Covid 19 - Coronavirus - Two Words - "Mystery" and "Virus" from China

[SOMEPARTS]

Here is the bullet point info from a Sunday Goldman Sachs call on the situation. This may well be the most balanced take I've seen for the long term AKA without the media panic...



    50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

    70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

    Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

    The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

    Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

    Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

    There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

    China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

    Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

    S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

    There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

    In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

    Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

    There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11 than it does like 2008.

[hardgainerj]

top level stupidity

[Primemuscle]

That is the info going around, and also why schools closing are first thing that has been done after flight cancellations.

The very young spread it to older people but are mostly without symptoms themselves.

I am well aware of how young people are little germ factories. Their parent's often send them to school sick. They sneeze and cough openly and touch everything. Anyone who has ever worked around school aged children knows this; the first year you catch everything they bring. Subsequently, you build up an immunity to their germs and you no longer constantly get sick. The same thing happens in the medical profession. However, if a new virus comes along, you're screwed.

[SOMEPARTS]

The USA lockdowns are coming. They are talking about sending everyone $1000 a month....in other words minimum basic income. Army national guard setting up a presence in my old hometown according to family. Local Giant Eagle(large grocery chain midwest) manager said they've been told today roughly 50% of orders will fill from their warehouses and only 20% of meat.




    US death toll hits 100
    Confirmed coronavirus cases in the US pass 5k
    EU leaders close borders to non-EU citizens
    Merkel says 'joint debt options' discussed by EU leaders
    WH planning $850 billion economic rescue package
    2nd rescue package still stalled over Senates' 'minor' changes
    Cuomo reports 432 new cases, bringing state total over 1,000 and retaking No. 1 spot
    Fla. Gov. Ron DeSantis closes all bars and nightclubs
    Trump doubles down on "Chinese virus" phrasing after Beijing complains
    Kentucky Derby postponed until September
    UK announces £330 billion rescue package, strengthens police powers
    Goldman says "world is in a recession"
    Luxembourg declares 'state of emergency'
    Mick Mulvaney self-isolating in SC after niece had contact with Brazilian official
    EU eases rules, allows some state aid to companies
    Gov Pritzker confirms 1st death in Illinois, confirmed cases hit 22
    France says deficit will blow out to 3.9%
    Lindsey Graham opposes "$1,000 per person" plan
    Esper says 2 Navy hospitals can help with response, but building ad hoc hospitals 'probably best left up to the states'
    NYC Mayor says "absolutely considering" shelter-in-place order
    De Blasio says 'no clusters in New York'
    Amazon stops shipments of "non-essential" goods to warehouses
    Moscow denies reports of citywide quarantine
    Turkey jails 19 over 'provocative' social media posts
    Spain turns away 500 cars after setting up border checkpoints
    Pakistan reports first death
    S&P warns "sudden economic stop" will trigger deep recession
    Tom Hanks, Rita Wilson leave quarantine
    Poland says minister has caught the virus
    8 US banks access discount window
    Trump slams Michigan's Democratic Gov.

[Notomorrow]

Any terrorist nation with bio terrorist attack ideas of smallpox or some shit must be watching how we are handling this.

[SOMEPARTS]

Any terrorist nation with bio terrorist attack ideas of smallpox or some shit China must be watching how we are handling this.

[gib]

New York and California leading the way in infections. (IronCross = total moron).

[Kwon]

Any terrorist nation with bio terrorist attack ideas of smallpox or some shit must be watching how we are handling this.

Didn't China design the SARS-Covid19?

Maybe 19 is a prototype for the real thing.

[Teutonic Knight 1]

Didn't China design the SARS-Covid19?

Maybe 19 is a prototype for the real thing.

NOPE !.

Regarding to Russians, Brits fucked up something in Wuhan !.

Peter Doherty Institute from Melbourne is developing vaccine , obviously ahead of others (excluding Israel).

[Royalty]

Didn't China design the SARS-Covid19?

Maybe 19 is a prototype for the real thing.

“19” designates 2019, the year that it was discovered by WHO

CO= Corona
Vi= Virus
D= Disease
19= 2019

[Teutonic Knight 1]

New York and California leading the way in infections. (IronCross = total genius).

NOT true !.

Post pics of yours 'people on the ground' in NY,SF & Ulan Bator ! .

                                   


Naive question, but why Somalia don't save the World & develop vaccine  .

[gib]

NOT true !.

Here you go idiot. Again, I told you so.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

[Primemuscle]

New York and California leading the way in infections. (IronCross = total moron).

California has the biggest population of any state in the U.S. New York City has the most people of any city in the U.S. It shouldn't come as a surprise that those two states would have a high count of coronavirus cases.

[gib]

It’s too late to be contained. So focus needs to be on treatment.

Mortality rate of those infected is hard to gauge. But it seems to hit hardest men aged 50-70. Highest death risk is for smokers or those with other pre existing conditions. Kids seem to be super spreaders but at the same time quite resilient showing hardly any symptoms. Next few weeks will see a very sharp rise and panic. Will ramp up in New York and San Fran first. These is not yet any standard treatment and certainly no vaccine.

