civilized people don't buy gold" - Charlie Munger

[Mr Anabolic]

Ahem (Feb 2014 below) ...

Dow was 16100 at the time of Mr A’s 2014 quote. And it went on to add a further 10000 points in the following years to 2018! (By comprison gold was around $1350 and today is also $1350. Also gold has produced zero yield whereas stocks produced a consistent yield over this time). RE also boomed during this period.

That was 4 years ago, not 10 years ago.  Any trader knows that markets can remain irrational for a very long time, especially since the algos now control most of the trading.  After a while, reality sets in.  

I started buying gold in 2002.  Go look at what the price was then.  You act like this is the only asset I own! - lol  I added heavily to my gold and silver positions in 2016 and 2017 in anticipation of the market turmoil that is coming.  

For every incorrect call I've made, I could find 100's of yours.  I walk my talk and stick to my beliefs, but you are totally disingenuous pump and dumper.  

[Mr Anabolic]

maxx - lets not derail this thread. Plenty of discussion and explanation on the "BTC to hit 5000 thread". Just suffice to say that whilst both BTC and gold have "real world uses" both are traded at values far far beyond that, and hence are inherently speculative and hence cannot be valued due to lack of productive yield. And by the way both could "be abandoned at any time" (indeed their entire prices are dependent on the degree, or lack of, collective "abandonment"). With respect, if you don't understand these simple concepts, please educate yourself. A good starting point would be Buffet's comments on gold and why he would never buy it. And then just try to think things through and digest things mentally to their logical conclusion, in the absence of any irrational emotion.

Buffet is a hypocrite and insider trading crony capitalist.  He's in deep with the criminal banking establishment.  His father was a decent man.  I don't no WTF happened to Warren though.

[Mr Anabolic]

Gold is as worthless as bitcoin. The reason being that despite production costs neither can be valued as neither produce a yield and both are dependent simply on the collective agreement of value by those who trade them.

Well, at least you are correct about blipcoins.

You cannot change 5000+ years of monetary history.  I know you would like to, but you can't.

If gold is worthless than why do banks and governments hoard gold?