Author Topic: Covid 19 - We are all screwed - discuss  (Read 575350 times)

pellius

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3300 on: April 26, 2020, 08:45:17 PM »
Soon my friends.. TPTB will win the ultimate war and you will be at their mercy



And who exactly is "TPTB"?

Teutonic Knight 1

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3301 on: April 26, 2020, 09:02:39 PM »
For many reasons.

Must be something sexual  ;)

harmankardon1

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3302 on: April 26, 2020, 09:09:45 PM »
I'm Australian, love the trump!

TheGrinch

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3303 on: April 26, 2020, 10:57:58 PM »
And who exactly is "TPTB"?

The REAL owners of the world to whom the late George Carlin refers.

TheGrinch

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3304 on: April 26, 2020, 11:02:14 PM »

Primemuscle

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3305 on: April 26, 2020, 11:25:28 PM »

fixed  ;)

obw, any pics of you in the 3rd Reich 1945-1948  :D

I am so not an adopted American that your comments cracked me up.

Ever hear of the SAR (Sons of the American Revolution)? Probably not. My grandfather was a member which means if I wanted, I could be a member. So no there are no photos of me in the 3rd Reich. Which by the way was from 1933 until the end of World War II in Europe on May 8, 1945 and not the dates you claimed. At that time i was not yet a year old.

You fixed nothing because it was never broken. Guess history isn't your strong suit, huh?
 

Primemuscle

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3306 on: April 26, 2020, 11:35:27 PM »

Yeah, real "narcists" who donates his presidential salary !.

We don't have a president , we have very "competent" :

- Prime Minister on annual salary of $ 549 250

- Governor General on a/s of $ 425 000  (this guy can fire elected Aussie PM)

- Queen Elizabeth on a/s of  + $ 97 000 000

Which would you say is the higher of these two figures? The salary Trump says he donates or the taxes he avoids paying? If he's the rich man you all think he is, donating his annual salary of approximately $400,000 is like putting a buck in the tip jar at Starbucks. But hey, at least he's doing that.

booty

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3307 on: April 27, 2020, 12:45:04 AM »
I am not going to explain my reasons for strongly disliking Trump. Because I am the only female around these parts of the woods, it doesn’t mean you can use me to derail this thread. I know you are bored but I suggest you start taking some arimidex again. I am going to cook dinner and watch some Netflix.

pellius

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3308 on: April 27, 2020, 02:33:00 AM »
The REAL owners of the world to whom the late George Carlin refers.

And who are the "real owners of the world" that a comedian claims and you put so much trust in his word?

pellius

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3309 on: April 27, 2020, 02:38:02 AM »
I am not going to explain my reasons for strongly disliking Trump. Because I am the only female around these parts of the woods, it doesn’t mean you can use me to derail this thread. I know you are bored but I suggest you start taking some arimidex again. I am going to cook dinner and watch some Netflix.

Are you able to give any specific examples of Trump's incompetence? What he did and what you think should have been done.

And what does being the only woman on this thread have anything to do with backing up your claims? If PlainJane posted on this thread would this change anything?

booty

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3310 on: April 27, 2020, 03:28:57 AM »
Are you able to give any specific examples of Trump's incompetence? What he did and what you think should have been done.

And what does being the only woman on this thread have anything to do with backing up your claims? If PlainJane posted on this thread would this change anything?
Yes we do have another female. I forgot for a sec. I guess what I am saying is that I feel as though I am being asked to explain my reasons for disliking Trump while prime made it known he also didn’t like him. But I didn’t see anyone ask why that was the case. So I feel targeted.

pellius

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3311 on: April 27, 2020, 04:03:53 AM »
Yes we do have another female. I forgot for a sec. I guess what I am saying is that I feel as though I am being asked to explain my reasons for disliking Trump while prime made it known he also didn’t like him. But I didn’t see anyone ask why that was the case. So I feel targeted.

Prime has given many reasons for disliking Trump.