Ironcross - Now is a good time to remind you of what I posted in January, when you expressed incredulity at what I told you was going to happen in the US.

How can it be, that I know 2 months prior to now, what was going to happen ...?

As of today:

New York confirmed infected = 1706
California confirmed infected = 698

Do not doubt my wisdom or foresight.

[gib]

California has the biggest population of any state in the U.S. New York City has the most people of any city in the U.S. It shouldn't come as a surprise that those two states would have a high count of coronavirus cases.

Correct, although its not just a function of size, but also international travel. You would likely see an early uptick in Washington DC too, although this in part will be a function of Government officials having more access to testing kits and more focused on rigid reporting.

[Royalty]

Correct, although its not just a function of size, but also international travel. You would likely see an early uptick in Washington DC too, although this in part will be a function of Government officials having more access to testing kits and more focused on rigid reporting.

Gib I doubted you at first, but your Corona predictions and concerns from day one have played out as you were predicting

[gib]

Gib I doubted you at first, but your Corona predictions and concerns from day one have played out as you were predicting

Thank you.

[SOMEPARTS]

This whole idea of testing kits being a problem...really? How can it be an issue when they've said 50% or more of people will end up getting the virus.

After that - whether you go to the hospital depends on your symptoms...most don't get severe symptoms so why test for it if 160 million people will get it?

It truly defies logic..

[Kwon]

Thank you.


gib





What will it look like in late April?

[Primemuscle]

I just made an appointment with my doctor for a tetanus and diphtheria shot tomorrow. Before I could schedule the appointment, I had to assure them that I don't have any coronavirus symptoms. While I was at it, I called and cancelled and appointment with the optometrist and another with my dentist. I found out my dentist's office is closed until April 2nd, so they had already cancelled my appointment for me.

[gib]

Thank you.


gib





What will it look like in late April?

By late April regions earlier affected will be in a stabilization / recovery phase. Globally we will be seeing the light at end of tunnel. But virus itself will be with us and will re-emerge from time to time.

[Teutonic Knight 1]

Ironcross - Now is a good time to remind you of what I posted in January, when you expressed incredulity at what I told you was going to happen in the US.

How can it be, that I know 2 months prior to now, what was going to happen ...?

As of today:

New York confirmed infected = 1706
California confirmed infected = 698

Do not doubt my wisdom or foresight.

Abdulah U know shit,  U  are just re-reporting already reported shit.

So, where is this : my people on the ground .

I travel continuously around Australasia/Oceania/SEA  & where is "yours mob" , so how can I cross borders & enjoy to the max.

Win on gambling or horse racing, if U have a wisdom ( ).

Hey old Afro, who is gonna win UEFA Champions league & score 

[Teutonic Knight 1]

Gib I doubted you at first, but your Corona predictions and concerns from day one have played out as you were predicting

No "prediction" for Russia/Mongolia/Fiji, ....................etc 

Didn't he "predict" massive numbers for Thailand too, but 1 per million of Thais have a FLU .

Ask him about rolling (chopped head, fuck knows of WHO) "prediction"..............

Get fucking real & stop baby crying , who give a fuck is something eliminates 10 mil's of jerks.

[Griffith]

No "prediction" for Russia/Mongolia/Fiji, ....................etc 

Didn't he "predict" massive numbers for Thailand too, but 1 per million of Thais have a FLU .

Ask him about rolling (chopped head, fuck knows of WHO) "prediction"..............

Get fucking real & stop baby crying , who give a fuck is something eliminates 10 mil's of jerks.

Thailand has had 1 death and 212 infections.

But the plague has obviously descended on the world and everything must be shut down so everyone can just starve or die of poverty to 'protect' against dying from the disease.

[SOMEPARTS]

    Mnuchin says wants to get checks in Americans' hands within 3 weeks
    BoE cuts rates, launches QE after 'emergency' meeting
    Confirmed cases in the US climbs ~50% as testing ramps up
    Connecticut reports 2nd death as US death toll hits 137
    NY reports ~600 new cases, bringing total to 2,959; death toll hits 21
    Cuomo signs NY unemployment-benefit expansion benefit package, warns of 'astronomical jump' in cases
    China reports zero new cases in Wuhan for first time in months.
    Treasury weighing 50- and 25-year bonds to finance stimulus package
    South Africa case total passes 150
    India halts incoming international flights for a week
    Hong Kong doctors find virus inside 2nd dog
    Spain total cases climb 28% overnight 
    Italian death toll expected to pass China's on Thursday  
    FedEx says drop in deliveries in China was smaller than expected
    UK gov't denies plans for London lockdown
    Amazon closes warehouse for 'deep clean' after worker tests positive
    Treatment trial in Wuhan yields disappointing results
    Germany's Bafin bans short selling
    Russia reports first death
    SPR to buy 30 million barrels immediately, will eventually buy 70 million
    Wuhan police erase record of 'admonition' delivered to Dr. Li Wenliang
    German gov plans to suspend debt brake on Monday
    Netherlands reports another jump in cases after unveiling stimulus package outline
    Switzerland warns situation rapidly deteriorating along the Italian border
    Tiffany closes all US stores