I highly doubt that. The Russians were steam rolling their way towards the Germans after taking a beating from the surprise attack in the beginning. The Russians got their military industry going and completely out numbered the Germans with both soldiers and guns/tanks. Hitler made the same mistake Napoleon did centuries ago; sending troops into the huge Russian planes with only summer clothing hoping the whole of Russia would be taken in just a few months. Thousands of soldiers froze to death in the winter and tanks malfunctioned in the freezing cold. If anything Europe would be divided by Russia and the rest of Europe if the US didn't enter the European war and only took on Japan.
If Britain was successfully invaded in 1940-41, then there would have been no opposition in North Africa and no navy to oppose the Axis powers especially in the Mediterranean.
With a collaborator regime, the armed forces of Britain and their resources would have also been absorbed into the Axis war effort.
I also believe the US would have been more hesitant to launch an invasion of Europe and this would have freed up the western front, North Africa and Italy.
Without the carpet bombing, Italy would also not have surrendered and without British involvement in North Africa they would control the entire region.