But I am not asking you that. I thought my question was very specific. What specific examples can you give of Trump's incompetence? What he actually did and what you think he should have done. A specific example. Not just saying "he was slow to act on the coronavirus." What he actually did and what you think he should have done?

Methyl m1ke

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3312 on: April 27, 2020, 04:19:11 AM »
Prime has given many reasons for disliking Trump.

But I am not asking you that. I thought my question was very specific. What specific examples can you give of Trump's incompetence? What he actually did and what you think he should have done. A specific example. Not just saying "he was slow to act on the coronavirus." What he actually did and what you think he should have done?

Take it EASY there partner. I know youre salty over being stuck at home another month (and counting) but theres no need to be inhospitable. Relax, take a deep breath, and just be glad you didnt die trying to steal a catalytic converter.

Man dies when car he was allegedly trying to steal from falls on top of him
February 22, 2020 at 11:57 PM HST - Updated February 23 at 5:01 AM
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (WDAF/CNN) - Police are investigating after a Missouri man was crushed to death by a car while allegedly trying to steal a part from it.

The incident happened Friday morning in a Kansas City, Missouri, parking lot and involved a Toyota Prius. The owner of the Prius, who did not want to be identified, says he was at work when he learned his car had crushed a man.

A person in another vehicle tried to lift the Prius off the man using a jack, according to the car’s owner, but the victim died at the scene.

Authorities say the man was trying to steal the car’s catalytic converter, a device that reduces toxic gases and pollutants from a vehicle’s exhaust system.
James Garten, a service adviser at KC Complete Auto, says Pruis’ catalytic converters contain valuable metals like palladium, rhodium and platinum, and thieves can make a quick buck off them.

“When it comes to catalytic converters being stolen, it’s a common occurrence,” Garten said. “They take them to different scrapyards, and they will scrap them out. Nowadays, a lot of scrapyards will take catalytic converters, but you have to supply them with titles.”

booty

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3313 on: April 27, 2020, 04:42:56 AM »
Prime has given many reasons for disliking Trump.

But I am not asking you that. I thought my question was very specific. What specific examples can you give of Trump's incompetence? What he actually did and what you think he should have done. A specific example. Not just saying "he was slow to act on the coronavirus." What he actually did and what you think he should have done?
Settle down Penis Lust. I don’t need to explain myself to anybody. It’s a joke that he’s a president. He is a joke.  I Hope life is good in Hawaii in isolation?  They are lifting some restrictions here in my state on Saturday and it’s so confusing that I wish things would remain in place. It’s just another way to try and issue us with fines.

Soul Crusher

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3314 on: April 27, 2020, 04:45:04 AM »
out of 3300 who tested positive in the Jail - 96% showed no symptoms at all!   This lockdown crap is sheer madness.
________________________ _____________

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN2270RX?


In four U.S. state prisons, nearly 3,300 inmates test positive for coronavirus -- 96% without symptoms
Linda So and Grant Smith

 

(Reuters) - When the first cases of the new coronavirus surfaced in Ohio’s prisons, the director in charge felt like she was fighting a ghost.

“We weren’t always able to pinpoint where all the cases were coming from,” said Annette Chambers-Smith, director of the Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction. As the virus spread, they began mass testing.

They started with the Marion Correctional Institution, which houses 2,500 prisoners in north central Ohio, many of them older with pre-existing health conditions. After testing 2,300 inmates for the coronavirus, they were shocked. Of the 2,028 who tested positive, close to 95% had no symptoms.

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“It was very surprising,” said Chambers-Smith, who oversees the state’s 28 correctional facilities.

As mass coronavirus testing expands in prisons, large numbers of inmates are showing no symptoms. In four state prison systems -- Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia -- 96% of 3,277 inmates who tested positive for the coronavirus were asymptomatic, according to interviews with officials and records reviewed by Reuters. That’s out of 4,693 tests that included results on symptoms.

