Coronavirus - Model was wrong and drastically downgrades projections

[basil]

This has nothing to do with his model being wrong. The 500,000 UK deaths and 2.2 million US deaths were assuming worst case scenarios if no action were taken. Action however has been taken so now you add those to the model, plus any other new data.

No offence, but you need to read and understand both papers before commenting on this.

Absolutely.  There has been a drastic shift in human behaviour on a global basis since govs and public health officials began awareness campaigns.  Entire countries shutting down and drastically restricting physical contact .  1.3 billion in India currently under lockdown orders, for one example. 

[Dave D]

There is a big difference between getting back to work thinking this is all just fake news and getting back to work trying to do your best to minimize risk.

The asians have managed the latter, but the West for the most part seem incapable of this. Inaccurate articles like this one won't help either. Just look at some of the posts in this thread.

Bro every time I’ve posted I’ve referenced the original post. Read the original link, it says the Doctor admits he was wrong, put the article says nothing like that.

My point this whole time has been we are making decisions based off of media spin.

[Thin Lizzy]

Not only was the model wrong but the tests are shit. The only thing was wasn’t botched was the money printing. What world governments have printed so far is equal to the GDP of Japan.


 For those who don’t know Spanish it says “Tests no workey Amigo.”




New York Is Making Its Own Coronavirus Test After The CDC’s Tests Have Repeatedly Failed

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/danvergano/coronavirus-test-new-york-cdc



https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-25/los-test-rapidos-de-coronavirus-comprados-en-china-no-funcionan.html

LA CRISIS DEL CORONAVIRUS

Los test rápidos de coronavirus comprados en China no funcionan bien
Los laboratorios de microbiología comunican que las pruebas que adquirió el Gobierno tienen una sensibilidad del 30% cuando deberían superar el 80

[Thin Lizzy]

Absolutely.  There has been a drastic shift in human behaviour on a global basis since govs and public health officials began awareness campaigns.  Entire countries shutting down and drastically restricting physical contact .  1.3 billion in India currently under lockdown orders, for one example.  

Dude I just posted a tweet from the fucking mayor of New York City on March 2 encouraging people to go out despite corona. There was nothing done in New York City for December, January and February.

Here’s a radical idea, how about some of you motherfuckers admit you got worked.

[Army of One]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential death toll on Wednesday.

He just clarified.

[Necrosis]

The US has mishandled this terribly lol.

Trump is such a tool.

US has now surpassed China, the epicenter ahaha.

why do people support this guy? he literally said this is a hoax.

[basil]

Dude I just posted a tweet from the fucking mayor of New York City on March 2 encouraging people to go out despite corona. There was nothing done in New York City for December, January and February.

Here’s a radical idea, how about some of you motherfuckers admit you got worked.

You misunderstood me.  I think the US is fcuked b/c of those that carried on as per normal while the asians, for example, took it seriously and realized major risk reduction as a result.  I’m saying that his model is still valid under the assumptions it was based on, primarily no significant change in behaviour.  

[IroNat]

This just means herd immunity is achieved faster and things get back to normal quicker if distancing and other measures are taken when needed.

Herd immunity only happens if the herd is infected and fights off the infection.

Some of the herd dies.  Most of the herd lives.

Isolation and social distancing delays the development of herd immunity.

[Flexacon]

Bro every time I’ve posted I’ve referenced the original post. Read the original link, it says the Doctor admits he was wrong, put the article says nothing like that.

My point this whole time has been we are making decisions based off of media spin.

If a virus spreads and eventually infects 80% of the population with no measures in place before burning out, then the difference in rates doesn't  matter.

Let's say I eat a plate of spaghetti in 2.5 minutes and my belly will be 80% full. If I eat it is 3 minutes my belly will still be 80% full. No difference.

He admitted he was wrong about the rate the virus spread. He used Chinese numbers which was around 2.5, it now looks more like 3. This however doesn't change his original 500k or 2.2m claim

[IroNat]

The US has mishandled this terribly lol.

Trump is such a tool.

US has now surpassed China, the epicenter ahaha.

why do people support this guy? he literally said this is a hoax.

