Dow Crash Coming To Your 401k

[IroNat]

Shiller P/E

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

[IroNat]

"Buffett Indicator" = Ratio of Total Market Cap to GDP

 

https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php

[Montague]

"Buffett Indicator" = Ratio of Total Market Cap to GDP

 

https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php

Do you ever read Buffett's "letters?"

[IroNat]

Do you ever read Buffett's "letters?"

Not in quite a few years.

How about you?

[Montague]

Not in quite a few years.

How about you?

No.
I've heard and seen them mentioned/referenced, but I've never looked them up or known anyone who's personally read them.

I understand they're available to the public; at least eventually.
Is it only the archives that are accessible to the general public?
Did you personally get any benefit from them?

[IroNat]

No.
I've heard and seen them mentioned/referenced, but I've never looked them up or known anyone who's personally read them.

I understand they're available to the public; at least eventually.
Is it only the archives that are accessible to the general public?
Did you personally get any benefit from them?

Nope.

Of course everyone always talks about Buffett but there is also Munger.  So it is a team with synergy.

Buffett/Munger operate on a different level with access to information an ordinary investor could not obtain.

They can call up a CEO and ask the guy what is going on.  Basically insiders.

Also much more intelligent than the average person.  Much more.  And mentally tougher and emotionally stronger.

I've read the books Buffett recommends, even the very technical ones.  I came to the conclusion that I could never do what Buffett does because I just don't have access to the info he does.  He is inside.

I also concluded that the extra percent or two I MIGHT get from doing all that work and putting in all that time would not be worth it.  So I just invest in broad market index funds.

I wish I had the money years ago to invest in Bershire Hathaway.  Like 40 years ago.  Buffett is to old now for me to do it.  Buffett is late 80s and Munger is 90s.  Whoever takes over will not be another Buffett/Munger.

[SOMEPARTS]

The rumblings are starting. First mainstream news story I can recall that is this bearish. Of course they go political by citing policy errors as a factor....no actual facts on that yet, just opinion really at this point.

WSJ poll of economists - 59% say 2020, and another 22% say 2021...so that means that 8 in 10 economists think that recession is 2-3 years off yet. The timing is interesting...


https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/time-get-ready-next-recession-190604738.html

[IroNat]

Most bull markets last 8-10 years.

Usually takes something unusual to trigger the fall like some financial shenanigans.

[loco]

Stocks climb as energy sector rallies; Wall Street tries to look past tariff spat

Published: June 27, 2018 11:11 a.m. ET

U.S. stock-market indexes were rallying Wednesday morning, with the energy sector leading the charge on the back of gains in crude-oil futures. Wall Street buying appetite also appeared to be stoked after the Trump administration said it would use existing laws to restrict Chinese investment in the U.S. instead of relying on more aggressive executive orders.

What did the benchmarks do?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.74% rose 190 points, or 0.8%, to 24,477, trading above its 200-day moving average.

The S&P 500 index SPX, +0.46% advanced 13 points, or 0.5%, to 2,736, with all 11 main sectors trading higher. Energy shares led the gain, up 1.9%, thanks in part to a rally in oil prices. Materials and industrials were up both up by at least 1%.

The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.16% rose 14 points, or 0.2% to 7,575.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-slide-200-points-on-fears-of-a-full-scale-trade-war-2018-06-27

[Neurotoxin]

Opinion unchanged.

Dead cat bounce anticipated.



-NT

[Neurotoxin]

Down, down down.....more to come.

Enjoy!


-NT

[Coach is Back!]

Opinion unchanged.

Dead cat bounce anticipated.



-NT

Not at all. It was expected that's why no one is freaking out.

[Primemuscle]

Worried?  Nervous?  That's no way to live in your retirement.  I know you're already there, but this might still help you:

How to Make Your Money Last: The Indispensable Retirement Guide

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00P434BTE/?coliid=I2BXIZR3SHN71W&colid=1M5AHT055QDT9&psc=0&ref_=lv_ov_lig_dp_it

Thanks for your suggestion and link. I've checked it out and will read the book later on. Actually, I am in pretty good shape financially. One thing about being older is that I spend less money than I did when I was younger.

[loco]

Thanks for your suggestion and link. I've checked it out and will read the book later on. Actually, I am in pretty good shape financially. One thing about being older is that I spend less money than I did when I was younger.

Then you have no reason to be worried or nervous.  Good for you.  Enjoy your retirement!

[chaos]

When is this crash coming

[IroNat]

When is this crash coming

1) Right after you dump all your bonds, CDs, cash and load up on stocks.
2) When your barber starts giving you stock advices.
4) Just before you are set to retire.

[Neurotoxin]

When is this crash coming

In the process. Stage 3 distribution.



- NT

[GigantorX]

In the process. Stage 3 distribution.



- NT

I believe Dow Theory states that distribution is the first stage of a downturn, but I get your point.

The question is, where to go from here if you are correct?

[Neurotoxin]

I believe Dow Theory states that distribution is the first stage of a downturn, but I get your point.

The question is, where to go from here if you are correct?

1)  accumulation

2)  mark up

3)  distribution

4)  decline

[loco]

There will be another recession in the USA, in the near or somewhat distant, or very distant future.  The stock market will at first surfer, but will later recover.  Mark my words!

- El Profeta

[Yamcha]

 

[chaos]

Been all doom and gloom since before the election in 2016, still waiting.

[IroNat]

The balloon has to pop at some point.

No one knows when but we're getting closer.

Keep some dry powder available.

My advice is consider how you would feel if your stock portfolio dropped 50%.

If you are close to retirement would you still be ok financially or would you be in trouble?

If your answer is "in trouble" you have too much in stocks and better dial it back.

A 50% drop is well within the realm of possibility.

[Irongrip400]

The balloon has to pop at some point.

No one knows when but we're getting closer.

Keep some dry powder available.

My advice is consider how you would feel if your stock portfolio dropped 50%.

If you are close to retirement would you still be ok financially or would you be in trouble?

If your answer is "in trouble" you have too much in stocks and better dial it back.

A 50% drop is well within the realm of possibility.

Correct.  I believe we are in the 7th inning of an extra innings game though.  I say 2020 before it crashes and by then I should be ahead of the curve.  I am not near retirement anyway so I will just keep on working.  Toll Brothers and the other big home builders say they don't see an end in sight yet.  Construction is still cranking, and if it slows up, all Trump needs to do is dump a bunch of money in infrastructure projects (which he hasn't done yet) and fire it back up.

[chaos]

The balloon has to pop at some point.

Oh yeah.