The numbers are the latest evidence to suggest that people who are asymptomatic — contagious but not physically sick -- may be driving the spread of the virus, not only in state prisons that house 1.3 million inmates across the country, but also in communities across the globe. The figures also reinforce questions over whether testing of just people suspected of being infected is actually capturing the spread of the virus.

"It adds to the understanding that we have a severe undercount of cases in the U.S.,” said Dr. Leana Wen, adjunct associate professor of emergency medicine at George Washington University, said of the Reuters findings. “The case count is likely much, much higher than we currently know because of the lack of testing and surveillance."

Some people diagnosed as asymptomatic when tested for the coronavirus, however, may go on to develop symptoms later, according to researchers.

The United States has more people behind bars than any other nation, a total incarcerated population of nearly 2.3 million as of 2017 -- nearly half of which is in state prisons. Smaller numbers are locked in federal prisons and local jails, which typically hold people for relatively short periods as they await trial.

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State prison systems in Michigan, Tennessee and California have also begun mass testing -- checking for coronavirus infections in large numbers of inmates even if they show no sign of illness -- but have not provided specific counts of asymptomatic prisoners.

Tennessee said a majority of its positive cases didn’t show symptoms. In Michigan, state authorities said "a good number" of the 620 prisoners who tested positive for the coronavirus were asymptomatic. California’s state prison system would not release counts of asymptomatic prisoners.

Each state manages multiple prison facilities. Ohio, for instance, has 49,000 prisoners in 28 facilities. A total 3,837 inmates tested positive for the coronavirus in 15 of those facilities. But the state has not yet provided results on symptoms for 1,809 of them and did not identify the total number of tests conducted across the prison system.

Arkansas and Tennessee have also taken a targeted approach by conducting mass testing in several of their facilities. Michigan, North Carolina, California and Virginia have started with one facility each.

Most state prisons did not provide the age or other demographic details of those who tested positive for the coronavirus, which has killed more than 200,000 people globally, including more than 53,000 in the United States.

Reuters surveyed all 50 state prison systems. Of the 30 that responded, most are only testing inmates who show symptoms, suggesting they could be vastly undercounting the number infected by the coronavirus.

Florida and Texas, whose inmate populations are bigger than Ohio’s, report a combined total of just 931 cases -- far fewer than the 3,837 inmates who tested positive in Ohio. New York, the epicenter of the U.S. outbreak, has reported 269 positive cases among 51,000 inmates. All three states are testing only symptomatic prisoners.

“Prison agencies are almost certainly vastly undercounting the number of COVID cases among incarcerated persons,” said Michele Deitch, a corrections specialist and senior lecturer at the University of Texas. “Just as the experts are telling us in our free-world communities, the only way to get ahead of this outbreak is through mass testing.”

Prison officials in Florida and Texas said they were following guidance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention along with state health officials when testing only inmates showing symptoms of the virus. New York’s Department of Corrections said its policy of only testing prisoners who show symptoms was “reflective of testing procedures in the general public.”

Tennessee took an aggressive approach after a dozen inmates tested positive at the Bledsoe County Correctional Complex in the city of Pikeville last week. The state's Department of Correction has tested 3,503 prisoners at Bledsoe, the Northwest Correctional Complex and the Turney Center Industrial Complex.

“It’s what makes the pandemic more difficult to manage,” said Marc Stern, former medical director for the Washington State Department of Corrections and a faculty member at the University of Washington’s School of Public Health. “There are a whole lot of people who are asymptomatic.”

After a recent spike in cases at the Neuse Correctional Institution in Goldsboro, North Carolina, state correctional officials tested all 723 prisoners last week. Of the 444 who were infected by the virus, 98% were asymptomatic, the state’s department of public safety said. One inmate has died at the prison.

Similarly, mass testing at two Arkansas prisons -- the Cummins Unit in the city of Grady and the Community Correction Center in the state capital Little Rock -- found 751 infected inmates, almost all of them asymptomatic, the state corrections department said. It did not provide the total number of inmates who were tested.