China is not reporting their numbers.  Their numbers have hardly changed in past couple weeks. 

[IroNat]

If a virus spreads and eventually infects 80% of the population with no measures in place before burning out, then the difference in rates doesn't  matter.

Let's say I eat a plate of spaghetti in 2.5 minutes and my belly will be 80% full. If I eat it is 3 minutes my belly will still be 80% full. No difference.

He admitted he was wrong about the rate the virus spread. He used Chinese numbers which was around 2.5, it now looks more like 3. This however doesn't change his original 500k or 2.2m claim

Sure it does.  He even says it.

His original projection predicted a very high death rate per thousand.

His revised projection lowers the rate per thousand tremendously.

The rate per thousand goes way down because he underestimated how many people are infected.  

If you think 100 people are infected and 5 die you have a 5% death rate per confirmed case.

If 1000 people are actually infected and 5 die you have a .5% death rate per confirmed case.

That's how you go from 2,000,000 dying to 20,000.

It's a heckuva error but he was doing the best he could with the info available.  Still a HUGE error.

[Flexacon]

Herd immunity only happens if the herd is infected and fights off the infection.

Some of the herd dies.  Most of the herd lives.

Isolation and social distancing delays the development of herd immunity.

More of the herd can be saved with things like  social distancing, wearing masks, not taking uncessary journeys. The rate of infection we see now actually means herd immunity would happen faster than predicted originally by the model

Trust me I get it. I was all for herd immunity without restriction, but with what I've seen I've changed my mind. Far too many just don't have it in them to bounce back from something like that mentally.

[Necrosis]

China is not reporting their numbers.  Their numbers have hardly changed in past couple weeks. 

dawg, the test kits in the US are paltry, the actually number is way way higher like 2-3x higher . China can lock down like few other countries, the numbers should be going down, the curve was flattened by intense shut down, isolation etc

The US is still not taking it seriously. The end result will be a huge black eye on the US.

[IroNat]

More of the herd can be saved with things like  social distancing, wearing masks, not taking uncessary journeys. The rate of infection we see now actually means herd immunity would happen faster than predicted originally by the model

Trust me I get it. I was all for herd immunity without restriction, but with what I've seen I've changed my mind. Far too many just don't have it in them to bounce back from something like that mentally.

The revised model shows that the virus, while deadly for some (as is the flu), is not the dire situation that has been presented.

All these crazy lockdowns and shutting down business and passing a $2.2 trillion rescue plan are unnecessary.

Too late to stop the insanity.  Now we are really f*cked.

[Flexacon]

Sure it does.  He even says it.

His original projection predicted a very high death rate per thousand.

His revised projection lowers the rate per thousand tremendously.

The rate per thousand goes way down because he underestimated how many people are infected.  

If you think 100 people are infected and 5 die you have a 5% death rate per confirmed case.

If 1000 people are actually infected and 5 die you have a .5% death rate per confirmed case.

That's how you go from 2,000,000 dying to 20,000.

It's a heckuva error but he was doing the best he could with the info available.  Still a HUGE error.

The 20,000 figure is for the UK not the US. Seriously some of you need to step away from this thread. How can I put this kindly.

[Thin Lizzy]

You misunderstood me.  I think the US is fcuked b/c of those that carried on as per normal while the asians, for example, took it seriously and realized major risk reduction as a result.  I’m saying that his model is still valid under the assumptions it was based on, primarily no significant change in behaviour.  

There was no outbreak during December, January and February even with no precautions taken. The first person to die of corona in New York City was an 82-year-old woman with emphysema, in March. So if we went through the heart of flu season with no major outbreak why would there be one of the end of flu season?

All of the people you see flocking to hospitals now is the result of a self fulfilling prophecy. The nonstop 24/7 Corona hysteria  has everybody thinking that a little cough or scratchy throat means they have it.

The problem with models in general is that they almost invariably miss something that makes a huge difference.

[IroNat]

The 20,000 figure is for the UK not the US. Seriously some of you need to step away from this thread. How can I put this kindly.

My bad.

Going from 500,000 to 20,000 is a heckuva drop.  

