Coronavirus - Stock Market Crash / Economic Impact

[Thin Lizzy]

The stock that has held up the best in this debacle has been Walmart. That tells you where we’re going. Lotta people buying cheap food and $1 socks.


The old school bodybuilding diet wins again:

Chicken
Eggs
Potatoes
Oatmeal
Rice
Greens

Mix and match

Rinse and repeat

[FitnessFrenzy]

S&P 500 is up over 6 % today. I don't see how this could be a bottom. I could be wrong, but I think the stock market bottom has not been reached yet.

[FitnessFrenzy]

gold is also up 4.7% today. This is not following the normal logic (stocks and gold both up hugely on the same day). Something is not right.

[TheGrinch]

S&P 500 is up over 6 % today. I don't see how this could be a bottom. I could be wrong, but I think the stock market bottom has not been reached yet.

I think it just depends on whether we are now in a 1-2 year recession or this was a huge fake move to shake out any scared money before we zoom higher

[Flexacon]

ftse 100 up 9% today which seems strange given London is on the brink of a worse disaster than Northern Italy.

[Mayday]

S&P 500 is up over 6 % today. I don't see how this could be a bottom. I could be wrong, but I think the stock market bottom has not been reached yet.

It went up as Trump was in discussions with major hedge funds. The rally was based around his comment of opening up the economy earlier than 6 months..... it's the market squeezing the shorts pretty much.

We are in the phase of winding down, almost at lockdown point in week 3 of anywhere from a 12-26 week timeline. We aren't even remotely close to really hurting on that timeline.

Without making it long winded. The market has not yet factored in the consumer market being proper fucked, mass unemployment combined with business debt defaults, closures, defaulted property collapse. These things are coming in April and May.

Right now they are propping up the market.
Next phase is market & people which is waaaaaay more expensive.
QE will explode.

[che]

It went up as Trump was in discussions with major hedge funds. The rally was based around his comment of opening up the economy earlier than 6 months..... it's the market squeezing the shorts pretty much.

We are in the phase of winding down, almost at lockdown point in week 3 of anywhere from a 12-26 week timeline. We aren't even remotely close to really hurting on that timeline.

Without making it long winded. The market has not yet factored in the consumer market being proper fucked, mass unemployment combined with business debt defaults, closures, defaulted property collapse. These things are coming in April and May.

Right now they are propping up the market.
Next phase is market & people which is waaaaaay more expensive.
QE will explode.

Damn , you are really smart bro  ,I bet you are rich as fuck .

[Mayday]

Damn , you are really smart bro  ,I bet you are rich as fuck .

I do well, yes.

Talking macro sense is easy on a long timeline. Shorten the timeline whilst maintaining accuracy is everything though.

Why do you think banks always win? They are the most accurate over a shorter timeline and are accurate based on the right reasons.

Now, i could post some fuckwittery stuff on here like many do, but instead i try and provide solid explanations as to why and how things work.   Or i may be full of shit.

[blackpele]

Hey Mayday, do you think the virus came from the bats or escaped from a lab? Also do you see a massive social unrest in Europe and US? I don't think the measures are enough for all those people who were just getting by.....
 By the way I checked your older posts.......great points!

[FitnessFrenzy]

[SOMEPARTS]

I do well, yes.

Talking macro sense is easy on a long timeline. Shorten the timeline whilst maintaining accuracy is everything though.

Why do you think banks always win? They are the most accurate over a shorter timeline and are accurate based on the right reasons.

Now, i could post some fuckwittery stuff on here like many do, but instead i try and provide solid explanations as to why and how things work.   Or i may be full of shit.

Banks win because they make the laws and own the game.

[TheGrinch]

Banks win because they make the laws and own the game.

Fed loans to banks @ 0%

SBA "Emergency Disaster" loans  @ 3.75 %

Game Over...lol

[FitnessFrenzy]

[Mayday]

Hey Mayday, do you think the virus came from the bats or escaped from a lab? Also do you see a massive social unrest in Europe and US? I don't think the measures are enough for all those people who were just getting by.....
 By the way I checked your older posts.......great points!

Don't know but i think given it's China and the epicentre just happens to be next door to their disease lab, it's not a good look.

I think it's possible the world might call an early win on the numbers and unwind earlier than planned. I believe they underestimate the impact of a.shutdown (US unemployment last week of 3.3M vs 0.75M forecast proves that), i think they have underdone the QE whilst closed and i reckon they will shit their pants trying to kickstart an economy with peanuts.

As for unrest, they can't allow it to get to a mass unrest stage because that defeafs the purpose of a lockdown and social distancing. It'll open back up if they hear rumblings as that would be political suicide if rioting erupted.

I believe the infected numbers are waaaay bigger than diagnosed. 500x or more. 8000 sick people go to a hospital and 40 are positive.... that shows your testing is faulty.

