Coronavirus - Model was wrong and drastically downgrades projections

[Princess L]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential death toll on Wednesday.

[SOMEPARTS]

Yep, called it...as soon as they pass that multi-trillion dollar garbage bill we start "winning the war" against this very, very deadly virus.

[Dave D]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential death toll on Wednesday.

How many millions have to die before we realize these doctors test their theories multiple times before governments take their thoughts into consideration?

This doctor wasn’t alone right? An individual was able to create all this panic?

[Princess L]

How many millions have to die before we realize these doctors test their theories multiple times before governments take their thoughts into consideration?

This doctor wasn’t alone right? An individual was able to create all this panic?

YES

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday. Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve. Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

https://www.lucianne.com/2020/03/26/epidemiologist_behind_highly-cited_brcoronavirus_model_admits_he_was_wrongbr_drastically_revises_model_30431.html

[Princess L]

Trump may end up STILL being 'spot on' when he said this would be like the flu.

That's gonna be fun to watch.   

[Flexacon]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential death toll on Wednesday.

This has nothing to do with his model being wrong. The 500,000 UK deaths and 2.2 million US deaths were assuming worst case scenarios if no action were taken. Action however has been taken so now you add those to the model, plus any other new data.

No offence, but you need to read and understand both papers before commenting on this.

[oldschoolfan]

what simply blows my mind is, these media cock roaches , do not talk about how many people in the same  time frame have dies from flue,and other shit. i bet the numbers are much higher.

[Dave D]

This has nothing to do with his model being wrong. The 500,000 UK deaths and 2.2 million US deaths were assuming worst case scenarios if no action were taken. Action however has been taken so now you add those to the model, plus any other new data.

No offence, but you need to read and understand both papers before commenting on this.

Wait so he didn’t admit he was wrong?

He’s a hero for getting the governments to take action?

The media is lying but now they’re blaming Dr. Ferguson?

[Mayday]

Thankyou for posting that.

Im struggling to believe we shut down the globe on a glitch.....  so what gives?

[Al Doggity]

YES

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday. Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve. Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

https://www.lucianne.com/2020/03/26/epidemiologist_behind_highly-cited_brcoronavirus_model_admits_he_was_wrongbr_drastically_revises_model_30431.html

Note bolded. He made several predictions based on different courses of action in that paper.

Whole thing can be found here:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

If this backtracking is set off your tin hat sensors, then you should check out page 15.

[Dave D]

Note bolded. He made several predictions based on different courses of action in that paper.

Whole thing can be found here:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

If this backtracking is set off your tin hat sensors, then you should check out page 15.

Why is the media publishing misleading articles?

The headline clearly states he drastically reduced his model, if his original projections included results based or action/no action why are they misleading the public?

[Flexacon]

Wait so he didn’t admit he was wrong?

He’s a hero for getting the governments to take action?

The media is lying but now they’re blaming Dr. Ferguson?

He admitted he was wrong with the assumed rate of infection. It's actually higher now than in his model so if anything social distancing and lockdown measures needed to happen earlier.

[IroNat]

This has nothing to do with his model being wrong. The 500,000 UK deaths and 2.2 million US deaths were assuming worst case scenarios if no action were taken. Action however has been taken so now you add those to the model, plus any other new data.

No offence, but you need to read and understand both papers before commenting on this.

His projection was based on incorrect data.

>

"After just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, crediting lockdown measures, but also revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured.

Ferguson explained, “I should admit, we’ve always been sensitive in the analysis in the modeling to a variety of levels or values to those quantities. What we’ve been seeing, though, in Europe in the last week or two is a rate of growth of the epidemic which was faster than we expected from early data in China. And so we are revising our quotes, our central best estimate of the reproduction… something more, a little bit above of the order of three or a little bit above rather than about 2.5.” He added, “the current values are still within the wide range of values which modeling groups [unintelligible] we should have been looking at previously.”

A higher rate of transmission than expected means that more people have the virus than previously expected; when the number of those with coronavirus is divided by the number of deaths, therefore, the mortality rate for the disease drops.

[Flexacon]

Why is the media publishing misleading articles?

The headline clearly states he drastically reduced his model, if his original projections included results based or action/no action why are they misleading the public?

Trump wants the idiots to go back to work and they seem happy and willing.

Americans are in for a rude awakening. 9/11 and hurricane katrina will be remembered as fond memories once this is done.

I have it on good authority that the media won't spare us when it comes to news coverage of the horrors that await. It's almost like they want the entire population walking around with PTSD.

[Flexacon]

His projection was based on incorrect data.