For the US it would 2,000,000 dropping to 80,000.

A bad flu year.  .026% of the US population.

[el numero uno]

He just clarified.

That's exactly what's stated in the article.

However, the title was misleading, and Getbiggers are already celebrating, cause you know, reading an article is just too much of a hassle.

[Flexacon]

My bad.

Going from 500,000 to 20,000 is a heckuva drop.  

For the US it would 2,000,000 dropping to 80,000.

A bad flu year.  

But that drop only happens because of the lockdown and social distancing measures. With there weren't any measures then there is no drop in deaths.

[Army of One]

My bad.

Going from 500,000 to 20,000 is a heckuva drop.  

For the US it would 2,000,000 dropping to 80,000.

A bad flu year.  

He already said pretty much all the drop is down to the social distancing measures.While the numbers have changed in regard to it being easier to transmit than previously thought, it still doesn't change the lethality by much for the overall number.Read the tweet he wrote an hour ago,UK's overall mortality numbers would still be largely the same with no social distancing in place.And to call the virus nothing is insane.Todays final number will likely have it firmly in position 1 of today's transmissible disease deaths.

[Thin Lizzy]

There is a big difference between getting back to work thinking this is all just fake news and getting back to work trying to do your best to minimize risk.

The asians have managed the latter, but the West for the most part seem incapable of this. Inaccurate articles like this one won't help either. Just look at some of the posts in this thread.

The overwhelming majority of the vulnerable don’t even work. They’re retired.

[Thin Lizzy]

He already said pretty much all the drop is down to the social distancing measures.While the numbers have changed in regard to it being easier to transmit than previously thought, it still doesn't change the lethality by much for the overall number.Read the tweet he wrote an hour ago,UK's overall mortality numbers would still be largely the same with no social distancing in place.And to call the virus nothing is insane.Todays final number will likely have it firmly in position 1 of today's transmissible disease deaths.

Come on, you can’t just assume all of those deaths are primarily from corona when almost everybody had other underlying serious health conditions like heart disease and diabetes.

You know people did die before corona. In fact, almost 3,000,000 people in the United States a year die.

I give credit where it’s due. You did a good job of identifying how big of a deal this would be, but you didn’t identify what this really is about.


Powell: Federal Reserve will not 'run out of ammunition' to protect economy | TheHill

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/489606-powell-fed-will-not-run-out-of-ammunition-to-protect-economy

[Flexacon]

The overwhelming majority of the vulnerable don’t even work. They’re retired.

And when all the 40 and 50 yearolds who are obese, smoke, drink etc need hospital treatment to recover from the virus, but there aren't enough beds, doctors and nurses available to treat them. What happens to them?

[Army of One]

Come on, you can’t just assume all of those deaths are primarily from corona when almost everybody had other underlying serious health conditions like heart disease and diabetes.

You know people did die before corona. In fact, almost 3,000,000 people in the United States a year die.

I give credit where it’s due. You did a good job of identifying how big of a deal this would be, but you didn’t identify what this really is about.


Powell: Federal Reserve will not 'run out of ammunition' to protect economy | TheHill

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/489606-powell-fed-will-not-run-out-of-ammunition-to-protect-economy

Aids doesn't kill anyone either, it's the infections they get when aids lowers their tcell count to low levels.Regular flu doesn't kill you directly, it's usually pnuemonia that finishes you off because you cant clear mucus as well due to the flu, which causes bacteria to build up.Do you want to rewrite the rulebook for every disease to fit the agenda?

[Thin Lizzy]

Aids doesn't kill anyone either, it's the infections they get when aids lowers their tcell count to low levels.Regular flu doesn't kill you directly, it's usually pnuemonia that finishes you off because you cant clear mucus as well due to the flu, which causes bacteria to build up.Do you want to rewrite the rulebook for every disease to fit the agenda?

You can keep chasing the story all you want, the politicians in Washington have moved on. All they care about right now is spending the money.

The mayor and governor in New York didn’t give a shit about corona until word came down that there was gonna be a stimulus package. At that point, it became the most important thing in the world and nobody could get within 6 feet of each other.