Arkansas’ prisons have faced contagious disease outbreaks before, such as scabies and chickenpox, but those episodes were easier to manage because inmates showed overt symptoms, said Arkansas Department of Corrections spokeswoman Dina Tyler. “But with this virus, you have no idea because so many are asymptomatic. It makes it very challenging to contain,” she said.

‘24-HOUR TURNAROUND IS CRUCIAL’

Michigan’s Lakeland Correctional Facility houses some of the state’s oldest and most medically frail prisoners. When coronavirus cases surged, the prison saw a spike in infections and deaths. As of April 23, nine Lakeland inmates had died from COVID-19, accounting for a third of the deaths across Michigan’s 29 state prisons.

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Nearly half of Lakeland’s 1,400 prisoners suffer from chronic underlying health conditions, according to state data. Many are in wheelchairs, and the minimum-security facility in southern Michigan has its own geriatric unit for its large elderly population.

On Tuesday, the prison tested all 400 inmates in the geriatric ward and plans to test the rest of the facility by the end of the week. Of the 971 tested so far, 642, or about 66%, were positive. A state official declined to disclose how many were asymptomatic.

“We know mass testing is going to make our numbers spike and might make us look bad,” said Chris Gautz, spokesman for the Michigan Department of Corrections. “But I don’t think there’s another prison system in the country that doesn’t have large numbers. They just might not be testing as rigorously as we are.”

All tested inmates are quarantined in their rooms or units pending the test results, which usually come back in a day, he said. “The 24-hour turnaround is crucial” because once an inmate tests negative, they can return to the general population, he said.

In the seven state prison systems conducting mass tests, 49 inmates have died.

As the coronavirus spreads behind bars, rights groups and public defenders say they fear more will succumb, and have pressed for the release of nonviolent older and medically high-risk inmates. While thousands have been let out, crowded, often unsanitary conditions have raised concerns that jails and prisons could become vectors for the disease.

“They’re worse than landlocked cruise ships,” Stern, the corrections expert, said, referring to stranded cruise ships that have been overwhelmed by coronavirus infections.

(Linda So reported from Washington and Grant Smith from New York. Additional reporting by Brad Heath. Editing by Jason Szep)

Our standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Big Karma

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3315 on: April 27, 2020, 08:00:39 AM »
What Soul Crusher posted, adds a lot of weight to "the scam is in the testing" claim.

Soul Crusher

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3316 on: April 27, 2020, 08:18:00 AM »
Why No COVID-19 Models Have Been Accurate, And How To Fix That
The Federalist ^ | April 27, 2020 | Jon McCloskey



The decisions that are being made during this crisis are far too important and complex to be based on such imprecise data and with such unreliable results.

There’s been a lot of armchair analysis about various models being used to predict outcomes of COVID-19. For those of us who have built spatial and statistical models, all of this discussion brings to mind George Box’s dictum, “All models are wrong, but some are useful”—or useless, as the case may be.

The problem with data-driven models, especially when data is lacking, can be easily explained. First of all, in terms of helping decision makers make quality decisions, statistical hypothesis testing and data analysis is just one tool in a large tool box.

It’s based on what we generally call reductionist theory. In short, the tool examines parts of a system (usually by estimating an average or mean) and then makes inferences to the whole system. The tool is usually quite good at testing hypotheses under carefully controlled experimental conditions.

For example, the success of the pharmaceutical industry is, in part, due to the fact that they can design and implement controlled experiments in a laboratory. However, even under controlled experimental procedures, the tool has limitations and is subject to sampling error. In reality, the true mean (the true number or answer we are seeking) is unknowable because we cannot possibly measure everything or everybody, and model estimates always have a certain amount of error.

These Models Are Unreliable

Simple confidence intervals can provide good insight into the precision and reliability, or usefulness, of the part estimated by reductionist models. With the COVID-19 models, the so-called “news” appears to be using either the confidence interval from one model or actual estimated values (i.e., means) from different models as a way of reporting a range of the “predicted” number of people who may contract or die from the disease (e.g., 60,000 to 2 million).