>

See my post above this.

The R value doesn't change the predicted number of deaths if no measures are taken.

[chaos]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential death toll on Wednesday.

Whaaaaaa? Nobody tell Army of Panic and friends.

[Flexacon]

A higher rate of transmission than expected means that more people have the virus than previously expected; when the number of those with coronavirus is divided by the number of deaths, therefore, the mortality rate for the disease drops.

This just means herd immunity is achieved faster and things get back to normal quicker if distancing and other measures are taken when needed.

[prowlermaniac]

So just a big overreaction for financial gain?  Sounds about right

[Princess L]

Trump wants the idiots to go back to work and they seem happy and willing.

Americans are in for a rude awakening. 9/11 and hurricane katrina will be remembered as fond memories once this is done.

I have it on good fake news authority that the MSM won't spare us when it comes to news coverage of the horrors that await. It's almost like they want the entire population walking around with PTSD.

Fixed

[el numero uno]

The title of the article was so misleading they actually had to change it.

Correction: The original title of this article incorrectly suggested that Neil Ferguson stated his initial model was wrong. The article has been revised to make clear that he provided a downgraded projection given the new data and current mitigation steps.

1. He was wrong about the rate of reproduction, which he now estimates around 3 rather than 2.5. This means there are more infected people. Since there are more infected people the mortality rate automatically decreases. But we're talking about a reduction in relative terms, not a reduction in absolute terms if lock down measures were not taken.

2. The revision takes into account the lock down. That's why the number of deaths plummets.

PD: It's worth to point out that the criticism to the model by Oxford Professor states that the high incidence will trigger herd inmunity sooner, and thus lead to fewer deaths.

[Army of One]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential death toll on Wednesday.

Lol.The previous figures were based on not shutting down the entire world, something that has never been done throughout human history.You can weld everyone in their homes theoretically and crime on the streets would go to near zero, but good luck with the rest of the aspects of society.Possibly they can balance lockdowns with keeping the economy semi functioning, but that remains to be seen.Truly Uncharted territory.

[Dave D]

Trump wants the idiots to go back to work and they seem happy and willing.

Americans are in for a rude awakening. 9/11 and hurricane katrina will be remembered as fond memories once this is done.

I have it on good authority that the media won't spare us when it comes to news coverage of the horrors that await. It's almost like they want the entire population walking around with PTSD.

The media won’t spare us the horrors? Have they ever? I have seen some very graphic images on broadcast television. The internet holds nothing back.

People are going to die or they can survive and end up homeless and destitute? Those are the choices presented to us. Given the amount of people unemployed and the grim reality that that picture paints death is the less scary option.

Again I know a common thought is why isn’t this virus wiping out the “undesirables”, the homeless and impoverished, (maybe we are to early into the cycle) and those who aren’t practicing lockdown/shelter in place? As reported we can expect 70-80% of the US to become infected, many are willing to take their chances.


Also you’re not really going out on limb comparing area specific events and to a worldwide pandemic.
 
Thank your source.

[el numero uno]

Did any of you guys read the article? Wth

[Flexacon]

The media won’t spare us the horrors? Have they ever? I have seen some very graphic images on broadcast television. The internet holds nothing back.

People are going to die or they can survive and end up homeless and destitute? Those are the choices presented to us. Given the amount of people unemployed and the grim reality that that picture paints death is the less scary option.

Again I know a common thought is why isn’t this virus wiping out the “undesirables”, the homeless and impoverished, (maybe we are to early into the cycle) and those who aren’t practicing lockdown/shelter in place? As reported we can expect 70-80% of the US to become infected, many are willing to take their chances.

 
Thank your source.

There is a big difference between getting back to work thinking this is all just fake news and getting back to work trying to do your best to minimize risk.

The asians have managed the latter, but the West for the most part seem incapable of this. Inaccurate articles like this one won't help either. Just look at some of the posts in this thread.

[Thin Lizzy]

This has nothing to do with his model being wrong. The 500,000 UK deaths and 2.2 million US deaths were assuming worst case scenarios if no action were taken. Action however has been taken so now you add those to the model, plus any other new data.

No offence, but you need to read and understand both papers before commenting on this.

Yes, where would we be were it not for the swift action taken by the mayor of New York City, which as we all know is the epicenter of the virus?




Bill de Blasio
@BilldeBlasio
Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus, I thought I would offer some suggestions. Here’s the first: thru Thurs 3/5 go see “The Traitor”
@FilmLinc
. If “The Wire” was a true story + set in Italy, it would be this film.
8:16 PM · Mar 2, 2020