[Thin Lizzy]

Banks win because they make the laws and own the game.

The reason banks win in a situation like this is because they get first dibs on the money being printed. They can use it to buy assets before inflation sets in.

[SOMEPARTS]

8000 sick people go to a hospital and 40 are positive.... that shows your testing is faulty.

Or....just maybe.....40 are positive and 7,960 have colds and flu and were scared shitless by the news and imagined they had it.

This is getting like the radio broadcast of War Of The Worlds. People who don't think much are not able to get this much fear all day and process it.

[Mayday]

Or....just maybe.....40 are positive and 7,960 have colds and flu and were scared shitless by the news and imagined they had it.

This is getting like the radio broadcast of War Of The Worlds. People who don't think much are not able to get this much fear all day and process it.

We were in Summer with 30+ degree days and half the CBD were walking around with the flu. Our local medical centre went from walk in appointments to waiting for 5 days.  

I do know of a group of 25 people who had a party and 2 of the 25yr olds were hospitalised and confirmed positive. The other 23 all got sick to varying degrees but were fine. Those 23 are not in the diagnosed numbers because they were not tested.

The issue with going down the path of your 'just maybe' is you must believe so many other things in which the odds are all tiny that for it to be true you have the odds of winning the lottery.

Eg if you believe 7,960 people don't have the coronavirus you must believe that there is a virus 200x more transmittable than the coronavirus and it going undetected by the media, by govts, by the WHO. By extension you would need to believe all experts were incorrect about the transmission rates. And so on.

It's far, far more plausible to say the tests are shit because it still acknowledges the coronavirus is real and active. Going down the 'just maybe' means you are wearing a tinfoil hat diving miles down the rabbit hole.

[FitnessFrenzy]

[IroNat]

The reason banks win in a situation like this is because they get first dibs on the money being printed. They can use it to buy assets before inflation sets in.

The spread between what the bank pays for money and what they loan it out.

[SOMEPARTS]

We were in Summer with 30+ degree days and half the CBD were walking around with the flu. Our local medical centre went from walk in appointments to waiting for 5 days.  

I do know of a group of 25 people who had a party and 2 of the 25yr olds were hospitalised and confirmed positive. The other 23 all got sick to varying degrees but were fine. Those 23 are not in the diagnosed numbers because they were not tested.

The issue with going down the path of your 'just maybe' is you must believe so many other things in which the odds are all tiny that for it to be true you have the odds of winning the lottery.

Eg if you believe 7,960 people don't have the coronavirus you must believe that there is a virus 200x more transmittable than the coronavirus and it going undetected by the media, by govts, by the WHO. By extension you would need to believe all experts were incorrect about the transmission rates. And so on.

It's far, far more plausible to say the tests are shit because it still acknowledges the coronavirus is real and active. Going down the 'just maybe' means you are wearing a tinfoil hat diving miles down the rabbit hole.

You have one story with the fact being....2 people tested positive...I'm assuming those were people that needed hospital care. The rest about all 25 having it is your speculation isn't it?

Now maybe all 25 did have it but do we really need to test everyone in the world when they say 50-60% of the world population will get this in the next year? Do we really need to test everyone when a small percentage need to go to the hospital? When by the powers that be's own admission the current "treatment" for most is to sit in your house sick like you have the flu?

I just don't see any logic here.

[Megalodon]

Who else but Bloomberg to remind us that the Black Death was good for the economy...





Black Death burial, not to be confused with H. R. Giger artwork:

[Mayday]

Do we really need to test everyone when a small percentage need to go to the hospital?

I just don't see any logic here.

Yes, because there is a massive difference between a 0.5% mortality rate and an 5% mortality rate with regards to what action is required.

Wide and accurate testing also provides legitimacy of the worse case scenario we are in where the globe is shut down.

The people on here questioning the authenticity of the crisis you can't blame. The see tiny numbers and wonder WTF is going on, hence their comparisons to the flu season.

That is the logic you were unable to see  -->  test more, numbers get larger, validate the response/action.

[Thin Lizzy]

I explained how the testing scam works and was proven right. If you’re still buying into the bullshit you’re just a fucking Mark and beyond help.

I know how this plays out. To justify these interventions, they’re going to have to artificially bump up the victim numbers to the point where somebody gets hit by a truck and turns out to have a positive corona test is said to have died of corona.

Why have so many coronavirus patients died in Italy?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

BySarah Newey,
 GLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY CORRESPONDENT
23 March 2020

According to Prof Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health, the country’s mortality rate is far higher due to demographics - the nation has the second oldest population worldwide - and the manner in which hospitals record deaths.


“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus

“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.

[FitnessFrenzy]

[honest]

The black death killed the working population pushing up wages, this is killing the old retired generation, big difference.