Either way, the range in estimates is quite large and useless, at least for helping decision makers make such key decisions about our health, economy, and civil liberties. The armchair analysts’ descriptions about these estimates show how clueless they are of even the simplest of statistical interpretation.

The fact is, when a model has a confidence interval as wide as those reported, the primary conclusion is that the model is imprecise and unreliable. Likewise, if these wide ranges are coming from estimated means of several different models, it clearly indicates a lack of repeatability (i.e., again, a lack of precision and reliability).

Either way, these types of results are an indication of bias in the data, which can come from many sources (such as not enough data, measurement error, reporting error, using too many variables, etc.). For the COVID-19 models, most of the data appears to come from large population centers like New York. This means the data sample is biased, which makes the entire analysis invalid for making any inferences outside of New York or, at best, areas without similar population density.

It would be antithetical to the scientific method if such data were used to make decisions in, for example, Wyoming or rural Virginia. While these models can sometimes provide decision makers useful information, the decisions that are being made during this crisis are far too important and complex to be based on such imprecise data. There are volumes of scientific literature that explain the limitations of reductionist methods, if the reader wishes to investigate this further.

Despite Unreliability, Models Influence Huge Decisions

Considering the limitations of this tool under controlled laboratory conditions, imagine what happens within more complex systems that encompass large areas, contain millions of people, and vary with time (such as seasonal or annual changes). In fact, for predicting outcomes within complex and adaptive and dynamic systems, where controlled experiments are not possible, data is lacking, and large amounts of uncertainty exist, the reductionists’ tool is not useful.

Researchers who speak as if their answers to such complex and uncertain problems are unquestionable and who politicize issues like COVID-19 are by definition pseudo-scientists. In fact, the scientific literature (including research from a Nobel Prize winner) shows that individual “experts” are no better than laymen at making quality decisions within systems characterized by complexity and uncertainty.

The pseudo-scientists want to hide this fact. They like to simplify reality by ignoring or hiding the tremendous amount of uncertainty inherent in these models. They do this for many reasons: it’s easier to explain cause/effect relationships, it’s easier to “predict” consequences (that’s why most of their predictions are wrong or always changing), and it’s easier to identify “victims” and “villains.”

They accomplish this by first asking the wrong questions. For COVID-19, the relevant question is not, “How many people will die?” a divisive and impossible question to answer, but “What can we do to avoid, reduce, and mitigate this disease without destroying our economy and civil rights?”

If the Assumptions Are Wrong, Everything Else Is
Secondly, pseudo-scientists hide and ignore the assumptions inherent in these models. The assumptions are the premise of any model; if the assumptions are violated or invalid, the entire model is invalid. Transparency is crucial to a useful model and for building trust among the public. In short, whether a model is useful or useless has more to do with a person’s values than science.

The empirical evidence is clear: what’s really needed is good thinking by actual people, not technology, to identify and choose quality alternatives. Technology will not solve these issues and should only be used as aids and tools (and only if they are transparent and reliable as possible).

What is needed, and what the scientific method has always required but is nowadays often ignored, is what is called multiple working hypotheses. In laymen’s terms, this simply means that we include experts and stakeholders with different perspectives, ideas, and experiences.

Models Cannot Give Answers Alone

The type of modeling that is needed to make quality decisions for the COVID-19 crisis is what we modelers call participatory scenario modeling. This method uses Decision Science tools like Bayesian networks and Multiple Objective Decision Analysis that explicitly link data with the knowledge and opinions of a diverse mix of subject matter experts. The method uses a systems, not a reductionist, approach and seeks to help the decision maker weigh the available options and alternatives.

For COVID-19, we likely need a set of models for medical and economic decisions that augment final decision-support models that help the decision makers weigh their options.

The steps are: frame the question appropriately, develop quality alternatives, evaluate the alternatives, and plan accordingly (i.e., make the decision). The key is participation from a diverse set of subject-matter experts from interdisciplinary backgrounds working together to build scenario models that help decision makers assess the decision options in terms of probability of the possible outcomes.

Certain models, such as COVID-19, require a diverse set of experts, whereas climate change models require participation from stakeholders and experts. The participatory nature of the process makes assumptions more transparent, helps people better understand the issues, and builds trust among competing interests.

For COVID-19, we likely need a set of models for medical and economic decisions that augment final decision-support models that help the decision makers weigh their options. No experienced decision maker would (or should) rely on any one model or any one subject-matter expert when making complex decisions with so much uncertainty and so much at stake.

Pseudo-scientists only allow participation from subject-matter experts who agree with their agenda. In other words, they often rig the participatory models. I’m not saying this is occurring with COVID-19, but it has happened before and could happen again.

friedchickendinner

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3317 on: April 27, 2020, 08:23:06 AM »
Just shows that those convicts are hard to kill

Soul Crusher

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3318 on: April 27, 2020, 08:25:50 AM »
Just shows that those convicts are hard to kill

Shows how this thing is not dangerous at all to most people at all. 

harmankardon1

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3319 on: April 27, 2020, 08:31:22 AM »
Shows how this thing is not dangerous at all to most people at all.

Yeah I turn on the news, and I'm like are they still going on with this shit....

friedchickendinner

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3320 on: April 27, 2020, 08:33:41 AM »
Shows how this thing is not dangerous at all to most people at all.

Right, but that was true 2 months ago so Im not sure about your big discovery here and how its relevant to anything


Soul Crusher

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3321 on: April 27, 2020, 08:40:21 AM »
Right, but that was true 2 months ago so Im not sure about your big discovery here and how its relevant to anything

Its simple - most of us have either been exposed or dealt with this.  Carrying on with this crap lockdown nonsense is doing far more harm

pellius

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3322 on: April 27, 2020, 08:42:01 AM »
Take it EASY there partner. I know youre salty over being stuck at home another month (and counting) but theres no need to be inhospitable. Relax, take a deep breath, and just be glad you didnt die trying to steal a catalytic converter.

Man dies when car he was allegedly trying to steal from falls on top of him
February 22, 2020 at 11:57 PM HST - Updated February 23 at 5:01 AM
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (WDAF/CNN) - Police are investigating after a Missouri man was crushed to death by a car while allegedly trying to steal a part from it.

The incident happened Friday morning in a Kansas City, Missouri, parking lot and involved a Toyota Prius. The owner of the Prius, who did not want to be identified, says he was at work when he learned his car had crushed a man.

A person in another vehicle tried to lift the Prius off the man using a jack, according to the car’s owner, but the victim died at the scene.

Authorities say the man was trying to steal the car’s catalytic converter, a device that reduces toxic gases and pollutants from a vehicle’s exhaust system.
James Garten, a service adviser at KC Complete Auto, says Pruis’ catalytic converters contain valuable metals like palladium, rhodium and platinum, and thieves can make a quick buck off them.

“When it comes to catalytic converters being stolen, it’s a common occurrence,” Garten said. “They take them to different scrapyards, and they will scrap them out. Nowadays, a lot of scrapyards will take catalytic converters, but you have to supply thedm with titles.”

I'm neither salty or inhospitable and I'm quite relaxed. I don't know why you don't think it is a fair question. She made a claim that Trump was incompetent and I asked for an example as to why she thinks that.

friedchickendinner

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3323 on: April 27, 2020, 08:44:20 AM »
Its simple - most of us have either been exposed or dealt with this.  Carrying on with this crap lockdown nonsense is doing far more harm

Most haven't.

You can't compare a spread in prison with the outside world.

Soul Crusher

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Re: Coronavirus - We are all screwed - discuss
« Reply #3324 on: April 27, 2020, 08:48:26 AM »
Most haven't.

You can't compare a spread in prison with the outside world.

The doom and gloom and we are all gonna die models have not happened.